Could Al Qaeda Win?
Dan Plesch
Strategic Studies Course
UK Armed Forces
University of Cambridge
Copyright Dan Plesch 2004

Dan Plesch
Author of The Beauty Queen’s Guide to
World Peace www.danplesch.net
www.amazon.com
Copyright Dan Plesch 2004

AQ Objectives
Get Crusaders and Zionists out of
Saudi Arabia & other Islamic areas
Unite the Umma-Overthrow Apostates
Repeat the triumphs of the C7th AD
- defeating America
Copyright Dan Plesch 2004

Conventional wisdom
Downplays risks from those that dream of the C7 th
•Downplays risks from
Bush and Sharon
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Declaration of War 1996
“Today your brothers and sons, the sons of the two Holy Places, have started their Jihad in the cause of Allah, to expel the occupying enemy out of the country of the two Holy places… in order to re-establish the greatness of this
Ummah and to liberate its' occupied sanctities.
…Due to the imbalance of power between our armed forces and the enemy forces, a suitable means of fighting must be adopted using fast moving light forces that work under complete secrecy. In other word to initiate a guerrilla warfare, where the sons of the nation, and not the military forces, take part in it.”
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Questioning the
Question?
Looking at how things look from the other side of the hill is simple good practice
But, it seems incredible to think about
Seems a disloyal question
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A conundrum
US/UK say threat like WW2 or Cold War
US/UK routinely described scenarios for
Soviet victory
We are offered no such analysis of AQ
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Implications of not being able to look over the hill?
A systemic failure of organisational culture?
Why can’t we look
Over the Hill?
Is there something nasty in our woodshed?
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Empathy and Sympathy
Empathy is essential to understanding adversary
Do not confuse EMPATHY with
SYMPATHY for aims, objectives, ideology
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Copyright Dan Plesch 2004

Overcoming domination
Radical Islam sees the West in direct occupation or control of most of the
Islamic world
A trend since 1600, accelerated in
1900s
Corrupt elites, poverty and military repression seen as imposed by the
West
Copyright Dan Plesch 2004

What is AQ?
Corporation? Network?
A Vanguard Party building mass support
Manchester United supporters as a model of
Radical Islam
Some professionals
Some fulltime marketing people
Many who dream of playing
They don’t need to be told when to cheer
Copyright Dan Plesch 2004

One Western Empire down…
Reagan and Thatcher themselves praised the
Mujahideen for helping bring down
Communism
Their role in destroying communism provides a powerful example of success to radical
Islamists-not usually included in Western analysis of failure of modern Islam
Comparison to C7th USSR=Persia
US=Byzantium
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Al Qaeda’s cost benefit analysis
9/11 – sacrifice 4 or
5 special forces teams
$600 billion damage
Transform international political agenda
From Zero to Hero with large part of world population
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AQ Cost/benefit analysis
Attacks in 3 rd world.
Turkey
Indonesia
Kenya
Morocco
Tunisia
Obviously inhuman attacks on innocents;
Also…..
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3 rd World attacks
Show global reach
Attack apostates and Christians
Destroy decadent tourism in oceans of poverty
Force withdrawal of Western flights, business, tourism,
Further pressure economy of apostates
Begin to create destabilised societies more open to support AQ ideology
Copyright Dan Plesch 2004

Geo-strategic nature of
AQ attacks
For cost of small special forces units
 Achieve strategic advance in key countries:
 Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, Iraq
 Create repressive environment in which
AQ can thrive and gain support
Copyright Dan Plesch 2004

Troops Out?
US forces have apparently left Saudi
Arabia?
The blasphemy of their presence was the stated casus belli.
Withdrawal is a sign of victory and an indicator that more victories may come
– though we might like to see it as a prudent and conciliatory measure
Saudi:-Guerrilla War/Civil War?
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Summary of victories to date
9/11- Geostrategic economic and political success
3 rd World attacks drive out Western links, draw peoples towards AQ thinking
US forced out of Saudi-Now Western staff
US/allies in two hard-to-win or no-win ground wars
West divided-will splits increase?
Western relations with Turkey, Saudi, Iraq now far less stable
AQ inside US/UK decision making – has initiative
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Limitations
No Rising in the “Arab street”
Strong internal divisions in movements
– Is Islam any more unified and fundamentalist than Christianity?
Strong distate for violent/puritanical/sectarian approach
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Elements of Effective
Strategy
British Army Doctrine —Kitson A check list
 Coordinate policy X
 Address Grievance X
 Keep to Rule of Law X
 Establish Good political climate X
 Strengthen home base X
 Deny enemy base X
 Build Good intelligence X
 Recognise there is no military solution X
Copyright Dan Plesch 2004

Playing into AQ’s hands
Quantanamo/Abu Ghraib-abandoning Rule of
Law-weakening legitimacy
Bad Political environment endorsing repression of Islam globally-
Israel/Phil/Indon/Uzb/ weakened alliance with Europe declining democratic participation
No secure base-AQ recruits and lives in West
Poor Intell and Intell co-operation
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West marches into traps?
Rumsfeld now says that Iraq and Afghanistan will be long, hard slogs.
 (George Marshall recommended the US not get into a ground war in Asia)
Americans now looking vulnerable and being killed each day, Saddam fall a bonus,
Wahhabism recruiting hard
50% of US forces pinned and hard to extract
New US Divisions take 3yrs to build and cost
$1.8bn p.a
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High-Tech > Low-tech Warfare
15 MEU crossing border

Low tech IED
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The opportunity now for the ‘Base’
The radicalisation of the Islamic public and the overthrow of the corrupt military regimes offers the prospect of crippling
Western power.
<Landsat of Kuwait oil fires
Copyright Dan Plesch 2004

Risk is Political
Instability and Regime
Change
The rise of a new generation of ‘Col
Nassers’ with a strong religious motivation, born of the humiliation of the Muslim world is a spectre from Ankara to
Jakarta
Copyright Dan Plesch 2004

Brookings study
The worse case:
Partial cut off from
Muslim suppliers
$75 per barrel inflation up by 5%
The worst case:
Total cut off from
Muslim suppliers
$161 per barrel
Inflation up 15%
The War on Terrorism, the World Oil Market and the U.S. Economy, October 24, 2001
– George Perry, Senior Fellow, Economic Studies
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Worst case template
The historical worst case battle is the battle of Cannae: Zulu tactic of bulls horns
 1. Lure enemy onto your ground
 2. Pin his main forces
 3. Encircle and annihilate
Copyright Dan Plesch 2004

A geostrategic Cannae on the West?
1. Lure enemy onto your ground
 The provocation of 9/11
2. Pin his main forces
 The response of repression
 Ground wars unwinnable
3. Encircle and annihilate


Control/Cut off oil by controlling supplier states and sabotaging choke points Gulf states,
Indonesia, Libya, Sudan, Algeria – most major suppliers Islamic importers EU,US, Jap
Pak Nukes


Timing?
Likelihood is that ‘long hard slog’ means attackers will continue to have initiative
Additional perceived repressive acts will tend to increase support.
Any single regime change may have knock –on effects. civil war in Saudi.
Copyright Dan Plesch 2004

Copyright Dan Plesch 2004