UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT
MULTI-YEAR EXPERT MEETING ON COMMODITIES
AND DEVELOPMENT
9-10 April 2014
Technology options to flexibly cope with
stochastic renewable resources including
the role of biofuels or synthetic fuels
by
Prof Daniel Favrat
Ecole polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)
Energy Center
and
Member of WFEO Executive and Energy Committees
( World Federation of Engineering Organizations)
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of
UNCTAD.
Technology options to flexibly cope with
stochastic renewable resources including
the role of biofuels or synthetic fuels
Prof Daniel Favrat
Ecole polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) Energy Center
and member of WFEO Executive and Energy Committees ( World
Federation of Engineering Organizations)
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Major trends Worldwide
yearly primary energy consumption
450ppm
mean CO2 concentration in atmosphere
population
30
400ppm (2013)
330
5000
CO2 [ppm]
310
x
20
x
290
10
x
x
x
270
Energy
energie [Gtep]
350
[Millions]
7000
250
1000
x
230
x
0
400
800
1200
1600
Global environment is a major concern
year
0.
2000
2
•
•
We need innovation towards less
degradation and lower emissions
Physics: conservation of mass and energy
The confusion about the term energy:
• from the Greek word     , « containing work»
•
•
•
But: driving forces result from unbalances (of exergy
levels, of concentration in materials and fluids,....)
Nature is a story of degradation: By degrading high
“exergy” value from the Sun, Earth is able to generate
vegetation and ultimately fuels and food for animals and
humans
Degradation is part of life..... But
Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014
3
Degradation is part of life ...But
would be sustainable if the tremendous
potential of the Sun-Earth-Space
unbalance would be used properly to:
• satisfy energy services
• recycle materials and wastes
• clean or dessalinate water , .....
Hence efficient use of commodities and
renewable
Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014
4
The world energy demand until 2035
World energy demand [Mtoe]
IEA current policies
Renewable 14.5%
Renewable 13%
Non linear scale
IEA Outlook 2010
A rather modest target !
5
Share of electricity generation by source
(New Policy Scenario)
But significant growth of renewable electricity everywhere
WEO2012© OECD/IEA
6
Exploiting renewable: the daily and
seasonal variations
• Solar: daily cycles + cloud/clear hours
• Wind: stochastic with dead periods (> a week)
• Hydro run of river: seasonal
• Geothermal: relatively constant
• Storage is the key
• The most flexible:
• hydro accumulation
• fuel (wood, wastes, biofuels, H2 or fossil)
conversion units
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Storage scales and technologies
• For hourly and daily fluctuations:
• Hydro pump storage whenever possible even
envisaged at small scale (16 kV level)
• Compressed air (including compressed compressed
and hydro)
• Batteries (ex: Li-Titanate with or without supercaps)
• For seasonal variations:
• Hydro dams but often far from sufficient
• Advanced conversion from fuels (either fossil, biofuels
or synthetic fuels (power to gas or power to liquid
fuels
• Engines with ORC waste heat conversion,
• Fuel cells (SOFC) or hybrid SOFC-GT with CO2
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separation
Statement and medium term vision
• Fossil fuels are still the cheapest and less
cumbersome way to store energy
• Liquid and gaseous fossil fuels should be
essentially used to backup renewable
energies, in particular the stochastic ones
(less and less used for base load production)
• In a longer term replaced by synthetic fuels
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SYNTHETIC HYDROCARBONS
n CO2 + (3n+1) H2  CH3-(CH2)n-2- CH3 + 2n H2O
SYNTHESIS
H2
CO2
O2
SUN
H 2O
-(CH2)n-
O2
ENERGY
H2
O2
OHH2
O2
H2O
e-
H
H2O
H2O
OH-
eH2O
O2
Electrolyte
KOH/H2O
H2O  H2 + ½O2
H 2O
ELECTROLYSIS
Slide from Prof Züttel
H 2O
ENERGY
CO2
Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014
http://energycenter.epfl.ch
COMBUSTION
10
Renewable fuel refinery based on H2
CO2 and N2
Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014
http://energycenter.epfl.ch
Slide from Prof Züttel
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Swiss seasonal variations highlighted by
Swiss energyscope.ch , a platform for energy scenarios
Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014
http://energycenter.epfl.ch
12
The example of Switzerland: Future
renewable electricity
Renewable technologies have
significant requirements for:
- materials
- embedded energy
Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014
http://energycenter.epfl.ch
14
economy, from 1919 to 2007
(Al, Cu, Pb, Zn, Fe, Cr, Phosphate rock, K20, Pt Group Metals, Co, Au, Mn, Ni, Baryte)
Trend of the World production
(in metric tons of 14 minerals and metals)
Data source: USGS Data series 140 - http://minerals.usgs.g
2 500 000 000
(Al,Cu,Pb,Zn,Fe,Cr,…..)
In
about 90 years the
production
Fromworld
Varet (BRGM)
and USGS Data Series 140
2 000 000 000
2 000
000 listed commodities was multiplied by
of000the
• Ina90
years:
with
strong
acceleration since 2002,
• Population growth by 3.6
11500
000
500
000000
000 the world population grew only by a factor of
while
• Production of minerals &metals by 20
20!
The
BRIC
take-off
3.6!
.
1 000 000 000
500 000 000
1919
1921
1923
1925
1927
1929
1931
1933
1935
1937
1939
1941
1943
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
0
http://www.divex.ca/documents/acfaspresentations2013/Varet13
%20economie%20mat%20premieres%20ACFAS.pdf
15
Diversification of the economy towards
Une table de Mendeleïev de
plus en(“small”)
plus sollicitée:
other
metals
diversification
’
de l économie vers les « petits métaux »
Evolution of the number of “small” metals
Years 1980s: 10
Years 1990s: 15
Years 2000s: 60
Diversification of the economy
towards other (“small”) metals
Source: Varet BRGM
http://www.divex.ca/documents/acfaspresentations2013/Varet13
%20economie%20mat%20premieres%20ACFAS.pdf
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Innovation towards sustainability
From a non sustainable abundance to:
• An energy and materials moderated approach (eco
efficient energy and materials use, increased use of
renewable, proper waste management including for
CO2 and nuclear wastes)
Need for innovation
• with novel indicators (both technical and economical)
• Novel design and planning methods ( holistic, LCA,
etc.)
• Integrated systems with advanced technologies
Let us manage efficiently our commodities
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Thank you for your
attention !
Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014
http://energycenter.epfl.ch
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