GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND
CANADA’S WATER
CANMORE, ALBERTA,
21 Feb. 2013
J. P. (Jim) Bruce, O.C., FRSC
The Earth’s atmosphere: thin but crucial
to a favourable climate for life.
There is a natural greenhouse effect which makes Earth
warm enough to be livable (+15°C).
Sunlight
That greenhouse effect is due to GHGs in the
atmosphere (water vapor, CO2, CH4 and others –
represent less than 1% of atm.)
Reflected energy
Emitted Energy
Greenhouse Gases CO2,
CH4, H2Ov, N2O,CFCs
Heat
Absorbed energy
Heat
The concentration of carbon dioxide is
higher today than in a million years.
Mountain glaciers around the world are
retreating
ATHABASCA GLACIER, ROCKY MOUNTIANS, CANADA
1917
2005
Ref: IPCC WGI Fig 4.15
Luckman and Kavanagh, Ambio, 2000
30
20
10
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
Winters 1973 -2008
2010
Lake St. Clair
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
Winters 1973 -2008
2010
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
Winters 1973 -2008
2010
Lake Michigan
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
Winters 1973 -2008
2010
S e a s o n a l A v e ra g e I c e C o v e r (% )
40
Lake Huron
S e a s o n a l A v e ra g e I c e C o v e r (% )
50
S e a s o n a l A v e ra g e I c e C o v e r (% )
60
S e a s o n a l A v e ra g e I c e C o v e r (% )
S e a s o n a l A v e ra g e I c e C o v e r (% )
S e a s o n a l A v e ra g e I c e C o v e r (% )
Lake Erie
Lake Superior
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
Winters 1973 -2008
Linear Trends
5-year moving average
50
St. Clair
40
Erie
30
Huron
20
Michigan
10
0
1970
Superior
1980 1990 2000
Winters 1973 -2008
2010
2010
Charles Tarnocai/Agriculture Canada
Figure 1. Comparison of recent estimates of
sea level rise in 2100,
relative to 1990 levels.
PEW Center 2009
New York
Toronto, August 2005
Pangnirtung 2008
TRENDS IN REPORTED EVENTS / Per Year
from Tiempo #70
NATIONAL ROUND TABLE on
ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY
Final Report, Oct. 2012 (after 25 years)
 Impacts of climate change on Canada to
2100: up to $43 bill/yr
 Low carbon goods and services global:
$339 bill 2010
$3,900 - $8,300 bill 2050
 CANADA IS UNPREPARED TO COMPETE
SOME ADAPTATION OPTIONS
– WATER QUANTITY
Increased level of flash flood
protection e.g. TRCA-15-20⁰
Improve capacity of culverts and
storm water systems
For low water periods institute
demand-side management
SOME ADAPTATIONS
- WATER QUALITY AND HEALTH
Target erosion – prone areas of watersheds
Strengthen polluted runoff reduction
measures - e.g. No Till
Larger buffer zones for streams and
wellheads
More storage in storm water systems
- Permeable pavements, etc.
- reduce overflow to sanitary sewage
Alerts to treatment plant operators
CONCLUSIONS:
1.
2.
3.
4.
ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE IS HERE
IMPACTS WILL INCREASE FOR MANY DECADES
WATER SECTOR FACING MAJOR IMPACTS
GHG EMISSION REDUCTIONS NEEDED TO SLOW
RATE OF CHANGE
5. PORTFOLIO OF ADAPTATION MEASURES NEED IN
WATER SECTOR
“Climate change is the greatest economic
challenge of the 21st century”
Christine Lagarde, Director International Monetary Fund