Time for change: Breathing life back into the MENA
region agricultural transformation
ZEF
Bonn, Germany.
5 May 2016
Andrew Noble
ICARDA Deputy Director General
Presentation Outline
• The challenges
facing MENA.
• Addressing the
challenges through
an agricultural lens
– examples of
interventions.
• Concluding remarks.
1
The challenges facing the MENA Region
• Population growth.
• Rapid and uncontrolled
urbanization.
• High rates of
unemployment.
• Weak institutions and
political systems in
transition – failed and
fragile states.
• Disenfranchised rural
communities –
predominantly agrarian
economies.
• Climate Change and
Resource Constraints
(water)!
2
A general sense of disappear.
Water Use in MENA Region
Actual Renewable Water Resources (ARWR) per capita
35
Australia/New Zealand
MENA the world’s most waterscarce region
34.5
Latin America & Caribbean
20.3
North America
Region
•
13
Europe & Central Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
8
East Asia & Pacific (& Japan & Koreas)
5.6
Western Europe
5.4
South Asia
•
Highest water withdrawal is in
MENA
2.7
Middle East & North Africa
1.1
0
10
20
30
40
ARWR per capita (1000m 3/yr)
Total renewable water resources withdrawn (%)
On-farm water use efficiency
is as low as 40%, suggesting
over-irrigation of scarce
resource
72.7
South Asia
25.1
Western Europe
10.3
East Asia & Pacific (& Japan & Koreas)
9.4
North America
Region
•
Middle East & North Africa
8
Europe & Central Asia
6.2
Australia/New Zealand
3.2
Sub-Saharan Africa
2.2
Latin America & Caribbean
1.4
0
Percent of total renewable water
resources withdrawn
10
20
30
40
Percent
50
60
70
80
Increased dependency on imports for food security
Global Trade: Net cereal imports (in million MT) by region, 2010
Safety nets/social protection systems are challenged by food price shocks.
Former Soviet
Union
+16.1
+91.2
+17.5
Europe
North America
-58.8
-65.8
Asia
-18.0
MENA
Region
+6.3
Latin America and
the Caribbean
Sources: adapted from USDA
2011
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Oceania
+18.6
+
-
Net Exports
Net Imports
Pulses deficit regions
Global pulse trade at present: almost 12 million tons
in Million MT by region (2011)
Relative change of mean annual precipitation
1980/1999 to 2080/2099
Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099, scenario A1b, average of 21 GCMs
(compiled by GIS Unit ICARDA, based on partial maps in Christensen et al., 2007)
Addressing the Challenges of Food Security in MENA
While it is possible to reduce
spending on imports by
reducing waste in supply
chains, trying to import much
less by producing much more
is likely to be too costly for
most countries. Jobbins and
Henley, 2015.
Is this statement true?
7
Envisaging Solutions: Crop Yield Potential for Rainfed Wheat
Environmental conditions in MENA limit the potential to
grow food – is this correct?
Crop Yield Potential
F3: GSP-110*20
8
The Syrian Case – Cause for cautious optimism
Impact of Science, Technology
formerly and
wheat
Enabling Policy Environment in Syria
 Syria, a
importer became selfsufficient in wheat
production – and
eventually a wheat
exporter.
 A combination of new
high-yielding varieties,
supplemental
irrigation, inputs of
fertilizers & herbicides
and supportive
Government policies.
Impact of the Sustainable Intensification on Wheat Production in
Syria
Wheat Production in Syria
Impact of(Thousand
the Sustainable Intensification
Tons)
on Wheat Production in Syria
6000
Drought started in Syria in 2008
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
10
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
0
1. Conservation Agriculture: Approach to Coping with Climate Change
• Minimum soil disturbance stubble
retention
• Direct seeding (affordable machinery)
Benefits
• Savings in time, energy (fuel), machinery
wear
• Benefits soil structure and Moisture
• Timely sowing
• Higher yield potential
• less soil erosion
11
Local fabrication of zero-tillage seeders: Part of the solution
Imported seeders
Price: US$ 30,000 to $60,000
Amazon – imported
Syria-El Bab - local
Syria-Kamishley - local
Locally manufactured seeders
(Iraq, Syria, Morocco)
Price: US$ 1500 to 6000
12
To scale out – need for service providers
Opportunities for
the emergence for
new business
models to service
the sector.
Seeder training
Erbil 2013
13
Mean yield early ZT vs late CT over four years in Syria
Mean Grain Yield kg/ha
3,000
18%
20%
12%
15%
CT Late
ZT Early
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Wheat
Chickpea
2008/09 – 2011/12
14
Barley
Lentil
Adoption 2005 to 2011
Significant business opportunities for Manufacturing and Service Sectors
800
Iraq area
Syria area
Iraq farmers
Syria farmers
14000
12000
700
600
10000
500
8000
400
6000
300
4000
200
2000
100
0
Number of farmers
Area of all winter crops (ha)
16000
0
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
Cropping season
2010-11
70-80% of area was true adoption, where farmers owned/rented/borrowed a ZT seeder
15
2. Productuve and Sustainable Rangeland - Governance
• The key to sustainable management of communal rangelands is
developing socially acceptable institutional arrangements
• Developing in Tunisia a specific pastoral code for managing collective
rangelands
• Local self-governance systems (Himas) can act as innovation platforms for
ecological sustainability, social fairness and economic growth
2500
Biomass (kg DM/ha)
2135
2000
1500
1000
500
0
236
Unprotected rangelandControl
area
16
Rested area
under local governance
Rest
Sustainable development of landscape depressions in pastoral
ecosystems
1000
800
2
Density (Plants/m)
900
Density
28 fold
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Protected
Grazed
Biomass (kg/h)
2500
Biomass
5 fold
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Protected
Grazed
Impact of 2 years protection
Water Harvesting in Marginal Land Agro-Ecosystem
• Micro-catchments
mechanized contour laser planting
• Effective water harvesting
• Grazing management
• 40-50% increase in rainwater
productivity
Options for crop-livestock integration in cereal-based rainfed systems
Atriplex species in Alley-cropping systems with cereals
Alley cropping Benefits:
• Provides fodder in times of scarcity.
• Provides rich and diverse diet for livestock.
• Reduces the need for chemical fertilizers
and improves soil fertility.
• Reduces erosion in irrigated and rainfed
areas.
19
Cactus – a dryland multi-purpose plant
Advantages of cactus:
• Drought tolerant
• Evergreen habit
• Easy to establish, to maintain & to use
• Multipurpose use
• Fodder potential
• Resolve livestock watering
• High palatability & high in soluble carbohydrates
• Introduction of cactus pear to several countries including Tunisia, Jordan,
Syria, India and Pakistan.
• Promising
and well adapted accessions are being disseminated to farmers.
20
Sustainable rangeland management contributes to increasing incomes
Technologies for improved yoghurt & cheese processing
Problems:
 Eye formation
 Sourness and/or off flavor
 Risk of Brucellosis
Solutions:
 Milk pasteurization prior to
cheese making
 Use of thermometers for right
temperature for pasteurization
The benefits:
 Hygiene & high quality product
reducing risks to transmission of
diseases
 Improved marketability and
increased net income
Establishing small cheese
making enterprises –
potential markets into
Europe
Non-Traditional Sources of Feed: Feed Blocks
 Improved feeding management
• increasing feed use efficiency by balancing
diets for protein and energy
• Provide sources of feed during the dry season
 Better utilization of crop byproducts
• e.g. urea treated straw: wheat straw
reaches the quality of lentil straw
 Better utilization of agro-industry
by-products
• e.g. sugar beet pulp, cotton seed cake,
molasses, tomato pulps, olive leaves and
cake, etc.
• e.g. feed blocks as one technical option to
produce homogenous mixtures
22
Integrated Livestock/Rangelands/Crops Production Systems
Successful
Technologies
By-products - feed blocks
On-farm feed production
Flock management
Cactus & fodder shrubs
Barley production
Natural pastures & rangeland management
3. Raised-Bed Planting in Irrigated Systems
Advantages of moving to raised bed technologies
FP: furrows irrigation
FlP: flat bed irrigation
RBP: raised bed irrigation
Raised-bed wheat improvement package –Egypt






Reduce applied water by 30%
Increased yields by 25%
Reduced seed rate by 50%
Increased WUE by 72%
70,000 feddan in Egypt in two years
Egyptian government investing $1.7 million in
promoting.
 Cannot keep up with demand.
4. Breeding Crops for Drought Tolerance and WUE
Example: Synthetic wheat, tolerance to heat and drought
Parent Variety
Yield t/ha
% recurrent
parent
Cham 6*2/SW2
1.6
147
Cham 6*2/SW2
1.5
138
Cham-6
1.10
100
Attila-7
1.3
-
Yield of “synthetic derivatives” compared to parents
under drought stress. (Tel Hadya 2008 -- 211 mm)
Genetic Adaptation: Heat and Drought Tolerance of Wheat
New varieties developed with
management packages
Hub countries: 15 varieties released to
farmers :
4 released in 2014
11 candidates in 2015
Merits: Highly adapted, heat tolerant,
good quality, disease resistant with yields
of 5-7t/ha
Ethiopia:
- 2 released in 2014
- 3 candidates in
2015
check
Improved
8
6
Sudan
- 6 candidates in
2015
4
2
0
Nigeria:
Ethiopia Sudan
28
Nigeria
- 2 released in 2014
- 2 candidates in 2015
Breeding for enhancing Water Productivity by changing the cropping season
Winter vs. Spring Chickpea in West Asia & North Africa
The biggest challenge is seed delivery systems – opportunities for young entrepreneurs
Spring sown crop
Mature winter crop
Concluding Remarks
Agriculture in MENA is and will be the dominant employer
and contributing element to GDP; it is a neglect sector in
these economies;
We can reduce the need for food imports by transforming
the agricultural sector – it part of the solution to a ‘wicked
problem’.
There are significant opportunities in developing business
models to support local manufacturing, service providers
and added value;
MENA contains productive agro-ecosystems and provides
significant opportunities for sustainable development. How
we manage them will be key to living with future climates.
Thank you