1
Go Forth and Multiply: The Effect of Religion on Family Size
By
Livio Di Matteo
Department of Economics
Lakehead University
Thunder Bay, Ontario
P7B 5E1
Paper Prepared for the Meetings of the Canadian Economic Association, June 6-8, University of British Columbia, Vancouver,
Canada
DRAFT: NOT FOR QUOTATION
2
ABSTRACT
Go Forth and Multiply: The Effect of Religion on Family Size
The influence of religion on family size in late nineteenth/early twentieth century Ontario is examined using a set
of 7,156 census-linked probated decedents. Religion can directly shape values and attitudes towards fertility as well as
provide social contacts and networks that encourage child bearing. As well, religion can indirectly affect wealth and
fertility because of differences towards fertility, childrearing and education. A simple model of children in an old age
security framework is presented, which is then translated into a reduced form econometric model with a comprehensive
set of variables including religious affiliation. While empirical studies using historical Canadian micro-data have found
only a weak relationship between religious affiliation and the number of children, these results find statistically
significant relationships. However, they do not fall into the “liberal-conservative” divide of other North American studies
suggesting that the effect of religion on family size and fertility is considerably more complex.
3
Go Forth and Multiply: The Effect of Religion on Family Size
By
Livio Di Matteo1
Introduction
There is a growing literature demonstrating the importance of religion on economic behaviour and performance.
In a comprehensive survey of the economics of religion, Laurence Iannaccone (1998) classifies work on the economics of
religion into three areas: 1) the analysis of religious behaviour from an economic perspective 2) the economic
consequences of religion and 3) the use of theological literature to criticize economics and policies.
This paper is in the tradition of the second area and examines the influence of religion on fertility and by
extension, family size in late nineteenth/early twentieth century Ontario using a set of 7,156 census-linked probated
decedents. Most economic models of fertility and family size divide into those viewing children as investment goods and
those that view them as consumer goods with little attention paid to the influence of other factors such as culture and
religion. This paper presents a simple model of children in an old age security framework as inputs into old age support
via bequests. This is then translated into an econometric model with a comprehensive set of confounding variables
including religious affiliation. While empirical studies using historical Canadian micro-data have found a weak
1
The assistance of the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council is gratefully acknowledged.
4
relationship between religious affiliation and the number of children, this paper finds statistically significant
relationships.
The classic thesis linking religion and economic performance is of course the Weber Thesis2 or Protestant Ethic
Thesis which argues that the Protestant Reformation and the Protestant work ethic triggered the advent of modern
capitalism and resulted in economic growth and development in Protestant societies outpacing Catholic ones.3 As a
revolt against Catholic tradition, Protestantism emphasized free thought and rationality as an approach to life and
supposedly helped foster wealth accumulation, profit seeking and economic growth.4
Adam Smith’s work also provides a perspective on religion’s economic impact as a device whereby individuals
enhance the value of their human capital and ultimately their wealth and income.5 Smith viewed moral reputation as
having a capital value and religious affiliation distributed information about the “moral character” of an individual that
helped assess the potential riskiness of transactions. By providing “valuable, reliable information concerning the level of
risk attached to dealings with particular individuals, religious sects both benefit their members in a tangible way and
also improve the efficiency of the allocation of human resources.”6 The character of an individual could also be reflected
in other lifestyle decisions such as the decision to raise a family and the number of children. Provided such differences
exist, they should be reflected in differences in the number of children and their relationship to economic variables
across religious groupings.
See Engerman (2000).
Weber (1930).
4
A substantial literature seeking to verify or refute the Weber Thesis has arisen over time.See Tawney (1926), Samuelsson (1993), Delacroix (1995), Landes
(1998), Baskerville (2001), Di Matteo (2007).
5
Anderson (1988).
6
Anderson (1988: 1072).
2
3
5
Keister (2003) argues that religion can affect economic behaviour through direct and indirect effects. Religion
can directly shape values and attitudes towards wealth accumulation as well as provide social contacts and networks
that facilitate accumulation. As well, religion can indirectly affect wealth because of differences generated towards
fertility, childrearing and education all of which can affect wealth. For modern Canada, Tomes (1985, 1983) and Meng
and Sentence (1984) examine the influence of religion on earnings and the rate of return to human capital using
Canadian Census data and find that human capital returns to Protestants exceeded those of Catholics and Jewish
males earned more than other religious-ethnic groups. Again, one might expect that these differences could also affect
family formation and fertility.
In the case of more direct relationships between religious behaviour and fertility, Leasure (1982) uses the share
of church seats held by various denominations in a geographic area to show that religious liberalization was a factor in
reducing fertility in nineteenth century America. Liberal denominations such as Presbyterians and Quakers held more
progressive thoughts with respect to family size as opposed to conservative or hierarchical religions such as Baptists,
and were associated with fertility decline.7 Conservative and hierarchical faiths were more likely to suppress ideas of
individual empowerment and stressed contraception and fertility limitation as tampering with God’s “be fruitful-andmultiply mandate.”8 Hacker (1999) using 1880 and 1850 IPUMS data finds that parents in nineteenth century America
with a lower proportion of biblically named children also tended to have smaller families. The tendency to provide
biblical names to children is interpreted as evidence of stricter adherence to religious teachings on fertility.
7
According to Haan (2005) conservative faiths include Anglicans, Baptists, Episcopalians, Lutherans, Mennonites, Methodists and Roman Catholics. Liberal
faiths include Congregationalists, Presbyterians, Quakers and Unitarians.
8
Haan (2005: 380).
6
Fertility and Family Size in Economic History: Theoretical Approaches and Empirical Results
The micro-economic approach to household behaviour, fertility and family size was pioneered by Gary Becker
and yields demand functions for children as a function of price and income variables.9 The vast literature on the
economic determinants of fertility subdivides into two broad approaches – one which views children as consumption
goods and the other as investment or capital goods with the latter approach placing children in the role of old age
support providers.10
In traditional societies, the investment motive dominated with dependence on children for old-age security a
common feature of developing countries in both the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Children in colonial North
America enabled land to yield a productive return and this economic dependence on family labour provided parents
with the "incentive to employ the promise of an inheritance as a control device to extract labour from their children and
to ensure that their children would care for them in old age."11
The old-age security motive for fertility is commonly found in economies with underdeveloped capital markets,
uncertainty about the accumulation of assets necessary for old age, absence or inefficiency of private or public old-age
income security programs, confidence in the loyalty of children to their parents and the absence of well developed
labour markets for women and children.12 These were all features of the 18th and early 19th century colonial North
American economy.
See Becker (1960, 1965); Becker and Lewis (1973).
See Nerlove et. Al (1987); Fulop (1977); Shultz (1974).
11
Ransom and Sutch (1986a, 18). See also Ransom and Sutch (1986b).
9
10
12
Nugent (1985, 75-97).
7
Sundstrom and David also observed that rational parents have an incentive to raise large families because a
large number of children competing for attention strengthens bargaining with respect to any one of them.13 The
inheritance aimed to provide offspring with their start in life and accords with the assumption in Easterlin’s work that a
farmer "seeks to provide a start in life for each of his offspring at least as good as that which his father gave to him."14
The probated decedents of nineteenth century Ontario manifested many of these characteristics of the bequest motive.
Wills commonly specified the services that children were to provide for the surviving spouse and attached penalties if
the deceased's wishes were not complied with.15
There is a small empirical literature on the determinants of fertility and family size in both English and French
Canada. Henripin (1972) presents the classic account with estimates of macro fertility decline in Canada during the
19th and 20th centuries. McInnis (1991) uses aggregate data to examine the nineteenth century Ontario fertility decline
and concludes the scarcity of paid employment outside the home made extended spinsterhood unappealing and led to
the acceptance of limiting marital fertility, but does not discuss the impact of religion.
13
Sundstrom and David (1988, 166-97).
14
Easterlin (1976, 65).
For example, Phillip Gage (WC #3369, 1892), a farmer, bequeathed all of his real and personal estate to his widow Mary Ann for the maintenance of
herself and the children. However, he explicitly stated that: "...no child shall be entitled to such maintenance who refuses to reside with his or her mother on
the Homestead farm and render such service as he or she may be capable of in the work of the house and cultivation of the land." Payment of an inheritance
after the death of his widow stipulated that the children have complied with the widow's interests. (The term in brackets is a reference to the probated
decedent in the probate records. It is to be read as Wentworth County Will number 1753, 1892.)
15
8
Denton and George (1970, 1973) apply cross-sectional regression techniques to a 1871 census sample of 1,100
families in Wentworth county and found demographic and urban-rural factors to be significant determinants of family
size. However, occupation, religion, birthplace and ethnic origin were found to be relatively weak determinants.
More recently, Haan (2005) uses a 20 percent sample of the 1881 Census of Canada and regresses fertility on
age, geographic, employment, birthplace and religious variables and finds that the addition of religious variables did not
contribute much to the overall fit of the models though many individual co-efficients were significant. He therefore
concludes that: “the centrality of religion in the fertility transition should be called into question.”16
A Simple Model of Family Size Determination
Utility maximizing individuals are assumed to live for two periods and their utility is a function of
consumption across two periods.17 Utility is represented by the function U=U(C1, C2) where C1 and C2 are first and
second period consumption. An endowment is available in the first period only and therefore second period
consumption occurs by transferring resources across time. In the case of a world with a bequest motive, we assume
that provision for second period consumption requires an agent sacrifice current consumption to acquire a wealth
bequest to be passed on to offspring in return for old age support. Accumulated wealth becomes an input into the
"production" of children who then provide second period consumption. An increase in total wealth results in more
children and therefore greater second period consumption as depicted in Figure I.
16
Haan (2005: 405).
The model that follows builds on work done by Neher (1971) and Sundstrom and David (1988). Sundstrom and David develop a model to illustrate the
impact of expanding labour market opportunities on the value of children. They in turn rely on work by Neher who examined the impact of the introduction of
a financial asset on old age security and fertility.
17
9
The diagram in Figure I consists of four quadrants. In the first quadrant are the individual economic agent's
preferences represented by indifference curves and the intertemporal consumption opportunities frontier (ICOF).
The ICOF transforms consumption across time periods. Utility is maximized where the ICOF is tangent to the
highest attainable indifference curves.
The ICOF is derived via quadrants II-IV. Point X is the endowment point. If C1= X, then there is no surplus
above first period consumption to devote to wealth accumulation for bequest purposes. When first period
consumption is less than the endowment, resources are released which are saved as wealth rather than consumed.
We assume a linear relationship between C1 and the accumulated wealth, which implies constant marginal costs of
wealth accumulation.
In the third quadrant, the acquired bequest becomes an input into the "child production function". If we
assume that the goal is to provide each child with an equal target bequest, then as the accumulated bequest rises,
so should the number of children. However, because of fertility limitations, the number of children rises at a
decreasing rate in response to the amount of wealth and eventually reaches a biological maximum.
In the fourth quadrant, second period consumption or old age support is depicted as a positive function of the
number of children. However, second period consumption also rises at a decreasing rate as there are assumed to be
diminishing returns to the number of children. This could be due to the temptation on the part of children to 'free
ride' and neglect their obligations to their parents when there are a large number of siblings to share the task. We
assume that diminishing returns offsets any tendency for increased number of children to compete for their parents
affections in order to obtain a larger bequest.
10
The interaction between the bequest function, the child production function and the old age support function
traces out the ICOF in the first quadrant. The maximization of utility subject to this constraint yields the optimal
consumption levels C1* and C2*, as well as the size of the optimal bequest B* and the optimal number of children
N*. Under the pure bequest motive, amount XC1* is not consumed in the first period and used to acquire bequest
B* resulting in N* children and ultimately amount C2* of second period consumption.
The number of children N is therefore a function of the amount of wealth and any shift factors that influence
the relationship between wealth and children. Among these shift factors are religious affiliation. Religious affiiation
can affect the relationship between foregone consumption and wealth, the relationship between wealth and child
production and finally, that between the number of children and the provision of old age support.
C2
11
IV
I
Eo
C2*
a
N
X
C1*
N*
C1
B*
II
III
B
Figure 1
A Model of Intertemporal Consumption with Children and Bequests
12
The Data
The micro-data consists of 7,156 census-linked probated decedents from all counties and districts of Ontario,
Canada for the years 1892 (3,515) and 1902 (3,641).18 The data set is constructed from the probate records of the
county surrogate courts and the 1891 and 1901 Census of Canada.19 Probate is an institutional process transferring
property from the dead to the living making the inventory and valuation of property very important. The executor of the
estate (or administrator in intestate cases) conducted the inventory,20 which legally needed to be conducted in response
to a request by a legatee or creditor, though in practice, it was brought in voluntarily (Howell 1880: 325-326).21 The
inventory provided wealth estimates grouped into sixteen categories22 allowing for separate estimates of real estate,
financial assets and personal property. Moreover, the records list beneficiaries, which provide an estimate of living
children.
Analysis of the data in this paper is restricted to those variables that are common to both the 1892 and 1902 data sets. For example, father and mother’s
birthplace was only available in the 1891 Census. Some variables were not part of the 1892 data collection project but were included in the data collection for
1902. These variables include year of immigration to Canada as well as mother tongue and an assortment of employment related variables.
19
Sources for the data set were: (1) Public Archives of Ontario, Surrogate Court Wills, 1892, 1902 and (2) Public Archives of Canada, Census of Canada,
1891,1901 Manuscripts.
20
Intestates are decedents without a will.
21
According to Howell’s (1880: 325-326) Probate, Administration and Guardianship “The inventory should contain a statement of all the goods, chattels,
wares and merchandize, as well moveable as not moveable, which were of the person deceased at the time of his death within the jurisdiction of the court. A
proper inventory should enumerate every item of which the personal estate consisted, and should specify the value of each particular. But unless by order of
court, or in obedience to a citation, an inventory does not set forth the goods and chattels in detail.” It should be noted that real estate was usually recorded net
of any mortgages outstanding so that the wealth figure used in this paper is a measure of net wealth.
22
The inventory categories were:(1) Household goods and furniture, (2) Farm implements, (3) Stock in trade, (4) Horses, (5) Cattle, (6) Sheep and Swine, (7)
Book Debts and Promissory Notes, (8) Moneys secured by mortgage, (9) Life Insurance, (10) Bank stocks and other shares, (11) Securities, (12) Cash on hand,
(13) Cash in bank (14) Farm produce, (15) Real estate, (16) Other personal property.
18
13
The number of children requires further discussion given its importance in testing the impact of religion on
family size. The variable was constructed by combining results from both the probate and the census records to ensure
that as many children as possible were accounted for. The census listed only children still living within the household
whereas the probate records generally listed all the children who were beneficiaries of the estate. Generally, the probate
estimate was larger than the census estimate except in cases where the children were very young in which case the
census offered the more complete listing. The average number of children rises with age with a slowdown in the rate of
increase after age 50 and that occurs in this data set suggesting that most children are being accounted for as the
population ages. For example, between the age 20-29 and 50-59 categories, the average number of children per male
decedent rises from 0.44 to 3.40 and then reaches 3.69 in the age 70-79 age category.
Potential limitations to the use of probate records as a measure of wealth should be acknowledged.23 First,
probated decedents are of higher socio-economic status and may not represent the general population but the problem
of selection bias is limited since this paper focuses on the probated decedents themselves.24 A related issue is that
probate wealth data may be affected by whether the individuals died unexpectedly or had been ill a long time and run
down their assets. Unfortunately, cause of death information was not available in the probate records and other sources
were not as reliable.25
23
Discussions of Ontario probate records as historical sources of data are contained in Elliott (1985: 125-32) and Osborne (1980: 235-47). See also Siddiq and Gwyn (1991:
103-117).
24
An attempt can be made to adjust the data for potential biases using the estate multiplier technique. See Siddiq and Gwyn (1991: 103-17), and Di Matteo and George (1992:
453-483).
25
A noted scholar of Ontario’s civil registration of vital events statistics writes that: “For years after 1869 Ontario’s civil registration of vital events was unsatisfactory.
Although its legislative provisions surpassed Quebec’s, Ontario was less successful in obtaining registrations...the registrar-general estimated that registrations for 1870 captured
only a fifth of the province’s deaths...” By 1893, reported death rates for municipalities ranged from 26 to 2 per thousand. See Emery (1993: 32-34).
14
Second, the presence of estate taxes may provide incentive for an executor or administrator to underestimate
inventoried wealth but in Ontario the presence of estate taxes provided little reason to underestimate the value of the
estate for almost all decedents. There were no succession duties in Ontario until July 1, 1892 when the Succession
Duty Act (Statutes of Ontario, 55 Vict., Cap. 6, 1892) came into effect, and even then the Act allowed for numerous
exemptions.26
A final concern is the extent of inter vivos transfers, meaning that an unknown portion of wealth may have been
transferred during life and is unaccounted for by the probate records. Generally, the property liable to duty was quite
comprehensive and after 1896, it included property vested jointly with interest to survivor. The Succession Duty Act
applied even to property “voluntarily transferred by deed, grant or gift made in contemplation of the death of the grantor
or bargainor, or made or intended to take effect, in possession or enjoyment after such death...”27 if they were made in
the 12 months preceding death. Moreover, after 1896, donatio mortis causa , that is, goods and possessions delivered in
apprehension of death, were also clearly defined as property liable to duty.28 Such transfers are considered a problem if
estate taxes present an obstacle to terminal wealth transmission but the evidence for Ontario suggests that they should
not be given the exemptions.
26
The Succession Duty Act did not apply: (1) To any estate the value of which, after payment of all debts and expenses of administration, does not exceed $10,000; nor (2) To
property given, devised or bequeathed for religious, charitable or educational purposes; nor (3) To property passing under a will, intestacy or otherwise, to or for the use of the
father, mother, husband, wife, child, grandchild, daughter-in-law, or son-in-law of the deceased, where the aggregate value of the property of the deceased does not exceed
$100,000 in value. Revisions to the Act in 1897 (Revised Statutes of Ontario (1897), Cap. 24) kept the $100,000 exemption value but it was later reduced to $50,000 in 1907 (5
Edw.VII, c.6, s.6) which is well after the period of these two cross-sections.
27
A report on the Succession Duty Act in the Welland Tribune (April 1, 1892: 2) asserted that: “The act provides for evasion by transfers before death, although the fear of
revival makes such attempts very rare.”
28
There is a drop in average other personal property in Ontario between 1892 and 1902 that is quite large but can be attributed to outliers. For example, in the four Niagara
region counties in 1892, Wentworth County reports the two largest amounts of other personal property $66,500 by Thomas Myles, a coal merchant, and $23,522 by Jacob
Zingsheim, a furniture manufacturer. These two individuals represent almost half the average value of other personal property in 1892. The maximum amount in 1902 in these
four counties is $15,000 reported by one Thomas Bates, a brewer.
15
The construction of the data set proceeded by recording onto standardized data collection forms those estates
probated in the years 1892 and 1902. Individuals were then linked back to census returns in order to obtain additional
information.29 Those individuals who died prior to the taking of the census or were non-Ontario residents with property
in one of the counties were omitted from the census tracing procedure.30 For 1892, a total of 4,925 estates were taken
down of which 4,236 were traceable and 3,515 successfully traced for a success rate of 83 percent. For 1902, a total of
4,969 estates were taken down of which 4,233 were traceable and 3,64631 successfully traced for a success rate of 86
percent. A list of variables is provided in Table 1.
Table 2 and Figures 2-3 overview key data characteristics and the relationship between religious affiliation and
wealth. Figure 1 paints a picture of the regional distribution of probated decedents by religious affiliation while Figure 2
illustrates the distribution of birthplace by religion. Roman Catholics are especially concentrated in Eastern Ontario,
Anglicans in the Golden Horseshoe region, Presbyterians in Huronia and Baptists in Western Ontario. Figure 2
presents further evidence on religious affiliation and place of birth. Anglicans were mainly English or Canadian born
while Roman Catholics were mainly Irish or Canadian born. Presbyterians were the most likely to be born in Scotland
while the Baptists and the Methodists were the most likely to be Canadian born.
29
For a full account of data collection, see Di Matteo (1997).
Some of these omitted probated decedents were residents of other provinces of Canada, the United States and Britain but with property in Ontario. Other omitted individuals
were Ontario residents who died before the taking of the census (in April) and therefore would not have been recorded in the Census schedule of the living. There often was a
lag between the date of death and the probating of the estate. For example, in some intestate cases, time was expended searching for a will. As well, there were sometimes
complicated intestate estates with incomplete administrations. For example, an individual could die intestate and the surviving spouse apply for administration of the estate and
in turn die leaving the administration incomplete. If there were no surviving children or none resident in the immediate vicinity, it could take many months to apply for probate
and settle the estate.
31
Five of these individuals did not have age recorded and therefore for analysis, the final number for 1902 is actually 3641.
30
16
In terms of composition of religious affiliation, in 1892 approximately 20 percent of the decedents are Anglican,
11 percent are Roman Catholic, 27 percent Presbyterian, 5 percent Baptist, 29 percent Methodist and 8 percent All
Other Religions. The All Other Religions category comprises an assortment of mainly Protestant groups such as
Lutherans, Mennonites, Congregationalists and Salvation Army. By 1902, the proportion of Anglicans had dropped to
18 percent, Roman Catholics had risen to 12 percent while Presbyterians, Baptists, Methodists and All Other Religions
remained approximately the same.
The religious affiliation of the probated decedents for 1892 and 1902 broadly matches that of the province as a
whole according to the Census. However, there are relatively more Presbyterians and Anglicans and substantially fewer
Roman Catholics in the data set compared to the province as a whole while the proportion of Baptists and Methodists in
the data set parallels the Census closely. This higher proportion of Anglicans and Presbyterians and the lower
proportion of Roman Catholics in the data set may result from the greater tendency of individuals of higher socialeconomic status to probate and the possibility that the census-linkage process may also have favoured those of higher
socio-economic status. It also may reflect the age distribution of the population particularly in 1902 where Anglicans
and Presbyterians had higher average ages at death at 62.2 and 62.3 respectively while Roman Catholics had the lowest
at 59.
The highest average wealth in 1892 is reported by Anglicans, followed by Presbyterians, All Other Religions,
Methodists, Baptists and finally Roman Catholics. Between 1892 and 1902, there is a drop in average wealth for
Anglicans, Presbyterians, Baptists and Methodists but not for Roman Catholics. The drop for Anglicans is particularly
steep and in 1902 their average wealth is actually below that for Roman Catholics. Indeed, in 1902, Roman Catholics
have the highest average wealth. This drop in wealth was also noted for Toronto by Darroch (1983a,b) using assessment
17
roll data, who attributes it to inflation in real estate values during the 1880s that was ended by the severe recession of
1891 which hit the Toronto-Hamilton area quite hard. Interestingly enough, Anglicans were particularly concentrated
in the Golden Horseshoe region, which may explain why their wealth was impacted particularly hard by the recession of
the 1890s.32
With respect to other characteristics, Roman Catholics were the least likely to be literate while Baptists were the
most likely to be Canadian Born. It should also be noted that between 1892 and 1902, the proportion of male probated
decedents declined for all groups except Baptists who saw an increase. The declining proportion of male decedents over
time reflects greater property ownership by women in the wake of legal changes of the 19th century. The Married
Women's Real Estate Act, 1873, allowed married women to dispose of real estate as if unmarried while The Married
Woman's Property Act, 1884, enabled a women to dispose of any real or personal property as if unmarried.33
All religious groups report a decline in the average number of children per probated decedent between 1892 and
1902. In 1892, the greatest number of children was reported by decedents of Other Religions at 3.7, which include
Quakers, Congregationalists and other assorted Protestant sects. This figure is followed by Methodists at 3.5,
Presbyterians at 3.4, Roman Catholics at 3.3, Baptists at 3.2 and finally Anglicans at 3.0. For 1902, this pattern
changes with Other Religions reporting 3.4 children, Roman Catholics next at 3.0, then Methodists at 2.9, Baptists at
2.8, Presbyterians at 2.7 at Anglicans at 2.6. Based on the conservative-liberal ranking of religious denominations used
32
Given the high rate of 19th century inequality and the dispersion that characterizes wealth data, these results may be affected by the presence of outliers, so median
wealth figures are also presented in Table 2. In 1892, the highest median wealth was for Anglicans followed by Presbyterians, Methodists, Other Religions, Baptists and finally
Roman Catholics. Between 1892 and 1902, all religions report a decline in median wealth with the exception of Presbyterians who see a slight increase and become the highest
median wealth holders followed by Anglicans. This result suggests that the high average wealth of Roman Catholics in 1902 was driven by the presence of extreme observations.
33
See also Inwood & Ingram (2000), Baskerville (1999) and Chambers (1997).
18
in other studies, these results do not necessarily conform to the expected result. While the more liberal Presbyterians
do report a lower average number of children, in both years, the more conservative Anglicans are at the bottom. At the
same time, Roman Catholics, Baptists and Methodists do tend to have larger numbers of children. Resolution of the
possible confounding relationships between children, religion, wealth and other variables requires a regression
approach.
Model and Results
A determinants approach is a route to modeling family size whereby variables are categorized into choice and
non-choice variables with the remaining variation a function of random forces.34 Choice variables are characteristics an
individual can vary like occupation, place of residence, marital status, children and to a lesser extent, literacy and
religion.35 Non-choice variables are unalterable individual characteristics such as age, gender and birthplace. When
religion is used as an independent variable in family size determinant regressions, we are examining whether more
liberal religious denominations – in this case defined as Presbyterians and Other Religions – have lower family sizes
and fertility than more conservative and hierarchical denominations which in this paper are defined as Baptists,
Anglicans, Methodists and Roman Catholics.
34
A similar approach is outlined for the determinants of wealth by Pope, “Households,” pp. 152-55
It should be acknowledged that in 19th century Canada, religious affiliation was likely a “path dependent” process that was based on the religion of parents. As
a result, the religion variable as an independent variable may not only capture the effect of religion on traits and characteristics that influence on economic
activity or different social/cultural networks but also parental endowments of belief systems and networks. According to John Porter (1968: 511) , “religion
tends to be ‘inherited’ much as sex and eye colour are inherited and carried around throughout life, and it becomes a determining factor in education, health,
marriage, occupation and so forth.”
35
19
Equation one below sets the general form of the regression with the number of children (C) as a function of a
vector of socio-economic variables Zi that include dummy variables for religious affiliation (See Table 1).
(1) C = f(Z1….Zi)
Anglicans are the omitted variable for comparison purposes because of the tendency for Anglicans to be viewed as the
establishment Church in 19th century Ontario. Essentially, the hypothesis to be tested is whether religious affiliation
variables are statistically significant determinants of family size.
The regression estimation technique is ordinary least squares and two models are estimated: (1) A simple OLS
regression of the number of children on a set of variables including wealth and religious affiliation. (2) A fitted wealth
OLS approach in which wealth is regressed on a set of variables and the fitted wealth values are then used in the child
regression.36 The fitted wealth approach is utilized because of the potential for bi-directional causality between wealth
and children as well as the fact that similar variables can be the determinants of both wealth and children. As well, the
child regressions are run only for probated decedents who at the time of death were married, widows or widowers thus
omitting 877 single decedents. The results for both approaches are presented in Table 3 and the wealth regression
used in the fitted wealth estimates reported in Appendix 1.
The results in Table 3, using the instrumental variable estimation technique, suggest that after controlling for
age, wealth, gender, birthplace, farmer as occupation, urbanization, marital status, literacy, and time, there was an
impact of religious affiliation on the number of children. Relative to Anglicans, Roman Catholics had 0.77 more
36
Essentially a two-stage least squares approach.
20
children, Presbyterians had 0.41 more, Baptists had 0.69 more, Methodists had 0.67 more and all other religions had
0.87 more. These results suggest that after controlling for a wide variety of factors, Anglicans reported the smallest
families while Roman Catholics and Other Religions (Congregationalists, Quakers, Lutherans, etc…) had the largest
families. After Anglicans, the next smallest families were by Presbyterians, then Methodists and finally Baptists. While
there are statistically significant differences in family size according to religious denominations, they do not fall into the
“liberal-conservative” divide of other North American studies.
However, effects on the number of children also come from the variables dealing with time, farmer occupational
status, urbanization and literacy. For example, being literate is associated with 0.33 fewer children versus being nonliterate, while decedents who were farmers had 1.48 more children than non-farmers. Relative to 1892, decedents in
1902 had 0.19 fewer children. Meanwhile, urban dwellers had 1.12 fewer children than non-urban dwellers.
One interesting difference in the fitted estimates as opposed to the basic OLS result is that male probated
decedents reported 1.32 fewer children than female probated decedents in the fitted wealth result whereas there is no
significant difference in the basic OLS estimate. Why male decedents might report smaller families than female ones in
the fitted regression is a puzzling question. There may be life cycle effects that are being better captured by the fitted
regression. For example, a greater proportion of males relative to females are married whereas a larger proportion of
females reported being widowed as opposed to males being widowers.37 The data reveals that the average age of married
men was 61.1 years while that of married women was 52.9 years and the average age of widowers was 73.4 years while
that of widows was 68.4 years. The gender variable may be capturing the effects of a younger married male population
37
Approximately 19% of males in this data set were widowers and 70% were married. Approximately 53% of females in this data set were widows and 31%
were married.
21
relative to an older female widowed population. However, females in general died at a younger average age than males
in this data set making it possible that some other influence may be generating this result.
Conclusion
This paper examines the influence of religion on family size in late nineteenth/early twentieth century Ontario
using a set of 7,156 census-linked probated decedents. Religion can affect economic behaviour through direct and
indirect effects. For example, religion can directly shape values and attitudes towards fertility as well as provide social
contacts and networks that encourage child bearing. Also, religion can indirectly affect wealth because of differences
towards fertility, childrearing and education. While empirical studies using historical Canadian micro-data have found
only a weak relationship between religious affiliation and the number of children, this paper finds statistically
significant relationships. However, they do not fall into the “liberal-conservative” divide of other North American studies
suggesting other factors may be interacting with religion to generate an effect on fertility. Each religious group may
indeed have had its own unique internal dynamic with respect to views on family size and fertility.
22
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25
Figure 2 Distribution of Ontario Decedents (1892 and 1902) by Religion and Region
0.60
0.50
0.40
NORTHERN
WESTERN
HURONIA
EASTERN
GOLDEN
0.30
0.20
0.10
S
N
G
IO
D
O
RE
LI
ET
H
ER
TH
BA
PT
IS
IS
T
T
N
IA
ER
BY
T
PR
ES
M
O
RO
M
AN
AN
CA
G
TH
LI
O
CA
LI
C
N
0.00
26
Figure 3 Birthplace Distribution by Religion for Ontario Decedents (1892 and 1902)
0.70
0.60
0.50
ENGLISH
IRISH
SCOT
USA
OTHBRTH
CANBORN
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
N
S
T
T
ER
M
ET
RE
L
H
IG
O
D
IO
IS
PT
IS
BA
N
IA
YT
ER
ES
B
PR
O
TH
RO
M
AN
AN
CA
TH
G
LI
CA
O
LI
C
N
0.00
27
Table 1: Dataset Variables
VARIABLE
WEALTH
AGE
SEX
TEST
URBa
ENGLISH
IRISH
SCOT
USA
CANBORN
OTHBRTH
OCC1b
OCC2F
OCC2NF
OCC3
OCC4
OCC5
OCC6
MARRIED
WIDOWER
WIDOW
SINGLE
PRESB
CATHOLIC
BAPTIST
METH
ANGLICAN
OTHREL
LITERATE
CHILDN
YEAR1902
NORTHERN
WESTERNc
EASTERN
HURONIA
GOLDEN
DEFINITION
Wealth ($)
Age at death in years.
1 if male, 0 otherwise
1 if testate, 0 otherwise
1 if urban resident, 0 otherwise.
1 if born in England or Wales, 0 otherwise.
1 if born in Ireland, 0 otherwise.
1 if born in Scotland, 0 otherwise.
1 if born in United States, 0 otherwise.
1 if born in Canada (Ont, Que or Maritimes), 0 otherwise.
1 if born in any other place, 0 otherwise.
1 if Katz Category I, 0 otherwise
1 if Katz Category II and a farmer, 0 otherwise
1 if Katz Category II and a non-farmer, 0 otherwise
1 if Katz Category III, 0 otherwise
1 if Katz Category IV, 0 otherwise
1 if Katz Category V, 0 otherwise
1 if Katz Category VI, 0 otherwise
1 if married, 0 otherwise
1 if widower, 0 otherwise
1 if widow, 0 otherwise
1 if single, 0 otherwise
1 if Presbyterian, 0 otherwise
1 if Roman Catholic, 0 otherwise
1 if Baptist, 0 otherwise
1 if Methodist, 0 otherwise
1 if Church of England, 0 otherwise
1 if any other religion, 0 otherwise
1 if decedent could read and write, 0 otherwise
Number of children reported.
1 if year of probate is1902, 0 otherwise.
1 if Northern Ontario, 0 otherwise
1 if Western Ontario, 0 otherwise
1 if Eastern Ontario, 0 otherwsie
1 if Huronia, 0 otherwise.
1 if Golden Horseshoe, 0 otherwise.
28
NOTES TO TABLE 1
a
Urban is defined as a resident of a city, town or village.
b
These are socio-economic occupational status categories with OCC1 as the highest, OCC5 as the lowest and OCC6 as an unclassifiable (See Katz, 1975, 343-348).
Category OCC1, for example contains lawyers, merchants, doctors, etc...Categories OCC2F includes farmers while OCC2NF contains minor government officials and small
businessmen. Category OCC3 includes skilled tradesmen such as blacksmiths while OCC4 contains barbers and restaurant workers. Category OCC5 is mainly unskilled labour
while OCC6 is unclassifiable containing mainly women.
c
The counties in each regional dummy are as follows: NORTHERN- Renfrew, Districts of Muskoka and Parry Sound, Sudbury-Nipissing, Algoma, Manitoulin, Kenora and
Rainy River and Thunder Bay; GOLDEN HORSESHOE- Wentworth, Lincoln, Welland, Peel, Halton, York; WESTERN- Haldimand, Norfolk, Elgin, Kent, Essex, Lambton, Middlesex,
Oxford, Brant; HURONIA-Waterloo, Perth, Huron, Wellington, Bruce, Grey, Simcoe, Dufferin; EASTERN-Ontario, Victoria and Haliburton, Durham and Northumberland,
Peterborough, Hastings, Prince Edward Lennox and Addington, Frontenac, Leeds-Grenville, Dundas-Glengarry-Stormont, Prescott and Russell, Carleton, Lanark.
29
TABLE 2: SELECTED STATISTICS BY RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION
ANGLICAN
ROMAN
PRESBYTERIAN
BAPTIST
METHODIST
CATHOLIC
OTHER
RELIGION
1902 Census Distribution (%)
1892 Census Distribution (%)
16.9
18.3
17.9
16.9
21.9
21.4
5.3
5.0
30.5
30.9
7.5
7.4
1902 Decedent Distribution (%)
1892 Decedent Distribution (%)
18.2
20.2
12.1
10.8
27.3
27.1
5.4
4.9
28.6
28.9
8.4
8.2
Mean Wealth ($):
1902
1892
6629
10810
7311
5554
6896
7770
4373
5660
5342
5891
7093
6900
Median Wealth ($):
1902
1892
2821
3200
2193
2400
3180
3150
2402
2937
2752
3033
2389
3000
Average Real Estate ($): 1902
1892
2508
4881
2526
3060
2634
3338
2252
2898
2471
3087
2877
2639
Median Real Estate ($):
1902
1892
900
1500
1000
1200
1000
1500
1000
1500
1000
1200
675
1000
Average Financial
Assets ($):
1902
1892*
3516
4770
4256
1658
3372
3276
1662
1752
2380
2123
2941
3541
Median Financial
Assets ($):
1902
1892*
500
479
328
115
704
450
200
403
469
277
614
405
Percent Reporting
Real Estate Ownership
1902
1892
70
74
72
75
71
74
76
75
69
75
65
75
Percent of Wealth
Held as Real Estate:
1902
1892
42
47
48
54
41
47
51
52
44
50
39
47
30
TABLE 2: CONTINUED
ANGLICAN
ROMAN
PRESBYTERIAN
BAPTIST
METHODIST
CATHOLIC
OTHER
RELIGION
Average Age:
1902
1892
62.2
60.5
59.0
61.4
62.3
61.8
61.8
60.6
61.5
60.5
63.4
63.0
Percent Male:
1902
1892
67.8
74.0
70.8
76.5
70.1
77.4
71.4
68.0
70.5
78.2
74.1
79.1
Percent Literate:
1902
1892
94.9
91.5
81.0
77.8
96.3
93.2
97.4
91.3
94.3
90.9
88.9
93.4
Average Number
Of Children:
1902
1892
2.6
3.0
3.0
3.3
2.7
3.4
2.8
3.2
2.9
3.5
3.4
3.7
Percent Canadian Born
1902
1892
41.3
33.6
55.7
36.2
46.1
31.0
66.8
52.3
61.0
47.0
42.2
39.4
* Excluding Prince Edward County 1892 which only recorded real estate and total assets.
31
TABLE 3: REGRESSION RESULTS
DEPENDENT VARIABLE: CHILDN
Fitted Wealth
OLS
Regression
Variables
AGE
agesq
URB
SEX
canborn
occ2f
married
catholic
presb
baptist
meth
othrel
literate
yr1902
wealthhat
_cons
Coef.
Basic OLS
REGRESSION
T-Statistics
0.08679
-0.00078
-1.12690
-1.32331
-0.60240
1.48490
0.05291
0.77001
0.40573
0.69079
0.66543
0.86735
-0.32554
-0.18620
0.00018
0.93428
Number of obs
F( 15, 6259)
R-squared
Adj R-squared
6.06
-6.59
-13.42
-12.61
-8.22
15.66
0.67
6.46
4.32
4.40
7.07
6.76
-2.79
-2.92
25.68
2.05
6275
91.87
0.1804
0.1785
TStatistics
Coef.
AGE
agesq
URB
SEX
canborn
occ2f
married
catholic
presb
baptist
meth
othrel
literate
yr1902
wealth
_cons
0.15699
-0.00118
-0.46196
0.04158
-0.21737
0.86797
-0.02459
0.50022
0.27224
0.16266
0.20532
0.58987
0.21847
-0.42824
0.00001
-1.76490
Number of obs
F( 15, 6259)
R-squared
Adj R-squared
10.65
-9.67
-5.52
0.44
-2.89
9.02
-0.30
4.01
2.77
1.00
2.12
4.40
1.81
-6.46
4.26
-3.79
6275
44.67
0.0967
0.0945
32
APPENDIX 1
WEALTH REGRESSION FOR GENERATING
FITTED WEALTH ESTIMATE (WEALTHHAT)
DEPENDENT VARIABLE: WEALTH
Estimation
Technique:
OLS
VARIABLES
Coef.
T-statistic
AGE
agesq
URB
SEX
CHILDN
english
irish
scot
usa
othbrth
occ1
occ3
occ4
occ5
occ6
occ2nf
married
catholic
presb
baptist
meth
othrel
246.9711
-1.8171
3439.092
1651.328
574.6054
-1393.243
-1731.985
-1493.08
992.4122
-2821.057
11419.62
-1641.521
-4246.661
-4333.027
-2386.898
1575.19
-455.935
-805.4971
-702.0591
-2628.809
-2598.302
-867.0859
2.21
-1.89
4.54
0.42
4.99
-1.51
-1.88
-1.34
0.55
-1.65
10.14
-1.31
-2.01
-2.1
-0.61
1.22
-0.67
-0.7
-0.71
-1.75
-2.94
-0.66
VARIABLES
TEST
literate
northern
western
huronia
eastern
yr1902
_cons
Coef.
T-statistic
3785.449
2405.84
-3922.71
-4153.463
-4903.461
-3351.611
-943.9071
-4739.626
Number of obs
F( 29, 7126)
R-squared
Adj R-squared
5.29
2.17
-2.13
-4.69
-5.4
-3.81
-1.57
-0.88
7156
15.46
0.0592
0.0554
33