External Scan
College of the Redwoods
2011
Projected Population Change
2010 to 2020
35%
30%
% Change
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
TOTAL
White
Hispanic
Asian
Humboldt
Pacific Islander
Black
American Indian
Multirace
California
Humboldt County will experience less growth than California. The Hispanic population will
grow at the highest rate in Humboldt County, although slower than California as a whole.
Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Population Projections for California and Its Counties
2000-2050, Sacramento, California, July 2007.
County Growth
County
HUMBOLDT (2010)
TOTAL
White
Hispanic
Pacific
Islander
Asian
American
Indian
Black
Multirace
134,785
107,867
10,426
2,348
286
1,164
8,148
4,546
5.48%
2.25%
22.01%
12.01%
13.99%
9.28%
17.11%
18.28%
DEL NORTE (2010)
30,983
20,809
5,099
751
18
1,249
2,043
1,014
Projected growth (2020)
16.44%
9.34%
34.58%
20.64%
0.00%
36.99%
26.63%
22.39%
MENDOCINO (2010)
93,166
64,203
19,197
1,121
128
522
5,861
2,134
9.50%
-1.04%
29.42%
10.44%
15.63%
8.05%
56.22%
18.60%
39,135,676 16,438,784 14,512,817
4,684,005
149,878
2,287,190
240,721
822,281
18.01%
31.16%
4.52%
24.46%
15.71%
Projected growth (2020)
Projected growth (2020)
CALIFORNIA (2010)
Projected growth (2020)
12.78%
0.43%
25.83%
• Humboldt county is projected to grow less than Del Norte and Mendocino counties.
• Growth of ethnic minority groups will vary across counties, but all counties are
expected to have much larger Hispanic, Multi-race, and American Indian
populations.
Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Population Projections for California and Its Counties 2000-2050, Sacramento,
California, July 2007.
Projected Population Change by Age
Humboldt County (2010 – 2030)
50,000
•
The 65 and older age
group is projected to
increase sharply
throughout the next
twenty years.
45,000
40,000
35,000
•
•
The 35-44 age group is
also projected to grow
over the next 10 years,
although at a much
slower rate.
All age groups at high
school and younger show
a slight decline.
0-24
30,000
25-34
35-44
25,000
45-54
20,000
55-64
65+
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2010
2020
2030
Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Population Projections for California and Its Counties 2000-2050, Sacramento,
California, July 2007.
High School Graduate Projections
Humboldt
1,800
400,000
1,600
350,000
1,400
300,000
1,200
250,000
1,000
200,000
800
150,000
600
100,000
400
50,000
200
0
0
1974-75
1976-77
1978-79
1980-81
1982-83
1984-85
1986-87
1988-89
1990-91
1992-93
1994-95
1996-97
1998-99
2000-01
2002-03
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09
2010-11
2012-13
2014-15
2016-17
2018-19
2020-21
450,000
Graduates
•
•
1974-75
1976-77
1978-79
1980-81
1982-83
1984-85
1986-87
1988-89
1990-91
1992-93
1994-95
1996-97
1998-99
2000-01
2002-03
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09
2010-11
2012-13
2014-15
2016-17
2018-19
2020-21
California
# Graduates
Humboldt County reached an all time high in terms of high school graduates in 2002-2003.
Graduates have declined, and are expected to continue to decline through 2014-15, after
which they will bounce around but remain fairly constant through 2020.
Source: State of California, Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate
Projections by County, 2011 Series. Sacramento, California, October 2011
100
200
0
0
Del Norte
700
600
200
Graduates
1974-75
1976-77
1978-79
1980-81
1982-83
1984-85
1986-87
1988-89
1990-91
1992-93
1994-95
1996-97
1998-99
2000-01
2002-03
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09
2010-11
2012-13
2014-15
2016-17
2018-19
2020-21
1974-75
1976-77
1978-79
1980-81
1982-83
1984-85
1986-87
1988-89
1990-91
1992-93
1994-95
1996-97
1998-99
2000-01
2002-03
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09
2010-11
2012-13
2014-15
2016-17
2018-19
2020-21
High School Graduate Projections
Mendocino
1,200
1,000
500
800
400
600
300
400
Graduates
Source: State of California, Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate
Projections by County, 2011 Series. Sacramento, California, October 2011
College-Going Rates
Humboldt County
College-going rates - Humboldt County
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
UC
25%
CSU
CCC
20%
Total
15%
10%
5%
0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
• About twice as many high school graduates from Humboldt County go to a CC vs. a
UC or CSU. High-school going rates for CCCs show a somewhat opposite trend as the
CSUs.
High School Yields
• About 30% of high school graduates in the district
enroll at CR.
District HS Yield by Year
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
High School Yields by School
60%
50%
# entering CR in 2010
124
40%
73
65
47
30%
Eureka Senior High, Eureka
Fortuna Union High, Fortuna
McKinleyville High, Mc Kinleyville
Arcata High, Arcata
20%
10%
0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Eureka Senior High shows no increase in the proportion attending CR over the past five
years. Arcata High, however, shows somewhat increased CR attendance.
Humboldt County Economic Forecast
• Total wage and salary job growth is forecast to turn positive in 2011, at 0.7 percent.
Average salaries adjusted for inflation are expected to remain below the California
state.
Source: California County-Level Economic Forecast, 2011-2040. Prepared for the Office of
Transportation Economics Division of Transportation Planning. August 2011
Occupational Employment Projections (2008 – 2018)
North Coast Region: Del Norte, Humboldt, Land and Mendocino Counties
• The majority of jobs in the area require less than a year of on the job training.
Source: Projections of Employment by Industry and Occupation, State of California
Employment Development Department. http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/Content.asp?pageid=145
Occupational Employment Projections (2008 – 2018)
North Coast Region: Del Norte, Humboldt, Land and Mendocino Counties
• The professional and business services industry is projected to
be the fastest growing. Other areas are education, health care
and social assistance, as well as retail trade.
North Coast Projections. March 2009
benchmark. Sorted by growth.
Occupational Title – General Categories
Total, All Occupations
Business and Financial Operations Occupations
Healthcare Support Occupations
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
Occupations
Computer and Mathematical Occupations
Sales and Related Occupations
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
Occupations
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media
Occupations
Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations
Transportation and Material Moving
Occupations
Construction and Extraction Occupations
Community and Social Services Occupations
Legal Occupations
Personal Care and Service Occupations
Production Occupations
Architecture and Engineering Occupations
Education, Training, and Library Occupations
Food Preparation and Serving Related
Occupations
Office and Administrative Support Occupations
Building and Grounds Cleaning and
Maintenance Occupations
Management Occupations
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations
Protective Service Occupations
Annual Average
Employment
2008
2018
118,180
125,450
3050
3440
2950
3320
Employment
Change
% increase
6.20
12.79
12.54
Annual Job
Openings
2010 Wages
Total
Median Annual
3,513
$31,590
99
$48,545
73
$26,493
4710
830
11710
5280
930
13080
12.10
12.05
11.70
155
28
511
$65,771
$51,002
$23,064
4160
4550
9.38
121
$37,148
1180
1630
1290
1740
9.32
6.75
42
62
$33,673
$50,277
5490
5500
2920
490
6900
4690
910
9000
5860
5840
3100
520
7260
4900
950
9380
6.74
6.18
6.16
6.12
5.22
4.48
4.40
4.22
167
127
82
12
176
130
23
241
$30,656
$42,902
$38,351
$60,898
$21,637
$30,094
$67,572
$45,634
10820
16540
11250
17190
3.97
3.93
434
442
$19,316
$30,463
5390
10720
4830
3880
5590
10960
4830
3830
3.71
2.24
0.00
-1.29
111
212
138
127
$26,217
$67,894
$23,808
$49,476
Occupational Employment Projections
• Professional and business services growth is
expected to fuel the growth of accountants,
auditors, and environmental scientists and
specialists. These high paying occupations
require a minimum of a bachelor’s degree.
Annual Average Employment
Occupational Titles
Requiring AA/AS degrees
Physical Therapist Assistants
Veterinary Technologists and
Technicians
Registered Nurses
Dental Hygienists
Respiratory Therapists
Environmental Science and
Protection Technicians, Including
Health
Paralegals and Legal Assistants
Radiologic Technologists and
Technicians
Insurance Sales Agents
Medical Records and Health
Information Technicians
Computer Support Specialists
Civil Engineering Technicians
Biological Technicians
Chemical Technicians
Forest and Conservation Technicians
Life, Physical, and Social Science
Technicians, All Other
Medical and Clinical Laboratory
Technicians
Diagnostic Medical Sonographers
2008
2018
Employment
Change
Annual Job
Openings
2010 Wages
% increase
Total
Median Annual
50
60
20
2
$50,116
110
1,650
130
80
130
1,910
150
90
18.2
15.8
15.4
12.5
5
55
5
3
$31,951
$72,083
$91,881
$64,196
90
100
100
110
11.1
10
6
2
$47,588
$44,299
140
150
150
160
7.1
6.7
3
5
$61,068
$52,940
160
250
70
70
40
170
260
70
70
40
6.3
4
0
0
0
5
8
1
3
1
$29,059
$36,078
$50,145
$31,059
$30,049
280
280
0
13
$35,013
60
60
0
3
$42,363
80
30
80
30
0
0
3
0
$36,251
$73,911
Occupational Employment Projections
• All jobs requiring an AA/AS degree show
increasing growth, or no change.
• Registered nurse jobs are expected to grow by
over 15% with the largest number of annual
job openings of all jobs requiring an AA/AS
degree.
• Jobs requiring Vocational Ed training with projected employment increase
Annual Average
Employment
Occupational Title
Requiring Post-Sec Vocational Ed
Electronic Home Entertainment Equipment
Installers and Repairers
Surgical Technologists
Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and
Cosmetologists
Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers
Real Estate Sales Agents
Automotive Service Technicians and
Mechanics
Health Technologists and Technicians, All
Other
Medical Secretaries
Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine
Specialists
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational
Nurses
Gaming Supervisors
Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics, Except
Engines
Massage Therapists
Preschool Teachers, Except Special
Education
2008
Employment Annual Job
Change
Openings 2010 Wages
Median
% increase
Total
Annual
2018
30
50
40
60
33.3
20
1
2
$37,985
$47,680
260
140
80
310
160
90
19.2
14.3
12.5
9
5
2
$26,120
$39,625
$23,689
560
630
12.5
18
$38,659
90
680
100
750
11.1
10.3
3
16
$35,583
$29,938
250
270
8
8
$41,915
390
130
420
140
7.7
7.7
15
4
$49,713
$41,239
140
170
150
180
7.1
5.9
4
3
$46,774
$24,511
250
260
4
7
$28,718
Occupational Employment Projections
• Jobs for automotive service technicians and
mechanics are expected to grow at 12.5%,
with 18 annual job openings.
• Medical secretaries and LPN/LVNs are also
expected to grow, with larger numbers of
annual job openings.
• Jobs requiring Vocational Ed training with a stable or declining projected employment
Occupational Title
Requiring Post-Sec Vocational Ed cont.
Annual Average
Employment
2008
2018
Employment Annual Job
Change
Openings
% increase Total
2010 Wages
Median Annual
Appraisers and Assessors of Real Estate
40
40
0
1
$45,223
Architectural and Civil Drafters
Court Reporters
Broadcast Technicians
80
30
30
80
30
30
0
0
0
2
0
1
$50,695
$64,842
$21,879
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
Workers, All Other
40
40
0
1
$61,765
60
100
140
190
60
100
140
190
0
0
0
0
1
1
3
3
$35,330
$31,099
$25,017
$37,567
Security and Fire Alarm Systems Installers
40
40
0
2
$38,117
Farm Equipment Mechanics
40
40
0
1
$36,074
Jewelers and Precious Stone and Metal
Workers
40
40
0
1
$19,273
200
180
-10
4
$24,000
Medical Transcriptionists
Chefs and Head Cooks
Slot Key Persons
Legal Secretaries
Emergency Medical Technicians and
Paramedics