Avian Conservation Science Tools for
Strategic Forest Planning:
A New Multi-species Approach
to Evaluating Forest Condition
John D Alexander, PhD
Forest Service Research and Development Seminar Series:
Innovations in science and technology for
monitoring, assessment, and inventory efforts
April 29, 2014
Klamath Bird Observatory
Advancing bird and habitat conservation through
science, education, and partnerships.
(Alexander et al. 2004; KS Ecology Proceedings)
Outline
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Challenges:
 Science – Management Divide
 Closing Adaptive Management Cycle
Learning communities for ecosystem management:
 Participatory Social Science
 Strategy for Applied Science and Delivery
Avian Conservation Science Tools:
 Adaptive Management Applied – beyond NEPA
 Examples: Northwest Forest Management
Innovations:
 Fine-scaled Modeling
 Landscape Change
Conclusions:
 Meeting IM&A Objectives
Acknowledgements
J Stephens
CJ Ralph
B Bresson
N Seavy
B Altman
M Betts
S Veloz
S Shirley
K Halstead
G Geupel
M Pitkin
S Cuenca
D Clayton
S Stresser
A Marcus
T Will
V Sturtevant
M Scott
K Rosenberg
D Jongsomjit
N Elliot
L Salas
G Ballard
Z Yang
R Hutchinson
K McGarigal
J Rousseau
J Livaudais
Context
Science-based Tools
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Species assessment database
Standard monitoring techniques
Conservation plans
Data-rich models
Conservation design process
(Alexander 2011; NABCI 2011)
Challenges
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Science and Management
 Separate Traditions
 Compartmentalized
 Ineffective Science
Delivery & Application
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Community Learning
 Collective Knowledge
 Challenge Norms
 Compartmentalized
 Relevant Applied Science
& Tools
(Bliss1999; Smith 2000; Roux et al. 2006; Bormann et al. 2007; Scott et al. 2007; Graffy 2008; Hall & Fleishman 2010)
ORWACA Meeting – April 2005
Participatory Action Research
•Degree of community control
•Reciprocal production of knowledge
•Utility and action of outcomes
Challenges:
Science Not Used
Culture - When to engage?
Consultants, Science-based NGOs,
Environmental Advocates
Engage agency community for better understanding and change
(McIntyre 2008; Wulfhorst et al. 2008,; Alexander 2011)
Bridging the Science-Management Divide
Monitoring & Research
Conservation Objectives
•Relationships
•Early Collaboration
•Applied Science
•Delivery
(communications)
Management Objectives
Science-based
NGOs
(Alexander 2011)
Avian Conservation Science Tools Applied
Adaptive Management
• Cost effective
• Engage leadership
• Consensus
Decision Support Tools
• Who is the audience?
• What is the question?
• What are the information gaps?
• Where are the transfer points?
(Alexander et al. 2009; Williams et. al. 2009; Stephens et al. 2011)
Catalyst for Adaptive Management
Avian Knowledge Network
(Iliff 2009)
Stewardship Responsibility/Opportunity (NEPA)
(Rich et al. 2004; USFWS 2008; NABCI 2011; Panjabi et al., 2012)
Quantitative Habitat and Population Objectives
Beyond NEPA
• Align with broad objectives of RMPs/LMPs
• Multiple species at multiple scales
Focal Species – Habitat Attributes
Conservation
Objectives
(Altman and Alexander 2012; Chase and Geupel 2005)
Forest Management Habitat Models
Broadleaf-conifer mix
Bushtit
Lazuli Bunting
Spotted Towhee
Black-headed Grosbeak
*Black-thr. Gray Warbler
Nashville Warbler
High volume conifer
Golden-crowned Kinglet
Townsend's Solitaire
*Brown Creeper
*Hermit Warbler
*Pacific-slope Flycatcher
*Winter Wren
Conifer generalists
Red-breasted Nuthatch
Yellow-rumped Warbler
Low volume conifer
Mountain Chickadee
Green-tailed Towhee
Chapparal and Oak woodland
Bewick's Wren
Bullock's Oriole
California Towhee
Lesser Goldfinch
Western Scrub-Jay
Western Wood-pewee
* Oregon-Washington PIF Focal Species (Western Coniferous Forests)
White-breasted Nuthatch
(Betts et al. 2010; Seavy and Alexander 2011; Altman and Alexander 2012)
Ashland Forest Resiliency EIS
Broadleaf-conifer mix
Bushtit
Lazuli Bunting
Spotted Towhee
Black-headed Grosbeak
*Black-thr. Gray Warbler
Nashville Warbler
High volume conifer
Golden-crowned Kinglet
Townsend's Solitaire
*Brown Creeper
*Hermit Warbler
*Pacific-slope Flycatcher
*Winter Wren
Conifer generalists
Red-breasted Nuthatch
Yellow-rumped Warbler
Low volume conifer
Mountain Chickadee
Green-tailed Towhee
Chapparal and Oak woodland
Bewick's Wren
Bullock's Oriole
California Towhee
Lesser Goldfinch
Western Scrub-Jay
Western Wood-pewee
* Oregon-Washington PIF Focal Species (Western Coniferous Forests)
White-breasted Nuthatch
(USDA 2008)
Ashland Forest Resiliency EIS
Broadleaf-conifer mix
Bushtit
Lazuli Bunting
Spotted Towhee
Black-headed Grosbeak
*Black-thr. Gray Warbler
Nashville Warbler
High volume conifer
Golden-crowned Kinglet
Townsend's Solitaire
*Brown Creeper
*Hermit Warbler
*Pacific-slope Flycatcher
*Winter Wren
Conifer generalists
Red-breasted Nuthatch
Yellow-rumped Warbler
Low volume conifer
Mountain Chickadee
Green-tailed Towhee
Chapparal and Oak woodland
Bewick's Wren
Bullock's Oriole
California Towhee
Lesser Goldfinch
Western Scrub-Jay
Western Wood-pewee
* Oregon-Washington PIF Focal Species (Western Coniferous Forests)
White-breasted Nuthatch
(USDA 2008)
Climate-wise Sceince
Rufous Hummingbird
(Veloz et al. 2013)
(Veloz et al. 2013)
Bird Conservation Hotspots (Zonation)
Conifer
species
Grassland
species
Oak woodland
species
Riparian
species
(Veloz et al. 2013)
Forest Restoration Priorities
Forest Restoration Priorities
Focal Species Habitat Objectives
(Altman and Alexander 2012)
Focal Species Habitat Objectives
(Altman and Alexander 2012)
New Modeling Approach
• High-resolution Predictions
• Habitat Change Detection
• Informed by Habitat Relationships
Boosted Regression Tree Models
Band 1 + 2 + 3 etc. = Presence/Absence
Average AUC - 40 species
0.87 (SD = 0.067)
0.71 to 0.99
(Shirley et al. 2013)
Stacked Distribution Models
Predicted species richness
or habitat suitability
Etc… N = 48 species
(Halstead 2013)
Forest Management Habitat Models
Broadleaf-conifer mix
Bushtit
Lazuli Bunting
Spotted Towhee
Black-headed Grosbeak
*Black-thr. Gray Warbler
Nashville Warbler
High volume conifer
Golden-crowned Kinglet
Townsend's Solitaire
*Brown Creeper
*Hermit Warbler
*Pacific-slope Flycatcher
*Winter Wren
Conifer generalists
Red-breasted Nuthatch
Yellow-rumped Warbler
Low volume conifer
Mountain Chickadee
Green-tailed Towhee
Chapparal and Oak woodland
Bewick's Wren
Bullock's Oriole
California Towhee
Lesser Goldfinch
Western Scrub-Jay
Western Wood-pewee
* Oregon-Washington PIF Focal Species (Western Coniferous Forests)
White-breasted Nuthatch
(Betts et al. 2010; Seavy and Alexander 2011; Altman and Alexander 2012)
Forest Management Habitat Models
Broadleaf-conifer mix
Bushtit
Lazuli Bunting
Spotted Towhee
Black-headed Grosbeak
*Black-thr. Gray Warbler
Nashville Warbler
High volume conifer
Golden-crowned Kinglet
Townsend's Solitaire
*Brown Creeper
*Hermit Warbler
*Pacific-slope Flycatcher
*Winter Wren
Conifer generalists
Red-breasted Nuthatch
Yellow-rumped Warbler
Low volume conifer
Mountain Chickadee
Green-tailed Towhee
Chapparal and Oak woodland
Bewick's Wren
Bullock's Oriole
California Towhee
Lesser Goldfinch
Western Scrub-Jay
Western Wood-pewee
* Oregon-Washington PIF Focal Species (Western Coniferous Forests)
White-breasted Nuthatch
(Betts et al. 2010; Seavy and Alexander 2011; Altman and Alexander 2012)
Forest Management Habitat Models
Broadleaf-conifer mix
Bushtit
Lazuli Bunting
Spotted Towhee
Black-headed Grosbeak
*Black-thr. Gray Warbler
Nashville Warbler
High volume conifer
Golden-crowned Kinglet
Townsend's Solitaire
*Brown Creeper
*Hermit Warbler
*Pacific-slope Flycatcher
*Winter Wren
Conifer generalists
Red-breasted Nuthatch
Yellow-rumped Warbler
Low volume conifer
Mountain Chickadee
Green-tailed Towhee
Chapparal and Oak woodland
Bewick's Wren
Bullock's Oriole
California Towhee
Lesser Goldfinch
Western Scrub-Jay
Western Wood-pewee
* Oregon-Washington PIF Focal Species (Western Coniferous Forests)
White-breasted Nuthatch
(Betts et al. 2010; Seavy and Alexander 2011; Altman and Alexander 2012)
IM&A System Objectives
Goal 1: Support effective decision-making by providing relevant and
credible information.
 Objective 1: Priority management questions
 Objective 2: Integration and scalability
 Objective 3: Ensure relevant science.
 Objective 4: Quality and consistency
 Objective 5: Timely and accessible
Goal 2: Ensure that all activities are inclusive and comprehensive.
 Objective 1: Understand partner and stakeholder interests and address
shared information needs
 Objective 2: Address issues across boundaries
Goal 3: Ensure system is responsive and adaptive to change
 Objective 1: Supports management and is responsive to change
 Objective 2: Responsive and adaptive to changing agency capacity
Testimonial:
Barb Bresson
Service First:
US Forest Service Region 6
Oregon Washington BLM
Avian Conservation Program Coordinator
Questions / Discussion
John Alexander
jda@KlamathBird.org