CPASW March 23, 2006
INTEGRATED FORECAST AND
MANAGEMENT IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA – INFORM
A Demonstration Project
Present: Eylon Shamir
HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH CENTER
GEORGIA WATER RESOURCES INSTITUTE
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org
„INFORM:
Integrated Forecast and Management in Northern California
Hydrologic Research Center & Georgia Water Resources Institute
Sponsors:
CALFED Bay Delta Authority
California Energy Commission
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Collaborators:
California Department of Water Resources
California-Nevada River Forecast Center
Sacramento Area Flood Control Agency
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
U.S. Bureau of Reclamation
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org
Vision Statement
„
Increase efficiency of water use in
Northern California using climate,
hydrologic and decision science
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org
Goal and Objectives
„
Demonstrate the utility of climate and hydrologic
forecasts for water resources management in Northern
California
„
Implement integrated forecast-management systems for
the Northern California reservoirs using real-time data
„
Perform tests with actual data and with management
input
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org
Major Resevoirs in Nothern California
Application Area
41.5
Capacity of Major Reservoirs
Sacramen to Ri ver
(million acre-feet):
41
Pit River
Trinity - 2.4
Shasta - 4.5
Oroville - 3.5
Folsom - 1
Trinity
Degrees North Latitude
Trinity
40.5
Shast a
Shasta
Trinity River
Feath er Ri ver
40
39.5
O rovil le
Oroville
N. Fo rk Ame rican River
39
F olsom
Folsom
38.5
123.5
123
122.5
122
121.5
121
120.5
Degrees West Longitude
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Elevation (meters)
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org
The hydrologic objectives complexity
„
„
„
„
„
„
„
„
„
Objectives
Comply with water supply to the delta
Flood mitigation and control
Water resources (2/3 of California potable water)
Fishery (Salmon hatching) (manage water temperature)
Agriculture in the Central Valley (7 million acres of irrigated AG)
Hydro power generation
In-stream ecology
Recreation
„
Issues
„
„
„
„
Increasing Demand (California‘s Growing economy)
Aging infrastructure
Climate Change in the Sierra Nevada
Environmental Regulations
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org
Utility of hydrologic forecast:
A retrospective study for Folsom Lake
„
Compare between:
„
current operational rules (nowcast with no forecast)
and 1970-1992 forecast was generated every 5-day
with daily resolution for 2-month horizon from:
„
NWS procedure for Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
(ESP)
„
Monthly estimates of precipitation and temperature
from two Global Climate Models (GCM)
„
„
„
„
„
„
a) Canadian model (CGCM)
b) Max Plank Institute of Meteorology (ECHAM)
Perfect forecast scenario (retrospective) data
Georgakakos et al. 2005 EOS
Carpenter and Georgakakos 2001 J. of Hydrology
Yao and Georgakakos 2001 J. of Hydrology
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org
ESP
Results of operation
based on rigid operational rules
0
70
10
PERFECT
20
ECHAM
30
CGCM
40
ESP
50
OPERATIONAL
ENERGY VALUE (M$)
60
0
Carpenter and Georgakakos (2001); Yao and Georgakakos (2001); Georgakakos et al., (2004)
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org
PERFECT
200
ECHAM
400
CGCM
600
ESP
0
800
OPERATIONAL
MAXIMUM FLOOD DAMAGE (M$)
2
PERFECT
4
dependent on: the quality of forecast and the
decision
ECHAM
6
Benefit
CGCM
8
1000
ESP
SPILLAGE (BCF)
10
Benefits For Folsom Reservoir
Feasibility
Studies
OPERATIONAL
12
The problem
„
Synoptic and climatic forecast contain uncertainty
„
„
The effective use of these needs to explicitly account for the
uncertainty both in the forecast and the operational
management
Reservoir is operated based on nowcast information and
under institutional constrains
„
Rigid rules that provide list of actions based on current
information
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org
Demonstration Concept
Fixed Operation
Real Time Input
Rules
ACTUAL
System
VIRTUAL
Characteristics
Flexible
Trade-offs
Measurable
Benefits
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
Other
Benefits
Decision Maker
www.hrc-web.org
Measurable
Other
Benefits
Benefits
The modeling Components
Global Forecast System (GFS)
Climate Forecasts System (CFS)
(1° x 1°) 8 traces, 6-hour time
step,
Updated 4-time per day
0-16 days lead time
16-day to-9-month lead time
Updated daily
Downscale
Precipitation
Orographic model
(10 x 10) km
Radiative transfer
Surface temperature
Conditional ESP
16-day to 9-month
Ensembles
12-hr/1-day resolution
Semi distributed Snow and
Hydrologic model
Ensemble Hydrologic Model Input
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org
DSS – Multi Objective and temporal scale
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org
Precipitation Downscaling – Performance Measures
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org
Temperature Downscaling - Tests
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org
Examples of Hydrologic Performance Analysis –
Time Series
OROVILLE DAILY FLOW - CMS
1000
400
500
200
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
Water Year 1961
300
350
3000
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
Water Year 1962
300
350
0
50
100
150
200
250
Water Year 1964
300
350
0
50
100
150
200
250
Water Year 1966
300
350
0
50
100
150
200
250
Water Year 1968
300
350
0
50
100
150
200
250
Water Year 1970
300
350
400
2000
200
1000
CMS
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
Water Year 1963
300
350
0
4000
400
2000
200
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
Water Year 1965
300
350
1500
0
1000
1000
500
500
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
Water Year 1967
300
350
3000
3000
2000
2000
1000
1000
0
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
Water Year 1969
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
300
350
0
www.hrc-web.org
Examples of Hydrologic Performance Analysis –
Monthly Climatology
0.5
0.5
Observed
Simulated
0.4
0.4
0.35
0.35
Folsom
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
4
6
8
Month (Oct through Sep)
10
0
12
0.5
4
6
8
Month (Oct through Sep)
10
12
Observed
Simulated
0.45
0.4
0.4
Trinity
0.3
0.35
Montly fraction
0.35
0.25
0.2
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
2
4
6
8
Month (Oct through Sep)
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
10
12
Shasta
0.3
0.15
0
2
0.5
Observed
Simulated
0.45
Montly fraction
0.25
0.15
2
Oroville
0.3
0.15
0
Observed
Simulated
0.45
Montly fraction
Montly fraction
0.45
0
2
4
6
8
Month (Oct through Sep)
www.hrc-web.org
10
12
SAMPLE RELIABILITY DIAGRAMS
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org
Conclusion of Hydrologic Performance Analysis
¾INFORM hydrology model performed well and captured the
hydrologic response with respect to timing and magnitude,
and for various temporal scales
¾Performance analogous to what was found for the
operational CNRFC hydrology forecast model running with
the same parameters
¾Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP) have been
validated over the historical horizon for all reservoir sites
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org
Sample of INFORM Product
Global Forecast System
(GFS)
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
Ensemble Streamflow
Prediction (ESP)
www.hrc-web.org
Web Dissemination
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org
Forecast issued: March 9, 2006 22:00 PST
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org
Forecast issued: March 9, 2006 22:00 PST
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org
FUTURE PLANS
¾INFORM quasi-operational testing during Winter 2005 and
performance assessment
¾Use the INFORM structure for assessing climate and demand
change impacts on management for conservation, flood control,
downstream objectives and energy production
¾What-if simulations for training, preparation and modification of
current operational procedures
Eylon Shamir: EShamir@hrc-lab.org
www.hrc-web.org