Carbon in US Energy Production
Peter Wilcoxen
Departments of Economics and Public Administration
The Maxwell School, Syracuse University
SURE 2009
November 5, 2009
http://wilcoxen.maxwell.insightworks.com/pages/talks/
1
Fuel use and energy units
• National fuel use is measured in quads
▫ 1 quad = 1 quadrillion BTU (10^15)
• How large is a quad?
▫ Coal “unit trains”: 100 cars, about 1 mile long
▫ 1 train fuels a 300 MW power plant for about 3 days
▫ 1 quad = 4,500 unit trains
• Annual energy consumption
▫ World: 400 quads
▫ US: 100 quads
2
5
California load curve
• Independent System Operator (ISO)
▫ Operates part of the electrical grid
• Data for January 21st
• Demand (red curve):
▫ Min at 3:30 am, 21 GW
▫ Max at 6:30 pm, 32.5 GW
▫ Max is 55% higher
• Capacity (green curve):
▫ 34.5–41 GW
7
Oil
12% of capacity
50 GWyr
Natural Gas
22% of capacity
290 GWyr
7 GWyr
Electric Sector Capacity Utilization
2006
84 GWyr
Coal
72% of capacity
84 GWyr
511 GWyr
224 GWyr
Nuclear
90% of capacity
10 GWyr
Renewables
34% of capacity
77 GWyr
90 GWyr
39 GWyr
955 GWyr
444 GWyr
Legend
Electricity, GWyr [GWyr]
Additional Capacity, GWyr
[GWyr]
Summary of generation mix
Fuel
Capacity
(GW)
Generation
(GWyr)
Fossil Fuel Use
(Quads)
Carbon
(Mmt C)
Oil
57
7
0.6
13
Gas
374
84
6.4
93
Coal
310
224
20.5
532
Fossil total 741
315
27.5
638
Nuclear
100
90
‐‐
‐‐
Renewables
116
39
‐‐
‐‐
Total
958
444
27.5
638
9
Leading options for replacing fossil
• Integrated gasification combined cycle coal (IGCC) ▫ With carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)
• Combined cycle gas (CC)
▫ With CCS
• Nuclear
• Renewables
▫
▫
▫
▫
Biomass
Hydro
Wind
Solar thermal, photovoltaic 10
Cost of building new power plants
Technology
Capital cost per GW of capacity
Technology
Capital cost per kW of capacity
Coal
$2.1 B
Adv Nuclear
$3.3 B
IGCC
$2.4 B
Biomass
$3.8 B
IGCC with CCS
$3.5 B
Hydro
$2.2 B
Nat Gas CC
$0.9 B
Onshore Wind
$1.9 B
CC with CCS
$1.9 B
Solar Thermal
$5.0 B
Solar/PV
$6.0 B
11
0
50
Natural Gas Capacity in GW
100
150
200
250
300
350
Recent expansion of gas capacity
1990
1995
2000
year
2005
2010
12
Replacing fossil completely?
• Need about 550 GW total
▫ 330 GW baseload
▫ 220 GW peaking
• Fossil with CCS
▫ 410 GW of IGCC CCS coal (80% utilization) = $1.4 T
▫ 220 GW of CC CCS gas = $420 B
▫ Total = $1.8T
• Intermittent renewables
▫ 1300 GW of wind (25% utilization) = $2.5 T
▫ 220 GW of CC CCS gas = $420 B
▫ Total = $2.9 T
13
Transmission grid
• Can we get power where it’s needed?
• Especially important for wind and solar
▫ Best locations are far from cities
▫ Need geographic dispersion
14
More grid capacity needed for wind
Variation in wholesale electricity prices due to grid congestion
From “2006 Midwest ISO‐PJW Coordinated System Plan (CSP),” December 2006. 15
Very important implication
• Would be less expensive if demand were lower
• Need to reduce fuel use on the demand side
16
US Residential Energy Consumption
2001
Values in quadrillion BTU
unless otherwise noted
4.6
0.5
Oil
1.1
6.3
Total
Consumption
Gas
0.6
Space Heating
50% (32% C)
93 mmt C
Air Conditioning
6% (11% C)
32 mmt C
5
0.6
163 mmt C
4.8
1.3
Renewables
0.4
10.2
0.4
1.7
Water Heating
16% (13% C)
38 mmt C
Ovens & Ranges
0.7 7% (7% C)
3.9
Electricity
Refrigerators
0.5 5% (9% C)
3.9
Lighting
0.3 3% (6% C)
0.4
Legend
290 mmt C
27 mmt C
17 mmt C
127 mmt C
2.4
Electricity [Quad]
Natural Gas [Quad]
19 mmt C
2.8
Appliances
27% (44% C)
Oil [Quad]
Renewables [Quad]
Carbon [mmt C]
Clothes Dryers
0.2 2% (4% C)
11 mmt C
Freezers
0.1 1% (2% C)
7 mmt C
Color TVs
1% (2% C)
6 mmt C
Carbon from Electricty [mmt C]
0.1
Data source: Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2001
0.8
Other
8% (14% C)
40 mmt C
17
US Commercial Building Energy Consumption
1999
Values in quadrillion BTU
unless otherwise noted
Space Heating
34% (17% C)
1.7
0.2
Oil
0.2
2.2
Total
Consumption
Gas
1
33 mmt C
1.9
1
Air Conditioning
19% (27% C)
52 mmt C
91 mmt C
2
0.3
5.3
0.3
Water Heating
6% (3% C)
6 mmt C
191 mmt C
3.1
Electricity
3.1
Cooking
5% (3%)
6 mmt C
Refrigeration
0.3 5% (7% C)
14 mmt C
0.3
0.2
Legend
1.9
Electricity [Quad]
Natural Gas [Quad]
2.1
Other
41% (52% C)
Lighting
0.7 13% (19% C)
100 mmt C
37 mmt C
Oil [Quad]
Carbon [mmt C]
Carbon from Electricty [mmt C]
Office Equipment
0.6 10% (15% C)
28 mmt C
0.3
Other
7% (8% C)
15 mmt C
Data source: Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2001
18
Miscellaneous
Furniture
Transportation Equipment
Electrical Equipment
Computers, Electronics
Machinery
Fabricated Metals
Primary Metals
Nonmetallic Minerals
Plastics, Rubber
Chemicals
Petroleum Products
Printing
Paper
Wood Products
Leather
Apparel
Textile Product Mills
Textile Mills
Beverage, Tobacco
Food
Quadrillion BTU
US Manufacturing Energy Consumption, 2002
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
19
Historical perspective?
• Does fuel use rise inexorably no matter what?
• What do we know from history about fuel use?
20
0
50
Quadrillion BTU
100
150
200
Exponential growth after the war (3.4%)
1940
1960
Year
Actual
1980
2000
Fitted
21
0
50
Quadrillion BTU
100
150
200
Sharp change after the energy shocks!
1940
1960
Year
Actual
1980
2000
Fitted
22
Energy prices matter!
• Stabilized US energy consumption for about 20 years
• GDP growth was a little slower: about 0.2% per year
23