Sugar Insight
Commodity Research Desk
17 May 2016
Sugar: Technical Recommendation
Commodity
Sugar ICE
Sugar NCDEX
Contract
Jul-16
Jul-16
S2
16.40
3525
S1
16.63
3532
CMP
16.89
3540
R1
17.03
3548
R2
17.16
3555
Recommendation
Buy at 16.72-16.70 TP 17.20 SL 15.45
Trading range 3520 - 3560
Sugar future market updates: Prices( Rs/Quintal)
Exchange
Sugar M ( NCDEX )
Sugar M (NCDEX )
Contract
May-16
Jul-16
Open
3345
3536
High
3345
3551
Low
3340
3529
ICE raw sugar futures daily updates: Prices ( Cent/lb)
Exchange
Contract
Open
High
Raw Sugar ( ICE )
Jul-16
16.55
16.92
Raw Sugar ( ICE )
Oct-16
16.90
17.15
Raw Sugar ( ICE )
Mar-17
17.27
17.54
Exchange
White Sugar ( ICE )
White Sugar ( ICE )
White Sugar ( ICE )
Contract
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Open
473.60
469.20
468.60
High
481.90
477.90
476.60
Low
472.20
468.70
467.80
Last
3345
3540
Low
16.38
16.67
16.67
Last
480.70
476.70
475.70
Change(%)
0.09%
0.17%
Last
16.89
17.12
17.12
Change(%)
0.54%
0.57%
0.55%
Vol
990
5090
Change(%)
0.90%
0.77%
0.69%
Vol
2274
1055
1055
Chng(%)
-34%
-8%
Vol
47486
20920
9469
OI
1860
52870
Chng(%)
-17%
0%
Chng(%)
-0.12
-0.12
-0.09
Chng(%)
-0.40
0.13
0.13
Price Review & Market Highlights:
NCDEX sugar futures traded on positive bias tracking cues from reviving seasonal demand of sugar. Active buying by bulk
purchasers in spot market supported bullish movement of sugar at futures platform. Most active July contract closed at
Rs.3540/quintal, up by 0.17% from the previous close.
ICE raw sugar futures traded higher yesterday tracking cues from commitment of trader’s report showed rise in bullish bet for
sugar. Most traded raw sugar contract at ICE settled at 16.89cent/lb, up by 0.9% whereas white sugar contract closed at $
480.7/MT, higher by 0.5 % from the previous close.
Outlook
NCDEX sugar futures are expected to trade on mixed note during today’s session. Emerging summer season demand of
sugar may support the uptrend of sugar in coming days in terms of basis correction as sugar futures are ruling lower to the
spot prices. However, expected rise in domestic supply after imposition of stock limit regulation may keep bulk buyers away
from huge buying in expectation of fall in sugar prices. Traders can only hold 10,000 quintal of sugar stock as stockpile in
Kolkata and 5,000 quintal in other part of the country as per stock limit regulation set by government. Besides, huge
carryover stocks amid weaker export supply may support adequate supply outlook for current as well as for coming season.
Country started its 2015-16 sugar season with huge carryover stocks standing near about 90 lakh tonnes whereas total
production estimated at near about 250 to 255 lakh tonnes. Total supply of sugar looks adequate in current season against
the total consumption of 252 to 256 lakh tonnes.
At the same time, Government is mulling to lower import duty on sugar which may restrict major gains. Apart from this, sugar
futures may follow cues from latest monsoon forecast released by IMD yesterday estimated onset of monsoon to be delayed by 6-7
days
Total sugar production recorded in India till 30th April dropped by 11% Y/Y to 246.03 lakh tonnes as 276.04 Lakh tonnes of
sugar was produced during corresponding time period in last year as per Indian Sugar Mills Association. Sugar crushing
th
operations for 2015-16 Sugar season in most parts of the country have come to an end on 30 April 2016. 48 sugar mills are
still continuing their crushing operations as on date, as against 97 sugar mills which were operating on the same date last
year. Out of the 48, 35 sugar mills still operating are in Tamil Nadu. The other sugar mills are in Karnataka, Maharashtra
and Haryana, which may close in next few days. Maharashtra has produced 83.75 Lakh tons till 30th April whereas Uttar
Pradesh produced 68 Lakh tons.
Sugar Insight: A comprehensive daily covering NCDEX and NYBOT-ICE
Sugar Insight
Derivative Analysis :
Spread Analysis - Oct - July
Sugar - NCDEX PVOI
6000
3660
5000
4000
3000
3650
100
3640
80
3630
60
3620
3610
2000
3600
1000
3590
0
120
40
20
0
3580
0-Jan
6-May
9-May
OPEN_INT
10-May
11-May
Volume
12-May
13-May
Price
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Sugar Insight Sugar: Technical Recommendation