Confirming the opportunities for
Irish Suppliers within the UK
Gluten/Wheat Free Market
Data ending 52 weeks17th February 2013
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR WORLDPANEL METHODOLOGY
Purchase
Demographically Representative
Social Class
Main Shopper Age
Number of Children
Size of Household
Region of residence
30,000 GB Households
continuously reporting
their purchasing
Key Areas Purchase Data can be
Used
1. Understanding the shopper and
their behaviour
2. Building trade relationships
3. Growing Brands/ Category
4. Gaining & protecting listings
2
© Kantar Worldpanel
KANTAR MARKET DATA IS THE CURRENCY WITHIN THE INDUSTRY
4
© Kantar Worldpanel
How big is Gluten
Free and how
does it perform?
Which sectors are
best to play in?
Where are the retailer
opportunities?
Who are the key
brands?
Which shoppers
should we go after?
5
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
GF BAKERY
6
© Kantar Worldpanel
DEFINITION OF KANTAR GLUTEN/ WHEAT FREE MARKET
Any product with (GF) / Wheat Free (WF) in the barcode description
and well known GF Brands. Termed Gluten Free as all Gluten Free is
also Wheat Free
For example:
ALDI GF HAM JOINTS
DEBBIE AND ANDREW GF SAUSAGES
KALLO ORG GF RICE CAKES
NAIRNS WF OAT CAKES
MR MASH GF
TESCO FF CHEESE
YOUNGS FF FISHFINGERS
7
© Kantar Worldpanel
How big is Gluten Free and how
does it perform?
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
GLUTEN FREE: MEDIUM SIZED, EXCEPTIONAL GROWTH
Total
Grocery
+3.7%
Total Free
From +24%
Same size as:
Shellfish
£180m
+37%
Extra £48m
Larger than:
Nuts
Herbs& Spices
Tinned Fruit
Lemonade
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
9
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
SHOPPERS DRIVE OVER HALF OF GROWTH, DEMONSTRATING AN
APPETITE FOR GLUTEN FREE (GF)
£27m
£12m
£3m
£6m
Penetration
Frequency
Trip Size
Price / pack
42% of HHs
6 trips a year
1.7 packs
£1.65
+8%
+2%
+4%
11m
HHs
18%
*Penetration contributions includes Population growth of 1%
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
10
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
IN THE LAST YEAR, MORE AND MORE SHOPPERS HAVE ENTERED
THE MARKET AND BASKET SIZES HAVE INCREASED
Frequency
Trip Packs
Price per Pack
Penetration (%)
Total Contribution (£000s)
Accelerated growth
60,000
Contribution
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
11
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
TESCO FREEFROM DRIVE A HIGH PROPORTION OF GROWTH IN
GLUTEN FREE BUT THE OVERALL IMPACT OF THE SMALLER
RANGES CONTRIBUTE THE MOST
Asda Free From
Debbie & Andrews
Marigold
Mrs Crimbles
M+S
Contribution to YOY%
The Black Farmer
Dietary Specialities
Doves Farm
Kallo Organic
Doves Farm Organic
Kallo
Nairns
Naked Food Co
M+S Free From
Sainsbury Freefrom
Aldi
Genius
Look What We Found
Warburtons Gluten Free
Tesco Freefrom
All Others
Only splits out top 20 ranges
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
12
© Kantar Worldpanel
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
13
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
THESE THREE SECTORS ALONE ACCOUNT FOR NEARLY 80% OF
TESCO FREE FROM GROWTH
Which sectors contribute the most to Tesco Free From
growth?
Liquid Dairy Alternatives
Chilled
Desserts
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
14
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
WARBURTONS CONTINUAL GROWTH NOW MAKES IT LARGER THAN
DIETARY SPECIALITIES
Tesco Freefrom
Warburtons Gluten Free
Genius
Dietary Specialities
Sainsbury Freefrom
Nairns
20,000
18,000
16,000
Value sales £000s)
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Graph only displays top 6 ranges
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
15
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
WARBURTONS FIRST LAUNCHED INTO THE GLUTEN FREE MARKET
IN JANUARY 2011 AND HAVE SINCE EXPANDED THEIR RANGE
2012
2011
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
16
© Kantar Worldpanel
17
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
WARBURTONS TARGET SUFFERERS WITH THEIR NEW ‘SPECIALIST’
LOOK
More specialised –
focusing on sufferers
18
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
THIS SPRING ANOTHER A-LIST FMCG PLAYER, HEINZ LAUNCHES
“shoppers were often reluctant
to try gluten-free products as
they tended to be made by
relatively unknown brands”
Corn,
Potato and
Lupin Flour
Available in Tesco, Morrisons and
Asda stores from Spring 2013
19
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
49% OF ALL GLUTEN FREE BUYERS THIS YEAR ARE NEW TO THE
CATEGORY (5.6M HHs)
Who are the lost
shoppers?
• 98% nonsufferers
• Sweet
Biscuits
• Pasta
• Chilled
• Rice cakes
Bought both years
51
61
Repeat
Only bought in 2013
New
49
39
Only bought in 2012
Lost
Last year
This year
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
20
© Kantar Worldpanel
Is a trend to buy Gluten Free
behind the influx of new
shoppers?
22
© Kantar Worldpanel
Possibly. Celebrities are encouraging
a gluten free diet
World No. 1 Novak Djokovic has played in
three Grand Slam finals since switching to
a gluten-free diet.
„Gluten Free is the way to be‟
'Everyone should try no gluten for a
week. The change in your skin,
physical and mental health is amazing.
U won‟t go back!‟
© Kantar Worldpanel
However, it’s not all good publicity
“Every single nutritionist, doctor and
health-conscious person I have ever come
across… seems to concur that (gluten) is
tough on the system and many of us are at
best intolerant”
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
INDICATING A TREND, 97% OF NEW GF SHOPPERS ARE NOT
SUFFERERS
However, new shoppers buy a wide range of brands,
indicating an interest in the category overall
Wheat or Gluten Intolerant HHs
Non allergic HHs
2.8
Mr Mash
6
8
Look What We‟ve Found
Aldi
10
Tesco Free From
10
97.2
New, Non sufferering shoppers (Spend %
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
25
© Kantar Worldpanel
TOTAL FREE FROM
ALTHOUGH A TREND MAY HAVE ENCOURAGED SHOPPERS
RECENTLY, GF HAS POSTED SIGNIFICANT GROWTH FOR THE LAST
THREE YEARS AND HAS ALWAYS DRIVEN FREE FROM SALES
Total Free From
Gluten &/or Wheat Free
Other Free From
40
37
35
30
24
YOY % Value Change
25
20
17
15
12
8
10
5
19
14
12
10
8
8
3
0
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
26
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
THE FUTURE OF GLUTEN FREE…
Room to grow:
˃Gluten Free Brands in the UK look to the US to predict trends in the UK
˃US Gluten free foods industry $4.2 billion 1% of US grocery
˃Gluten Free in the UK is still only 0.1%.
Greater exposure:
˃Large FMCG brands continue to launch: Tesco, Heinz & Warburtons
Increasing need:
˃Extra 5.6 Million more GB households buying Gluten Free this year
˃Coeliac Disease 4 X more common than 50 years ago
˃Houses can turn into a Gluten Free Zone
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
27
© Kantar Worldpanel
How big is the Gluten/ Wheat Free Market?
£180M
Is it growing and for how long?
+37% 10 x faster than grocery and not slowing yet
What drives growth?
Shoppers who are not just Gluten/ Wheat intolerant
© Kantar Worldpanel
Which sectors are best
to play in?
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
BREAD AND CHILLED GOODS ACCOUNT FOR 20% OF THE MARKET
AND BOTH SEE GROWTH OF OVER 10%
Chocolate
Confectione
ry
Bread
Main Meals
Pizzas
Sweet Biscuits
Decline more than
-5%
Frozen
Cook + Pour
Over Sauces
Macaroons
Seasonal
Whole/Slab
Cakes
Decline between -5
and 0%
Cereal Bars - Multi
Pack
Dry Pasta
Sweet Pastry
Morning Goods
Cake
Liquid
Slices/Cake Dairy Free
Bars
Altrntv
Growth between 0
and 5%
Cereal Bars Individual
Flour
Chilled
Desserts
USA Muffins
Rice/Corn
Snacks
Growth between 5
and 10%
Speciality Bread
Growth more than
10%
Cereal
Meal
Solutions
Crackers+Sav Rolls/Baps/B
oury Biscuits uns/Bagels
Excludes Other and Liquid Dairy Free Alternatives
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
30
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
GLUTEN FREE AISLE IS PURELY AMBIENT OFFERING
• Dual siting
• Wide variety but
cluttered
• Promotional activity
Tesco store, Surrey, UK
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
31
© Kantar Worldpanel
Gluten Free Ambient Bakery
© Kantar Worldpanel
GF BAKERY
AMBIENT BAKERY CATEGORY DEFINITION
Bread
Cake Slices/Bars
Macaroons
Morning Goods
Rolls/Baps/Buns/
Bagels
Rye Bread
Speciality Bread
USA Muffins
Whole/Slab Cake
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
33
© Kantar Worldpanel
Gluten Free Ambient Bakery
Total Free
From +24%
Total Gluten
Free +37%
£46m
+18%
Ambient Bakery
accounts for just
over a ¼
of all GF sales
Total
Ambient
Groceries
+4.2%
26
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
34
© Kantar Worldpanel
GF BAKERY
IN CONTRAST TO TOTAL MARKET - WARBURTONS DRIVE GROWTH. TESCO
FREEFROM HAS A NEGATIVE IMPACT TO GROWTH WHICH THEY WILL WANT
TO ADDRESS
All Others
Livwell
Contribution to YOY%
Dietary Specialities
Asda Free From
Tesco Freefrom
Ok Foods
M+S
Mrs Crimbles
Village Bakery
Biona
M+S Free From
Antoinette Savill
Lazy Day
Morrisons Free From
Wait Love Lfe Gluten Free
Sunstart
Sainsbury Freefrom
Yes You Can Gluten Free
Waitrose Lve Lf Free From
Genius
Warburtons Gluten Free
Only splits out top 20 ranges
35
© Kantar Worldpanel
GF BAKERY
WITHIN GF AMBIENT BAKERY, BREAD IS LARGEST; SPECIALITY BREAD,
CAKE SLICES & MORNING GOODS ARE ALL KEY.
USA MUFFINS PROVE THAT A NEW CATEGORY CAN QUICKLY BECOME A
KEY PART OF GF
3
3
7
3
6
7
Rye Bread
9
Macaroons
10
7
9
12
11
16
14
Whole/Slab Cakes
USA Muffins
Rolls/Baps/Buns/Bagels
Morning Goods
38
42
Cake Slices/Cake Bars
Speciality Bread
Bread
2012
2013
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
36
© Kantar Worldpanel
GF BAKERY
ONLY MUFFINS PERFORM AHEAD OF THE GF MARKET.
BREAD POSTS STRONG GROWTH, SIGNIFICANT, GIVEN THAT IT IS
THE LARGEST SECTOR
YOY Growth
USA Muffins
180
TOTAL GLUTEN FREE MARKET
37
Bread
29
AMBIENT BAKERY
18
Rye Bread
16
Morning Goods
15
Cake Slices/Cake Bars
9
Macaroons
4
Speciality Bread
2
Rolls/Baps/Buns/Bagels
-8
Whole/Slab Cakes
-9
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
37
© Kantar Worldpanel
GF BAKERY
THE MAJORITY OF BAKERY CATEGORIES ATTRACT MORE
SHOPPERS THIS YEAR
Penetration %
Purchase Frequency
Trip Packs
Price per Pack
Contribution
7m
4m
2m
0.5m
0.4m
0.1m
0.1m
AMBIENT BAKERY
Bread
USA Muffins
Morning Goods
Cake Slices/Cake Bars
Speciality Bread
Rye Bread
Macaroons
-0.3m
-0.3m
Whole/Slab Cakes
Rolls/Baps/Buns/Bagels
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
38
© Kantar Worldpanel
Total Market Trends GF could
capitalise on
© Kantar Worldpanel
TOTAL UK GROCERY
A GF ALTERNATIVE TO CRUMPETS, BAGELS AND BRIOCHE COULD
MEET DEMAND
Fastest growing ambient bakery and morning good sectors
Crumpets +12%
Bagels +7%
*Sectors in
the total
market and
£68M not GF
£123M
Brioche +25%
£59M
Crepes and Pancakes +7%
£48M
Sandwich Thins +100%
£27M
Pitta, Wraps and Naans +100%
£23M
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
40
© Kantar Worldpanel
TOTAL UK GROCERY
HEALTHY BISCUITS WOULD APPEAL TO HEALTHY GLUTEN FREE
BUYERS.
Healthier Biscuits £188M +28%
41
© Kantar Worldpanel
TOTAL UK GROCERY
READY MEAL OFFERING IS LIMITED FOR GLUTEN FREE, YET IT IS A
FAST GROWING LARGE SECTOR IN THE TOTAL MARKET
Total Market Chilled Ready Meals £2.4Bn +8%
Total Market Chilled Pizza and Bases £430M +6%
EXISTING GLUTEN FREE ALTERNATIVES GROW,
DEMONSTRATING A NEED
Gluten Free Meal Solutions and Pizza
Growth +100%
42
© Kantar Worldpanel
TOTAL UK GROCERY
READY MEALS CAPITALISE ON THE GROWING CONVENIENCE
FOCUS
Continued strong growth
in online and convenience
- target of opening 1 to 2
small stores per week
DRIVEN BY CONSUMER DEMAND
Yoy Growth %
Online to launch in H2
2013. Launch of London
M Local stores supported
by new distribution
centre
TOTAL UK GROCERY
TRADE GAIN HIGHER PRICES & LOWER RELIANCE ON
PROMOTIONS THROUGH TARGETING THE ‘FOR TONIGHT’ MISSION
„FOR TONIGHT‟ MISSIONS PAY A
„FOR TONIGHT‟ MISSIONS BUY
13% 25%
PRICE PREMIUM OVER „MAIN
SHOP‟
LESS ON DEAL THAN „MAIN SHOP‟
This is especially the case within Chilled Ready
Meals
TOTAL UK GROCERY
‘FOR TONIGHT ‘ IS LARGEST WITHIN CONVENIENCE
CHANNELS; GLUTEN FREE NEED A PRESENCE TO AVOID
MISSED SALES
7.4
9
25.6
27.1
19.8
16.9
34
38.5
Specific Journey
57.8
53
9
12.1
Main Shop
For Tonight
37.2
9.3
Replenishment
32.5
10.9
Tesco excl Conv Sainsbury's excl Tesco Express
& Online
Conv & Online
Sainsbury's
Local
Total MFP, 52 w/e Feb 17th 2013
Which sectors should we play in?
Chilled and Bread are the largest.
Morning Goods and Cake Bars are also important
to Bakery
Opportunity in Gluten Free Crumpets, Bagels,
Pizza, Healthier Biscuits and Ready Meals
© Kantar Worldpanel
Who are the key brands?
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
A GLUTEN FREE(GF) PRODUCT CAN BE A GF SUCCESS WITHOUT BEING A
SPECIALIST PRODUCT WITHIN THE GF AISLE
TOP SELLING GF SKU’S
£4.5m
-5%
£4.4m
7%
£2.8m
3%
£2.4m
103%
£3.8m
179%
£2.4m
£3.6m
14%
£3.2m
40%
£2.1m
£2.1m
+++%
New Smaller Size 535gm
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
BRANDS DOMINATE THE MARKET AND HAVE DONE FOR THE PAST 5 YEARS
Brands are even more
prominent in GF
Bakery:
74%
2013
2012
2011
31 30
2010
29
32
2009
Branded
38
62
68
71
Private Label
70 69
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
54
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
OPPORTUNITY IN BOTH BRANDS AND PRIVATE LABEL WHERE BOTH SEE
STRONG GROWTH
In GF Bakery – brands drive growth
+25% as PL only grows at 3%
Branded
50
44
40
33
30
YOY % Value Change
Private Label
29
20
16
10
4
0
20
18
-3
-10
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
55
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
BRANDS STILL ATTRACT MORE SHOPPERS, WHILST PRIVATE LABEL
RELIES ON EXISTING FOR GROWTH
Penetration %
This is
Purchase Frequency
a similar
story in GF
Bakery
Trip Packs
Price
per Pack
– attracting 230,000 more shoppers
Branded +33%
£30m
Private Label +44%
£17m
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
56
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
IN ALL BIG 4 RETAILERS, BRANDS ARE MOST IMPORTANT. TESCO RELY
MORE ON THEIR PRIVATE LABEL
Branded
69
TOTAL MARKET
31
65
Tesco
35
77
Asda
23
71
Sainsbury's
29
75
Morrisons
25
96
Co-Operative
4
90
Waitrose
Hard Discounters
Private Label
11
17
83
M&S 0
100
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
57
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
5 TOP SELLING GLUTEN FREE BRANDS
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
58
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
WARBURTONS IS THE ONLY TOP BRAND TO OUT PERFORM THE MARKET.
GENIUS REMAINS THE #1BRAND. DIETARY SPECIALITIES GROWTH
SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE MARKET
2. £10.6m
+103%
1. £12.3m
+22%
4. £7.1m
+17%
3. £9.7m
+5%
5. £4.8m
+25%
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
59
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
WARBURTONS ARE STILL ATTRACTING NEW SHOPPERS DESPITE THEIR
RANGE LAUNCHING OVER 2 YEARS AGO
Penetration %
-2,000
Purchase Frequency
-1,000
0
1,000
Trip Packs
2,000
Price per Pack
3,000
4,000
5,000
Contribution
Share
5.4m
5.9
2.2m
6.8
1m
3.9
1m
2.7
0.4m
5.4
6,000
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
60
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
5 TOP SELLING GLUTEN FREE PRIVATE LABEL RANGES
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
61
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
ALDI OUT PERFORM THE MARKET, ALONG WITH TESCO’S FREE FROM.
ASDA’S FREE FROM RANGE IS THE ONLY PL TO SEE A DECLINE IN SALES
2. £10.7m
+19%
1. £17.9m
+97%
3. £5.5m
+66%
4. £3.9m
-18%
5. £3.5m
+8%
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
62
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
ASDA WILL BE LOOKING TO ALTER THEIR RANGE TO ATTRACT
SHOPPERS INTO THEIR GLUTEN FREE RANGE LIKE ALL OTHER
RETAILERS
Penetration %
Purchase Frequency
-2,000
0
Trip Packs
2,000
4,000
Price per Pack
6,000
8,000
Contribution
Share
8.8m
9.9
2.2m
3.1
1.7m
5.9
0.3m
2.0
-0.8m
2.2
10,000
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
63
© Kantar Worldpanel
GF BAKERY
HOW MANY GLUTEN FREE BAKERY SECTORS DO THE TOP BRANDS
OPERATE IN?
1. Bread
2. Morning Goods
3. Rolls/Baps/Buns/Bagels
4. Speciality Bread
5. Whole/Slab Cake
1. Bread
2. Morning Goods
3. Rolls/Baps/Buns/Bagels
4. Speciality Bread
5. Whole/Slab Cake
1. Bread
2. Morning Goods
3. Rolls/Baps/Buns/Bagels
4. USA Muffins
1. Bread
1. Bread
2. Rolls/Baps/Buns/Bagels
3. Speciality Bread
1. Cake Slice/Cake Bars
1. Cake Slice/Cake Bars
2. Macaroons
3. USA Muffins
1. Bread
2. Rye Bread
Bakery brands worth more than £500k
52 w/e up to 17th March 2013
64
© KantarWorldpanel
Worldpanel
© Kantar
GF BAKERY
6 RANGES GENERATE 78% OF GF BAKERY VERSUS +20 RANGES IN
TOTAL AMBIENT BAKERY. MOST BRANDS OUTSIDE OF GENIUS AND
WARBURTONS LOSE SHARE
2012
23
Share Spend %
24
11
2013
9
6
5
5
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
Morrisons FF
Biona
Sunstart
Yes You Can Gluten Free
Waitrose Lve Lf Free From
Livwell (Livwell Ltd)
Asda Free From
Tesco Freefrom
Mrs Crimbles
M+S
Sainsbury Freefrom
Dietary Specialities
Warburtons Gluten Free
Genius
Top Selling GF
Bakery Ranges
52 w/e up to 17th March 2013
65
© KantarWorldpanel
Worldpanel
© Kantar
GF BAKERY
COMPETITIVE TO LAUNCH IN KEY BAKERY SECTORS
90% Bread is made up of Genius and Warburtons
90% Speciality Bread is Dietary Speciality
90% Morning Goods is Warburtons and Livwell
60% of Cake Bars/Slices is Mrs Crimbles and Sunstart
67
© KantarWorldpanel
Worldpanel
© Kantar
GF BAKERY
ALTHOUGH KEY BRANDS DOMINATE, NPD GENERATES MORE SPEND IN GF
BAKERY THAN TOTAL BAKERY
Gluten Free Market Spend £000‟s
NPD Market Share
180,002
139,866
Excluding NPDs
NPD
2,453
£40m
Gluten Free Bakery
22%
Total Ambient Bakery
15%
Bread
8%
Morning Goods
18%
Cakes & Pastries
20%
Including NPDs
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
68
© Kantar Worldpanel
Which SKUs generate the most sales?
Not just specific GF brands
Does Own Label dominate the market?
No, Brands dominate and attract more shoppers
Who is the branded competition?
Genius & Warburtons generate 50% of the Bakery market &
gain share at the expense of other brands
Which brands underperform?
–Dietary Specialities, Livwell and Mrs Crimbles all lose share,
putting their shelf space at risk
© Kantar Worldpanel
Where are the retailer
opportunities?
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
ASDA USED TO OUT PERFORM THE MARKET, SINCE TESCO
EXPANDED FREEFROM RANGE THEY LOSE OUT TO TESCO, HARD
DISCOUNTERS AND M&S
140
TOTAL MARKET
Tesco
Asda
Sainsbury's
Morrisons
Co-Operative
Waitrose
Hard Discounters
Marks & Spencer
120
YOY % Value Change
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
CAUTION! Lower M&S Buyer Numbers
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
71
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
ALTHOUGH M&S ONLY GENERATE 5% OF GLUTEN FREE, THEY ARE
THE THIRD BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO THE GROWTH OF THIS
MARKET
Penetration %
Purchase Frequency
Trip Packs
Price per Pack
Contribution £
20.1m
Tesco
8m
Sainsbury's
Marks & Spencer
4.2m
Asda
3.5m
Waitrose
3.1m
Hard Discounters
2.7m
Morrisons
2.5m
-100k
Co-Operative
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
72
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
TESCO GENERATES A THIRD OF SALES AND GROWS- CANNOT
IGNORE.
SAINSBURY’S WILL BE KEEN TO CLAW BACK LOST SHARE.
Tesco
Sainsbury's
Asda
Waitrose
All Others
Marks & Spencer
Hard Discounters
Co-Operative
100%
10
1
6
7
5
7
2
6
7
5
4
3
6
8
4
3
4
6
3
4
5
6
9
8
70%
9
11
12
12
11
60%
10
10
11
15
13
26
23
25
22
28
29
26
26
30
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
90%
80%
Value Share of Trade %
Morrisons
5
50%
40%
21
30%
20%
10%
0%
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
73
© Kantar Worldpanel
METHOD OF IDENTIFYING RETAILER OPPORTUNITIES
PRINCIPLE:
˃ A RETAILER‟S SHARE OF A CATEGORY SHOULD BE THE SAME AS THE
MARKET.
˃ EXAMPLE:
˃ ASDA HAS A 14.7% SHARE OF GROCERY AND A 12.7% SHARE IN GLUTEN
FREE. THEY SHOULD HAVE 14.7% SHARE IN GLUTEN FREE.
˃ CALCULATION FOR ASDA SIZE OF PRIZE: 14.7% OF GLUTEN FREE
MARKET £180M= £26.4M
˃ £26.4M MINUS WHAT THEY CURRENTLY MAKE- £22.8M
˃ ASDA STAND TO GAIN £3.6M IF THEY WERE TO GENERATE THEIR FAIR
SHARE OF GLUTEN FREE
74
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
OPPORTUNITY IN ASDA, MORRISONS AND CO-OP AS ALL HEAVILY
UNDER TRADE IN TOTAL GLUTEN FREE
27.2
Tesco
30
15
Sainsbury's
20.5
14.7
Asda
12.7
11.1
Morrisons
Co-Op
2.9
£3.6m
£6m
7.8
5.6
Total Grocery
£4.8m
4.3
Waitrose
10.6
M&S
3
Aldi
2.5
Gluten Free
5
3.7
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
75
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
OPPORTUNITY IN SAINSBURY’S, MORRISONS AND WAITROSE TO
GROW GLUTEN FREE FASTER. SAINSBURY’S AND WAITROSE
DEMOGRAPHICALLY SIMILAR TO GF SHOPPER- EASIER TO
CONVERT
Marks & Spencer
86
Hard Discounters
65
Tesco
59
TOTAL MARKET
37
Sainsbury's
28
Morrisons
22
Waitrose
20
Asda
Co-Operative
18
-1
£2.7m
£1.7m
£2.8m
£3.6m
£2.1m
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
76
© Kantar Worldpanel
Gluten Free Ambient Bakery
© Kantar Worldpanel
GF BAKERY
ASDA AND MORRISONS COULD GAIN £1.8M IF FAIR SHARE OF GF
AMBIENT BAKERY IS ACHIEVED. OPPORTUNITY WITHIN ALDI WHO
CURRENTLY DO NOT OPERATE IN THIS AREA
27.2
Tesco
32.2
15
Sainsbury's
18.5
14.7
Asda
12.2
11.1
Morrisons
£1.1m
£755K
9.5
5.6
5.9
Co-Op
4.3
Waitrose
GF Ambient
Bakery
12.4
3
M&S
Aldi
Total Grocery
6.4
2.5
0
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
78
© Kantar Worldpanel
GF BAKERY
IF SAINSBURY’S ASDA, M&S AND WAITROSE GREW IN LINE WITH
THE GF BAKERY MARKET THEY COULD GAIN AN ADDITIONAL £3.3M
Total Tesco
55
Total Morrisons
19
TOTAL MARKET
18
The Co-Operative
18
Total Sainsbury's
11
Total Asda
8
Total Marks & Spencer
Total Waitrose
-1
-10
£523K
£508K
£555K
£1.8M
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
79
© Kantar Worldpanel
GF BAKERY
Outperform Gluten Free Bakery
LONG TERM OPPORTUNITY
Undertrade
GF Bakery
Market
SHORT TERM OPPORTUNITY
Overtrade GF
Bakery Market
Underperform in Gluten Free Bakery
© Kantar Worldpanel
GF BAKERY
Value Share of Trade %
TESCO HEAVILY OVER TRADE IN BREADS AND MUFFINS BUT
UNDER TRADE IN ALL OTHER SECTORS. THE REST OF THE BIG 4
COULD EXPAND THEIR BREAD OFFERING
Tesco
Sainsbury's
Asda
Waitrose
All Others
Marks & Spencer
Hard Discounters
Co-Operative
6
6
5
7
8
11
10
13
12
12
8
4
9
6
10
12
8
13
6
12
16
21
19
31
30
32
9
7
12
12
18
5
12
5
10
19
20
11
22
5
14
9
23
13
4
22
23
19
15
35
60
34
22
18
16
12
17
41
Morrisons
19
46
45
7
7
24
14
CAUTION! Low Buyer Numbers
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
82
© Kantar Worldpanel
No.1 Retailer: 30% share
Drive the market: +60%
No. 1 OL Range
Tesco have seen phenomenal growth in Gluten Free and their Free
From range is now No. 1
Sufferers are an important group, spending £200k more on grocery
a year in Tesco than the average shopper
Tesco under trades in Branded Gluten Free, Morning Goods, Cake
Bars & Slices and Rolls, Baps and Buns. Should Tesco achieve
their fair share, they stand to gain £1.5M (£540, £604k and £359k)
Bagels, Crumpets, Brioche perform well in the market, could the
retailer stock a GF version to help gain their fair share?
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
© Kantar Worldpanel
No.2 Retailer: 20% share
Underperform: +28%
Turnaround GF Bread (-6%)
Whilst Sainsbury’s over trade in Gluten Free and have a similar
average shopper, the retailer under performs. If Sainsbury’s grew in
line with the market they would gain an additional £2.7M
Sufferers are an important group in Sainsbury’s spending £100k a
year more than their average grocery shopper
Sainsbury’s under trades in Free From Bread and also under
performs (-6% versus the markets 30% growth). Should they gain
their fair share this would be worth an additional £629K
Dietary Specialities Bread declines by 17% in the market, and
within Sainsbury’s, could the retailer replace some of their SKU’s
with a new GF Bakery product to help drive growth?
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
© Kantar Worldpanel
No.3 Retailer: 13% share
Under trade: 13% versus 15%
£3.6M Prize
Underperform: +18%
Asda under trades and under performs in Gluten Free Ambient
Bakery. The retailer could gain an additional £1.1M if it was to
generate the same share as it does in total Gluten Free
Asda have the opportunity to gain their fair share in Bread (£809k)
and Macaroons (£100k), Whole Slab Cakes (£133k) if they
generated 12% of these sectors as they do Total GF Bakery
Dietary Specialities Bread declines by 17% in the market, and
within Asda, could the retailer replace some of their SKU’s with a
new GF Bread product to help drive growth?
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
© Kantar Worldpanel
No.4 Retailer: 10.6% share
Over trade yet underperform:
+20% and -10% Bakery
Waitrose Under performs within Gluten Free in contrast to their fast
growth in Total Grocery. If the retailer grew in line with the market
they would have made an additional £2.8M
The Gluten Free shopper is very closely demographically aligned to
a Waitrose shopper, increasing the chance that Waitrose could
convert their shoppers to buy Gluten Free.
Waitrose declines in GF Ambient Bakery by 10% driven by Rolls,
Baps, Buns, Bagels, Speciality Bread and Cake Bars.
Waitrose also under trade in Specialty Bread and Cake Bars.
Should Waitrose gain their fair share of 12%, the retailer could gain
an additional £470K and £300k.
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
© Kantar Worldpanel
No.5 Retailer: 7.8% share
Under trade 8 % versus 11%
£6M Prize
Underperform: +22%
Morrisons Under Trades and under performs in Gluten Free and
stands to gain an additional £6M if it generated the same 11%
grocery share in Gluten Free.
The retailer currently struggles in the Total grocery market, and
would be keen to ensure that all growth areas are covered
Morrisons under trades in Total GF Ambient Bakery and
specifically Morning Goods. If the retailer gained their fair share in
Morning Goods (10%) this would be worth an additional £130k
33 brands are sold in Morning Goods in the Total GF Bakery
market, Morrisons stock only 4. Could Morrisons dedicate more
space to this area that is seeing growth of 15%?
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
© Kantar Worldpanel
Which retailers do I need to play in?
Tesco and Sainsbury‟s
Which retailers need help?
Asda and Morrisons under trade
Waitrose and Sainsbury‟s under perform
© Kantar Worldpanel
Which shoppers should
we go after?
© Kantar Worldpanel
WE IDENTIFIED THE GLUTEN FREE SHOPPERS THAT HAVE AN
ALLERGY/ INTOLERANCE AND COMPARED THEIR PURCHASING TO
NON SUFFERING GLUTEN FREE SHOPPERS
91
© Kantar Worldpanel
1M HH HAVE A GLUTEN ALERGY/ WHEAT INTOLERANCE, WHICH IS
ALMOST 4% OF GB HOUSEHOLDS
GLUTEN FREE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO WHEAT FREE, ALLOWING
WIDER TARGET AUDIENCE
Wheat
Intolerant
HHs
47%
32% 21%
Gluten
Allergic HHs
MAT Feb 13 – 1yr continuous panel
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
92
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
SUFFERERS ARE AFFLUENT AND MORE LIKELY TO BE SOUTHERN AN ATTRACTIVE GROUP TO APPEAL TO
Gluten and Wheat Allergic
˃ Majority 1-2 member households
˃ Majority don‟t have children in the household
˃ Over-index on ABC1
˃ More likely to be 35-54 year old
˃ Bias towards pre-families and older dependents
˃ Strong over-index on South
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
93
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
SUFFERERS GENERATE 51% OF GLUTEN FREE SPEND.
EQUAL SPLIT OF TARGETTING SUFFERERS AND NON SUFFERERS.
IMPORTANT FOR TRADE TO NOT LIMIT PRODUCTS TO GF AISLE
60
31
76
73
GF Ambient Bakery
50
Total Gluten Free
40
30
Wheat or Gluten
Intolerant HHs
20
10
0
8
7.7
Buyer %
51
50.8
Spend %
41
41.5
Vol %
MAT Feb 13 – 1yr continuous panel
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
© Kantar Worldpanel
GF BAKERY
ALTHOUGH SUFFERERS ONLY ACCOUNT FOR 31% OF BUYERS
THEY GENERATE 76% OF SALES AS THEY ARE MUCH HEAVIER
SHOPPERS
Shopper habits within Gluten Free Bread
GF Bread
Spend Volume Price
per Trip per trip per Kg
Frequency
Spend
Volume
Sufferer
13.2
£41
15.94Kg
£3.1
Non Sufferer
3.5
£11.19
4.34Kg
£3.17
1.204Kg £2.57
1.23Kg
£2.58
Per Household
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
NON-SUFFERERS DRIVE THE MAJORITY OF GROWTH-AN
IMPORTANT GROUP
Who contributes to Gluten Free growth?
Gluten &/or
Wheat Free =
+37%
Wheat or
Gluten
Intolerant
HHs
+34%
Non allergic
buying GF
+71%
Less than Gluten
&/or Wheat Free
Greater than
Gluten &/or Wheat
Free
0
MAT data
20
40
60
80
Expenditure YoY (%)
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
96
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
HEALTH IS IMPORTANT TO NON SUFFERERS AND A LIKELY DRIVER TO
PURCHASING GLUTEN FREE. A HEALTHY PRODUCT WILL APPEAL TO THIS
IMPORTANT GROUP
My diet is very important to
me
I try to lead a healthy
lifestyle
Total Responders
Recently I have become
more aware of whether the
foods I buy are good for me
Wheat or Gluten
Intolerant HHs
The nutrional labelling on
food & drink products has
an effect on what I buy
Non allergic buying
GF
I restrict how much sugary
food I eat
0
Health of Britain – 1-yr continuous
20
40
60
80
100
% of Households
agreeing
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
97
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
NON SUFFERERS BIGGEST OPPORTUNITY IS ENCOURAGING THE
PURCHASING OF MORE CATEGORIES. PRODUCTS SHOULDN’T BE
LIMITED TO GLUTEN FREE AISLE.
Total Responders
2.1
Wheat or Gluten
Intolerant HHs
7.2
Non Gluten or Wheat
1.6
0
2
4
6
8
Average number of GF sectors
bought per year
MAT Feb 13 – 1yr continuous panel
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
© Kantar Worldpanel
GF BAKERY
HARDER FOR GF TO COMPETE WITH MAIN STREAM PRODUCTS AS
CURRENTLY AT A PREMIUM
Grocery Av Price
GF Av Price
Price Diff
Bread
86p
£2.58
£1.72
Morning Goods
79p
£2.04
£1.25
Speciality Bread
79p
£1.85
£1.06
Rolls / Baps / Buns / Bagels 97p
£1.83
86p
Whole / Slab Cakes
£1.93
£2.66
73p
Cake Slices / Cake Bars
£1.05
£1.72
67p
USA Muffins
£1.08
£1.68
60p
Rye Bread
£1.17
£1.46
29p
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
99
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
SECTORS LESS RELIANT ON SUFFERERS HAVE MAIN STORE
SITING
89
Main Meal Pizza
87
USA Muffins
81
Speciality Bread
80
Bread
79
Cereals
77
Whole/ / Slab Cakes
Wheat or Gluten
Intolerant HHs
76
Total Ambient Bakery
73
Morning Goods
68
Rolls / Baps / Buns / Bagels
Non Gluten or
Wheat
65
Cake Slices / Bars
63
Sweet Biscuits
44
Macaroons
43
Rice / Corn snacks
38
Rye Bread
36
Cereal Bars
17
Meal Solutions
0
20
40
60
80
100
SPEND %
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
102
© Kantar Worldpanel
GF BAKERY
ASDA MUCH MORE POPULAR WITH NON SUFFERERS THAN SUFFERERS
SO IT WOULD PAY OFF FOR ASDA TO TARGET THIS GROUP
SPEND %
Total Hard
Discounters
100
90
4.8
2.1
4.3
3.3
80
11.1
11.2
20.7
19.8
70
60
50
13.3
18.5
40
30
20
42.3
36.8
Total Waitrose
The CoOperative
Total Morrisons
Total
Sainsbury's
10
Total Asda
0
Total Tesco
Wheat or Gluten
Intolerant HHs
Non Gluten or
Wheat allergic
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
105
© Kantar Worldpanel
KEY TO ATTRACTING NON SUFFERERS WILL BE AVAILABILITY OF
GLUTEN FREE IN THE WHOLE STORE
ONLY 2% SHOPPERS VISIT MORE THAN HALF THE STORE
IMPORTANT FOR GLUTEN FREE TO NOT BE LIMITED TO THE FREE
FROM AISLE
GLUTEN FREE CHILLED READY MEALS, PIZZA, HEALTHY BISCUITS
WILL HELP BRANCH PRODUCTS OUTSIDE OF GF AISLE
106
© Kantar Worldpanel
…
HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT ALMOST 80%
AMBIENT BAKERY SPEND IS GENERATED BY SUFFERERS
Wheat or Gluten
Intolerant HHs
75.8
TOTAL MARKET
78.2
Total Tesco
Non Gluten or
Wheat allergic
69.3
Total Asda
76.6
Total Sainsbury's
75.7
Total Morrisons
67.2
The Co-Operative
77.5
Total Waitrose
Total Hard
Discounters
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
SPEND %
Chart Footnote
107
© Kantar Worldpanel
KEY TO ATTRACTING SUFFERERS WILL BE EXPANDING THE
SELECTION
REQUIREMENT FOR GLUTEN FREE ALTERNATIVES TO SECTORS IN
DEMAND SUCH AS MORNING GOODS
HEALTH IS IMPORTANT TO SUFFERERS SO A FOCUS ON LOWER
CALORIE PRODUCTS COULD HELP TO GROW FURTHER
REMEMBER TRUST AND QUALITY IS KEY TO THIS GROUP
108
© Kantar Worldpanel
Which shoppers should we target?
Both Sufferers and Non Sufferers through a „by
the way, we‟re gluten free‟ approach.
© Kantar Worldpanel
How big is Gluten Free and how does it perform?
£180m +37%
115
© Kantar Worldpanel
Which sectors are best to play in?
Bagels, Crumpets,
Speciality Bread,
Ready Meals & Healthy
Biscuits
116
© Kantar Worldpanel
Who are the key brands?
Warburtons and Genius
dominate Bakery
Opportunities in both
brands and PL elsewhere
117
© Kantar Worldpanel
Where are the retailer opportunities?
Short term – Tesco and JS
Long term – Morrisons
and Asda
118
© Kantar Worldpanel
Which shoppers should we go after?
Target both sufferers and
non sufferers through
main store location
119
© Kantar Worldpanel
…and by the way, it’s Gluten Free
120
© Kantar Worldpanel
Appendix- slides to add
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
AN INFLUX OF SHOPPERS DRIVES OVER HALF OF GLUTEN FREE GROWTH
52 w/e 19 52 w/e 17 Change
Feb 12
Feb 13
(Actual)
Measure
Spend (£000)
Packs (000s)
Penetration (%)
Frequency
Spend per Buyer (£)
Volume per Buyer (Packs)
Spend per Trip (£)
Volume per Trip (Packs)
Price per Pack (£)
131,766
83,223
35.23
5.41
14.27
9.01
2.64
1.67
1.58
180,023
108,890
41.49
5.84
16.43
9.94
2.81
1.70
1.65
+48,257
+25,667
+6.26
+0.43
+2.16
+0.92
+0.17
+0.04
+0.07
Change
(%)
Value up 36.6% worth £48.3m
+36.6%
+30.8%
+17.8%
+8.0%
+15.1%
+10.3%
+6.6%
+2.1%
+4.4%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Spend (£000)
£180m (+36.6%)
+£48.3m
Packs (000s)
Price per Pack (£)
108.9m (+30.8%)
+£41.8m
£1.65 (+4.4%)
+£6,428k
Volume per Buyer
Penetration (%)
9.9 (+10.3%)
+£14.7m
41.5% (+17.8%)
+£27.2m
Frequency
Volume per Trip (Packs)
5.8 trips (+8%)
+£11.6m
1.7 (+2.1%)
+£3,079k
* Penetration contribution
includes population growth of 0.8%
123
© Kantar Worldpanel
GF BAKERY
GLUTEN FREE BAKERY – BRANDS
52 w/e 19 52 w/e 17 Change
Feb 12
Feb 13
(Actual)
Measure
Spend (£000)
Packs (000s)
Penetration (%)
Frequency
Spend per Buyer (£)
Volume per Buyer (Packs)
Spend per Trip (£)
Volume per Trip (Packs)
Price per Pack (£)
27,451
13,215
5.20
7.25
20.15
9.70
2.78
1.34
2.08
34,276
16,136
6.02
7.51
21.58
10.16
2.87
1.35
2.12
+6,825
+2,921
+0.82
+0.25
+1.43
+0.46
+0.10
+0.02
+0.05
Change
(%)
Value up 24.9% worth £6,825k
+24.9%
+22.1%
+15.7%
+3.5%
+7.1%
+4.7%
+3.5%
+1.2%
+2.3%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Spend (£000)
£34.3m (+24.9%)
+£6,825k
Packs (000s)
Price per Pack (£)
16.1m (+22.1%)
+£6,170k
£2.12 (+2.3%)
+£655k
Volume per Buyer
Penetration (%)
10.2 (+4.7%)
+£1359k
6% (+15.7%)
+£4,811k
Frequency
Volume per Trip (Packs)
7.5 trips (+3.5%)
+£1,015k
1.4 (+1.2%)
+£344k
* Penetration contribution
includes population growth of 0.8%
124
© Kantar Worldpanel
GF BAKERY
GLUTEN FREE BAKERY – PRIVATE LABEL
52 w/e 19 52 w/e 17 Change
Feb 12
Feb 13
(Actual)
Measure
Spend (£000)
Packs (000s)
Penetration (%)
Frequency
Spend per Buyer (£)
Volume per Buyer (Packs)
Spend per Trip (£)
Volume per Trip (Packs)
Price per Pack (£)
11,952
6,071
3.31
5.55
13.76
6.99
2.48
1.26
1.97
12,292
6,347
3.40
5.38
13.70
7.07
2.55
1.32
1.94
+340
+276
+0.08
-0.18
-0.06
+0.09
+0.07
+0.06
-0.03
Change
(%)
Value up 2.8% worth £340k
+2.8%
+4.5%
+2.5%
-3.2%
-0.4%
+1.2%
+2.8%
+4.5%
-1.6%
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
Spend (£000)
£12.3m (+2.8%)
+£340k
Packs (000s)
Price per Pack (£)
6347k (+4.5%)
+£538k
£1.94 (-1.6%)
-£198k
Volume per Buyer
Penetration (%)
7.1 (+1.2%)
+£152k
3.4% (+2.5%)
+£386k
Frequency
Volume per Trip (Packs)
5.4 trips (-3.2%)
-£382k
1.3 (+4.5%)
+£535k
* Penetration contribution
includes population growth of 0.8%
125
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
OCADO CONTINUE TO GROW AT TOTAL GROCERY BUT GLUTEN
FREE SALES SEE A MASSIVE UPLIFT FROM LAST YEAR
Total Grocery
508,238
52
w/e
20
Mar
11
52
w/e
17
Apr
11
+10%
+14%
Gluten Free
1,845
52
w/e
20
Feb
11
637,458
577,453
52
w/e
15
May
11
52
52
w/e w/e
12 10 Jul
Jun 11
11
3,092
2,005
52
w/e
07
Aug
11
52
w/e
04
Sep
11
52
w/e
02
Oct
11
52
w/e
30
Oct
11
52
w/e
27
Nov
11
52
w/e
25
Dec
11
52
w/e
22
Jan
12
+9%
52
w/e
19
Feb
12
52
w/e
18
Mar
12
+54%
52
w/e
15
Apr
12
52
w/e
13
May
12
52
52
w/e w/e
10 08 Jul
Jun 12
12
52
w/e
05
Aug
12
52
w/e
02
Sep
12
52
w/e
30
Sep
12
52
w/e
28
Oct
12
52
w/e
25
Nov
12
52
w/e
23
Dec
12
52
w/e
20
Jan
13
52
w/e
17
Feb
13
52 w/e up to 17th March 2013
126
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
Gluten Free Mixes
1600
TOTAL GF MIXES
1400
Bread Mixes
1200
913
1000
800
Breadcrumbs
Cake Mixes
600
Packet Stuffing
400
Pancake Mix
200
Pastry Mixes
0
52 w/e up to 17th March 2013
127
© Kantar Worldpanel
GLUTEN FREE
Gluten Free Flour
4000
3500
TOTAL GF FLOUR
3000
2500
Bread Flour
2000
1500
Other Plain Flour
1000
500
Self-Raising Flour
0
52 w/e up to 17th March 2013
128
© Kantar Worldpanel
GF BAKERY
ASDA AND MORRISONS COULD GAIN £1.8M IF FAIR SHARE OF GF
AMBIENT BAKERY IS ACHIEVED
25.9
Tesco
32.2
14.7
Sainsbury's
14.2
Asda
12.2
9.5
8.4
Co-Op
£1.2M
5.9
4.1
Waitrose
£1.1m
£1.1m
11.9
Morrisons
12.4
GF Ambient
Bakery
4.7
M&S
Aldi
Total Ambient
18.5
6.4
3
0
52 w/e up to 17th February 2013
129
© Kantar Worldpanel
Gluten Free Bakery – Gains/Loss
Total Tesco
Total Asda
Total Sainsbury's
Total Morrisons
The Co-Operative
Total Switching
Total Iceland
Shoppers Held
Total Waitrose
Ocado Internet
Shoppers Won
Aldi
Lidl
Category Arrivals
Total Marks & Spencer
All Others
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Switching based on Spend (£000s) to year ending 17-Feb-13
130
© Kantar Worldpanel
Asda‟s Switching losses in GF Bakery
Switching Spend (£000s) to Total Asda - year ending 17 Feb 2013
Total Morrisons
Total Waitrose
The Co-Operative
Total Marks & Spencer
Total Iceland
Net switching - Spend (£000s)
Aldi
Lidl
Ocado Internet
All Others
Total Sainsbury's
Total Tesco
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
131
© Kantar Worldpanel
Switching Flow Summary
Total Tesco
Total Sainsbury's
Total Iceland
Total Morrisons
Total Marks &
Spencer
Total Waitrose
Total Asda
Aldi
The Co-Operative
Lidl
All Others
Ocado Internet
132
© Kantar Worldpanel