Carbon in US Energy Production
gy
Peter Wilcoxen
D
Departments of Economics and Public Administration
t
t fE
i
d P bli Ad i i t ti
The Maxwell School, Syracuse University
SURE 2010
November 4, 2010
http://wilcoxen.maxwell.insightworks.com/pages/talks/
SURE 2010 ‐ 1
Fuel use and energy units
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• National fuel use is measured in quads
▫ 1 quad = 1 quadrillion BTU (10^15)
• How large is a quad?
▫ Coal “unit trains”: 100 cars, about 1 mile long
▫ 1 train fuels a 300 MW power plant for about 3 days
▫ 1 quad = 4,500 unit trains
SURE 2010 ‐ 2
SURE 2010 ‐ 3
Translating energy into CO2
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• Fuels differ in carbon intensity
120
▫ CO2 produced per quad
▫ Petroleum Ø 23%
▫ Natural gas Ø 44%
MMT C
CO2 per Quad
• Relative to coal:
100
95
73
80
53
60
40
20
0
Coal
Oil
Gas
SURE 2010 ‐ 4
Emissions in million metric tons of carbon (mmt C). Convert to tons of CO2 by multiplying by 44/12.
Dark blue flows: emissions from power plants. Attributed to end uses in proportion to electricity consumption.
SURE 2010 ‐ 5
Electricity growth has been particularly strong ...
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hh b
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0
10
20
30
40
US Primary Energy Consumption
y
gy
p
1950
1960
Residential
Industrial
1970
1980
year
1990
Commercial
Transportation
2000
2010
Electricity
SURE 2010 ‐ 6
... especially as a share of the total
i ll
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f h
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0
Percent of Totall
10
20
30
40
Composition of US Primary Energy Consumption
p
y
gy
p
1950
1960
Residential
Industrial
1970
1980
year
1990
Commercial
Transportation
2000
2010
Electricity
SURE 2010 ‐ 7
SURE 2010 ‐ 8
California load curve
lif i l d
• Independent System Operator (ISO)
▫ Operates part of the electrical grid
• Data for January 21, 2008
• Demand (red curve):
▫ Min at 3:30 am, 21 GW
,
▫ Max at 6:30 pm, 32.5 GW
▫ Max is 55% higher
• Capacity (green curve):
▫ 34.5–41 GW
SURE 2010 ‐ 9
Types of plants
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• Base load
▫ Run almost all the time
▫ Expensive to build, slow start, cheap to run
Coal nuclear
▫ Coal, nuclear
• Peaking
▫ Run during peak periods
R d i
k
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▫ Cheap to build, quick start, expensive to run
▫ Gas, oil, hydro
• Intermittent
▫ Weather dependent: wind, solar
p
SURE 2010 ‐ 10
Oil
12% of capacity
50 GWyr
Natural Gas
22% of capacity
290 GWyr
7 GWyr
Electric Sector Capacity Utilization
2006
84 GWyr
Coal
72% of capacity
84 GWyr
511 GWyr
y
224 GWyr
Nuclear
90% of capacity
10 GWyr
GW r
Renewables
R
bl
34% of capacity
77 GWyr
90 GWyr
39 GWyr
955 GWyr
GW r
444 GWyr
Legend
Electricity, GWyr [GWyr]
Additional Capacity, GWyr
[GWyr]
SURE 2010 ‐ 11
When were plants built?
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SURE 2010 ‐ 12
Potential gains from fuel switching
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• Carbon intensity of fuels
12
1.2
▫ Gas: 44% less CO2 per quad
▫ Pulverized coal ≈ 34%
▫ Combined cycle gas ≈ 46%
• CO2 per MWh relative to coal:
▫ Natural gas Ø 57%
MT CO
O2 per MW
Wh
• Efficiency in generation
1
0.94
0.8
0.6
0.40
0.4
0.2
0
Coal
CC Gas
SURE 2010 ‐ 13
Leading options for replacing fossil
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• Integrated gasification combined cycle coal (IGCC) g
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y
(
)
▫ With carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)
• Combined cycle gas
Combined cycle gas
▫ With CCS
• Nuclear
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• Renewables
SURE 2010 ‐ 14
Replacing fossil completely?
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• Need about 550 GW to eliminate fossil
▫ 330 GW base load
▫ 220 GW peaking
• Fossil with CCS
▫ 410 GW of IGCC CCS coal (80% utilization) = $1.4 T
▫ Add CCS to 220 GW of combined cycle gas = $220 B
Add CCS t 220 GW f
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$220 B
x Total = $1.6T
• Intermittent renewables
▫ 1300 GW of wind (25% utilization) = $2.5 T
f
y g
▫ Add CCS to 220 GW of combined cycle gas = $220 B
x Total = $2.7 T
SURE 2010 ‐ 15
Transmission grid
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• Can we get power where it’s needed?
g p
• Especially important for wind and solar
▫ Best locations are far from cities
B l
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▫ Need geographic dispersion
SURE 2010 ‐ 16
More grid capacity needed for wind
id
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d df
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Variation in wholesale electricity prices due to grid congestion
yp
g
g
From “2006
From 2006 Midwest ISO
Midwest ISO‐PJW
PJW Coordinated System Plan (CSP),
Coordinated System Plan (CSP),” December 2006. December 2006.
SURE 2010 ‐ 17
Historical perspective?
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• Does fuel use rise inexorably no matter what?
y
• What do we know from history about fuel use?
SURE 2010 ‐ 18
0
50
Quadrillion BTU
U
100
150
20
00
Exponential growth after the war (3.4%)
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h f
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( %)
1940
1960
Year
Actual
1980
2000
Fitted
SURE 2010 ‐ 19
0
50
Quadrillion BTU
U
100
150
20
00
Sharp change after the energy shocks!
h
h
f
h
h k!
1940
1960
Year
Actual
1980
2000
Fitted
SURE 2010 ‐ 20
Energy prices matter!
i
!
• Stabilized US energy consumption
gy
p
▫ Flat for about 20 years
• GDP growth was a little slower
GDP gro th as a little slo er
▫ About 0.2% per year: from 3.2% to 3.0%
SURE 2010 ‐ 21
A very large problem ...
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• Currently:
y
▫ 86 quads of fossil fuels
▫ 6 gigatons of CO2 emissions
• To limit temperature increase to 2° C:
▫ Need to bring CO2 down by more than 80%
• Rough targets by 2050:
▫ 16 fossil quads f
q
▫ 1 gigaton CO2
Ø70 quads
q
Ø 5 gigatons
• Will be very difficult without a rise in fossil prices
Will be very difficult without a rise in fossil prices
SURE 2010 ‐ 22