Co-benefits of CDM projects in China
CDM and Climate Policy: Multidisciplinary Perspectives
MILEN Workshop 18 November 2009
Holmenkollen Park Hotell, Oslo
Kristin Aunan
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO)
1
Outline
• Emissions of CO2 and air pollutants
in China
• Air pollution co-benefits of CO2
mitigation
• Co-benefits of China’s current CDM
portfolio
2
Outline
• Emissions of CO2 and air
pollutants in China
• Air pollution co-benefits of CO2
mitigation
• Co-benefits of China’s current CDM
portfolio
3
China dominates global emissions
and emissions growth
CO2 from fossil fuels (GtC/yr)
• China1990: 11%
2.50
2.00
USA
1.50
EU
Japan
Other developed countries
1.00
FSU
China
India
0.50
0.00
Other developing countries
of global
emissions
• China 2008: 22%
• Global emissions
growth 20072008: China’s
share was 70%
Myhre et al., 2009
4
Half of the growth in CO2 towards
2030 may come from China
• ~80% of the growth
in emissions 20052030 from developing
countries
• ~60% from
developing Asia
• ~40% from China
alone
• (NB: These are BAU
scenarios..)
5
Power plants and industry largest sources of
emissions of CO2, SO2, and NOx
CO2
SO2
Power plants
Power plants
Iron and Steel
Iron and Steel
Cement
Cement
Other industry
Other industry
Transport
Transport
Residential
Residential
NOx
Power plants
Iron and Steel
Cement
Other industry
Transport
Residential
Peters et al. (2009) based on China Statistical Yearbook
6
Outline
• Emissions of CO2 and air pollutants
in China
• Air pollution co-benefits of CO2
mitigation
• Co-benefits of China’s current CDM
portfolio
7
’Co-benefits’: Climate-change and airpollution links
• Source link: CO2 and the
main air pollutants have
the same sources
• Air pollutants, especially
tropospheric ozone and
particles, play an important
role in the climate system
• Chemistry: Some air
pollutants affect the
lifetimes of GHGs
8
’Co-benefits’: Climate-change and airpollution links
• Source link: CO2 and the
main air pollutants have
the same sources
• Air pollutants, especially
tropospheric ozone and
particles, play an important
role in the climate system
• Chemistry: Some air
pollutants affect the
lifetimes of GHGs
9
Co-benefits include:
• Avoided mortality and
morbidity due to exposures
to air pollution
• Avoided corrosion to
materials and heritage due to
acid rain
• Avoided damage to crops and
ecosystems due to surface
ozone and acid rain
• Avoided costs in air pollution
abatement
• Avoided climate disturbance
Beijing, november 2007
from air pollutants (PM, O3…)
10
Air pollution co-benefits of CO2 mitigation in
developing countries are well documented
• US-EPA IES program:
– Co-control options accounting for health co-benefits
(Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Mexico,
Phillippines, South Korea.. )
• IGES (Institute for Global Env. Strategies):
– Research on co-benefits of climate actions in the
Asia-Pacific region
• Clean Air Initiative: Asia
• IIASA (Gains model)
• Academic scholars/publications:
– Health and environmental co-benefits of GHG
mitigation often exceed the costs
– Air pollutants as a climate forcing (trade-offs!)
11
Avoided deaths/mtCO2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
China (O'Connor et al., 2003)
China (Garbaccio et al, 2000)
India (Bussolo and O'Connor, 2001)
Hungary (Aunan et al., 1998)
Chile (Dessus and O'Connor 1999)
Chile (Cifuentes et al., 1999)
USA (Abt Associates, 1997)
LOCAL PROJECTS, CHINA:
(Mestl et al, 2005; Aunan et al., 2004)
Co-generation heat and electr.
Industrial boilers (energy efficiency)
Coal washing
Coal briquettes replace raw coal in cooking/heating
Steel work - low stack sources
665
Steel work - high stack sources
District heating
12
IPCC AR4 concludes:
“..in all analyzed world regions near-term
health co-benefits from reduced air
pollution as a result of actions to reduce
GHG emissions can be substantial and
may offset a substantial fraction of
mitigation costs (high agreement, much
evidence)”
13
Outline
• Emissions of CO2 and air pollutants
in China
• Air pollution co-benefits of CO2
mitigation
• Co-benefits of China’s current
CDM portfolio
14
China by far the largest CDM country
Figure: Volumes of proposed CDM project emissions
reductions, through 2012. Source:Point Carbon 2009
15
• Draws upon studies on
health and environmental
co-benefits of CO2
reductions in China (energyrelated, potential CDM)
• Exploiting China’s CDM
potential (energy): 3,00040,000 premature deaths
avoided each year, and
• 1-45 billion RMB saved due
to avoided morbidity and
hospitalization, crop loss,
material damage…
16
A simplified methodology for estimating cobenefits of current Chinese CDM portfolio
(Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)
• Statistical sampling from the 1754 active CDM
projects in China as of July 1st 2009 (UNEP CDM
Pipeline database) – categorized according to
project type and geographical location
17
CERs from China’s CDM portfolio (2010)
Energy efficiency
Forestry
(Supply-side and
0%
Industry)
1%
Energy
efficiency
(Own
generation at
plant level)
N2O
12 %
9%
Cement
0%
Zero Emission
Renewables
37 %
South
12 %
North West
8%
North East
12 %
F-Gas
21 %
Coal bed
methane
8%
Fossil fuel switch
7%
Biomass (crop
residues in PP)
4%
Waste (e.g.
biogas)
1%
Central
18 %
East
25 %
North
25 %
Hainan
0%
18
A simplified methodology for estimating cobenefits of current Chinese CDM portfolio
(Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)
• Sample from the 1754 active CDM projects in
China as of July 1st 2009 (UNEP CDM Pipeline
database) – categorized into project type and
geographical location
• From information in the Project Design Document
and emission factors in GAINS-Asia database: coabatement rate for SO2, PM2.5, and Nox re
estimated
19
Co-control rate for project types
Energy eff. (Supply-side and Industry)
Energy eff. (Own production at plant level)
Fossil fuel switch
Biomass PP (crop residues etc)
Zero Emission Renewables
tSO2/ktCO2
Waste
tNOx/ktCO2
Coal bed methane
tPM2.5/ktCO2
Cement
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
(Based on Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)
20
Energy efficiency
(Supply-side and
Industry)
Cement 3 %
0%
PM2.5
Forestry
0%
Total offsets of air
pollutants (2010)
N2O
0%
F-Gas
0%
Coal bed methane
2%
SO2
Forestry
0%
Cement
0 % N2O
0%
Energy efficiency
(Own generation at
plant level)
16 %
F-Gas
0%
Zero Emission
Renewables
47 %
Fossil fuel switch
22 %
EE Supply-side
and Industry
2%
EE Own Generation
17 %
Zero Emission
Renewables
49 %
Fugitive
3%
FF Switch
23 %
Biomass
10 %
Energy efficiency
(Supply-side and
Industry)
8%
Waste
0%
NOx
Biomass
6%
Forestry
0%
Waste
0%
N2O
0%
Energy efficiency
(Own generation at
plant level)
19 %
Cement
0%
F-Gas
0%
Coal bed methane
2%
Fossil fuel switch
1%
Biomass
7%
Zero Emission
Renewables
63 %
Waste
0%
21
Total offsets: Annual CO2 reductions and coabated air pollution
• CER in 2008: ~2% of
China’s CO2 emissions
from fossil fuels
3000
2500
• SO2 reduction from
CER Generation (MtCO2eq)
SO2 Offsets (ktSO2)
2000
CDM in 2010: ~20% of
China’s targeted SO2
reduction in 11th five
year plan
PM Offsets (ktPM2.5)
NOx Offsets (ktNOx)
1500
1000
• PM2.5 and NOx: Small
500
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
share of total
emissions, but large
co-benefits
22
A simplified methodology cont.,
health (premature mortality)
• Assume an average 0.10 avoided deaths per
tPM2.5 for energy related ‘CDM type projects’ in
China (from Vennemo et al. 2006). This is 2.6
times the figure estimated for general PM2.5
reductions in Europe in the CAFE Programme
• Adjust according to project type (ie. height
and dispersion of emission – ’intake fraction’
(from Ho and Nielsen, 2007) and region (i.e.
population density (from Tan et al. 2008)
23
Avoided deaths rate for project types and regions
Aggregate results for five types of offsets: Grid offsets; Point
sources (biomass+non-biomass); Transport; Biomass open burning
Avoided deaths from reduced PM2.5 exposure/tCO2
Energy eff. (Supply-side and Industry)
Energy eff. (Own production at plant level)
South
Fossil fuel switch
North West
North East
Biomass (crop residues in PP)
North
Zero Emission Renewables (hydro, wind..new PP)
Hainan
East
Waste
Central
Coal bed methane
Cement
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
(Based on Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)
24
A simplified methodology cont.,
agricultural crop loss
• A reduced form model for the NOx→surface
ozone → crop loss link for China based on
Aunan et al. (2000) was applied to estimate
avoided crop loss from a nationwide CO2 tax in
China in Vennemo et al. (2009):
 Average avoided crop loss per ktNOx associated
with a CO2-tax: 0.026 mill Yuan (2005)/tNOx
25
Co-benefit rate of China’s CDM
portfolio 2010 (€/tCO2eq)
Energy eff. (Supply-side and Industry)
Health benefit
Energy eff. (Own production at plant…
Avoided crop loss
Fossil fuel switch
Biomass (crop residues in PP)
Zero Emission Renewables (hydro,…
Waste
CER cost ~10-15 Euro/tCO2eq
Coal bed methane
Cement
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
(Based on Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)
26
Sensitivity: Use of iF weighting reduces the
health damage estimates; use of geographical
weighting enhances them)
Figure: No weighting
Energy eff. (Supply-side and Industry)
Health benefit
Energy eff. (Own production at plant level)
Avoided crop loss
Fossil fuel switch
Biomass (crop residues in PP)
Zero Emission Renewables (hydro, wind..new PP)
Waste
Coal bed methane
Cement
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Euro/tCO2eq
27
Total benefit (avoided deaths and
crop loss) of CDM in China (2010):
14 billion RMB (~1.4 bill €)
Total benefit (RMB)
EE Supply-side
and Industry
7%
Cement
0%
N2O
0%
Forestry
0%
EE Own
Generation
18 %
F-Gas
0%
Coal bed methane
2%
FF Switch
10 %
Waste
0%
Zero Emission
Renewables
55 %
Biomass
8%
28
Value of co-benefits vs value of CERs
Forestry
EE Supply-side and Industry
Value of CER (bill RMB)
EE Own Generation
N2O
Health and crop co-benefit (bill RMB)
Cement
F-Gas
Coal bed methane
FF Switch
Waste
Biomass
Zero Emission Renewables
-5
0
5
10
15
20
29
Conclusions
• Energy related CDM projects in
China bring substantial health
and environmental co-benefits,
on average worth maybe ~1/3
of the CERs’ value
• Energy efficiency in industry and
power production has the largest
co-benefit rate per ton CO2
• Zero-emissions renewables
(wind, new solar and hydro..)
currently bring the largest cobenefits
• PDD currently not required to
provide AP impacts – perhaps
they should?
30