Commodities Evening Update
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
International Commodities
Content
Market Highlights
Day’s overview
Outlook
Important Events for Today
Prathamesh Mallya
Sr. Research Analyst – Non-agro commodities & Currency
prathamesh.mallya@angelbroking.com
(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134
Kaynat Chainwala
Research Analyst
kaynat.chainwala@angelbroking.com
(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136
Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.
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Commodities Evening Update
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
International Commodities
News and Analysis
• US CPI and Building permits data to be released tonight.
• UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) gained 0.3 percent in April.
• LME Copper stocks fell by 1.4 percent on Monday.
European markets are trading higher today as rising oil prices
boosted risk appetite. Asian markets are trading higher and the
US stock futures are trading in the green.
Spot gold prices are trading lower today by 0.18 percent at
$1271/oz while MCX gold prices are trading lower by 0.08
percent at Rs.29952 per 10 gms. Gold prices edged up on
Tuesday as the dollar weakened, but gains were capped as Asian
shares recovered from two-month lows. News of billionaire
investor George Soros and other big funds buying the metal for
the first time in years also supported prices.
as at 4.00 pm –17th May 2016
Performance during the day
Index
Nifty
Open
High
Low
% Chg
from Prev
day
Last
7896.85
7940.10
7879.70
7860.75
0.00
Sensex
25756.14
25927.31
25733.76
25773.61
0.47
Nikkei
16618.95
16655.89
16509.31
16652.80
1.13
Kospi
1973.86
1975.10
1962.57
1968.06
0.01
FTSE
17816.41
18014.22
17781.88
17781.88
0.51
Source: Reuters
as at 4.00 pm – 17th May 2016
Currency
Open
High
Low
Chg from
Prev day
Current
Dollar Index
94.55
94.58
94.36
94.535
-0.02
Euro/$ Spot
1.1318
1.1339
1.1306
1.1322
0.05
INR/$ Spot
66.8345
66.8914
66.665
66.775
-0.09
Source: Reuters
as at 4.00 pm – 17th May 2016
LME copper prices are trading lower by 0.5 percent at
$4631.5/tonne as China's investment, factory output and retail
sales all grew more slowly than expected in April. However,
sharp downside was restricted as President Xi Jinping said China
will push forward supply-side reform and increase the number of
middle-income earners after economic data for April fuelled
doubts about the economy's health. MCX copper prices are
trading lower by 0.3 percent at Rs.310.75 per kg.
WTI oil prices are trading higher by 0.42 percent at $47.89 per
barrel, while MCX oil prices are trading higher by 0.66 percent at
Rs.3200 per barrel. Oil traded at around $49 a barrel on Tuesday
within sight of a six-month high, supported by supply outages in
Nigeria, Canada and other producers that are eroding a
persistent glut. Nigerian oil output has been cut by almost 40
percent, the government said. In Canada, the sudden movement
of a wildfire prompted the evacuation of some 4,000 people
from work camps outside the oil hub of Fort McMurray.
Commodity
Unit
Open
High
Low
Last
% Chg
from
Prev
day
Spot Gold
$/oz
1273.66
1280.70
1269.1
1271.06
-0.19
Comex Gold
$/oz
1272.50
1272.50
1270.8
1271.10
-0.18
Rs/10
gms
29999.00
30074.00
29855
29928.00
-0.16
Spot Silver
$/oz
17.134
17.269
17.05
17.11
-0.09
Comex Silver
$/oz
0.17142
0.17142
0.17142
0.17142
0.00
MCX Silver –
May’16
Rs/kg
41157
41222
40907
40956
-0.08
Crude Oil Nymex –
Apr‘15
$/bbl
47.90
48.42
47.67
47.82
0.21
ICE -Brent Crude
Oil
$/bbl
49.03
49.47
48.60
48.85
-0.25
MCX Crude Oil
Mar’15
Rs/bbl
3195
3230
3186
3197
0.57
Copper LME - 3
Month
$/tonne
4656.50
4699.50
4630.00
4631.50
-0.49
Rs/kg
312.35
314.00
310.70
310.75
-0.29
$/tonne
1896.00
1907.00
1884.50
1885.00
-0.68
Rs/kg
126.15
126.75
125.60
125.85
-0.44
$/tonne
1744
1756
1736
1738
-0.46
Rs/kg
117.25
117.85
116.80
117.00
-0.47
$/tonne
8745
8785
8665
8700
0.17
Rs/kg
583.00
587.80
582.50
584.00
-0.14
$/tonne
1550.00
1564.50
1546.50
1548.50
-0.10
Rs/kg
103.45
104.15
103.40
103.45
-0.05
MCX Gold – Jun’16
MCX Copper –
Apr’16
Zinc LME - 3
Month
Zinc MCX – Apr’16
Lead LME - 3
Month
Lead MCX – Apr’16
Nickel LME - 3
Month
Nickel MCX –
Apr’16
Aluminum LME - 3
Month
Aluminum MCX –
Apr’16
17
Commodities Evening Update
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
International Commodities
Outlook
Gold prices are expected to trade sideways as minutes of the US Federal Reserve due on Wednesday will be a close watch by
investors across the globe while inflows in the ETF gold holdings will result in higher gold prices in the near term.
The outages in Nigeria and Canada are acting as a boon for oil prices, while the global glut of inventories creates bearish
sentiments, it remains to be seen how the demand side catches up in the latter half of 2016.
We expect LME Copper prices to trade lower as China’s industrial-production and investment data came in below
expectations in April, despite string of easing measures. Also, markets will now await FOMC Meeting Minutes due to be
released on Wednesday. However, sharp revival in oil prices will cushion further downside.
th
Technical Outlook for evening session – 17 May 2016 ( CMP as of 4.00 pm)
Commodity
Gold Jun’16
Unit
Rs/10 gm
Support 2
Support 1
CMP
Resistance1
Resistance 2
29700
29850
29940
30060
30170
1261.5
1267.5
1273
1279
1284.5
27180
27270
27345
27440
27550
Rs /kg
40400
40700
40900
41200
41600
$/oz
16.79
16.98
17.14
17.32
17.48
36961
37161
37362
37572
37802
Rs /bbl
3120
3160
3195
3240
3280
$/bbl
46.7
47.35
47.85
48.4
48.9
Rs /mmbtu
132
135.5
138
142
144
$/tonne
4562
4592
4635
4667
4707
Copper Jun’16
Rs /kg
305
307
310.5
313
316
Zinc May’16
Rs /kg
123.7
124.5
125.5
126.1
127
Lead May’16
Rs /kg
114.1
114.9
115.8
116.4
117.2
Aluminum May’16
Rs /kg
101.8
102.6
103.4
104
104.7
Nickel May’16
Rs /kg
565
575
583
590
598
Spot Gold
$/oz
NCDEX Gold hedge May’16
Silver May’16
Spot Silver
NCDEX Silver hedge Jun’16
Crude Oil May’16
Nymex Crude Oil May’16
Natural Gas May’16
LME Copper
Economic indicators to be released on May 17, 2016
Indicator
Country
Time (IST)
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Impact
CPI y/y
UK
2:00pm
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
High
PPI Input m/m
UK
2:00pm
0.9%
1.1%
1.2%
Medium
Building Permits
US
6:00pm
-
1.13M
1.09M
High
CPI m/m
US
6:00pm
-
0.4%
0.1%
High
Core CPI m/m
US
6:00pm
-
0.2%
0.1%
High
Housing Starts
US
6:00pm
-
1.12M
1.09M
Medium
Capacity Utilization Rate
US
6:45pm
-
75.1%
74.8%
Medium
Industrial Production m/m
US
6:45pm
-
0.3%
-0.6%
Medium