UK Foodservice Trends &
Implications for Suppliers
Remember….
UK accounts
for
43% of Irish
food & drink exports
in 2009
Economic Overview
Gross Domestic
Product
Average Earnings
UK GDP declined by 5.2% in Q3 09 vs. YA
Growth rates in average earnings, excluding
bonuses, has dropped to 1.9% (JJA 09)
Unemployment rate rose to 7.9% (JJA 09)
Unemployment Rate
Inflation
Consumer
Confidence
Consumer Price Index dropped to 1.1% in
September 09, which is below the target
inflation growth rate of 2.0%
Consumer confidence index improved from -16 in
August 09 to -10 in September 09
Total OOH Sales declined
sourcing to a decline in
Traffic
SALES
-2.5%
YE Sep 08: £46.4 Billion
YE Sep 09: £45.3 Billion
TRAFFIC
-2.8%
YE Sep 08: 12.5 Billion
YE Sep 09: 12.1 Billion
AVE IND SPEND
+0.3%
YE Sep 08: £3.72
YE Sep 09: £3.73
Av. Number of Items
+2.6%
Price/Item
-2.2%
Total OOH: Components of Spending- YE Sep 09 vs YA
QSR gained Traffic share
whereas the Workplace
and Travel & Leisure lost
share
1.7
6.1
6.1
1.6
6
6.1
7.4
7.2
14.2
13.7
22.2
21.7
42.4
43.8
YE Sep 08
YE Sep 09
Commercial
Vending
College/Uni
Pubs
FSR inc Cafe
Travel &
Leisure
Workplace
QSR
Traffic Distribution by channel
Domino‘s, Mc‘Donalds
& KFC the winners in
downturn
Components of Sale – YE Sep 09 vs. YA
Total QSR
Sales
+11.0%
Sales
+1.5%
Traffic
+0.4%
Ind Spend
+1.2%
Traffic
+6.7%
Ind Spend
+4.1%
Sales
+9.6%
Traffic
-2.0%
Ind Spend
+11.8%
Sales
+10.7%
Traffic
+5.0%
Ind Spend
+5.4%
Total
Sales
+3.9%
Sales
-0.2%
Traffic
-2.6%
Ind Spend
+2.5%
Traffic
+4.3%
Ind Spend
-0.5%
Sales
+11.2%
Sales
-2.0%
Traffic
+2.4%
Ind Spend
-4.3%
Traffic
+7.2%
Ind Spend
+3.7%
Menurama - Price
• The average dish price (across all courses) is £6.16, a 4.1%
year-on-year increase and a 1.3% increase over the preceding 6
months. This is counterbalanced by a continued increase in the
availability of promotional menu meal deals
• A 3 course restaurant meal (without alcohol) = £19.93
– 33.7% more than it would for a pub meal (£14.91)
• Between July‘08-’09 the average pub starter price in
– Pubs 10.6%
– Restaurants 2.2% increase
– Hotels 9% increase
Average Dish Price –
All Channels
All figures are in £
except percentages
Jul
‘05
Jan
‘06
Jul
‘06
Jan
‘07
Jul
‘07
Jan
‘08
Jul
‘08
Jan
‘09
Jul
‘09
Percentage
Change Over
Past Year
Starter
4.03
4.08
4.27
4.72
4.82
4.74
4.70
4.88
5.24
11.5%
Main Course
7.70
7.86
7.93
8.28
8.49
8.59
8.73
8.86
8.95
1.5%
Dessert
3.43
3.45
3.55
3.75
3.81
3.89
3.97
4.05
4.48
9.8%
Snack
3.91
3.90
4.16
4.17
4.29
4.33
4.32
4.52
4.58
3.7%
Average Total Menu
5.41
5.45
5.72
5.79
5.93
5.91
5.92
6.08
6.16
2.4%
Note: Data includes all food category types (snacks, side orders, specials,
children's meals, main course, desserts etc) but not drinks
Menurama – Menu
Structure
•
Main course breakdown:
•
Main course (excl burgers and pizzas) chicken breast is most popular
followed by fish & chips, rump steak, combination dishes and sausages &
mash
•
Seafood : Salmon, Prawn, Tuna, Scampi & Haddock
•
Fewer changes in range and price to children’s menus compared with adult
menus
•
Desserts: ice cream, cheesecake, sundae, brownie & chocolate cake
•
Weight decreases are especially evident amongst fillet, rump & sirloin
steaks over the past year
1. Meat
2. Poultry
3. Fish/Seafood
Menu Structure cont
• Cuisine type: 1. ‘Generic’
2. British / American - pubs & hotels
3. Italian & American - restaurants
• The frequency of dishes marked as containing nuts, wheat or
gluten free are considerably lower than those marked as
suitable for vegetarians both as a true reflection of dish
properties but also due to the relative newness of these
concepts in the dining arena
OPPORTUNITY
Promotional Activity
• Continuation of heavy brand promotion amongst the
large chain operators such as Wetherspoon, TRG, Pizza
Express etc
http://www.toptable.com/en-gb/venues/offers/?l=7
• But where will this madness end???
Innovation
• Menu innovation is still alive and well - 45.2% of Menurama
dishes were new
• Imaginative new dishes include Scream’s Quorn & Chianti
lasagne, Old Orleans’ Catfish bites and Chef & Brewer’s
Shropshire Blue And Quince Tart
• Other forms of innovation….packaging, presentation etc
OPPORTUNITY
Back to
the
drawing board
There are opportunities – you just have to
have the right proposition
Top 20 Main Courses
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Back
Beefburger / Cheeseburger
Pizza
Chicken Breast
Fish & Chips
Rump Steak
Chicken Burger
Combo
Sausage & Mash
Sirloin Steak
Risotto
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
Roast Chicken
Sunday Lunch
Beef Lasagne
Platter
Rib Eye Steak
Chicken Pasta
Steak & Ale Pie
Scampi & Chips
Tomato Pasta
Pork Ribs
New Dishes: By
Course
100%
90%
80%
Main Course
Side Order
70%
Dessert
Starter
60%
Snack
Light Meal
50%
Children's Meal (All courses)
Meal Deal (Adults)
40%
Breakfast
Sharing Dish
30%
Meal Deal (Children)
Nibbles
20%
10%
0%
New Dishes
Existing Dishes
New Dishes: By
Outlet Type
100%
90%
Pub Restaurant
80%
Hotel
Restaurant
Bar Restaurant
70%
Pasta House
Restaurant & Bar
60%
Budget Hotel
Pizza Restaurant
50%
American Diner
Bar & Grill
40%
Café Bar
Fish Restaurant
30%
Road House
Tapas Bar
Steakhouse
20%
Other
10%
0%
New Dishes
Other = Irish Bar, Vodka Bar, In-Store Restaurant, Noodle Bar
Existing Dishes
New Main Course
Dishes By Protein:
Red & White Meat
100%
90%
Beef
80%
Fish & Seafood
Chicken
Pork
70%
Lamb
Unspecified
60%
Ham
Bacon
50%
Mixed
Duck
40%
Gammon
Veal
30%
Chorizo
Pancetta
Guineafowl
20%
Other = Bison,
Ostrich, Pigeon,
Pepperoni,
Prosciutto,
Salami, Turkey,
Venison, Wild
Boar
Other
10%
0%
New Dishes
Existing Dishes