Summary Report
PHEV Grid Impacts
Technical Review Meeting
Washington, DC
March 14, 2007
PREPARED BY ENERGETICS INCORPORATED
Draft, Prepared by Energetics Incorporated
Table of Contents
1. Introduction.....................................................................................................................................1
2. Summary of Results .......................................................................................................................2
3. Red Group Results .........................................................................................................................4
4. Blue Group Results ........................................................................................................................9
5. Green Group Results....................................................................................................................15
6. Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................21
Appendix A. Agenda....................................................................................................................... A-1
Appendix B. Workshop Participant List .......................................................................................... B-1
Appendix C. Preliminary Literature Search on Key PHEV Studies ................................................ C-1
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1. I NTRODUCTION
The Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) Grid Impacts Technical
Review was held on March 14, 2007 in Washington, D.C. This technical
review was co-sponsored by the Offices of Electricity Delivery and Energy
Reliability, and Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, of the U.S.
Department of Energy. The agenda can be found in Appendix A. More
than 50 experts were in attendance to discuss the potential impacts on the
electric grid from plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. The list of participants
can be found in Appendix B.
The purposes of the meeting were to:
• Develop a common understanding of the existing studies of
potential PHEV grid impacts
• Develop a framework for further analysis by discussing alternative
market scenarios and assumptions
• Develop a priority list of unanswered questions and analysis needs
The opening plenary session included a series of presentations on the results of existing studies of the grid impacts of PHEVs.
The presenters were:
•
•
•
•
•
Dan Santini, Argonne National Laboratory, Reactions to Studies of PHEV-Electric Generation Interaction
Steve Letendre, The Prometheus Institute, Vehicle to Grid: Markets and Revenue Potential
Rob Pratt, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Potential Impacts of High Penetration of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on
the U.S. Power Grid
Dean Taylor, Southern California Edison, DOE Grid Impacts Workshop (Presented by Mark Duvall, EPRI)
Mark Duvall, Electric Power Research Institute, Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles –EPRI & Utility Perspective
These presentations can be downloaded at http://www.energetics.com/phev07/agenda.html. A list of existing studies of PHEV
grid impacts can be found in Appendix C. Please review the list and if you have additional studies to share, send them to Brian
Marchionini at bmarchionini@energetics.com.
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2. S UMMARY OF R ESULTS
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) represent an important
opportunity for addressing America’s transportation needs, including
personal vehicles, corporate fleets, and industrial vehicles like fork lifts
and trucks. The impacts of PHEVs on the electric power system depend on
many factors the most significant of which are: (1) the rate of adoption of
vehicles, (2) the manner by which users charge the batteries of the
vehicles, and (3) the extent to which they are used by utilities as
distributed energy resources.
There are many uncertainties in the rate of market adoption of PHEVs
that come from questions about technology readiness (particularly the cost
and durability of batteries), the future of fuel and electricity prices, the
future of energy and environmental policies and regulations, the future of
competing types of vehicles, the interest of government or electric utilities
in providing incentives for PHEVs, and the wide range of possibilities for
consumer, utility, and automaker acceptance.
Analysis of these conditions and possibilities can be useful to consumers and public and private decision makers in providing
information for investment strategies and public policies that affect PHEVs. However, resources for analysis of this kind are
limited so there needs to be greater coordination and collaboration among PHEV and electric system analysts to achieve
greater harmony in the scenarios and assumptions used, and in the comparability of analysis results across studies. This
meeting was an important first step in this direction.
Major Findings
♦ Because of the high degree of uncertainty about future conditions and possibilities in electric power and transportation
markets, scenario analysis can be a useful tool for exploring the potential grid and other impacts of PHEVs. There
should be (1) an upper bound scenario that uses the most favorable assumptions for PHEV technologies and consumer,
utility, and auto manufacturer support and acceptance; (2) a lower bound scenario that uses less favorable assumptions,
and (3) a family of scenarios in between the upper and lower scenarios that can be used to assess the relative merits of
alternative policies and commercialization strategies.
♦ Consumer charging preferences and behaviors is one of the greatest unknowns in assessing the potential grid impacts of
PHEVs. While it is highly desirable for users to charge their PHEVs off-peak, it is unlikely that this approach will be
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followed unless utilities disallow charging at other times or there are financial or other incentives for doing so. Analysis
should explore charging options that include (1) consumers can charge their PHEVs whenever they want, (2) consumers
can charge their PHEVs only when utilities allow, and (3) consumers can charge their PHEVs according to some
combination of 1 and 2.
♦ The electric distribution system as currently configured appears adequate for handling the early adoption phase of
PHEV market penetration. Utility adoption of advanced metering infrastructure and “smart” grid systems will enhance
the adoption of PHEVs and open possibilities for the use of PHEVs as distributed energy resources. Electric
infrastructure requirements increase as PHEVs progress from (1) being added as another electricity using appliance, to
(2) using the battery system of the PHEV to provide emergency or other electric services to the home or office building,
and to (3) using the battery system to provide capacity, energy, or ancillary services to the grid as a distributed energy
resource for electric system planners and operators.
♦ A near-term mechanism for potentially using PHEVs as distributed energy resources by utilities is Demand Response
programs. Interest in these programs is growing across the country and they currently provide financial incentives in
certain regions for consumers to use distributed energy to reduce their load during periods of electric system peak
demand, while enabling near-normal business operations to continue.
Analysis Needs
♦ There is a lot of analysis that needs to be done to fully assess PHEVs and their potential impacts on the electric system.
Resources for this analysis are limited so there is a need for collaboration among those in the analysis community to set
priorities, achieve greater uniformity and comparability in methods, scenarios, and assumptions, and greater
comparability of the results.
♦ Key analysis questions to address include: (1) assessing vehicle-to-home and vehicle-to-grid concepts on electric
infrastructure including interconnection, safety, electric distribution equipment such as transformers and feeder lines,
and utility business models; (2) determining the range of possibilities for consumer preferences and charging behaviors,
and how to educate and influence them; (3) assessing the level and types of alternative incentives that will be needed to
make PHEVs financially attractive to consumers, including possible revenue streams from utilities for grid benefits and
subsidies from government, (4) determining the extent to which distributed energy concepts such as PHEVs can
contribute to meeting the electric resource and ancillary services needs of utilities, (5) assessing the impacts of PHEVs
on utility air emissions and the effects of potential environmental regulations on utility interests in PHEVs, and (6)
developing PHEV market adoption scenarios that include likely market entry dates, how many vehicles will be sold and
when, and the points when a “critical mass” is reached for having a substantial impact on the grid.
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3. R ED G ROUP R ESULTS
Red Group Participants
Name
Anthony Barna
Steven Boyd
Lawrence Cheng
Dan Chartier
Mark Duvall
Zoran Filipi
Jim Francfort
Ken Huber
Steven Letendre
John Markowitz, Group
Spokesperson
Jerome Meisel
Dan Santini
Chris Schafer
Lee Slezak
Merrill Smith
Richard Smith
Gary Was
Organization
Con Ed
U.S. Department of Energy, EERE
GridPoint
U.S. EPA
EPRI
University of Michigan
Idaho National Laboratory
PJM Interconnection
Prometheus Institute
NY Power Authority
Georgia Tech
Argonne National Laboratory
American Electric Power
U.S. Department of Energy, EERE
U.S. Department of Energy, OE
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
University of Michigan
There is a lot of uncertainty about the future for PHEVs and their
potential impacts on the electric system. Their impacts depend on
market penetration which is driven by a variety of highly uncertain
factors, including, for example, future gasoline prices, future electricity
prices, and market readiness of the vehicles, patterns of early adoption,
and the level and types of incentives offered. Market penetration
scenarios should include an upper bound that assumes the most
favorable conditions for PHEVs including technology readiness and
substantial government, automobile manufacturer, and electric utility
support. There should also be a lower bound which assumes much less
favorable conditions and support. A “family” of in-between scenarios
would be helpful for guiding government agencies, businesses, and
potential consumers in decision making about investments and
commercialization/adoption strategies, and assessing several of the
uncertainties surrounding PHEVs. A useful timeframe for the analysis
of PHEVs and grid impacts includes 2010 (as a possible market entry
date), 2030, and 2050.
Consumer charging preferences and behaviors is a significant unknown,
although some market research and been done. Charging patterns will
depend on many factors, including, for example, access to plugs, the
time it takes to charge, the
FACILITATOR: RICHARD SCHEER, ENERGETICS INCORPORATED
level and visibility of
electricity prices, the level of consumer knowledge and awareness, the type and size
of the PHEVs, personal versus fleet use, and what utilities will allow. A useful
range of charging possibilities includes: only when the utility allows charging to
occur, whenever consumers want to, and a mix of the above.
In the initial phases of market entry of PHEVs, the existing electric distribution
infrastructure will be sufficient, in most locations, to satisfy expected needs.
Advanced metering and “smart” grid technologies will likely be introduced as
PHEVs are being introduced and there are synergies between the two that need to
be identified and addressed. A useful framework for evaluating grid impacts of
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PHEVs includes: (1) PHEVs as another appliance involves little to no grid impacts until substantial levels of market
penetration, (2) PHEVs provide power to the home or office requires some level of grid upgrade for safety and access and
strategies for inclusion in utility Demand Response programs, and (3) PHEVs provide power to the grid and serve as system
resources requires more extensive smart grid upgrades and strategies for use in ancillary services markets and other areas of
planning and operations.
There is a lot of analysis that needs to be done to fully assess PHEVs and their
impacts on the electric system. Resources for this analysis are limited so there is a
need for collaboration among the analysis community to set priorities and achieve
greater uniformity and comparability in methods, scenarios, and assumptions.
Key analysis questions to address include: (1) assessing vehicle to home and grid
on electric infrastructure including interconnection, safety, and utility business
models; (2) determining the range of possibilities for consumer preferences and
charging behaviors, and how to educate and influence them; (3) assessing the level
and types of alternative incentives that will be needed to make PHEVs financially
attractive to consumers, including possible revenue streams from utilities for grid
benefits and subsidies from government, (4) assessing the impacts of PHEVs on
utility air emissions and the effects of potential environmental regulations, and (5)
developing PHEV market adoption scenarios that include likely market entry
dates, how many vehicles will be sold and when, and the points when a “critical mass” is reached for having a substantial
impact on the grid.
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Analysis Assumptions and Issues
MARKET PENETRATION
SCENARIOS
• Key Variables the Scenarios Should
Address
- A range of potential gasoline and other
fuel prices
- A range of vehicle ranges – 20, 40, 60
miles, other?
- Demographic variation – urban,
suburban, exurban, rural
- Regional and time-of-day differences in
electricity prices
- Regional variations in the mix of electric
generation
• Alternative Business Models and
Commercialization Strategies
- Presence and absence of financial
incentives from electric utilities
- Presence and absence of different types
of government subsidies
- A range of perceived consumer benefits
and preferences
- Personal vehicles, corporate fleets,
industrial vehicles
• Types of Scenarios Needed
- PHEVs “Save-the-World” (upper)
- PHEVs are modest or neglible
contributors (lower)
- A “family” of scenarios in between
evaluating different cases/assumptions
• Timeframe
- ~2010 (target date for PHEV initial market
entry
- ~2030
- ~2050
PHEV Grid Impacts Technical Review
CONSUMER PHEV
CHARGING BEHAVIORS
• Depends on Key Factors
- Convenience
Access to plug
Amount of time it takes to charge
- Costs
Level and visibility of prices to consumers
- Level of consumer knowledge and awareness
Ability of the ‘average’ consumer to adapt
- Type and size of vehicle
“smartness of the vehicle”
- Type of market application
Personal or corporate fleets
- What utilities allow
• Range of Charging Possibilities
- Only when utilities allow charging to occur
- Whenever consumers want to
- Mix of both
6
ELECTRIC DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM
CHARACTERISTICS
• Technologies
- Presence or absence of advanced metering
infrastructure
Widely available across the country in 10 years?
- Degree of “smartness” of the grid
- Location of inverter (in vehicle, on site, both?)
• Planning and Operations
- Level of distribution asset utilization (local
substations and feeder lines)
- Amount of marginal upgrade needed, if any
- Mode of PHEV Operation
Just another load/appliance
Vehicle to home
Vehicle to grid
- Geographic density and availability of plugs
- Rules for grid interconnection
- Concerns with “backfeeding” from PHEVs to the
grid
Worker safety
Possible damage to protective and auxiliary equipment
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Key Analysis Questions1
UTILITY/INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS
• What are the potential impacts of vehicle to home and
grid?
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦
- What are the interconnection and safety issues of
power back to the home or grid?
- Do potential V2G benefits justify utility investment in
additional infrastructure, if and when needed?
• What will be the actual costs and availability of electricity
for charging 8760 hours/year
♦♦♦♦
• What are potential business strategies for utilities with
PHEVs?
♦♦♦♦
- Will utilities be interested in owning/leasing batteries to
consumers?
- How can utilities cooperate with auto OEMs,
government, others to address PHEV opportunities and
needs for solving “addiction to oil”
- Need to quantify the financial benefits to utilities as a
function of PHEV availability
• How soon will concentrations of PHEVs affect local grid
distribution infrastructure?
♦♦
- To determine weak links in the power system
- Charging priorities when multiple vehicle are parked at
the same location
- How does charging software develop a queue?
- What issues affect ability to charge during the day?
• What set of standards (e.g., business, safety,
environmental) will be required for success?
• Who has data on home wiring and grid availability of
plugs at parking facilities and other sites in urban areas?
• How do we identify load pocket locations by time-of-day
and time-of-year?
1
CONSUMER
ANALYSIS
•
•
•
•
•
•
What will be the likely charging
preferences/behaviors of the public? When,
Where, How Much?
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦
- Which mechanisms might work best to
encourage off-peak charging?
- What are the best approaches to
influencing charging behaviors?
- Will consumer education occur and who
will/should provide it?
What are consumer preferences for charging
times?
♦♦
- Consumer expectations?
- Large versus small vehicles?
- Personal versus fleet?
- Options for smart charging
What should be the target for “pure” electric
range of vehicles?
♦
How many vehicles are typically parked with
easy plug access during the day and
overnight?
♦♦
What factors will drive PHEV market
acceptance? Operational cost savings,
environmental advantages, and incentives?
♦
What are the marginal characteristics of
pump fuels and electricity for 2010 – 2050?
♦
VEHICLE
ANALYSIS
• What is the lifetime and costs of batteries?
♦♦♦♦♦♦
• What is the most appropriate charging cycle
to use in modeling (time-of-day, day-of-week,
seasonal variation)?
♦♦
• What are the PHEV operating costs
(kWh/mile) and carbon dioxide reductions?
♦
• Will PHEVs someday cost less than $100K?
♦=vote for inclusion as one of top 5 priorities
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Key Analysis Questions2 (Con’t)
COMMERCIALIZATION
STRATEGIES
PUBLIC
POLICIES
• What role should electric utilities play in
• What incentives are needed to advance PHEVs?
promoting the use of electricity for transportation?
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦
♦♦♦
- How long will incentives be needed?
- What utility incentive programs will work best?
- When can a PHEV be sold without a subsidy?
- Is there utility interest in purchasing new or
- What legislation is needed?
used battery packs for utility system storage?
- Will government incentivize utilities to upgrade
- Is there utility interest in leasing batteries?
T&D?
rebates?
• What are the emissions impacts and issues?
- How much are utilities willing to accommodate
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦
PHEV user needs and wants?
- What are the urban air emissions impacts?
• Who will lead the realization of PHEV
- What are the carbon impacts?
technologies?
- What are the effects of cross-sector emissions
trading?
♦♦
- What will be the affect of taxes on carbon
- Utilities?
emissions?
- Auto OEMs?
- What emissions regulations will affect the
- Government?
electric power industry the most in 2010, 2030,
• Will PHEVs be quickly adopted by consumers?
and 2050?
fleets?, industrial vehicles?
• What are the metrics that will determine the
♦
success of PHEV implementation?
♦
• What are the affects of CAFÉ standards on
PHEV development and deployment?
2
SCENARIO
ANALYSIS
• At what volume/penetration will PHEV have a
significant impact on the grid?
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦
- How many PHEVs will be available and by
when?
- What is the market entry date?
- What is the date that a “critical mass” of sales
will be reached?
- What is the most appropriate diffusion
scenario?
• How will the retail price of gasoline change over
time (e.g., carbon taxes, road taxes, energy
security premiums)
♦♦
- What are the marginal characteristics of pump
fuels and electricity 2010 – 2050?
• How does the probability of PHEV introduction
change for regulated versus deregulated utilities
and markets?
• What are the local utility and regional impacts
versus national averages?
- Focus on single city/urban areas
- What about rural utilities?
• What are the relative impacts of personal versus
fleet vehicles?
♦=vote for inclusion as one of top 5 priorities
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4. B LUE G ROUP R ESULTS
Blue Group Participants
Name
Organization
Fernando Alvarado
Bill Boyce
Pat Duggan
Stan Hadley
Keith Hardy
Mike Jirousek
Michael Kintner-Meyer
Sakis Meliopoulos
Simon Mui
IEEE-USA
SMUD
Con Ed
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Argonne National Laboratory
First Energy
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Georgia Tech
U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency
Current Group
Pacific Gas & Electric
Doug Naeve
Efrain Ornelas, Group
Spokesperson
Walter Short
Jordan Smith
Ro Sullivan
Peter Sweatman
National Renewable Energy
Laboratory
Southern California Edison
U.S. Department of Energy, EERE
University of Michigan
There seems to be general consensus that PHEVs can benefit both
consumers, with respect to lower “fuel” prices, and utilities, by offering
a solution to better asset utilization. There is a fair amount of
uncertainty about market penetration scenarios. Carbon policies will
affect the market adoption of these technologies. Whether or not
customers, utilities, or both parties receive credits is part of the
equation. Additionally, there may be different incentives for various
classes of vehicles (light, medium, and heavy-duty) that may affect the
market penetration.
In the next 7-10 years there will be modest adoption of PHEVs and the
electric system will not change much beyond historical growth.
Depending on demographics of some regions, there may be pockets of
early adopters that utilities will need to monitor. There will be a
movement toward a “smart” grid that may coincide with PHEVs
becoming more prevalent in the marketplace and efforts to harmonize
these initiatives will need to occur. The characteristics of the electric
system may evolve depending on the progression of PHEVs, to vehicles
to home, to vehicle to grid; each step will require an increasing amount
of sophistication.
FACILITATOR: BRIAN MARCHIONINI, ENERGETICS INCORPORATED
Consumer charging
behavior is an
important aspect that will depend on several factors. Everything else being
equal, customers will charge whenever it is convenient for them so utilities
should offer incentives to charge during off-peak times. There should be
efforts to educate consumers about charging their vehicles. There may be
entrepreneurs that build public charging parking lots where customers could
fuel up during the day, which could coincide with the peak capacity of the grid.
There are a range of analysis questions that should be answered to assess the
impact on the electrical system. Determining what the PHEV penetration rate
over the coming decades will depend on several factors including consumer
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demand, automaker response, and the policy environment. These factors will influence
each other and may change over time.
With the movement towards a smart electrical grid there will questions about the
interoperability of PHEVs including how they will communicate with the utility and how
much control the utility will have over them. Other questions may arise such as how long
will a vehicle need to be plugged in to capture spinning, regulation, VAR and other
ancillary service incentive payments. There are a number of policy scenarios that could
play out and have various effects on the power system.
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Analysis Assumptions and Issues
MARKET PENETRATION
SCENARIOS
• In the next 7-10 years there will be modest
adoption of PHEVs and the electric system
will not change much beyond historical
growth
• If there is a carbon policy in the future then
it needs to be clear who receives the
credits - utility, customer, or both
• Today’s transportation system will change
in the future and may affect PHEVs in a
positive or negative way
• Customers will slowly move from 110v to
240v outlets once the benefits are
recognized
• Customers will ultimately drive market
penetration through incentives and credits
- Politicians will also affect implementation
of PHEVs with new low emissions
policies
• There will be additional value to PHEVs
including serving as a back-up power
generator during emergencies and V2G
applications
• Based on various energy efficiency goals
set in the future there will be different
groups of people working on different
solutions (to the extent possible there
should be integrated efforts)
• PHEVs will not only be used in light duty
applications, but also medium and heavy
duty applications and there will be different
incentives for each
PHEV Grid Impacts Technical Review
CONSUMER
CHARGING BEHAVIORS
• Consumers will need to be educated about charging
• Consumers will ultimately charge whenever
convenient for them
- public charging parking lots
- at home during the day or at night
• Utility incentives will affect charging
• May depend on the amount of time it takes to charge
11
DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM
CHARACTERISTICS
• There are several modes that PHEVs could
operate – as a utility “load”, vehicle to home, and
vehicle to grid
• 110v charging may not suffice for PHEV 60+
applications
• Utilities will need to be able to adapt to numerous
loads coming on at the same time
• In the future there will be more energy efficiency
measures in place such as smart appliances and
electronics
• Because of demographics there may be parts of a
utility service territory that experience higher rates
of PHEV adoption
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Key Analysis Questions3
3
MODELING ISSUES FOR MARKET
PENETRATION AND LOAD IMPACTS
INFRASTRUCTURE AND HARDWARE
• What will be the business model for PHEV value
creation?
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦
- Automaker role?
- Utility role?
- Policies/incentives?
• What will be the PHEV penetration rate over the
coming decades? Consumer demand, automaker
response, and the policy environment will be
factors
♦♦♦♦♦♦
• What is the timing of the market PHEVs?
♦♦♦♦
- A trend and block load scenario should be
done
• How many PHEVs of different characteristics are
on and when?
♦♦
• How can planning data collection be improved to
better differentiate between contributing
components (such as load grow and type, energy
efficiency, distributed generation, PHEVs,
demand side management)?
• How do actual drivers behave with PHEV
technology beyond demonstrations and field
operation tests?
♦♦
• What are the key sensitivities?
♦♦
- Know what assumptions drive the evaluation
one way or the other to assess robustness
• How will PHEVs impact the regional demand
curves and reliability?
♦
• What are the demographics, locational loads, and
best approaches to support needed PHEV
• What changes to the power system are
necessary to take full advantage of PHEV
potential?
♦♦♦♦♦♦
• What kind of characteristics need to be looked at
for vehicle to house?
♦♦♦♦
• How will “smart” devices be integrated?
♦♦♦♦♦
- Will there be a smart grid to realize all
benefits?
- How will smart PHEVs communicate with the
utility and how much control will the utility
have?
- Will smart PHEVS provide backup power?
• How will metering of PHEV energy be
conducted?
♦♦♦
• What is the pinch point for the system when it
becomes stressed?
♦
• How will pollution credits affect PHEVs?
• How will the reliability of the system be affected?
♦♦
• How much can utilities control vehicle charging
(pricing, charger control)?
• What is the charging capability of PHEV 20, 40
and 60 batteries with 110v, 240v, or other?
VEHICLE
HARDWARE
• What is the battery cycling lifetime and charging
times?
• Can ultracapacitors have a role with PHEVs?
♦=vote for inclusion as one of top 5 priorities
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MODELING ISSUES FOR MARKET
PENETRATION AND LOAD IMPACTS
•
•
•
•
INFRASTRUCTURE AND HARDWARE
VEHICLE
HARDWARE
infrastructure changes to give more continuity to
utilities and assure repeat buyers for auto
manufacturers?
What is the market saturation for these vehicles?
What is the charging power?
Are there power quality issues?
Are there time-of-use-rates available?
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Key Analysis Questions4 (Con’t)
BUSINESS
CASE
POLICY
• Will customers be given the necessary price signals or incentives to respond
to system conditions?
♦♦♦
• Will we be willing to transfer the risk of PHEV investments to private nonutility parties?
♦
• Are medium/heavy duty vehicles a better fit for PHEVs than passenger
vehicles at least initially?
♦
• What are the impacts on wholesale markets?
♦
• What utility services can/will PHEVs supply or demand (energy, reserves,
regulation, reactive power)?
4
• What carbon policy details and incentives will influence PHEV production
(e.g. is transportation and electricity covered in cap and trade, is trading
between sectors allowed, etc)?
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦
• How can we incentivize utilities to adopt technologies that enable faster
PHEV penetration (V2G)?
♦♦♦
• How will PHEVs affect the national issue of dependence on foreign oil?
♦♦♦
• What will be the outcome if carbon policies, renewable portfolio standards
and PHEVs are overlaid?
♦♦
• How will the market be allowed to work – (do not unknowingly pervert of
Balkanize market price signals)?
♦♦
• What are other issues diving the market, i.e. legislation and regulations,
etc.?
• How can new PHEV load be optimized to meet RPS (integration with wind
power)?
♦=vote for inclusion as one of top 5 priorities
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5. G REEN G ROUP R ESULTS
Green Group Participants
Name
John Bruza
Dick DeBlasio
Steve Hauser
Dick Howell
James S. Jackson
Mark Kapner
Joe Kerecman
John Lee
Eric Lightner
Joel Pointon
Rob Pratt
Michael Shelby
Margaret Singh
John L. Sullivan
Peter Teagan
Mary Beth Tighe
Wayne Wittman
Organization
National Grid
National Renewable Energy Lab
GridPoint / GridWise
U.S. Department of Energy, EERE
University of Michigan
City of Austin Energy
PJM Interconnection
University of Michigan
U.S. Department of Energy, OE
Sempra Utilities – SDG&E
Pacific Northwest National Lab
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
Argonne National Laboratory
Sustainable Development Strategies
TIAX
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
PSE&G of New Jersey
FACILITATOR: MELISSA EICHNER, ENERGETICS INCORPORATED
Green Group Summary
The grid today can meet the growth of PHEV market penetration for the
next 10 plus years provided recharge takes place off peak. Battery
technology is limiting PHEV growth today. The PHEV types and timing
of availability will have important implications for the grid. This will
determine the electricity use per vehicle, driving range, the variability
among PHEV, and many other factors. Purchasing incentives will be
needed to get above a zero penetration rate unless there are dramatic
changes. The price of gasoline and policies directed to consumers and/or
utilities will largely determine the economics. Determining what
regulatory models foster PHEV needs to be assessed. The impact of
carbon caps, SOx caps, Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and other
policies will determine the generation mix and electricity prices.
Because of high battery costs, how PHEV are marketed to consumers
could largely impact consumer acceptance. Initial adoption should focus
on fleet vehicles. Policymakers and utilities will need to anticipate the
future opportunities from V2appliance, V2home, and V2G. In the near
term, however, the focus should be on ease of low-cost plugging in. A
broadly accepted PHEV
market model is needed to
show successes to policy
makers.
To make PHEV cost-competitive per mile and for load balancing, utilities need to
be able to encourage consumers to plug in during off peak hours. As the number
of PHEV on the road increase, utilities will need a way to control PHEV recharge,
like other appliances (e.g., air conditioners). Consumers also need easy access to
recharging facilities away from home, including some kind of “easy pay” option
such as a “radio communication” plug that moves with the vehicle.
Understanding consumer behavior and preferences is needed. If consumers
recharge two times per day, for example, this could have important implications
for battery life and electricity supply economics.
PHEV Grid Impacts Technical Review
15
March 2007
Draft, Prepared by Energetics Incorporated
The challenges posed by PHEV to the electric distribution system are similar to other new home electric equipment. However,
the impact of high-level PHEV penetration on grid reliability and night-time recharging on transformer cooling cycles needs to
be determined. Linking PHEV recharge to a dedicated renewable resource such as wind which is available at night could
make PHEV more economical and appealing. PHEV are the only driving option that will get environmentally friendlier with
time.
PHEV Grid Impacts Technical Review
16
March 2007
Draft, Prepared by Energetics Incorporated
Appropriate Set of Assumptions for Analysis
MARKET PENETRATION SCENARIOS
• When will OEMs have a vehicle
available? # vehicles in 2010
• What type of PHEV will it be? PHEV 20
to 60, blended, series (i.e., small engine
for battery) – we need manufacturers
involved
• Consumer economic comparison
analysis – what will the cost of batteries
be overtime? What will vehicle
performance be overtime?
• For the first market, focus on fleet
vehicles
• For fleet vehicles, need rapid charging:
5-10 hours at 110; less than 2 hours at
220; less than 1 hour at 480
• Relate penetration to pay-back
economics
• Price of gasoline and availability
• Price of hybrids today and in the future
i.e., 2011 and beyond
• How will we get above “O” penetration?
• Cost of climate change compliance (will
this be a continued focus?)
• Policies, e.g., requirements for
renewables, tax credits
PHEV Grid Impacts Technical Review
CONSUMER CHARGING BEHAVIORS
• How much electricity will be used per vehicle?
What is the range? What will the
commonality be across different battery
across models?
• Conversion of vehicles to hybrid – are the
costs going down significantly?
• How will PHEV be presented to consumers?
e.g., cost of batteries as a fixed cost or
battery leasing to increase penetration? utility
incentives (rebates) or “leasers”?
• Design battery to have “high value for
secondary use” (e.g., a mobile phase and
then stationary)
• Accessibility of plugging, especially in urban
areas
• Need simple “hook in” to grid
• Rate structures for time-of-use and utility
incentives for PHEV
• Two-way power requirement (smart
interconnection)and impact on distribution
system What revenue can be generated by
vehicle to owners (V2G)
17
• Utility control of vehicle charging times e.g., like for air
conditioning. Need a radio in the plug so it moves with car
(could be after market purchase)
• What are the price-based ways to get a response in “real time”
• Curb-side identification and automated payment/billing i.e.,
“easy pay”
• Consumers must control charging i.e., have an “over ride” option
with disincentives
• If consumers charge vehicles 2x/day, what is the impact on
battery requirements?
• What will be the availability of charging stations? How many
times will people want to charge? What are the charge
economics?
• What are the implications of an aging population?
• What population will use PHEV?
• What is the target? Reduce emissions of CO2 and criteria
pollutants? Reduce oil use?
• Need clean base load generation to foster PHEV
• What range of driving (30-40 mile/day) is required?
• What car options will be available? extra battery, more power
• What if there is an unconventional power source in the home,
e.g., solar? What is the economics if renewables are the power
source?
• What are the effects of other auto energy needs such as heating
and defrosting?
• Preference to plugging in vs. fueling
March 2007
Draft, Prepared by Energetics Incorporated
Appropriate Set of Assumptions for Analysis (cont’d)
ELECTRIC DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS
• Wind availability dedicated to PHEV recharge –
link to renewables
• Old neighborhoods—do they have capacity?
• Not allowing transformers to cool off, what is
impact of this
• New capacity will be added because utilities
build to the peak. Infrastructure changes may
happen anyway. A portion of demand growth
will be balanced with more efficient new
appliances
• How will this impact the probability of blackouts?
Utilities already have interruptible customers,
and when this isn’t enough, they put out radio
requests
• Not major issue in next 20-30 yrs if plug-in off
peak (1way) – what is time horizon for planning,
e.g., penetration?
• There is more capacity in distribution and
transmission than generation. Mandatory
reliability is being considered by FERC.
Balance “load leveling” leads to increased
efficiency without making capital idle
PHEV Grid Impacts Technical Review
• Charger issues such as in-home harmonic
standards(5-19), safety, equipment costs, grid
interconnection quality control with low power
quality low
• Need scenarios for 100% off peak...# on peak
• Smart rate structures – off peak, may change
over time, depend on how PHEV are marketed by
utilities
• How much addition to peak load growth rate
would be a concern? 1%? Many utilities prefer
zero growth to peak so they run what they have
more efficiently and level the load
• Meet the needs of the “flexible” consumer
concerned for costs
18
OTHER
• “Road” tax on fuels could fall on vehicle owners
(right now, the tax is built into the cost of fuel)
• What are the enabling regulatory models to make
this work? e.g., buy-sell rates, access
• Could utilities get carbon credits for encouraging
PHEV? They are already issued in California. Who
gets the credit? The one who has obligation?
• Government incentives (or disincentives)
• Depth cycle discharge
• V2 appliance and V2 home will precede V2G
“dispatchable load”
• Business incentives – night time-of use rate e.g.,
CA’s “electric vehicle rates” which require two
meters today
• Generating capacity – fuel consumption is “burning
something” verses electric capacity
March 2007
Draft, Prepared by Energetics Incorporated
Most Critical Questions to Answer5
CHARGING (12)
ELECTRICITY
CAPACITY (12)
• How can utilities minimize
• What is the impact of highPHEV charging during peak
level PHEV penetration on
grid reliability?
periods?
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦
♦♦♦♦♦
• What is the impact on types
• What will be the demand
of generation?
(kW) of each PHEV battery
charger?
♦♦♦
♦♦♦
• What is the impact on T&D
• Will V2G applications be
capacity (electricity)?
standardized?
♦♦
♦♦
• How will off peak vs. on
peak objectives be
achieved?
♦
• What are the preferences of
use across high and low
usage periods e.g., what is
the consumer charging
profile and is it cost
sensitive?
♦
• Will daytime recharging be
allowed and with what utility
control?
5
ENVIRONMENTAL
TAXES (11)
DEMAND (9)
• What will be the impact of
• What is the impact on
carbon caps, SOX caps, and
electricity demand of PHEV
RPS on the generation mix
over time i.e., 10-30 years?
and prices?
♦♦♦♦
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦
• What is the anticipated rate
• What is the impact of PHEV
of PHEV growth in the
utilization on global
vehicle population?
warming?
♦♦♦
♦♦
• Where will the majority of
• What is the carbon benefit
PHEV’s operate – by region
(quantify) of PHEV and
and urban area?
infrastructure systems, near♦♦
term and in the future?
• Will the costs of a carbon tax
be a driver?
DISTRIBUTION (8)
• What are the distribution
system limits to throughput
under high-penetration
scenarios?
♦♦♦♦
• What technical capabilities
are needed for integration
into grid
operations/planning?
♦♦♦
• How can we get penetration
rates in sync with
distribution planning?
♦
• What are the operating
conditions/limitations of the
vehicle?
♦=vote for inclusion as one of top 5 priorities
PHEV Grid Impacts Technical Review
19
March 2007
Draft, Prepared by Energetics Incorporated
Most Critical Questions to Answer6 (Cont’d)
V2G (7)
• What needs to be
done technically to
allow PHEV to be a
complement to
transmission
expansion e.g.,
“renewable firming”?
♦♦♦
• How much energy
(kWh) will be stored
in each PHEV when
full?
♦♦♦
• Are PHEV going to
be two-way flow or
just in a charging
mode only?
♦
• What policies are
needed for V2G
applications?
• Is V2G a probable
scenario within the
next 10 years?
6
INCENTIVES &
POLICY (6)
COMMUNICATION
(5)
PUBLIC
INFRASTRUCTURE (2)
SKILLED
STAFF (1)
MACRO ECONOMIC
IMPACT ON FUEL PRICES
& VISE VERSA
• Will there be federal, state, • What communication • What additional
• Will we have people • What is the feedback
and local financial
infrastructure is
infrastructure will be
in the utilities that are
of penetration and
incentives for purchasing
needed to enable a
needed (e.g., outlets)?
skilled and
electric costs? e.g.,
PHEV?
range of charging
understand PHEV
coal price, natural gas
♦♦
scenarios (customer
technology?
price, congestion
♦♦♦♦♦
choice)?
costs, renewable
♦
• Are incentives for
portfolio standards
♦♦♦♦♦
customers needed? For
♦
utilities?
• Are there plans to
make the power
♦
converters and
• Will or should the
inverters “smart” with
government provide
the grid?
incentives to utilities to
support PHEV as part of oil
reduction policy?
• What are the state vs.
federal jurisdiction of
regulations?
♦=vote for inclusion as one of top 5 priorities
PHEV Grid Impacts Technical Review
20
March 2007
Draft, Prepared by Energetics Incorporated
6. C ONCLUSIONS
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) represent an important opportunity for addressing America’s transportation needs,
including personal vehicles, corporate fleets, and industrial vehicles like fork lifts and trucks. The impacts of PHEVs on the
electric power system depend on many factors, the most significant of which are: (1) the rate of adoption of vehicles, (2) the
manner by which users charge the batteries of the vehicles, and (3) the extent to which they are used by utilities as distributed
energy resources.
There are many uncertainties in the rate of market adoption of PHEVs that come from questions about technology readiness
(particularly the cost and durability of batteries), the future of fuel and electricity prices, the future of energy and
environmental policies and regulations, the future of competing types of vehicles, the interest of government or electric utilities
in providing incentives for PHEVs, and the wide range of possibilities for consumer, utility, and automaker acceptance.
Analysis of these conditions and possibilities can be useful to consumers and public and private decision makers in providing
information for investment strategies and public policies that affect PHEVs. However, resources for analysis of this kind are
limited so there needs to be greater coordination and collaboration among PHEV and electric system analysts to achieve
greater harmony in the scenarios and assumptions used, and in the comparability of analysis results across studies. This
meeting was an important first step in this direction.
Next steps for addressing potential PHEV grid impacts include:
o Exploring the potential value proposition of medium duty PHEV vehicles such as government and corporate fleets
o Encouraging auto manufacturers, federal and state government agencies, and electric utilities to have further
discussions of PHEVs and grid impacts
o Conducting further analysis and studies on the topics and issues identified by the breakout groups, such as electric
distribution infrastructure requirements for vehicle-to-home and vehicle-to-grid applications; studies of consumer
preferences for driving range, type of vehicle, charging patterns, and interest in PHEVs as distributed energy devices
o Encouraging greater coordination among analysts at universities, national laboratories, consulting firms, and the
electric power industry
o Finding ways to keep federal and state utility regulators informed about the issues and opportunities posed by PHEVs
PHEV Grid Impacts Technical Review
21
March 2007
PHEV Grid Impacts Technical Review
``
March 14, 2007 Š L’Enfant Plaza Hotel Š Washington, D.C.
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
8:00 am
Registration Check-In
Continental Breakfast
8:30 am
Opening Plenary
Panel discussion on results of existing studies
Facilitated Q&A session
♦ Breakout group instructions
10:30 am
Break
10:45 am
Breakout Session #1
Discussion of market scenarios and assumptions
♦ Discussion of a framework for analysis
12:30 pm
Working Lunch
Continue discussions of analysis framework, scenarios, and
assumptions
1:30 pm
Breakout Session #2
Breakout group reports
Discussion of crosscutting themes, gaps, and potential next steps
♦ Final thoughts of the participants
3:30 pm
Break
3:45 pm
Closing Plenary
Breakout group reports
Discussion of crosscutting themes, gaps, and potential next steps
♦ Final thoughts of the participants
5:00 pm
Adjourn
PHEV Grid Impacts Technical Review Meeting
A-1
March 2007
PHEV Grid Impacts Technical Review
``
March 14, 2007 Š L’Enfant Plaza Hotel Š Washington, D.C.
Fernando Alvarado
IEEE-USA Energy Policy Committee
Email: alvarado@engr.wisc.edu
Melissa Eichner
Energetics Incorporated
Email: meichner@energetics.com
Anthony Barna
Con Edison
Email: barnaa@coned.com
Zoran Filipi
University of Michigan
Email: filipi@umich.edu
Bill Boyce
Sacramento Municipal Utility District
Email: bboyce@smud.org
James Francfort
Idaho National Laboratory
Email: james.francfort@inl.gov
Steven Boyd
U.S. Department of Energy
Email: steven.boyd@ee.doe.gov
Stanton Hadley
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Email: hadleysw@ornl.gov
John Bzura
National Grid
Email: john.bzura@us.ngrid.com
Keith Hardy
Argonne National Laboratory
Email: khardy@anl.gov
Daniel Chartier
US Environmental Protection Agency
Email: Chartier.Daniel@epa.gov
Steve Hauser
GridPoint
Email: shauser@gridpoint.com
Lawrence Cheng
Gridpoint, Inc.
Email: lcheng@gridpoint.com
David Howell
U.S. Department of Energy
Email: david.howell@ee.doe.gov
Richard DeBlasio
NREL
Email: dick_deblasio@nrel.gov
Kenneth Huber
PJM Interconnection
Email: huberk@pjm.com
PatrickM. Duggan
Con Edison of NY, Inc.
Email: dugganp@coned.com
James Jackson
University of Michigan
Email: jamessj@isr.umich.edu
Mark Duvall
EPRI
Email: mduvall@epri.com
Michael Jirousek
FirstEnergy
Email: mjjirousek@firstenergycorp.com
PHEV Grid Impacts Technical Review Meeting
B-1
March 2007
``
Mark Kapner
City of Austin Austin Energy
Email: mark.kapner@austinenergy.com
Efrain Ornelas
Pacific Gas and Electric Co.
Email: exo1@pge.com
Joseph Kerecman
PJM Interconnection
Email: kerecj@pjm.com
Joel Pointon
Sempra Utilities - SDG&E
Email: jpointon@semprautilities.com
Michael Kintner-Meyer
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Email: Michael.Kintner-Meyer@pnl.gov
Robert Pratt
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Email: robert.pratt@pnl.gov
John Lee
University of Michigan
Email: jcl@umich.edu
Danilo Santini
Argonne National Laboratory
Email: dsantini@anl.gov
Steven Letendre
Prometheus Institute
Email: sletendre@prometheus.org
Chris Schafer
American Electric Power
Email: cmschafer@aep.com
Eric Lightner
Department of Energy
Email: eric.lightner@hq.doe.gov
Rich Scheer
Energetics Incorporated
Email: rscheer@energetics.com
Brian Marchionini
Energetics, Inc
Email: bmarchionini@energetics.com
Michael Shelby
US EPA
Email: shelby.michael@epa.gov
john markowitz
New York Power Authority
Email: john.markowitz@nypa.gov
Walter Short
NREL
Email: walter_short@nrel.gov
Jerome Meisel
Georgia Institute of Technology
Email: jmeisel@ee.gatech.edu
Margaret Singh
Argonne National Laboratory
Email: singhm@anl.gov
Sakis Meliopoulos
Georgia Tech College of Engineering
Email: sakis.m@gatech.edu
Lee Slezak
DOE/EERE/FCVT
Email: lee.slezak@ee.doe.gov
Simon Mui
US EPA
Email: mui.simon@epa.gov
Jordan Smith
Southern California Edison
Email: jordan.smith@sce.com
Doug Naeve
Current Communications Group
Email: doug.naeve@currentgroup.com
Richard Smith
ORNL
Email: SmithRL4@ornl.gov
PHEV Grid Impacts Technical Review Meeting
B-2
March 2007
``
Mary Beth Tighe
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
Merrill Smith
U.S. Department of Energy
Email: merrill.smith@hq.doe.gov
Gary Was
University of Michigan
Email: gsw@umich.edu
Rogelio Sullivan
U.S. Department of Energy
Email: rogelio.sullivan@ee.doe.gov
Wayne Wittman
PSE&G
Email: Wayne.Wittman@pseg.com
John Sullivan
Sustainable Development Strategies, LLC
Email: jlsulliv8@aol.com
Peter Sweatman
U-M Transportation Research Institute
Email: sweatman@umich.edu
Peter Teagan
TIAXLLC
Email: teaganw@tiaxllc.com
PHEV Grid Impacts Technical Review Meeting
B-3
March 2007
Draft, Prepared by Energetics Incorporated
APPENDIX C. PRELIMINARY LITERATURE SEARCH ON KEY PHEV STUDIES
Name of Report
Authors
Website
Publication date
Impacts Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid
Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional
U.S. Power Grids Part 1: Technical Analysis
PNNL - Michael KintnerMeyer,
Kevin Schneider, and
Robert Pratt
http://www.pnl.gov/energy/eed/etd/pdfs
/phev_feasibility_analysis_combined.p
df
January 2007
Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions of
Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles
EPRI
www.epri.com
January 2007
Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Analysis
NREL - T. Markel, A. Brooker,
J. Gonder, M. O’Keefe,
A. Simpson, and M. Thornton
http://www.nrel.gov/vehiclesandfuels/v
sa/pdfs/40609.pdf
November 2006
Impact of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on the
Electric Grid
ORNL - Stanton Hadley
http://apps.ornl.gov/~pts/prod/pubs/ldo
c3198_plug_in_paper_final.pdf
October 2006
Electricity Generation Costs and Emissions
Associated with Plug-In Hybrid Electric
Vehicle Charging in the Xcel Colorado Service
Territory
NREL - Keith Parks, Paul
Denholm, and Tony Markel
http://ei.colorado.edu/events/fall_2006
_symposium/parks_poster.pdf
October 2006
Plug-In Hybrids: an Environmental and
Economic Performance Outlook
ACEEE - James Kliesch and
Therese Langer
http://aceee.org/pubs/t061.htm
September 2006
Summary Report Discussion Meeting on PlugIn Hybrid Electric Vehicles
DOE
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesa
ndfuels/pdfs/program/plugin_summary_rpt.pdf
May 2006
A Preliminary Assessment of Plug-In
Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Wind Energy
Markets
NREL - Walter Short and
Paul Denholm
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy06osti/3972
9.pdf
April 2006
Overview of Methodologies for Determination
of Fuel-Cycle Emissions for Plug-In Hybrid
Electric Vehicles
EPRI
www.epri.com
February 2006
Vehicle-to-grid power fundamentals:
University of Delaware - Willett
http://www.udel.edu/V2G/KempTom-
December 2004
PHEV Grid Impacts Technical Review
C-1
March 2007
Draft, Prepared by Energetics Incorporated
Name of Report
Authors
Website
Publication date
Calculating capacity and net revenue
Kempton and Jasna Tomic´
V2G-Fundamentals05.PDF
Vehicle-to-grid power implementation: From
stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale
renewable energy
University of Delaware - Willett
Kempton and Jasna Tomic´
http://www.udel.edu/V2G/KempTomV2G-Implementation05.PDF
December 2004
Development and Evaluation of a Plug-in HEV
with
Vehicle-to-Grid Power Flow
AC Propulsion, Inc. - Thomas
B. Gage
http://www.arb.ca.gov/research/apr/pa
st/icat01-2.pdf
December 2003
Advanced Batteries for Electric-Drive Vehicles
A Technology and Cost-Effectiveness
Assessment for Battery Electric, Power Assist
Hybrid Electric, and Plug-in Hybrid Electric
Vehicles
EPRI - Mark Duvall
http://www.epri.com/corporate/discover
_epri/news/downloads/EPRI_AdvBatE
V.pdf
March 2003
Vehicle-to-Grid Demonstration Project:
Grid Regulation Ancillary Service
with a Battery Electric Vehicle
AC Propulsion, Inc. - Alec N.
Brooks
http://www.acpropulsion.com/reports/V
2G%20Final%20Report%20R5.pdf
December 2002
PHEV Grid Impacts Technical Review
C-2
March 2007