AGENDA FOR THE
TWENTY-SIXTH PACIFIC CLIMATE WORKSHOP
Asilomar State Conference Grounds, Pacific Grove, California
March 3-6, 2013
The Pacific Climate Workshop (PACLIM) is a multidisciplinary workshop that broadly
addresses the climatic phenomena occurring in the eastern Pacific Ocean and western North
America. The purpose of the workshop is to understand climate effects in this region by
bringing together specialists from diverse fields including physical, social, and biological
sciences. Time scales from to the millennial-scale Pleistocene variability to current temperature
and precipitation records are addressed in oral and poster presentations.
The theme of the 2013 PACLIM workshop addresses the impact that long-term changes in
climate have on the number and magnitude of extreme weather events. The remainder of the
meeting is devoted to a wide range of climate-related topics.
The atmosphere of the workshop is intentionally informal, and room and board are provided for
many of the participants. This year, the workshop was organized by representatives of the U.S.
Geological Survey and U.S. Forest Service. The funding and other sources of support come
from several agencies:
Desert Research Institute: Alan Gertler
All oral presentations will be in the FRED FARR FORUM and posters will be in the KILN
ROOM.
SUNDAY NIGHT, March 3th
Moderator: Scott Starratt
CURRENT EVENTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON REGISTRATION
600-700
DINNER
700-715
OPENING REMARKS
Scott Starratt (USGS-Menlo Park)
715-745
WATER YEAR 2012-13: A WET START BUT HOW WILL IT END?
Maury Roos (California Department of Water Resources)
-1-
745-815
TBA
Kelly Redmond (WRCC)
815-845
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON SEA LEVEL AND
AGRICULTURE IN CALIFORNIA
Craig Miller (KQED)
845-1000
POSTERS AND SOCIALIZING
MONDAY MORNING, March 4th
Moderator: Connie Millar
SPECIAL SESSION: EXTREME WEATHER –
THE CONSEQUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
730-830
BREAKFAST
845-900
INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
Scott Starratt (USGS – Menlo Park)
900-930
DON’T WORRY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE; CALIFORNIA’S
NATURAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY WILL PROBABLY “GET US”
FIRST
Kenneth L. Verosub (UC-Davis)
930-1000
CENTRAL-PACIFIC EL NIÑO: DYNAMICS, CLIMATE IMPACTS,
AND THE CAUSE OF ITS RECENT EMERGENCE
Jin-Yi Yu (UC-Irvine)
1000-1030
ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE VARIABILITY OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC
RECONSTRUCTED USING TREE-RING RECORDS
Erika K. Wise (University of North Carolina), Matthew P. Dannenberg
1030-1050
BREAK
1050-1120
CHANGING LIKELIHOODS OF EXTREMELY LOW FLOWS, HIGH
FLOWS, AND HIGH STREAM TEMPERATURES IN THE SIERRA
NEVADA, CALIFORNIA
Iris T. Stewart (Santa Clara University), Darren L. Ficklin, Edwin P.
Maurer, Russell Mcintosh, Carlos Carrillo
-2-
1120-1150
STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS OF MULTI-YEAR RUNOFF, RECHARGE,
AND CLIMATIC WATER DEFICIT IN GEOLOGICALLY VARYING
WATERSHEDS
Stuart B. Weiss (Creekside Center for Earth Observation)
1200-100
LUNCH
MONDAY AFTERNOON, March 4th
Moderator: Bob Westfall
SPECIAL SESSION: EXTREME WEATHER –
THE CONSEQUENCEOF CLIMATE CHANGE (continued)
130-200
EFFECTS OF HYDROLOGIC EVENT HISTORY ON THE
SUSPENDED-SEDIMENT BEHAVIOR OF A CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA RIVER
Andrew B. Gray (UC-Davis), Jonathan A. Warrick, Elizabeth B. Watson,
Gregory B. Pasternack
200-230 USING SEDIMENTARY RECORDS TO INFORM THE CAUSES OF
WOODY PLANT ENCROACHMENT IN SOUTHWESTERN US
DESERT GRASSLANDS
Andrea Brunelle, Thomas A. Minckley, Jose Delgadillo
230-300 HOW CAN POLLEN AND GEOCHEMICAL EVIDENCE FROM
LAKE SEDIMENTS PROVIDE CONTEXT FOR THE CLIMATEMEDIATED BARK BEETLE OUTBREAK OCCURRING IN
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA?
Jesse L. Morris (University of Idaho), Peter C. Le Roux, Andrea Brunelle 300-320
320-350
BREAK
A MULTI-PROXY PALEOLIMNOLOGY STUDY OF THE IMPACT
OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTANT
LOADINGS ON AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS IN THE GREAT BASIN,
UNITED STATES
Scott A. Reinemann (Ohio State University), David F. Porinchu, Mae S.
Gustin, Bryan G. Mark
350-420
INTERANNUAL AND LONGER VARIABILITY IN CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA KELP FORESTS
Jerrold G. Norton (SWFSC, Monterey), Janet E. Mason
420-450
THE FUTURE OF PACLIM
Scott Starratt (USGS – Menlo Park)
-3-
600-700
DINNER
MONDAY EVENING, March 4th
Moderator: Scott Starratt
700-800
MAKAUWAHI CAVE, KAUA`I: PALEOECOLOGY SPAWNS NEW
IDEAS IN CONSERVATION
David Burney (National Tropical Botanical Garden)
800-1000
POSTERS AND SOCIALIZING
TUESDAY MORNING, March 5th
Moderator: Michelle Goman
GREAT BASIN AND CALIFORNIA PALEOCLIMATE
730-830
BREAKFAST
900-930
MIDDLE HOLOCENE CHANGES IN BIG SODA LAKE, NEVADA:
CLIMATICALLY OR HYDROLOGICALLY INDUCED CHANGES?
Michael R. Rosen (USGS-Carson City), Liam Reidy, Scott Starratt, Roger
Byrne, B. Lynn Ingram 930-1000
A 1500 YEAR RECORD OF HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN FROM SEDIMENTS IN BIG
SODA LAKE, CHURCHILL COUNTY, NEVADA
Liam Reidy (UC-Berkeley), Roger Byrne, Lynn Ingram, Michael Rosen,
Susan Zimmerman, Marith Reheis
1000-1030
THE LATE HOLOCENE DROUGHT: A PERSISTENT DRY PERIOD
BETWEEN 2800 AND 1800 CAL YR BP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN
Scott Mensing (University of Nevada-Reno), Saxon Sharpe, Irene Tunno,
Don Sada, Jeremy Smith, Jim Thomas
1030-1050
BREAK
1050-1120
HOLOCENE PALEOCLIMATE POTENTIALOF FALLEN LEAF
LAKE SEDIMENT CORES, TAHOE BASIN, CALIFORNIA, USA
Paula J. Noble (University of Nevada-Reno), G. Ian Ball, Shane B. Smith,
Susan H. Zimmerman
-4-
1120-1150
1125-1150
1200-100
HOLOCENE LAKE-LEVEL HISTORY OF TULARE LAKE,
CALIFORNIA AS INPUT FOR SIERRA NEVADA RIVER
DISCHARGE FORECASTS: PROGRESS REPORT
Rob Negrini (California State University-Bakersfield)
HOLOCENE PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY RECORDED IN δ18O
AND U ISOTOPES OF OPAL SPELEOTHEMS FROM PINNACLES
NATIONAL MONUMENT, CALIFORNIA
Jessica L. Oster (Vanderbilt University), Katharine Maher, Kouki
Kitajima, John Valley, Bruce Rogers LUNCH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, March 5th
Moderator: Jenn Kusler
REGIONAL STUDIES
130-200
CLOSED LAKE OXYGEN ISOTOPE RECORDS OF DROUGHT IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SPANNING THE COMMON ERA
Byron A. Steinman (Pennsylvania State University), Mark B. Abbott,
Michael E. Mann, Joseph D. Ortiz, Lesleigh Anderson, Bruce P. Finney,
David P. Pompeani
200-230
LAKE SEDIMENT RECORDS OF MULTIDECADAL/CENTENNIALSCALE HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY IN CALIFORNIA FOR THE
LAST 2000 YEARS
Steve Lund (University of Southern California), Matt Kirby, Larry
Benson, Ellen Platzman, Sarah Feakins 230-300
A 2000 YEAR RECORD OF PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA USING CALIBRATED ELEMENTAL PROXY
DATA FROM FJORD SEDIMENTS
Jason A. Addison (USGS-Menlo Park), Lesleigh Anderson, John A.
Barron, Bruce P. Finney
300-320
BREAK
320-350
THE RETURN OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS: TRANSITIONING
FROM THE MEDIEVAL CLIMATE ANOMALY TO THE LITTLE ICE
AGE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Ingrid L. Hendy (University of Michigan), Arndt Schimmelmann, Dorothy
K. Pak, Linda Heusser
-5-
350-420
REVISED 2000-YEAR CHRONOSTRATIGRAPHY OF PARTIALLY
VARVED MARINE SEDIMENT IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN,
CALIFORNIA
Arndt Schimmelmann (Indiana University), Ingrid L. Hendy, Larianna
Dunn, Dorothy K. Pak 600-700
DINNER
TUESDAY EVENING, March 5th
700-800
Moderator: Scott Starratt
CALIFORNIA GLACIERS
Tim Palmer, (Travel Writer)
800-1000
POSTERS AND SOCIALIZING
WEDNESDAY MORNING, March 6th
Moderator: Scott Starratt
POTPOURRI – FIRES, CAVES, WETLANDS, AND ALLUVIAL FANS
730-830
BREAKFAST
900-930
HOLOCENE VARIABILITY OF A CLIMATIC BOUNDARY IN THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
Vachel A. Carter (University of Utah), Andrea Brunelle, Tom A.
Minckley, Phil Dennison 930-1000
COMPLEMENTARY SEASONAL BIAS IN RECORDS OF
HOLOCENE PALEOCLIMATE, BEAR RIVER RANGE, SOUTHEAST
IDAHO
Zachary Lundeen (University of Utah), Andrea Brunelle
1000-1030
BIAS AND SIGNAL DISTORTION IN USING A MODERN POLLENCLIMATE CALIBRATION SET TO INFER A MINNESOTA PREEUROPEAN-SETTLEMENT PALEOCLIMATE RECORD
Jeannine-Marie St. Jacques (University of Regina, Canada), Brian F.
Cumming, D.J. Sauchyn, John P. Smol
1030-1100
LINKING HOLOCENE HYDROLOGIC EVENTS WITH EPISODIC
PERIODS OF FLUVIAL DEPOSITION AND SOIL FORMATION,
SANTA CATALINA ISLAND, CALIFORNIA
Eric V. McDonald (Desert Research Institute), Thomas F. Bullard, Jose
Luis Antinao -6-
1100-1130
1130-????
FINAL WORDS
Scott W. Starratt (USGS – Menlo Park)
1200-100
LUNCH
POSTERS
POLLEN, NPP, AND CHARCOAL RECORD LATE-HOLOCENE AND HISTORICAL
CHANGE AT A COASTAL POND, SANTA BARBARA COUNTY, CALIFORNIA
R. Scott Anderson (Northern Arizona University), Ana Ejarque, Johnathan Rice, Clayton Lebow
COSMOGENIC 10BE DEPTH-PROFILE CHRONOLOGY OF LATE PLEISTOCENE
ALLUVIAL FAN DEPOSITS, BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
Jose Luis Antinao (Desert Research Institute/University of Nevada-Reno), Eric McDonald, John
C. Gosse, Susan Zimmermann
COMPARISON OF HIGH-RESOLUTION CLIMATE CHANGE IN TWO SANTA BARBARA
BASIN TIME SERIES (AD 800-1600 VS. AD 1750-2007) BASED ON DIATOMS AND
SILICOFLAGELLATES
John A. Barron (USGS-Menlo Park), David Bukry
A MULTI-PROXY RECONSTRUCTION OF MID TO LATE HOLOCENE
PALEOENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE FROM THE CUENCA ORIENTAL IN MEXICO’S
TRANS-MEXICAN VOLCANIC BELT
Tripti Bhattacharya (UC-Berkeley), Roger Byrne, Harald Bohnel, Kurt Wogau
SUPPLEMENTING A TULARE LAKE, CALIFORNIA LATE PLEISTOCENE AND
HOLOCENE LAKE-LEVEL RECORD USING GEOCHEMICAL AND GEOPHYSICAL
PROXIES FROM CORE SEDIMENTS; CONTINUING WORK
Ashleigh B. Blunt (California State University-Bakersfield), Robert M. Negrini, Kathleen
Randall, Kelsey Padilla, Logan Prosser, James Wilson, Emmanuel Garcia, Stephanie Unruh
Caffee
A ~14,500 YEAR FIRE AND SEDIMENT HISTORY OF A DESERT WETLAND IN NEW
MEXICO
Vanessa Chavez (University of Utah), Andrea Brunelle
A ~50,000 YEAR RECORD OF VEGETATION CHANGE AND FIRE IN CENTRAL
COASTAL CALIFORNIA
Alicia Cowart (UC-Berkeley), Roger Byrne, Rob Cuthrell, Matthew Kirby
-7-
PALEOECOLOGY OF GRAND STAIRCASE-ESCALANTE NATIONAL MONUMENT,
UTAH: HUMAN IMPACTS ON LANDSCAPE AND IMPLICATIONS FOR RESOURCE
MANAGEMENT ON THE SOUTHERN COLORADO PLATEAU
Robert M. D’Andrea (Northern Arizona University), R. Scott Anderson, Kenneth L. Cole,
Matthew K. Zweifel
WEST COAST ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE OVER THE LAST 150,000 YEARS: A CASE
STUDY FROM BALDWIN LAKE, SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS, CALIFORNIA
Katherine Glover (UC-Los Angeles), Glen MacDonald, Matthew Kirby
MULTI-PROXY CHARACTERIZATION OF ABRUPTLY DEPOSITED SEDIMENTARY
PACKAGES AT PETALUMA MARSH, SONOMA COUNTY, CALIFORNIA
Michelle Goman (Sonoma State University), B. Lynn Ingram, Frances Malamud-Roam, Kirsten
Helgeson, Nicholas Darst, Ashley Steward
RESOLVING VARVE AND RADIOCARBON CHRONOLOGY DIFFERENCES IN THE
SANTA BARBARA BASIN SEDIMENTARY RECORD, CALIFORNIA
Ingrid L. Hendy (University of Michigan), Larianna Dunn, Arndt Schimmelmann, Dorothy K.
Pak
MULTI-DECADAL VARIATION IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DROUGHT DURING THE
MEDIEVAL CLIMATE ANOMALY AND LITTLE ICE AGE (~AD 800- ~AD 1600):
EVIDENCE FROM COEVAL TERRESTRIAL AND MARINE PROXIES
Linda E. Heusser (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University), Ingrid E. Hendy,
John A. Barron, Dorothy Pak
THE LATE PLEISTOCENE PLUVIAL HISTORY OF SURPRISE VALLEY, CALIFORNIA
Daniel E. Ibarra (Stanford University), Anne E. Egger, Kate Maher
DEGLACIAL HYDROCLIMATES ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
INTO THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES, INCLUDING NORTHWEST MEXICO:
TIMING, PHASING, AND FORCINGS
Matthew E. Kirby (California State University-Fullerton), Sarah J. Feakins, Nicole Bonuso, Joanna M.
Fantozzi, Christine A. Hiner
SALMON ABUNDANCE IN THE OREGON COAST: A 5400-YEAR
PALEOLIMNOLOGICAL RECONSTRUCTION
Jennifer E. Kusler (USGS-Menlo Park), Daniel Gavin
TREE-RING RECONSTRUCTED HYDROCLIMATE OF THE UPPER KLAMATH BASIN
Steven B. Malevich (University of Arizona), Connie A. Woodhouse, David M. Meko
ASSESSING MODERN CLIMATIC CONTROLS ON SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
PRECIPITATION AND SPELEOTHEM δ18O
Staryl McCabe-Glynn (UC-Irvine), Kathleen R. Johnson, Court Strong, Max Berkelhammer
-8-
THE PLEISTOCENE CLIMATE RECORD IN ALLUVIAL FANS OF THE MOJAVE
DESERT
David M. Miller, (USGS-Menlo Park), Andrew Cyr, Christopher Menges, Kevin M. Schmidt,
Shannon A. Mahan, Katherine Maher, Tanzhuo Liu
20TH CENTURY RAINFALL PATTERNS OF THE SANTA BARBARA REGION
ASSEMBLED FROM SEDIMENT PROVENANCE ANALYSIS OF A SANTA BARBARA
BASIN BOX CORE.
Tiffany Napier (University of Michigan), Ingrid L. Hendy, Arndt Schimmelmann
CLIMATE FREQUENCIES OF THE EARLY HOLOCENE FROM FOY LAKE, MONTANA
Deven M. O’Neil (Palomar College), Lora R. Stevens
FORAMINIFERAL PROXY RECORDS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGES
OVER THE LAST 2000 YEARS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN, CALIFORNIA
Dorothy K. Pak (UC-Santa Barbara), Arndt Schimmelmann, Ingrid L. Hendy, Jennifer Reynolds
SEDIMENTARY EVOLUTION OF SWAN LAKE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR
DEGLACIAL AND HOLOCENE PALEOCLIMATE OF SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO
José Rosario (USGS-Menlo Park), David M. Miller, David B. Wahl, Lysanna Anderson, Charles
G. Oviatt, Aradhna Tripati, Liubov Presnetsov, John P. McGeehin
DEVELOPING 21st CENTURY HYDROCLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR THE BOW RIVER
BASIN, ALBERTA, CANADA
Jeannine-Marie St. Jacques (University of Regina, Canada), David Sauchyn, David J. Thomson,
A. Michael S. Sheer, Daniel P. Sheer, Michael Kelly, Megan van Ham, Michael W. Nemeth,
Elaine Barrow
AN ORGANIC GEOCHEMICAL RECORD OF THE LAST INTERGLACIAL-GLACIAL
TRANSITION FROM THE HIGH ELEVATION COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS
Joseph H. Street (UC-Santa Cruz), Pratigya J. Polissar, Adina Paytan
A RECORD OF LATE HOLOCENE PALEOMEGAFLOODS FROM LITTLE PACKER
LAKE AND RAZOR SLOUGH, SACRAMENTO VALLEY OXBOW LAKES
Donald G. Sullivan (University of Denver), Roger Byrne, Alicia Cowart, Susan Zimmerman
CORRELATION OF CLIMATE RECORDS BETWEEN A GREAT BASIN LAKE AND A
GREENLAND ICE CORE DURING THE MONO LAKE EXCURSION
Gregory Richard Thompson (California State University-Bakersfield), Lindsey D. Medina,
Martin Matthew Jimenez, Esteban Macias, Cristina Rivas, Rob Negrini, Manuel R. Palacios-Fest
A 10,500 YEAR RECORD OF VEGETATION AND FIRE HISTORY FROM LOWER
WHITSHED LAKE NEAR CORDOVA, ALASKA
Martina T. Tingley (Northern Arizona University), R. Scott Anderson, Darrell Kaufman, Megan
-9-
Arnold
A HOLOCENE RECORD OF LARGE-SCALE DISTURBANCE EVENTS IN THE UINTA
MOUNTAINS, UTAH, USA
Lovina A. Turney (University of Utah), Mitchell J. Power, Rick Ford, Eric Carson
A 7700 YEAR RECORD OF PALEOENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE FROM FAVRE LAKE,
RUBY MOUNTAINS, NEVADA
David Wahl (USGS-Menlo Park), Scott Starratt, Lysanna Anderson, Jennifer Kusler, Christopher
Fuller, Elmira Wan, Holly Olson
PRELIMINARY POLLEN RECORD FROM ECHO LAKE, RUBY MOUNTAINS, NEVADA
James A. Wanket (California State University-Sacramento), David B. Wahl, Jennifer E. Kusler
INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TELECONNECTIONS ON ENSO-RELATED
PRECIPITATION PATTERNS IN THE UNITED STATES
Melissa Wrzesien (University of North Carolina), Erika K. Wise
HOLOCENE HISTORY OF MONO LAKE, CALIFORNIA, USA, FROM MULTIPLE
SEDIMENT CORES
Susan R. Zimmerman (CAMS- LLNL), Scott W. Starratt, Sidney R. Hemming
-10-