Atlantic Online
11-16-07
Will Obama Turn Out Young Voters In Iowa?
Barack Obama's presidential campaign is turning to seasoned veterans of the
Iowa caucus process to help school newcomers in the caucuses' arcane
mathematics.
The campaign calls these folks "Caucus Pros." 73 so far have been recruited to
teach new caucus goers "of all ages," an Obama press release states.
The Obama's campaign turnout model incorporates large numbers of Democratic
leaning independents who have never caucused and young voters who have
never voted in a presidential race.
We'll deal with independents at some other point, but just how many young
caucus goers will actually show up on January 3?
Here are some arguments, pro-and-con.
Pro: Yes, the Orange Bowl is on Jan. 3 during caucus time. No one watches the
Orange Bowl -- can you even remember who played in last year's game? (Wake
Forest v. Louisville). The Bowl rated fourth for the night, barely beating Dateline:
NBC.
Con: College football parity, baby. The Orange Bowl might matter this year.
Pro: College kids will be back home and will be distributed throughout the state,
thereby magnifying their effect on other precincts. (The scenario: four Iowa State
University students don't caucus in Ames; they caucus in Adair County, where
they live, and have a disproportionate effect on their particular caucus meeting).
(The political director of the IA Dem party agrees with this argument).
Con: It's much harder to track these kids and to make sure that, when they're
back home, they do caucus.
Pro: Obama has more money than any other credible challenger in history; his
campaign is not making the same mistakes that Howard Dean's made; Obama is
a much better presence on the campaign trail than Bill Bradley and Gary Hart
ever were;
Con: There is no historical precedent for changing the demographic composition
of the turnout universe that radically.
Pro: Caucus turnout could reach 160,000.
Con: No one but the Obama team believes that -- other campaigns estimate a
turnout of about 135,000 Dems.
Con: One third of Iowa college students live outside of Iowa, many of them in
Illinois, and Obama can't rely on them because they can't vote if they're not
registered in Iowa.
Pro: Two thirds of Iowa college students come from Iowa, and the Obama
campaign has undertaken a fairly massive effort to make sure they are registered
to vote. Potential college-aged supporters are tracked as regularly as veteran
caucus goers.
Grinnell -- one precinct -- if they're spread across the state, you can't run up the
state. Those precincts have a low weight because turnout is smaller in the
general election.
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Comments (14)
Obama is about 2-4 points down to HRC in public polling, most of which, I
presume, it based on historic turnout models. Is that a fair assumption?
Assuming it is, can Obama win this thing simply by hitting his internal turnout
targets?
Posted by David | November 16, 2007 3:17 PM
What is your point about Grinnell at the end of the post? The precinct that houses
Grinnell College will have the most delegates of any precinct in the state. And
because school is out of session, those students that do come back to caucus
(and they are coming back from all over the country in carpools organized by the
Grinnell Campus Democrats) will have extraordinary delegate weight. They are
all Obama supporters, by the way.
Posted by Grinnell College Student | November 16, 2007 3:32 PM
It won't be easy. But if the Obama campaign is damn serious about winning, they
better be doing their homework sooner than later. Now, now, now!!!There is an
untapped group of potential caucus goers who I can see easily go to Mr. BO. Do
thy homework NOW, Obama people.
Ron Paul '08!
Scratch that. Paul/Obama '08!
Posted by ML | November 16, 2007 3:34 PM
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_surveyusa_ges_in_oh_ia.php
Obama is weak in Ohio, but no one has campaigned there so I don't put too
much stock in these numbers.
But look at Iowa, where he gets SERIOUS cross-over vote (or at least a LOT
more than Hillary)...Iowans have seen all the candidates, and they sure seem to
like Obama!
Posted by David | November 16, 2007 3:42 PM
It seems the pundit class seems to be purporting this claim that Obama is relying
on the youth vote to have any serious impact on the primaries (and then assume
he has no chance if they don't show up). Although the youth vote seems to be
tilted in his direction, he has a strategy in place that doesn't just rely on youth
turnout. Obama has the most field offices open in Iowa versus any other
candidate. He's got offices open in parts of Iowa that rarely see any attention. I
think Obama is counting more on the rural vote than the youth vote.
Posted by Mark from NY | November 16, 2007 3:58 PM
As someone who has caucused in Iowa as a voter and as a precinct captain, I
have to say that the media's insane storyline that "caucus math is hard" really
needs to stop.
A common caucus voter does not need to worry about these rules, no matter
how arcane. It's a cute story, but to be 100% honest (and Marc knows this is
true) a voter needs to show up supporting a candidate and wait to be counted.
Most of the "math" is done after the candidate numbers are confirmed and those
voters, can, in fact, leave the site.
Posted by Joe Justice | November 16, 2007 4:05 PM
Polling methods are statistically flawed, given behavior patterns surrounding
landline telephones. It's akin to the 1936 Literary Digest telephone poll that
predicted a landslide victory of Alf Landon over Franklin Roosevelt. That poll
failed to correct for the strong correlation between affluence and telephone
ownership. Today's phone polls are not correcting for the negative correlation
between age and landline ownership. Below a certain age, most people do not
even have landlines any more.
Posted by Benjamin | November 16, 2007 4:07 PM
The answer to your question is yes. And he'll get the adult and senior voters out
too, and everyone in between.
I'm glad I could help you out on that. ;)
Posted by bklynsam | November 16, 2007 5:58 PM
Since neither ISU or Iowa is playing in the Orange Bowl, my guess is that college
students in Iowa could care less about the game.
Having the kids at home is a big plus for BO.
Posted by Chuck Miller | November 16, 2007 7:00 PM
You clearly know next to nothing about college football. The 'parity' you speak of
has no impact on the BCS games, since only one of them -- the championship
game -- matters. Were the Orange Bowl part of some sort of tournament, a door-die contest in which the winner advances to the title game, there would be a
huge audience for it and it would be a major factor to consider as you analyze the
caucuses. But it is not. It will merely decide who the fourth best team in the
country is. Yawn. (It would also affect the caucuses if the U of Iowa were playing
-- but the 'Hawks have been barely adequate for three years now and are no
threat to reach a BCS bowl.) In other words, all of the hot air about the Orange
Bowl Factor is really just a feeble attempt by political nerds to burnish their nonexistent athletic credentials.
Posted by J. Businger | November 16, 2007 7:11 PM
Obama is not just getting the youth vote. His numbers have gone up with older
people and he is quite popular with the independents.
He is also very popular with moderate Iowa republicans. The ones who have
become disillusioned with the Bush years and the congress and corruption. They
long for the partisanship to end and for things to get done. They are aware of
Obama's progressive positions but, don't care. They see him as the best hope for
the country. 268 of them agreed to have their names publicly announced as
supporters for Obama. there are more but, did not want their names disclosed.
He also has alot of support from the disaffected voters who are attracted to
Obama and have become very active in his candidacy and have not participated
before hand very much.
There is strong support in Iowa but, the real numbers are not known due to the
amount of crossovers and indies who are caucusing for him.
Posted by vwcat | November 16, 2007 7:27 PM
If one third of Iowa college students live outside of Iowa (mainly Illinois) and they
can't vote if they're not registered in Iowa, where will they vote if they will be in
college (in Iowa) during the Illinois primary.
Posted by Ike | November 17, 2007 6:39 AM
I am a Grinnell College student as well and an Obama supporter. I can say that
there is a good amount of support for Obama on campus, it's not unanimous as
was suggested by a previous poster, but I think that the majority favor Obama.
Grinnell is very delegate rich, so the students who do come back will have an
enormous impact.
Posted by Meng Bomin | November 17, 2007 2:47 PM
Students not showing up to caucus is true until it's not true, right? We'll see what
happens but Obama has a different kind of support and I expect we'll see a
different kind of result.