Engineering 10
Chp.6 Future
Challenges
Bruce Mayer, PE
Licensed Electrical & Mechanical Engineer
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
1
Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
UCBerkeley Engineering CC Day
 http://coe.berkeley.edu/students/prospectivestudents/prospective-student-events/community-collegeday-2.html
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
World Population Growth History
12
11
2100
10
World Population (Billions)
9
Old
Stone
7 Age
8
New Stone Age
Bronze
Age
Iron
Age
6
Modern
Age
Middle
Ages
2000
Future
5
4
1975
3
1950
2
1900
1
Black Death
1+ million 7000 6000 5000
years
B.C. B.C. B.C.
4000
B.C.
— The Plague
3000
B.C.
1800
2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D.
B.C. B.C.
1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Analyze Previous Plot
 WHY did the Population EXPLODE
Starting in about 1700?
1. ?
2. ?
3. ?
4. ?
5. ?
6. ?
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Worldwide Population Growth Trends
87
80
82
79
2
79
77
75
73
70
1.8
69
1.4
60
1.2
50
1
40
0.8
30
0.6
20
0.4
10
0.2
0
0
19801985
19851990
19901995
19952000
Net population added per year
20002005
20052010
20102015
20152020
Annual population growth rate
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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1.6
Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Growth Rate (%)
POPULATION Added (106)
90
Birth/Death Rates, Worldwide
Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1936- 1946- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 20001938 1948 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Birth rate
Death rate
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Regional Trends in Life Expectancy
Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years
70
67
71
76
65
59
56
54
49
44
Africa
Asia
More Developed
Latin
Regions
America/Caribbean
1965-1970
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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World
2000-2005
Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Latin Amer.
Asia
Africa
Region
More Devel. Reg.
Life Expectancy Improvement 2000 vs 1965
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Improvement In Live Expectancy over 35yr Period
25%
file =Bar_Charts_Future_Challenges_0309
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Analyze Previous Plot
 WHY/HOW did Asia Lead the World in
Life Expectancy Improvement?
1. ?
2. ?
3. ?
4. ?
5. ?
6. ?
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Pollution Improvement - Success
 USA Urban Areas Have Experienced
Significant Declines in Air Pollution
• Ozone
• Carbon
Monoxide
• Airborne
Lead
• Nitrogen
Dioxide
Source: http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/vmt_grwt.htm.
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Auto Emissions Controls
 Auto Emissions Have Been Reduced
by Technological Controls
 TOTAL Auto
Emissions Have
Been Reduced
Even as the
NUMBER of
Autos
INCREASED
Dramatically
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Emission Controls Effectiveness
 Dramatic
Improvement in
VOC Control
• Ozone Precursor
 NOx Held Flat
• contributes to both
– ozone
– nitrogen dioxide
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
California Auto Emmissions Analysis
2.6
2.4
2.2
Population (20M.)
Registered Vechicles (12M)
Normalized Value (1970 = 1.0)
VMT (110B)
2.0
NOx (5.3 g/mile)
1.8
Hydrocarbons (8.6)g/mile
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
http://www.arb.ca.gov/html/brochure/history.htm
0.0
1960
1970
1980
Year
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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1990
2000
file = Future_Challenges_0309
Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Technical Challenge
 Since 1970 the PER MILE Emissions
have Declined by About 2/3
• Technical Improvements Overwhelmed
Demographic &
Social Trends
– Greater Population
– More Cars
– Vehicle Miles
Traveled (VMT)
 How Can This
Continue?
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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
VMT Over 40 years Shows ONLY
GROWTH; Never a DECLINE
Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Auto Emissions - Summary
 Air Quality in USA Urban Areas
Continues to IMPROVE
• Due Largely to Technological Controls
 Improvement Likely to Continue
• Improved Engineered Controls
• Application of These Controls to Trucks
– Perhaps Off Road Vehicles
 EPA Estimates That Controls Can
Overcome added VMT for 10+ years
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Energy
 James Watt and His Predecessors
(e.g., Savery & Newcomen) FREED
Human Kind From Muscle Power
 The Heat Engine Was One of the Great
Advances in Human History
• Enabled the “Industrial Age”
 The Generation & Application of Energy
Multiplies The Capabilities of EVERY
Person
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Watt’s Engine
Watt, James (1736-1819)
Scottish inventor and
mechanical engineer,
renowned for his
improvements of the steam
engine. Watt was born on
January 19, 1736, in
Greenock, Scotland. He
worked as a mathematicalinstrument maker from the
age of 19 and soon became
interested in improving the
steam engines, invented by
the English engineers
Thomas Savery and Thomas
Newcomen, which were used
at the time to pump water
from mines.
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Energy Sources
 Let’s LIST Real And Potential Energy
Sources OTHER Than Fossil Fuels
1. ?
2. ?
3. ?
4. ?
5. ?
6. ?
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Energy Sources  Fact & Fancy
 Wind Power
• Wind Turbines Are VERY Attractive
– Energy Input to Produce is Low
– Incremental Added Capacity
– NO Emissions of Any Kind
• Limitations
– Low Energy Density
 Must Cover Large Areas to Produce Much Energy
 Intermittent source → Requires E-Storage
– Balance of System Costs
 Need AC→AC Frequency Converter
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Energy Sources  Fact & Fancy
 Split Wood, Not Atoms → BioMass
• Burning Garbage or Plant Matter
is Attractive
– Simultaneous Solution to Energy
and Solid-Waste Problems
– “Renewable” Resource
– Low Energy Input to Produce
• Limitation: Emission Stream
is VERY Unpleasant
– Scrubbing Wood-Smoke is MUCH Harder than
Cleaning Gasoline Combustion ByProducts
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Glen Canyon Dam – Page, AZ
 Electrical Power Generation
• River: Colorado River
• Plant Type: Conventional
• Powerhouse Type: Above Gnd
• Turbine Type: Francis
• Original Nameplate Capacity:
950,000 kW (950 MWe)
• Installed Capacity:1,304 MWe
• Year of Initial Operation:1964
• Net Generation (FY 2005):
3,208,591,407 kWh
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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• Rated Head:510 Bruce
feet
Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Glen Canyon Dam
Aerial View
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Glen Canyon Dam – Page, AZ
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Glen Canyon Dam – Power Gen
150 rpm
48 Poles
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Glen Canyon Dam – Power Gen
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Glen Canyon Dam – Power Gen
 Set-UP Transformers
13.8kV  230kV
or
13.8kV  345kV
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Francis Turbine
Generator System
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Energy Sources  Fact & Fancy
 Hydroelectric Power
• Fancy: Can Provide for Future Growth
• Fact: Almost ALL Viable Hydro Sites
Have Been USED
– Damming More Rivers is a Political Issue
 Ethanol as AutoMobile Fuel
• Fancy: Ethanol Can Replace Oil As a
Source for Automobile Fuel
• Fact: Making Ethanol from Corn May Use
MORE Energy than It Produces
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Energy Sources  Fact & Fancy
 Ethanol Continued
• DISTILLATION of Ethanol from Fermented
Corn Requires Large Amounts of Energy
– Usually Provided by Burning Fossil Fuels at the
Distillation Site, or at the Electrical Power Plant
 Solar PhotoVoltaics Can Supply
Future Needs
• Photovoltaic Solar-Electric Cells Have
Many Advantages
– Remote Siting, Incremental Expansion
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Energy Sources  Fact & Fancy
 Solar Cells Continued
• BUT Making a Solar Cell Requires
Large Amounts of Energy
– Silicon Cells are Made by, in the
Beginning, MELTING SAND
– Production Processes Can be
Energy Intensive as Well
• Connecting to the Existing Electric Grid
Includes a Great Deal of “Balance of
System” Components
– DC→AC “Inverters”, Battery Storage, etc.
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Energy Sources  Fact & Fancy
 Solar Cells Continued
• Solar Radiation has a
Very Low “Energy Density”
– Requires LARGE Areas to Collect
Significant Amounts of Energy
Proton
Exchange
Membrane
(PEM) FC
http://fuelcells.si.
edu/basics.htm
 Can Crowd-Out Other Uses:
Solar-Farm vs. Tomato-Farm
 Hydrogen Fuel Cells
• Based on Chemical Reaction
2H 2  O2  H 2O
See also http://www.olympusmicro.com/primer/java/fuelcell/
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Energy Sources  Fact & Fancy
 Hydrogen Fuel Cells Continued
• The Fuel Cell Reaction Looks Very Good
– NO VOCs/Hydrocarbon Emissions
– NO NOx emission
– NO Greenhouse Gases (CO2)
• But WHERE Do We Get the HYDROGEN?
– There are NO Hydrogen WELLS or MINES
• The Viable Sources of Massive Amounts of
Hydrogen themselves Require Large
Energy or Carbon Inputs
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Energy Sources  Fact & Fancy
 In Apr04 Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger
has proposed an ambitious network of
hydrogen filling stations by 2010
 See also http://www.hydrogenhighway.ca.gov/
 But How can we MAKE
all the Hydrogen
needed to Replace
Gasoline?
 There are 3 Viable Alternatives
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Energy Sources  Fact & Fancy
1. Use WIND or NUCLEAR Power to
generate Electricity which, in Turn,
would be Used to Electrolize WATER
•
Electrolosis applies Electrical current to
water and splits it into oxygen and
hydrogen, which are then separated..
•
The Chemical Reaction
2 H 2O  2 H 2  O2
ElectricalEnergy
 This is an EXTREMELY Energy Intensive Process
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Energy Sources  Fact & Fancy
2. Steam reforming of natural gas
•
If you take methane, the main component
of natural gas, and expose it to steam,
the final products are primarily carbon
dioxide and hydrogen. Chemically
CH4  2H 2O  4H 2  CO2
• This is already a Large-Volume Industrial
Process, but it produces a LOT of CO2 –
a GreenHouse Gas
• Natural Gas Supplies are Limited
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Energy Sources  Fact & Fancy
3. Coal gasification
•
hydrogen could be produced at
centralized plants, compressed and most
likely transported in trucks.
•
Coal is mostly carbon, but also contains
hydrogen and sulfur. Exposed to water at
high temperature and high pressure, it
chemically reacts to yield carbon
monoxide (CO) and hydrogen.
– But CO is Poisonous to Humans
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
May09 DoE Cuts H2 FCV Funding
 Issue #1: Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are
too expensive
 Issue #2: It is inefficient to make
hydrogen from natural gas
• Natural Gas Reforming is best for now
 Issue #3: Building a hydrogen
infrastructure is too difficult and costly
 Issue #4: Breakthroughs are needed in
hydrogen storage
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Energy Sources  Fact & Fancy
3. Coal gasification, cont.
•
Oxygen from additional water vapor turns
carbon monoxide into carbon dioxide. So
the end products are primarily carbon
dioxide and hydrogen gas. Chemically
CH 0.8 S0.005  xH2O  yH 2  zCO2  wH 2 S
• We have LOTS of Coal, but still need to
clean up the CO2 and H2S
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2008
USA Primary Energy
Production by Source
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
USA Energy Production Mix - 2008
BioMass, 5.29%
Wind, 0.70%
Solar/PV, 0.12%
Geothermal, 0.49%
Hydro, 3.33%
Coal, 32.36%
Nuclear, 11.47%
NGPL, 3.28%
Crude Oil, 14.27%
Natural Gas,
28.69%
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2008
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
USA Electricity Production Mix - 2007
Other
0.7%
Electrical Power Source
Fuel Oil
Total = 4 159 515 GWhe
RENEWABLES INCLUDE
• geothermal
• non-wood waste
• wind
• solar
1.6%
Renewables
2.5%
Hydro
Source = Edison Electric
Institute WebSite
5.8%
Nuclear
19.4%
Natural Gas
21.5%
Coal
48.6%
0%
5%
10%
USA_Electricity_Mix_0810.xls
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Fraction of Total Electrical Generation
Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
50%
55%
Energy  BackWork Ratio
 The BIG QUESTION for Any Energy Src
• For Every Unit of Energy OUTput, How Much
Energy was INput for the ENTIRE Production
Stream?
– In Electrical Power Generation, for the Steady-State
Condition, this is called the “BackWork Ratio”
Power to Run the Plant
BWR 
Power Output of the Plant
 Many Energy Sources Fail This Question
• e.g., Many Solar-Electric Systems will NOT
Return the Energy Required to Make Them
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
All Done for Today
California’s
Hydrogen
HighWay
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt
A Potential Energy Scenario
Engineering-10: Intro to Engineering
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Bruce Mayer, PE
BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu • ENGR-10_Lec-09_Chp6_Population_Energy.ppt