Summary of Events leading
to Think Tank
1
Topics
1.  Pre-season forecasts of returns
2.  In-season management
3.  Outcomes
4.  Longer term trends
2
1. 2009 Fraser River
Forecasts
•  10.5 million sockeye
•  17.5 million pink salmon…
BUT
Forecasts are very uncertain!
Sockeye in 2009
1 in 4 chance of return less than 6M
1 in 4 chance of return greater than 19M
Fishery
Managers
plan
for
range
of
returns
3
Fisheries are NOT opened
based on Forecasts.
2. In-season management
4
Fraser
River
Panel:
Management
objec;ves
1.  Achieve Spawning Escapement Targets
by group (Early Stuart, Early Summer, Summer and Late-run)
2. International sharing of the TAC 83.5%
3. Domestic catch allocations
First Nations
(Food, Social, Ceremonial)
Commercial
(Gill net, purse seine, troll)
Recreational
16.5%
Indian and non-Indian
Purse seine
Gill net
Reef net
5
Components of In-season
assessments
1.  Test fishing - provides early indication of
abundance in marine areas
2.  Acoustics monitoring at Mission
–estimates abundances headed upstream
3.  Genetic stock determination (DNA) –
partitions abundances into component stocks
4.  Scales - provide ages of fish
6
Migration timing of
management groups
Daily
Abundance
June
September
Early - Early - Summer - Late
Stuart Summer
Time
7
Pre-season expectations
timing and abundance
2009 Early Stuart Migration
12,000
Pre-Season Forecast (165,000)
10,000
Daily
Abundance
8,000
Pre-season forecast is
spread over 30 days,
with peak based on
historical timing data.
Expect about 10,000
fish on July 4
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
15-Jun
22-Jun
29-Jun
06-Jul
13-Jul
20-Jul
27-Jul
Date passing marine area (Juan de Fuca Strait)
8
In-season assessments
2009 Early Stuart Migration
12,000
Pre-Season Forecast (165,000)
10,000
2009 In-season assessment (85,000)
8,000
Daily
Abundance
How
we
spend
Summer
vaca;on
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
15-Jun
22-Jun
29-Jun
06-Jul
13-Jul
20-Jul
Date passing marine areas (Juan de Fuca Strait)
27-Jul
9
In-season assessments
2009 Summer Run Sockeye Migration
500,000
Pre-season Forecast
(8,677,000)
400,000
Daily
Abundance
2009 In-season
assessment (644,000)
300,000
Summer
run
sockeye
abundance
was
about
7%
of
the
forecast
200,000
100,000
0
04-Jul
14-Jul
24-Jul
03-Aug
13-Aug
23-Aug
Date passing Juan de Fuca Strait
02-Sep
10
3. 2009 outcomes
11
2009 Sockeye return
•  Pre-season forecast 10.5M
(Range 3.5M-37.6M)
•  Preliminary post-season: 1.5M
(lowest since 1947)
12
2009 Sockeye catch
•  Total catch 124,000
•  8% of the run was harvested
leaving 92% of the run available
for spawning escapement
13
2009 Sockeye Spawning
escapements
Management
group
Average
escapement
2009
escapement (2009 cycle;
1953,57,61,…
(adults)
2005)
Early Stuart
45,000
222,000
Early Summer
92,000
100,000
Summer
478,000
1,853,000
Late
441,000
139,000
Total
1,056,000
2,314,000
14
4. Long term patterns in
Fraser Sockeye returns
40
4 year intervals, 1893, 1897… 1989, 1993
30
Other years
Total
Return 20
(millions)
10
0
15
Long term patterns in
Fraser Sockeye returns
25
4 year intervals
Average
or “cycles”
1952‐2008
3.8
20
1953‐2009
1993 return
23.6 =2.6
Avg. 1953 cycle 9.1
9.1
1954‐2006
12.2
Total
15
Return
1955‐2007
5.3
(millions)
10
5
0
1952
1960
1968
1976
1984
1992
2000
2008
16
Long term trends
Total
Fraser
sockeye
(all
stocks)
3
2
100%
1993
Total
Return
index
(ra;o
to
cycle
average)
80%
60%
40%
1
20%
0
1952
3
1960
1968
1976
1984
1992
2000
2008
1952
8
2
2005
2005
0%
10
Spawning
escapement
index
(ra;o
to
cycle
average)
Percent of run
harvested
1960
1968
1976
1984
1992
2000
2008
Produc;vity
(Adult
returns
per
spawner)
6
4
1
2
0
1952
2009
0
1960
1968
1976
1984
1992
2000
2008
1952
1960
1968
1976
1984
1992
2000
17
2008
Impacts of declining productivity
on 2010 planning
1.
Pre-season forecasts
2010 forecasts have been made using 3
scenarios of productivity: long term average,
recent year average, same as 2009.
(Draft Integrated Fishery Management Plan IFMP)
2.
Escapement policy
2010 Escapement memo provides some
information on the implications of low
productivity (App.12 IFMP).
18
The End
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