Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, UC Berkeley
Non-specimen archival
record
(fieldnotes and
photographs)
“... our efforts are not ... to
accumulate as great a mass of
animal remains as possible…
[rather] ... our field-records will
be perhaps the most valuable of
all our results... You can't tell in
advance which observations will
prove valuable. Do record them
all!”
Grinnell, 1908
Photograph archive
1911
Black oak woodland, Stoneman Meadow
(east end of Yosemite Valley)
The Grinnell Project
Small Mammal Responses to Climate in California
What is it? Where did it come from?
Mammal distributional changes
Possible causes
Reality check
What can we do now?
Grinnell Resurvey Project
Craig Moritz - Project leader (MVZ director)
Jim Patton, Chris Conroy, John Perrine - field team leaders
Robert Hijmans, Michelle Koo - geospatial models, database
Bill Monahan, Juan Para - climate models, historical database
Steve Beisinger - detectability and occupancy models
Emily Rubidge - genetic diversity
Multi-scale
Observations
Models
Grinnell
period
-100 years
Build
Present
Predict
Test
Genetic: Multi-locus, neutral and adaptive
molecular diversity
Species: presence or absence;
relative abundance
Community: richness, evenness, dissimilarity
Future
+ 100
years
Predicted
responses to
future
change
Scenarios for
climate &
land-use
change
Yosemite transect
2003-2006
National Park Service, US Geological Service
Steve Thompson, NPS
Les Chow, USGS
Sierra Nevada Network Inventory and Monitoring Program
The Yosemite Fund
Craig Moritz, Director, MVZ, project leader
Adam Leache, MVZ, reptiles / amphibians
Andrew Rush, MVZ, birds
Chris Conroy, MVZ, mammals
Jim Patton, MVZ, mammals
Yosemite transect
41 sites, elevational range 300 - 12,000 ft
Joseph Grinnell, Tracy I. Storer, Walter P.
Taylor, Joseph Dixon, Charles L. Camp
fieldwork began on 19 Nov. 1914 and
ended on 11 Aug. 1920
---------957 “man-days” in the field
~3,000 pages of field notes
4354 specimens obtained
~700 photographs
Mammal effort - Yosemite Transect
39 separate localities
250 separate trap lines (each run for a minimum of 4
consecutive days/nights)
~30,000 ‘trap nights’ (combinations of Sherman live
traps, Tomahawk live traps, pitfall cups, other
traps)
Methodological issues:
trap type
trapping intensity (number and temporal length)
precision in duplicating trap “sites”
Statistical issues:
single point-in-time surveys
two points-in-time comparisons
detectability (false absences)
indirect
observation
direct observation
raccoon hind foot print -Upper Lyell Canyon,
10,500 ft
Spermophilus beecheyi –
Crane Flat, 6300 ft
collapsed mole runway - Bohler
Creek, Mono Co., 7265 ft
High elevation species:
upward range retraction
Golden-mantled
ground squirrel
(Spermophilus
lateralis)
Pika
(Ochotona princeps)
500 ft
700 ft
Low elevation species: upward expansion
into higher elevation (west and east slopes)
and habitat (on east side)
Piñon mouse
(Peromyscus truei)
piñonjuniper
oak woodland chaparral
Mono
Basin:
piñon juniper
woodland,
7300 ft
upper Lyell
Canyon:
whitebark pine,
10,200 ft
downward elevational expansion
Montane shrew
(Sorex monticolus)
Summary: mammal
distribution patterns
High elevation: retracted upwards
Golden-mantled ground squirrel
Belding ground squirrel
Alpine chipmunk
Pika
Low elevation: expanded upwards
Beechey ground squirrel
Long-eared chipmunk
California pocket mouse
Piñon mouse
California vole
High elevation: expanded downwards
Montane shrew
Medium-High elevation: disappearing?
Shadow chipmunk
Bushy-tailed woodrat
Temporally stable:
Trowbridge’s shrew
Western gray squirrel
Lodgepole pine chipmunk
Merriam’s chipmunk
Yellow pine chipmunk
Chickaree
Heermann’s kangaroo rat
Panamint kangaroo rat
Botta’s pocket gopher
Montane pocket gopher
Montane vole
Long-tailed vole
Brush mouse
Deer mouse
Western harvest mouse
Big-eared woodrat
WHY?
Range shifts and
ecological factors
Fire history
1930-2002
Yosemite
National Park
Upward elevational expansion
of west slope species may be
associated with changes in
forest structure due to fire
history
California pocket mouse (Chaetodipus californicus)
elevational increase of a low
elevation species
Signatures of climate change:
local pika extirpation
h
Signatures of climate change:
temperature increase, glacial melt
summer
winter
Lyell Glacier, Yosemite National Park, in
1903 (top) and 2003 (bottom)
Yosemite Valley
Signatures of climate change:
winter precipitation - shift from snowfall to rainfall
Signatures of climate change:
change in forest structure and growth
1907
July 1915
1984
east end Tenaya Lake - 8,200 ft
July 2004
north
end - 10,400
ft
north end Vogelsang Lake
- 10,400
ft
forest densification
•increased tree density
•invasion of subalpine meadows
change in form & growth
•harsh conditions favor krummholz life form
•milder conditions favor persistence of flags and growth of upright stems
Mts Gibbs and Dana - from upper
meadow at Farringtons, near William's
Butte, Mono Co.
June 1916
No obvious change in the
meadows, but substantial
increase of tree cover/sizes
on the slopes
August 2003
Question: Are these elevational shifts “real”?
-------measures of change in species distributions are
inherently biased unless the probability that a
species is present at a site is adjusted by the
probability that it has, indeed, been detected if
present (i. e., what is the probability of false
absences?)
USING SURVEY DATA TO
MODEL CHANGES ACROSS CALIFORNIA
MODERN
DATA
2003-2006
GRINNELL’S
DATA
PAST
DISTRIBUTION
MODELS
TESTING &
REFINING MODELS
CLIMATE
(ENVIRON.)
DATA
FUTURE
PROJECTIONS
Change in total precipitation
of the driest quarter
(current – historic).
Blue represents areas
where precipitation has
decreased relative to the
historic time period.
Note:Prec in mm *10
Juan Parra & William Monahan
Basic Methods
Species Distribution Modelling
Species
Data
Historic
Climate
Data
MaxEnt
&
BIOCLIM
Assessment with
Current Climate &
Current Sampling
1. Select small mammal species based
on sample size and geographic range
criteria. Data are MVZ specimen /
observation records.
2. Use historic species occurrences
(1900-1940) in conjunction with
historic climate surfaces to create
niche models with Maxent and
Bioclim.
3. Project historical models onto
present-day climate surfaces and
assess statewide model performance
using modern point locality data
(1980-2006).
Future approaches
chipmunks: temporal changes in genetic diversity
Modeling physiological /
physical responses
Grinnell Resurvey Project:
Realizing Grinnell’s vision of using
museum archival data to document and
understand patterns and change in the
natural world.
• Ongoing research
• Collaborators welcome!
www://mvz.berkeley.edu