Hawaii: 2020
Presented by Alex Waegel
for Team Cake B
Current Energy Production and Use
• Most of the energy for both electricity and
transportation comes from fossil fuels, primarily
petroleum.
• Hawaii generates 11.0 TWh electricity each year
(30 TWh of fossil fuels are burned)
– 9.0 TWh comes from petroleum
– 1.5 TWh comes from coal
– 0.5 TWh comes from a mix of renewables (Geothermal,
hydroelectric, wind)
• Hawaii uses 17.4 TWh of energy on personal
vehicle transportation
– This all comes from petroleum
Electrical Generation by Source (MWh / year)
80,000
212,000
82,000
1,548,598
9,063,258
Petroleum
Coal
Hydroelectric
Geothermal
Wind
Cost of Current Energy System
• Hawaiians spend a total of $5.4 billion to meet
their energy needs
– $0.35/kWh for electricity, $3.8 billion total
– $0.088/kWh for gasoline (~$3/gal), $1.4 billion total
• These costs are prohibitively high compared to
the continental U.S.
– This makes all renewable options cost competetive
CO2 Emissions in Current System
• Total Emissions = 28.7 million tons CO2
– 18.5 million tons for electrical generation
•15 million tons from petroleum
•3.5 million tons from coal
– 10.2 million tons for transportation
•All from petroleum
Energy Production in 2020
• Due to the high cost of conventional energy on
Hawaii and the abundance of renewable energy,
a great deal of renewable energy sources are
added
– 1,850 MW of Solar PV
– 1,000 MW of Wind Turbines (Offshore, Floating)
– 500 MW of Geothermal
– 100 MW of Wave / Tidal
Production and Cost of New Capacity
• Solar
–
–
–
–
–
Size: 1,850 MW
Initial Cost: $6.5 billion
Generates: 2.7 TWh / year
Estimated Cost of Elec: $0.10 / kWh
Estimated Annual Cost: $270 million
• Wind
–
–
–
–
–
Size: 1,000 MW
Initial Cost: $1.0 billion
Generates: 4.2 TWh / year
Estimated Cost of Elec: $0.06 / kWh
Estimated Annual Cost: $252 million
Production and Cost of New Capacity
• Geothermal
–
–
–
–
–
Size: 500 MW
Initial Cost: $2.3 billion
Generates: 3.9 TWh / year
Estimated Cost of Elec: $0.03 / kWh
Estimated Annual Cost: $117 million
• Wave / Tidal
–
–
–
–
–
Size: 100 MW
Initial Cost: $0.25 billion
Generates: 0.45 TWh / year
Estimated Cost of Elec: $0.05 / kWh
Estimated Annual Cost: $23 million
Two 2020 Scenarios
• Given the inability of grids to handle > 20%
intermittent electrical generation the wind will be
primarily devoted to meeting transportation
needs.
– Scenario 1: Hydrogen Generation via Electrolysis
– Scenario 2: Battery Charging of Electric Vehicles
• These lead to different energy breakdowns and
costs
Hydrogen Generation Via Electrolysis
• Wind Generates 4.2 TWh / year
– This becomes 110 million kg of H2
– The efficiency of creating the H2 and using it in the
FCV is 40.5%
– This displaces 59% of the petroleum used in the
transport sector for personal vehicles
– The hydrogen is estimated to cost $4.50/kg
• Still Rely on 7.1 TWh of petroleum to supply the
remainder of the personal transportation needs
Electrical Generation by Source in 2020 (Hydrogen)
450,000
1,206,672
2,700,000
1,548,598
82,000
3,900,000
Petroleum
Coal
Hydroelectric
Geothermal
Solar
Wave/Tidal
Additional Cost of Hydrogen System
• Assumptions
–
–
–
–
–
Will use on site electrolyzers
Will store hydrogen as compressed gas
There will be 45 stations converted to carry H2
Very low cost of $30,000 / fuel cell for vehicle
720,000 vehicles will be FCV
• Costs
–
–
–
–
–
Electrolyzer: $2.53 million / station
Compresser: $2.00 million / station
Storage Tank: $9.00 million / station
Total Costs for all Stations: $609 million
Total Cost for FCVs: $21.6 BILLION
CO2 Emissions in Hydrogen System
• Total Emissions = 9.7 million tons CO2
– 5.5 million tons for electrical generation
•2.0 million tons from petroleum
•3.5 million tons from coal
– 4.2 million tons for transportation
•All from petroleum
Battery Charging of Electric Vehicles
• Wind Generates 4.2 TWh / year
– Due to the much higher overall efficiency (81%) of the
cycle of charging and discharging the batteries, this
amount of wind energy is more than enough to
displace all of the petroleum needs for transport
– 3.87 TWh goes to battery charging
– 0.35 TWh goes to the grid
Electric Generation by Source in 2020 (Electric Vehicles)
338,049
450,000
868,623
1,548,598
2,700,000
82,000
3,900,000
Petroleum
Coal
Hydroelectric
Geothermal
Solar
Wave/Tidal
Wind
Additional Cost of Electric Vehicle System
• Costing this scenario presents difficulties due to
uncertain costs of the vehicles
• Just looking at the cost of battery systems for the
vehicles, which we assume have twice the
capacity of the Chevy Volt (32kWh)
• Cost for 1.2 million cars (total number in HI)
• $300/kWh cost for batteries (future cost)
• $11.5 billion for all vehicles
CO2 Emissions in Electric Car System
• Total Emissions = 4.9 million tons CO2
– 4.9 million tons for electrical generation
•1.4 million tons from petroleum
•3.5 million tons from coal
– 0.0 million tons for transportation
•All transportation energy comes from wind
Final Costs and Emissions
Initial Cost
(billions)
Current
System
% Renewable Annual CO2
Electricity
Emissions
(million tons)
N/A
3.4%
28.7
Hydrogen
Scenario
(2020)
$32.25
72.1%
9.7
Electric Car
Scenario
(2020)
$21.55
75.6%
4.9
Conclusions
• Renewable energy sources can significantly
reduce Hawaii’s dependence on foreign oil
without excessive cost
• Hydrogen from renewables has potential, but
requires significant capital investment in
infrastructure for statewide implementation
• Hawaii’s high cost of electricity makes it the ideal
place for the application hydrogen and other
renewable alternatives as they are all
comparatively economical.
Conclusions
• Of the two choices for 2020, using wind power to
charge electric vehicles superior
– Costs less
– Reduces emission to a greater extent
– Due to being on islands, trip distances are by default
relatively short, and will not exceed the range of the
electric vehicles
– Allows for a zero emission transportation system
– Using the intermittent power source to charge vehicles
keeps the share of intermittent sources providing
electrical power to a minimum
Conclusions
• Cons to Electric Vehicle System
– Relies on development of a smart grid
– This would be an advantageous development for other
reasons, but represents a significant infrastructure
improvement and potentially high costs
Thank You!
The End!
Questions?