Associated Press
08-15-06
MIDDLE EAST
Theories on Middle East conflict
Amid a lull -- at least for now -- in fighting, HILLARY RHODES asks some Middle
East experts where a long-term solution might be found.
The fighting may have mostly stopped -- for now -- but the legacy of a month of
bloodshed between Israel and Hezbollah guerrillas can't simply be relegated to
the history books: It has deep roots in a broader Arab-Israeli conflict that's far
from over -- as an Israeli airstrike in Gaza on Monday makes clear.
So where's the elusive path to longer-term peace?
Some say Israel needs to halt its pattern of strong-arming its weaker neighbors.
Others say there is too much tolerance for Islamic militancy directed toward
Israel.
Meanwhile some scholars who study the conflict from the outside have tried to
make sense of the issue from a myriad angles and a little bit of distance.
As a U.N.-brokered cease-fire offers some hope for progress, asap offers a peek
into the conversation among intellectuals about potential ways forward. Here are
four experts talking about what they think is at the root of the Middle East
problem, how they think we got to this point, and where a long-term solution
might be found.
___
EXPERT: Hector Avalos, associate professor of religious studies, Iowa
State University
ROOT OF THE CONFLICT: "When people don't think there is enough of
something they value -- whether that's real or perceived -- then they tend to fight
about it."
HOW WE GOT HERE: "When religion causes violence, it does so because it has
created a new scarce resource somewhere. In the case of the Middle East, it's
'sacred space' -- a piece of property has been declared more valuable than
surrounding space for religious reasons."
WHAT CAN BE DONE: "Don't take religious sides."
"Our foreign policy is based on religious sides. More hope would be provided by
an aggressive educational program ... to explain to people how their religious
belief is creating a scarcity in the first place, how religious belief itself can create
scarcity."
___
EXPERT: Alynna Lyon, assistant professor of political science, University of New
Hampshire
ROOT OF THE CONFLICT: "Within the Arab-Israeli conflict, there are many
sources."
"Some people will say the Arab-Israeli conflict is about water. Some people will
say the Arab-Israeli conflict is about money and economics. And some people
will say it's about land. To give you one more wrinkle, others will point to
international politics."
HOW WE GOT HERE: "It is part of the Arab-Israeli conflict that has been in
existence since the creation of Israel. And it has evolved into a low-level conflict,
asymmetrical warfare, between non-state actors -- Hezbollah and Hamas -- and
Israel."
"But it's not that simple. It's not just a terrorist group fighting Israel. These
organizations are supplied and supported by Arab countries."
WHAT CAN BE DONE: "You're not going to find a Band-Aid. We're going to find
a package of Band-Aids. You might find a whole regimen."
"In many cases, this is a political conflict, and it needs political solutions. I don't
see military solutions accomplishing a whole lot. You have to start a peacebuilding process and then you can move into peacekeeping."
___
EXPERT: Michael Kenney, assistant professor of public policy, Pennsylvania
State University-Harrisburg
ROOT OF THE CONFLICT:"Hezbollah -- they always try to sting the Israelis and
draw them into a conflict, and this time the Israelis responded, perhaps because
of what had happened with the first Israeli soldier in the Gaza Strip a couple of
weeks before that."
HOW WE GOT HERE: (For Hezbollah) "It's the cosmic war. It's THE struggle. It's
THE enemy. You're engaging the enemy. You're validating your existence. Your
whole identity is caught up in this and finally, your mission in life is being
actualized. You're finally getting to strike back. It's all about their identity and their
view of the world."
WHAT CAN BE DONE: "You do have to try to degrade their military capability as
much as you can without creating new extremists in the process. You also need
to go to the political wing of Hezbollah and continue to draw them in politically."
___
EXPERT: Alex Hybel, government professor, Connecticut College
ROOT OF THE CONFLICT: "You have Syria bordering part of Lebanon and also
part of Israel, so you can look at it from a purely strategic perspective. And you
consider Hezbollah and its relationships to Syria and Iran -- from a purely
strategic perspective you can say what has happened could be said to be
inevitable."
HOW WE GOT HERE: "During the capture of the Israeli soldiers, I'm not sure
that Hezbollah actually expected the response initiated by Israel. And I think
here's where really the trick is, because in previous instances when soldiers had
been captured -- ultimately released -- in a sense, Israel never responded with
the level of aggressiveness that it did."
WHAT CAN BE DONE: "In politics, we have a game: the game of tit for tat. And I
think what we have seen now is that tit for tat between Hezbollah and Israel. And
until one of the two decides not to respond -- a tit with a tat -- with an aggressive
response, nothing will change."
Hillary Rhodes is an asap reporter based in New York.
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