SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MODELING OF
COLORADO PLATEAU LANDSCAPES
FROM CONCEPTUAL MODELS TO A
COMPUTER SYSTEM
Chew, Jimmie D., Kirk Moeller, and Chris Stalling
Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT
SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MODELING OF COLORADO PLATEAU LANDSCAPES – FROM CONCEPTUAL
MODELS TO A COMPUTER SYSTEM
Chew, Jimmie D., Kirk Moeller, and Chris Stalling
Models are an essential means of incorporating science into adaptive ecosystem management. The
development and use of models facilitates the explicit specification of assumptions on ecosystem
functioning and the analysis of management alternatives with the uncertainties that come with
limited scientific information. The process of building and using models provides transparency and
enables the critical examination of assumptions. Spatially explicit simulation models can generate
hypotheses concerning future trajectories of ecosystems and valued ecosystem attributes. The
integration of simulation modeling into management planning can allow managers, resource specialists,
and stakeholders to examine and compare potential outcomes of proposed management alternatives in
relation to management objectives and desired conditions. SIMPPLLE is a spatially explicit
landscape-scale modeling system for simulating vegetation changes caused by disturbance processes
of wildfire, insects, and diseases. Stochastic simulations provide a range in vegetation conditions and
levels of disturbance processes. A system variable of “regional climate” is used to capture the
interaction between cyclic changes in temperature and moisture and disturbance processes.
SIMPPLLE was originally developed for ecosystems in the Northern Rocky Mountains and its
application to the Colorado Plateau is being done through the FRAMES (Framing Research to support
Adaptive Management of Ecosystems) project which involves the U.S. Geological Survey, USDA
Forest Service, Colorado State University, Mesa Verde National Park, Prescott College, and Northern
Arizona University. The system uses conceptual models and research results specific to the Colorado
Plateau and has the potential to integrate vegetation, soil, and aquatic components of landscapes.
Simulation results from Mesa Verde National Park are used to quantify current trends, historic
conditions, and management alternatives.
Specific objectives for this presentation:
Display how SIMPPLLE can build upon conceptual models
how we can capture the relationships in conceptual models
how the conceptual models can help identify what is still
missing in our system.
SIMulating
Patterns and
Processes at
Landscape
scaLEs
Initial Geographic Zones in SIMPPLLE 2.3
Westside & Eastside Region One
all vegetation types
JFS Project added Zones in SIMPPLLE 2.3
South Central Alaska
white spruce
Westside & Eastside Region One
all vegetation types
Southwest Utah
Sagebrush & PinionJuniper
Sierra Nevada
Mixed Conifers
Southern California
Chaparral
Gila NF
Ponderosa Pine & Pinion-Juniper
Michigan
Jack Pine &
Hardwoods
Zones added in 2005
South Central Alaska
white spruce
Michigan
Westside & Eastside Region One
Jack Pine &
Hardwoods
all vegetation types
Mixed Grass Prairie
Southwest Utah
Sagebrush & PinionJuniper
Great Plains Steppe
Western Great Plains Steppe
Sierra Nevada
Mixed Conifers
Colorado Front Range
Southern California
Chaparral
Gila NF
Ponderosa Pine & Pinion-Juniper
Zones added in 2005
South Central Alaska
white spruce
Michigan
Westside & Eastside Region One
Jack Pine &
Hardwoods
all vegetation types
Mixed Grass Prairie
Southwest Utah
Sagebrush & PinionJuniper
Great Plains Steppe
Colorado Plateau
Western Great Plains Steppe
Sierra Nevada
Mixed Conifers
Colorado Front Range
all vegetation types
Southern California
Chaparral
Gila NF
Ponderosa Pine & Pinion-Juniper
Conceptual Models used:
From Draft Reports
John Vankat, Montane and Subalpine Terrestrial Ecosystems of the
Southern Colorado Plateau – Literature Review and Conceptual
Models.
Mark Miller, 2004. Structure and functioning of dryland ecosystems:
Conceptual models to inform the vital-signs selection process:
Ecosystem Characterization Model
Dynamics Model: Vegetation - Disturbance Interaction
Mechanistic Model: Vegetation - Fuel - Disturbance
Interaction
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
13 increase insect
populations
9
All
the screens come from SIMPPLLE’s
10
user
interface
uptake resources
input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
16
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
what we have in SIMPPLLE
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality,Invasions
vegetation Following Fire in Southwestern Colorado:
Non-Native
pattern, & fuel
13 increase
insect And Future Predictions
Long-termconsumption
Effectiveness
of Mitigation
Treatments
&
populations
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
ANIMALS
STRUCTURE
Insects
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
Mammals
PATTERNS
use
habitat
12
May 2004
16
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
Lisa Floyd-Hanna, David Hanna, William H. Romme, Tim Crews
EXOTIC
SPECIES
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
17influence macroclimate
FIRE
EXCLUSION
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
AIR
POLLUTION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
COMPARE THE DIFFERENT PROBABILITY AS A
RESULT OF DIFFERENT COMBIATIONS
Where do these number come from?
Someone has to take the research and the practical
experience you have and “frame” it to be useful
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
replace native species
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
13 increase insect
populations
The
spatial relationships between types
9
of
units from the gis covers are
10
carried
in SIMPPLLE
15
19
16
18
uptake resources
input organic matter
& retain soil
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
influence herb & shrub cover,
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
spread fires
Into ecosystem
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
soil & alter
soil components
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
13 increase insect
These spatial relationship can be
10
used throughout SIMPPLLE
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
16
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
CLIMATE – WEATHER
LIGHTNING
PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION
WIND
EXTREME EVENTS
5
3 ignite fires &
influence fire behavior
1
influence soil
moisture & erosion
influence habitat
14
availability
influence fuel
2
moisture, plant
vitality, & plant
mortality
soil & alter
soil components
9 uptake resources
SOIL SYSTEM
Water & minerals
Decomposers
Mycorrhizae
10 input organic matter
& retain soil
replace native species 15
& influence fuels
EXOTIC
SPECIES
DISTURBANCE
FIRE
Insects
7
8 expose
LANDSCAPE
Position
influence microclimate
Topography
& runoff
Elevation
Proximity to Ponderosa
Pine Forest
4
spread fires into ecosystem
& influence fire pattern
6
influence tree
mortality, vegetation
pattern, & fuel
consumption &
production
influence tree
regeneration
VEGETATION & FUELS
& fuels
11
STRUCTURE
SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE
PATTERNS
12 use habitat
16
13 increase insect
populations
ANIMALS
Insects
Mammals
19
18 influence herb & shrub cover,
spread fires
Into ecosystem
tree regeneration, & fuels
FIRE
EXCLUSION
HISTORIC
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
AIR
POLLUTION
ADJACENT
LAND USE
spread exotic species into ecosystem 20
17influence macroclimate
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
Spreading processes – how do they affect the decision on
identifying the Minimum Dynamic Area (MDA)
Area 8
Area 17
A comparison of simulated
processes on two different landscapes
(From analysis by Robert Ahl, graduate student, University of Montana)
Area 8
Very distinct boundaries
between watersheds.
Area 17
Watershed boundaries are
less distinct and tend to be
forested.
Geographic Area 8
origin and spread taken from one SIMPPLLE simulation
Fire Originated
Fire Spread
Notice how watershed
boundaries restrict
spread
Geographic Area 17
origin and spread from one SIMPPLLE simulation
Fire Originated
Fire Spread
Notice how watershed
boundaries do not restrict
spread
STATE A
STATE B
B1
EARLY SUCCESSIONAL
SHRUBLAND
variable composition
TRANSITION A
greatly
decreased
frequency of
surface fires
A2
WOODLAND
Ju spp., Pi spp.
5
10
3
B2
MID SUCCESSIONAL
WOODLAND
Ju spp., Pi spp.
restoration of
woodland
structure &
surface fire
regime
7
B3
7
DENSE FOREST
Ju spp., Pi spp.
surface fire
TRANSITION B
large, soil-sterilizing
or soil-eroding
crown fire
soil recovery & restoration
of vegetation
STATE C
C1
NON-WOODLAND/
FOREST/SAVANNA
variable composition
10
Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Ecosystem Dynamics Model
Vegetation - Disturbance Interaction
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
STATE A
STATE B
Relationships
in the “disturbance interaction”
model are capture in SIMPPLLE’s pathways
B1
EARLY SUCCESSIONAL
SHRUBLAND
variable composition
TRANSITION A
greatly
decreased
frequency of
surface fires
A2
WOODLAND
Ju spp., Pi spp.
5
10
3
B2
MID SUCCESSIONAL
WOODLAND
Ju spp., Pi spp.
restoration of
woodland
structure &
surface fire
regime
7
B3
7
DENSE FOREST
Ju spp., Pi spp.
surface fire
TRANSITION B
large, soil-sterilizing
or soil-eroding
crown fire
soil recovery & restoration
of vegetation
STATE C
C1
NON-WOODLAND/
FOREST/SAVANNA
variable composition
10
Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Ecosystem Dynamics Model
Vegetation - Disturbance Interaction
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
STATE A
STATE B
B1
EARLY SUCCESSIONAL
SHRUBLAND
variable composition
TRANSITION A
greatly
decreased
frequency of
surface fires
A2
WOODLAND
Ju spp., Pi spp.
5
10
3
B2
MID SUCCESSIONAL
WOODLAND
Ju spp., Pi spp.
restoration of
woodland
structure &
surface fire
regime
7
B3
7
DENSE FOREST
Ju spp., Pi spp.
surface fire
TRANSITION B
large, soil-sterilizing
or soil-eroding
crown fire
soil recovery & restoration
of vegetation
STATE C
C1
NON-WOODLAND/
FOREST/SAVANNA
variable composition
10
Pathways stratified by ecological sites
Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Ecosystem Dynamics Model
Vegetation - Disturbance Interaction
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
STATE A
STATE B
B1
EARLY SUCCESSIONAL
SHRUBLAND
variable composition
TRANSITION A
Ecological Site
greatly
decreased
frequency of
surface fires
A2
WOODLAND
Ju spp., Pi spp.
5
10
3
B2
MID SUCCESSIONAL
WOODLAND
Ju spp., Pi spp.
restoration of
woodland
structure &
surface fire
regime
7
B3
7
DENSE FOREST
Ju spp., Pi spp.
surface fire
TRANSITION B
large, soil-sterilizing
or soil-eroding
crown fire
soil recovery & restoration
of vegetation
STATE C
C1
NON-WOODLAND/
FOREST/SAVANNA
variable composition
Collection of states (species/size-class/density)
with
10
Next-state as result of a disturbance process
Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Ecosystem Dynamics Model
Vegetation - Disturbance Interaction
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
STATE A
STATE B
Ecological Site
B1
EARLY SUCCESSIONAL
SHRUBLAND
variable composition
TRANSITION A
greatly
decreased
frequency of
surface fires
A2
WOODLAND
Ju spp., Pi spp.
5
10
B2
MID SUCCESSIONAL
WOODLAND
Ju spp., Pi spp.
restoration of
woodland
Ecological Site structure &
surface fire
3
regime
7
B3
7
DENSE FOREST
Ju spp., Pi spp.
surface fire
TRANSITION B
large, soil-sterilizing
or soil-eroding
crown fire
soil recovery & restoration
of vegetation
STATE C
A state exists for each 10 year time
Step – states can be edited
C1
NON-WOODLAND/
FOREST/SAVANNA
variable composition
10
Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Ecosystem Dynamics Model
Vegetation - Disturbance Interaction
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
STATE A
STATE B
B1
EARLY SUCCESSIONAL
SHRUBLAND
variable composition
TRANSITION A
Ecological Site
greatly
decreased
frequency of
surface fires
A2
WOODLAND
Ju spp., Pi spp.
5
10
3
B2
MID SUCCESSIONAL
WOODLAND
Ju spp., Pi spp.
restoration of
woodland
structure &
surface fire
regime
7
B3
7
DENSE FOREST
Ju spp., Pi spp.
surface fire
TRANSITION B
large, soil-sterilizing
or soil-eroding
crown fire
soil recovery & restoration
of vegetation
STATE C
C1
NON-WOODLAND/
FOREST/SAVANNA
variable composition
A separate diagram exists for each
process in the system
10
Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Ecosystem Dynamics Model
Vegetation - Disturbance Interaction
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
STATE A
STATE B
B1
EARLY SUCCESSIONAL
SHRUBLAND
variable composition
Ecological Site
TRANSITION A
greatly
decreased
frequency of
surface fires
A2
WOODLAND
Ju spp., Pi spp.
10
3
Ecological Site
5
B2
MID SUCCESSIONAL
WOODLAND
Ju spp., Pi spp.
restoration of
woodland
structure &
surface fire
regime
7
B3
7
DENSE FOREST
Ju spp., Pi spp.
surface fire
TRANSITION B
large, soil-sterilizing
or soil-eroding
crown fire
soil recovery & restoration
of vegetation
STATE C
C1
NON-WOODLAND/
FOREST/SAVANNA
variable composition
10
Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Ecosystem Dynamics Model
Vegetation - Disturbance Interaction
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
Vegetation pathways provide:
All possible “states” for
a species on a ecological site
The next-state that results from
a disturbance process or succession
Time within a size class
Changes in density over time with
succession
Pathways don’t provide:
The probability of processes
occurring - this is influenced by
spatially explicit information
The results of regeneration – this is
influenced by spatially explicit
information
FUEL
MOISTURE
FIRE
FREQUENCY
HERBS & SHRUBS
Cover
SURFACE
FUEL
CONTINUITY
FIRE BEHAVIOR
Surface Fire
Crown Fire
COMMUNITY
TYPE
TREES
Density
Cover
FIRE
INTENSITY
FUEL TYPE
& LOAD
BARK BEETLE
OUTBREAK
ADJACENT
LAND USE
FIRE
EXCLUSION
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Mechanistic Model
Vegetation - Fuel - Disturbance Interaction
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
FIRE TYPE and FIRE SPREAD LOGIC
FUEL
MOISTURE
FIRE
FREQUENCY
HERBS & SHRUBS
Cover
SURFACE
FUEL
CONTINUITY
FIRE BEHAVIOR
Surface Fire
Crown Fire
COMMUNITY
TYPE
TREES
Density
Cover
FIRE
INTENSITY
FUEL TYPE
& LOAD
BARK BEETLE
OUTBREAK and ENDEMIC LEVELS
ADJACENT
LAND USE –FIRE EVENTS SPREADING FROM
OR LETTING FIRES SPREAD
FIRE
EXCLUSION
LIVESTOCK
GRAZING and OTHER TEATMENTS
Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Mechanistic Model
Vegetation - Fuel - Disturbance Interaction
SCPN
John Vankat
June 2005
All interact to produce:
An individual fire event from a time step
in a single simulation
Light severity fire
Mixed severity fire
Stand replacing fire
Probability of an intensity of fire
across all timesteps from multiple
simulations
What’s in SIMPPLLE
We can recreate this relationship
Mesa Verde National Park
SIMPPLLE simulation
acres
acres of size class from a simulation with "historic
grazing" and fire suppression
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
herbacious
seedling / saplings
medium
1
2
3
4
5
6
decade
7
8
9 10
Not in SIMPPLLE
Have the potential to expand
Landunit Pathways
Do we add?
Landunit Process
We have:
Grass component
We have:
Shrub component
Grass component
We have:
Tree component
Shrub component
Grass component
We have:
Do we add?
Tree component
Shrub component
Grass component
Biological soil crust
Hydrologic response to vegetation changes can be modeled
with linkages to USGS’s distributed watershed models
using SIMPPLLE output
Mesa Verde NP – Colorado Plateau
Potential to bring information back from watershed models
to use in SIMPPLLE
Mesa Verde NP – Colorado Plateau
We can “capture” the components and relationships within
conceptual models.
SIMulating
Patterns and
Processes at
Landscape
scaLEs
We can “capture” the components and relationships within
conceptual models.
How far we go with the modeling depends on what managers find useful to help them in
”Framing Research for Adaptive
Management of Ecosystems.”
SIMulating
Patterns and
Processes at
Landscape
scaLEs
SIMulating
Patterns and
Processes at
Landscape
scaLEs