NPS Climate Change
Response Leadership:
Service Wide, Regional, and @
Devils Postpile National Monument
Climate Change Refugia as a Tool
for Climate Adaptation
Mountain Climate
September 17, 2014
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Devils Postpile
National Monument
Conservation and Climate Challenges =
Extraordinary Opportunities
Nestled near the Sierra Divide, Near
Headwaters of the San Joaquin River
YOSE
DEPO
SEKI
Ecotone
Of Great
Basin
starting
at
Eastern
Sierra
And
West
Slope
Sierra
Nevada
Devils Postpile : Near Headwaters &
Importance of the San Joaquin River
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DEVIL’S
POSTPILE
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Upper Middle Fork
of the San Joaquin
River
One of two largest
rivers in California
Important source of
water for agriculture,
hydropower,
drinking water
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Geographic Context
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Surrounded by Inyo NF
Gateway to over 2 million acres of
wilderness; 80% designated wilderness
John Muir Trail and Pacific Crest Trail
Part of a broader visitor experience
On Sierra Hydrological Divide
“Scientific Value and
Public Interests”
On July 6, 1911
DEVIL POSTPILE NATIONAL
MONUMENT
CALIFORNIA
Was designated to :
Preserve the natural formations known
as the Devil Postpile and Rainbow Falls
for their scientific value and public
interest
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Purpose of Devils Postpile N.M.
Preserves and protects the glacially exposed columns
of the Devils Postpile, the scenic Rainbow Falls, and
the wilderness landscape of the upper Middle Fork San
Joaquin River in the Sierra Nevada for scientific value,
public interest and inspiration.
GMP: FRVs/Desired Conditions
related to Climate Change
❖ Upper Middle Fork of San
Joaquin river, riparian
corridor, and wetlands
❖ Component of larger
ecosystem
❖ Opportunities for Science
and Learning
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DEPO Science Day as part of GMP planning,
and de facto Science Technical Committee
Desired Conditions
Potential
Management Actions /Common All Alternatives
The NPS continues to Provide and foster stateof-the art science to better understand the
impacts of climate change and to develop
science-based adaptive management
strategies for natural and cultural resource
managers.
Develop and sustain a historical archive of
the climate, weather, hydrologic and
ecological conditions in the past, present,
and future and integrate these disciplines
to feed into modeling, adaptation strategies
and mitigations.
The NPS engages in partnerships to
implement projects and activities that
contribute to the conservation of species,
natural communities, and lands and waters
placed at risk by changing climate conditions.
Seek research opportunities with agency
and academic partners to improve
understanding of effects of climate within
monument and watershed.
FRV: Upper Middle Fork San Joaquin River (corridor):
A free flowing river, wetlands, riparian areas and other
and communities.
Potential Activity: implement projects and activities
that contribute to the conservation of species, natural
communities, and lands and waters placed at risk by
changing climate conditions.
Soda Springs Meadow
Provide and foster state-of-the art science to
better understand the impacts of climate
change and to develop science-based adaptive
management strategies
Wetland Inventory and Condition Assessment
NPS- 2008
8.0% of monument wetlands
(other areas in SIEN average 2%)
Potential Activity
Develop and sustain a historical archive of the
climate, weather, hydrologic and ecological
conditions in the past, present, and future and
integrate these disciplines to feed into
modeling, adaptation strategies and
mitigations
Mammoth Gap receives higher precip
The high amount of precipitation that comes up the SJ Valley and
hits
Mammoth
Mountain
that runs S.
as surface
water
in creeks and
and
SWE
than
other
Sierra
points,
springs, and groundwater that nourishes meadows and seeps.
and known for only E. Sierra Red Fir.
Why is there such a high % of wetlands. Some factors may include :
*The high amount of precipitation that comes up the SJ Valley and hits
Mammoth Mountain that runs as surface water in creeks and springs, and
groundwater that nourishes meadows and seeps.
Snow percolating through porous volcanic rock contributes to high % of
wetlands and springs
*Possible cold air pooling in the valley with reduction in evaporation.
San Joaquin River Valley under 10K
corridor along ecotone and high
biodiversity
2001 Vascular Plant increased known species from 150: to 380
800 acres/less than 1000 foot elevation range
Additional Inventories included:
Invertebrates 100+ Genus,
100+Species of Birds
33 Vertebrates
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Cool, Wet,
Shady longer
Surrounded by High
Peaks
Ice box Canyon….
Climate Change in California:
Cause for Concern
Increasing Temperatures,
Decreasing Precipitation
By 2050, temperatures are projected to increase an additional 1.8 to 5.4 °F;-Temperature changes in next 30-40 years largely determined by past emissions.
Warming will accelerate mid-century to end of century.
August 2014, California has been classified by the US Drought Monitor as
experiencing severe, extreme, or exceptional drought, including the Sierra
Nevada to be in the highest category of exceptional drought.
Impacts on the Sierra Nevada :
Cause for Concern
Precipitation
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Hotter, Drier=
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Shrinking Sierra snowpack=
greater water deficit during the
seasonal summer drought
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Ecosystems and species stressed
by water deficit
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Impacts on the Sierra Nevadas :
Snowpack
A Conservative climate model predicts a 30 –70% reduction in
seasonal snowpack while another predicts a 73 – 90% reduction by
the end of this century.
 Faster spring snowmelt
 Decrease in spring and summer flows
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Sierra Nevadas : Impacts on Flora and
Fauna
Phenology – The timing of life cycle events influenced
by seasons and climate.
Example :
The Spring
Snowmelt Recession
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Sierra Nevadas :
Impacts on Flora and Fauna
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Changing habitat variables
Extinction
Invasive species
Highly flexible and
adaptable
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Sierra Nevadas: Forests
Climate change
interacts with:
 Fire
 Fire suppression
policies
 Insect infestations
 Pathogens
 Drought
Figure source: Allen et al. 2010: A global overview of drought and heatinduced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests.
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/forests
http://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5415086.pdf
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Sierra Nevadas : Forests
Example : Mountain
Pine Beetle
Dendroctonus
ponderosae
Photo : http://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_MEDIA/stelprdb5415084.jpg
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Is California’s Current Drought Caused by
Climate Change??????
 California is in a ThreeYear Drought
Water Year vs. Calendar
Year
 100% of California in the
Three Highest Intensities of
Drought
 State of Drought
Emergency declared by the
governor in January, US
Drought extreme in
August.
Whether current drought from CC,
the current snowpack situation, droughts, and extreme
weather events will become more common in the future.
And the impacts of drought are more severe with a warmer
climate.
Historical 10th
percentile
2014: April 1st snowpack survey at
38% average in DEPO/Central Sierra
Impacts to DEPO from CC
1. Impacts to Riparian corridor of the Middle Fork San
Joaquin River and associated wetland habitats.
2. Increased Air Pollution and impacts to vegetation and
wildlife.
3. Impacts to most important meadow: Soda Springs
4. Fire frequency and severity.
5. Vulnerability to invasive
species.
6. Extended visitation season,
greater numbers of visitors, more
impacts
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Priorities
Each of the six concerns are of high
importance.
Fortunately, three of the concerns are
being addressed by intensifying
efforts with existing programs to
increase resilence of ecosystems in
response to climate.
Invasive removal with 2 resource
positions and volunteers
Visitor Impacts with indicators and
standards for extent social trails and
mitigation measures. ,
■ Fire
EXPERIEN
C E Yreduction
O U R A M E R Iwith
CA
and hazard
fuel
Planned hazard fuel reductions
with pile burning implemented
March 2014
E X P E R I EBroadcast
N C E Y Oburn plan 2015 to 2016
Unprecedented Challenge & Extraordinary Opportunity:
After addressing Resilience
integrating management strategies of Resistance by prioritizing
Refugia
A) Refugia: Physical/Ecological or Both?
Physical environments that are less affected by climate
change than other areas (e.g., due to local currents,
geographic location, etc.) and are thus a “refuge” from
climate change for organisms (June 4.4 SAR- report)
Ecological definition are areas with “favorable
environmental features, in which … populations can
survive outside their main distribution…protected
from unfavorable regional environmental conditions”.
B) US Climate Science Program recognizes: The value
of National Parks' as minimally disturbed refugia for
natural processes and biodiversity. Parks are
becoming more important as surrounding landscapes
become increasingly altered by human activities.
Priorities Needing Action:
Innovation
Understanding Ecological resources
present & future Refugia:
 MF San Joaquin River &
 Riparian corridor
 Biodiversity
 Soda Springs Meadow
Actions:
 Identify Refugia & vulnerabilities
 Develop Adaptation Strategies
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The Committee was chaired by Rita Colwell, Chair of Canon US Life Sciences, Inc.
and an oceanographer by training. The committee also included expertise in
atmospheric sciences, wildlife biology, fisheries, integrative biology, ecology,
indigenous cultures, natural history, chemistry, and human ecology.
best available
science, accurate fidelity
to the law
longterm public interest
Revisiting Leopold
Revisiting Leopold
Leopold Revisited Report: From Science and
NPS Climate Change Response
Strategy
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Director Jon Jarvis
stated in the CCRS:
Global climate change
is fundamentally the
greatest threat to the
integrity of our
national parks that we
have ever faced.
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Science
Objective 3.3: Develop criteria with
other federal, state, and local partners
and programs to measure and
evaluate core concepts that may be
used to direct adaptation strategies.
The U.S. Climate Change Science
Program recommends specific approaches for adaptation,
increasing
ecosystem
resilience
and protecting
refugia .
The NPS needs to verify the scientific
foundation of these concepts and
identify criteria to evaluate their
performance so that they may be
applied appropriately in restoration
and protection of park resources.
With no Funding?
How
to
Develop
DEPO
Response?
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Hydrology
Air Quality
Cold Air Pooling
Refugia
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Partnerships: Observe, Engage,
Invite, Appreciate
Partnerships make all
this research and
monitoring possible
How did DEPO develop
 Observations to share
 Questions to ask
 Participation at events
 Invite to monument
 Offer an opportunity:
Large enough to be meaningful,
small enough to be manageable
Opportunity for Science and
Learning and
How?
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Developed
Partnerships
research and
monitoring possible
PSW, Scripps,
USGS,
UC Merced, St.
Mary’s College,
DRI, NWS, CADWR
Air Quality Monitoring – 2007- 2013
Results (preliminary):
■ Pollution comes from more
populated regions of CA
■ PM 2.5 levels were unhealthy
at times due to smoke from
nearby wildland fires
■ During some smoke events
and weather conditions ozone
levels decreased
■ Differences in ozone levels
between vegetated and nonvegetated site
PM 2.5
PM 2.5 levels were unhealthy at times due to smoke from
nearby wildland fires
Used real-time data to provide air quality advisories for
the public.
Question if dangerous for human health, what impacts to
vegetation and wildlife. Research focus now.. On
vegetation and Jeffrey Pines.
Cold Air Pooling (CAP) Distribution to
Inform Refugia
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Modeling (Lundquist et al.
2008) indicated CAP in DEPO
Study with partners USGS
and Scripps Institute of
Oceanography began in 2008
to verify CAP and determine
characteristics
■ Timing (diurnal, season,
weather pattern etc.)
■ Depth
■ Frequency
■ Magnitude
■ Over 100 temperature
sensors in trees across
an elevational gradient
CAP as Component in Climate Change
Refugia ?
• Unknown effect – may
be more buffered or
more vulnerable
• Components of
refugia
– Moisture
– Cooler
– Riparian and
wetland habitat
– Shaded
– Spatial Diversity
• Refugia Key for
adaptation strategies
with some if not all
• Physical Factors .
Regardless of CAP,
RSS Goal is to
Soda Springs
Meadow as a
focal area for
management as a
meadow refugium
DEPO RSS Objective for
Meadows & Climate
Change
Activities
Target: Met:
Actions Needed: Priority:
High quality meadow
habitat
Direct management: Survey
lodgepole distribution and develop
strategy to manage conifer
recruitment in wet meadow habitat
No loss of meadow habitat to lodgepole
encroachment.
Surveyed, conditions not met.
Removal strategy with NEPA?
Medium
Soda Springs Meadow
as a focal area for
management as a
meadow refugium
Administrative & Direct management:
Develop management strategies for
Soda Springs Meadow; develop and
compare different management, and
recommend strategies for east and
west sides of Soda Springs Meadow.
Implement by 2017.
Seek funding, whether received or not,
Prioritize for DEPO Ecologist.
Complete analysis by 2016.
Implement by 2017.
Actions need to be initiated.
High.
Through Research and
Collaboration:
Investigate the potential
of applying NPS CCRS
Goal 3.3 to identify
potential refugia and to
manage for their
protection.
Administrative management:
*Participate in UC Berkeley workshop
and contribute to publication on
Management Implications for Refugia
Management.
*Apply for funding proposals both
through NPS SCC and collaborate with
partners in external sources as DEPO
Case Study for 12 Step plan.
Participate in workshop and publication.
Develop and submit funding proposals.
In process.
High.
Opportunities for Science
and Learning
Research activities in the
monument further
monument management
goals and scientific
understanding
With university and agency
Collaboration for watershed level
partners, increase understanding of study of CAP
CAP phenomena in the UMF San Integrate existing data
Joaquin and ecological
hydrological, meteorological, and
implications, including potential of ecological data about the
management of the monument
monument
and adjacent lands as a climate
Partial, ongoing
change refugium
High
Collaboration - With university and
agency partners, and through data
collection and modeling, better
understand of air quality and
impacts of pollutants in the UMF
San Joaquin and ecological
implications, including potential of
management of the monument
and adjacent lands as a climate
change refugium
Distribution of publication of 20072008 publication , and followup
publication with 2013-14 results
Existing data integrated
Partial, ongoing
High
Climate Change Refugia Workshop
May 28-30, 2014 UC Berkeley
❖ Interface between natural resource
managers and university and federal
scientists to clarify whether and how
refugia can be used as a tool for
management and conservation
❖ Produce a review paper that highlights
the use of climate refugia as a tool for
management and conservation
Physical basis for geographic locations likely to experience
reduced rates of warming
Characteristics of
Physical Locations
Physical Explanation and examples
(with potential caveats)
Caveats
Near/in a large body of
water
Coastal areas will warm at a slower rate
than inland areas due to the high heat
capacity of water; Deep lakes will warm at
a slower rate than shallower lakes
Sea level rise may inundate some
habitat
Near a water source (riparian areas,
wetlands, where groundwater rises
near the surface)
Latent heat flux ( evaporation) results in cooler
temperatures than sensible heat flux (which directly heats
the surface; Many organisms can cool themselves (or
survive warmer temperatures with access to water).
Some water sources, such as glaciers, may
suddenly run out; Predictions of future
precipitation changes are uncertain, so overall
water availability in the future may change
Shaded (by overlying or equator-ward As temperatures warm, both snowmelt and phenology are
vegetation or surrounding
expected to shift earlier in the season, a time when the sun
topography)
is lower in the sky, and the difference between shaded and
sunny sides is greater (Lundquist and Flint 2006).
Warming forest cover emits more longwave
radiation, and so some forested areas may actually
experience greater rates of winter warming,
accelerating snowmelt rates (Cristea et al.
2013). Areas in the shade without forest cover
overhead will not experience this effect (Lawler
and Link 2011), suggesting forest strips or gaps
provide better refugia than uniform cover.
Physical basis for geographic locations likely to experience
reduced rates of warming
Characteristics of Physical
Locations
Physical Explanation and examples
(with potential caveats)
Caveats
Local areas within
topographically complex
terrain where changes in
atmospheric circulation result
in local changes that offset
climate change.
Cold air pools exposed to increased
frequency of high pressure systems
(Pepin et al. 2011); Downwind slopes
exposed to decreasing frequency
and/or speeds of downslope winds
(Lundquist and Cayan 2007)
Global climate
models do not
currently
demonstrate high
certainty in how such
circulation patterns
will change, making
predictions difficult
Areas where snow tends to
pile up (either locally or
within the upslope watercontributing area)
Deep snow drifts provide insulation to
the snow below and provide water
later in the season. (So heterogenous
snowcover is preferable to uniform
snowcover). These drifts can occur in
downwind topographic depressions, in
granite fissures, or at the base on an
avalanche shoot or a topographic
slope too steep to accumulate snow
If all snow changes
to rain, this won’t
help anymore.
Review of Team
Of Management
Implications
Working Group
And 12 Step Table
Climate Change Refugia as a Tool for Climate Adaptation:Review and Assessment
Table of Steps for Managing for Climate Refugia
Draft preparing for submission in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
:
Step 4
Assess vulnerability to climate change and
other stressors
Vulnerable to: changes in local water balance
due to increased evapotranspiration and/or
decreased precipitation; changes in duration
and amount of snow cover; earlier
melt/runoff; reduced water table in
groundwater; loss of vegetation canopy due
to fire and/or drought; invasive species; and
insect infestations.
Step 5
Determine refugia likelihood and key traits
Likelihood of refugia: high locally & watershed
scale
Potential Refugia Traits:
Cool & wet environment along riparian
corridor
CAP dynamics currently strong North/South
riparian corridor straddled between high
mountains
Spatial heterogeneity
Convergence of bioregions
Groundwater reservoir in volcanic rocks
Step 6
MAP
of
CAP
for
Map refugia
DEPO/Upper Middle Fork of
Consider scale (both spatial and temporal)
San Joaquin watershed
Map connectivity of refugia if possible or
(Lundquist et al. 2008)
desired
Map connectivity of CAP
Test predictive ability where possible based on
and meadows
historical & current field data ep 6
Validation and analysis of CAP at fine scale
spatial/temporal topoclimatic and
microclimatic models using distributed sensor
networks using 5+ years data (NPS, USGS,
Scripps Institute of Oceanography)
Step 7
Prioritize refugia based on desired
co-benefits or restrictions
CAP sites that coincide with meadows, species
of concern, threatened aquatic habitat, habitat
heterogeneity, and migratory corridors across
the Upper Middle Fork San Joaquin watershed
Step 8
Common to all Alternatives
Identify land owners and relevant policies for
managing refugia
Capitalize on common management goals to
coordinate and leverage efforts and minimize
redundancy. Recognize conflicting agency
missions and prioritize resolution of conflicts
that endanger common goals
Step 9
Remove invasive species
Maintain/restore hydrologic function and
regime including riverbank, meadow, &
wetland restoration.
Maintain hydrologic connectivity (surface and
groundwater) by managing internal/external
threats.
Maintain/restore connectivity of habitats.
Manage fuel hazard/fire and reduce risk of
canopy loss by thinning, firebreaks, pile
burning.
Manage visitor impacts in sensitive areas.
Determine ecological “canaries” that could
indicate a change.
Identify suite of potential strategies/ tools to
meet goals, considering: refugia, connectivity,
management type, time frame
Step 10
Identify and prioritize projects within/across
jurisdictions to implement management
actions
Maintain/restore hydrologic
function and regime including
riverbank, meadow, & wetland
restoration.
Maintain hydrologic
connectivity (surface and
groundwater) by managing
internal/external threats.
Maintain/restore connectivity
of habitats.
Manage fuel hazard/fire and
reduce risk of canopy loss by
thinning, firebreaks, pile
burning.
Manage visitor impacts in
sensitive areas.
Determine ecological
“canaries” that could indicate a
change.
Remove invasive species
Feedback loop and adaptive
management
Step 11
Monitor predicted refugia and non-refugia
locations to enable adaptive learning
Step 12
Shift locations and strategies as needed as we
learn more
Monitor traits used to identify potential
refugia; thermal and hydrologic regimes (steps
3 & 4)
Monitor risk of disturbance
Monitor success of prioritized projects from
step 8, including species’ responses and trends
Repeat step 5 based on shifting values and
targets
Consider additional tools identified in step 7
Re-assess prioritizations (Step 8)
NPS: Refugia are Integral to Public and
Servicewide Hope in Challenging Times
Science Education:
With Understanding,
Comes Appreciation
With Appreciation, Comes Stewardship
PWR Climate Change:
Empowered to Advocate
Champions & Toolkit Groups
Engaging Students in Climatebased Education
Take climate-based research going on in the monument
(and the Sierra) and help students tie it to climate
change using hands on techniques and curriculumbased lesson plans.
Project Elements
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Project Elements
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Thank You to our Partners !
■
PSW: Connie Millar, Andrzej
Bytnerowicz , Bob Westfall,
Diane Delaney,
USGS: Mike Dettinger,
Scripps Institute of
Oceanography/UCSD: Dan
Cayan, Douglas Alden,
Univ Wash. Jessica Lundquist
Univ Mass/UC Berkeley: Toni
Lyn Morelli.