Peter Brown, Assistant Director,
Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
(203) 535-6203
Rubenstein Associates, Inc.
Public Relations
Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026
FOR RELEASE: JANUARY 9, 2012
ROMNEY HAS BIG GOP LIKELY VOTER LEAD IN FLORIDA,
QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;
MOST VOTERS SAY THEY MIGHT CHANGE THEIR MIND
With 36 percent of Florida Republican likely primary voters, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt
Romney has a double-digit lead three weeks before the nation’s first big-state presidential
primary, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. But 54 percent of GOP
primary voters say they still might change their mind.
Twelve points back in the Republican pack is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with
24 percent, followed by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with 16 percent, the
independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul
is at 10 percent with 5 percent for Texas Gov. Rick Perry and 2 percent for former ambassador
Jon Huntsman. This first look at likely primary voters, a more select group, can’t be compared
with earlier surveys of registered voters.
There is almost no gender gap in the primary selections.
“Gov. Mitt Romney has a double-digit lead in Florida among likely primary voters. But
the primary is three weeks away and the results from New Hampshire and South Carolina could
shake things up in the Sunshine State,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac
University Polling Institute. “With more than half of voters saying they might change their
minds and more than 50 percent of them backing candidates perceived as more conservative,
Romney could be vulnerable if those voters settle on one candidate.”
Romney is the best-liked candidate among Florida likely GOP primary voters, with a
73 – 14 percent favorability rating. Santorum gets a 59 – 8 percent favorability, while 33 percent
of likely voters don’t know enough about him to form an opinion. Gingrich gets a 59 – 29
percent favorability, while Paul has a negative 34 – 47 percent favorability.
-more-
Quinnipiac University Poll/January 9, 2012 – page 2
Among Florida self-professed Tea Party members, Romney and Gingrich are tied with
32 percent each, followed by Santorum with 19 percent, Paul with 7 percent and Perry with 4
percent.
Tea Party members give Gingrich a 76 – 18 percent favorability, with 72 – 7 percent for
Santorum and 72 – 19 percent for Romney.
The race is closer among white evangelical Christians: Romney gets 28 percent to
Gingrich’s 26 percent, with 20 percent for Santorum.
From January 4 – 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 560 Republican likely primary
voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and
cell phones.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia
and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more data or RSS feed– http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or
follow us on Twitter.
2
1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held
today, and the candidates were: Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Ron
Paul, and Jon Huntsman, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean
more toward Perry, Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, Paul, or Huntsman? (Table includes Leaners
and early voters)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS...........................
WhtBrnAgnEvngl TEA PARTY
Tot
Men
Wom
Con
Mod
Yes
No
Yes
No
Perry
Gingrich
Romney
Santorum
Paul
Huntsman
SMONE ELSE(VOL)
DK/NA
5%
24
36
16
10
2
7
5%
26
36
17
11
2
3
5%
21
37
15
10
2
10
7%
28
35
17
7
6
1%
15
41
12
15
7
8
6%
26
28
20
9
1
10
3%
23
42
13
9
3
6
4%
32
32
19
7
7
6%
20
38
14
12
3
6
1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change
your mind before the election?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
CANDIDATE CHOICE Q1
Tot
NG
MR
RS
Mind made up
Might change
DK/NA
44%
54
1
46%
53
2
44%
56
1
41%
57
2
5. Is your opinion of - Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS...........................
WhtBrnAgnEvngl TEA PARTY
Tot
Men
Wom
Con
Mod
Yes
No
Yes
No
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
59%
8
33
-
65%
8
27
-
52%
9
39
-
67%
6
26
-
45%
14
40
-
68%
5
27
-
56%
9
34
-
72%
7
20
-
54%
9
37
-
6. Is your opinion of - Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about
him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS...........................
WhtBrnAgnEvngl TEA PARTY
Tot
Men
Wom
Con
Mod
Yes
No
Yes
No
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
34%
47
19
1
33%
50
16
1
34%
43
21
2
29%
52
17
1
41%
37
21
2
28%
51
19
1
34%
49
16
1
29%
56
15
-
36%
43
19
1
3
7. Is your opinion of - Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS............................
WhtBrnAgnEvngl TEA PARTY
Tot
Men
Wom
Con
Mod
Yes
No
Yes
No
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
59%
29
9
2
66%
25
8
1
52%
34
10
4
68%
25
5
2
44%
42
11
4
67%
25
8
1
59%
33
5
2
76%
18
5
1
53%
35
10
3
8. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS...........................
WhtBrnAgnEvngl TEA PARTY
Tot
Men
Wom
Con
Mod
Yes
No
Yes
No
Favorable
Unfavorable
Hvn't hrd enough
REFUSED
73%
14
10
3
74%
15
11
1
73%
14
9
4
77%
13
9
2
67%
14
14
5
72%
19
7
2
74%
13
11
2
72%
19
8
1
74%
12
10
3
4