Tony Dutzik, Senior Policy Analyst, Frontier Group
Presentation to the ACT Canada
Sustainable Mobility Summit
29 October 2013
Non-profit, non-partisan, U.S.-based public
policy organization.
 Founded in 1996.
 Additional resources on transportation and
other issues available at
www.frontiergroup.org.

Today’s presentation
 The technological revolution and the
end of the Driving Boom.
 Technology-enabled transportation
tools: what they are, why they matter
and implications for driving and transit.
 Where do we go from here?
 Q&A
 U.S. vehicle travel
peaked in 2007.
 Americans now drive
as many miles in total
as we did in late 2004
and as many miles per
capita as we did in
1996.
 Transit ridership
increased 2% from
2007-12 in U.S.
Vehicle travel
has stagnated or
declined in
several advanced
industrial
economies in
recent years.
Source: Van Dender and Clever, 2013,
International Transport Forum
 The smartphone has
put location-aware,
Internet connected,
mobile technology in
the hands of tens of
millions of people …
almost all of them
since 2007.
U.S. Market Penetration of Various
Technologies, 2000-2012
Sources: Pew Center for Internet & American Life,
U.S. Department of Commerce
Vehicle trips per driver
Avg. trip distance
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
-15%
-16%
Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, National
Household Travel Survey
 Vehicle distance traveled
declined by 23% among U.S.
16 to 34 year olds from
2001 to 2009.
 Distance traveled by transit,
biking and walking increased
among this group.
 In 2012, two-thirds of young
adults owned a smartphone
vs. roughly half of all
Americans. Young adults
were twice as likely to have a
smartphone as 50 to 64year-olds.
 What are the connections
between technology and
transportation?
 What new technologyenabled tools have the
potential to affect
transportation choices in
the years to come?
 What evidence is there of
their influence on driving,
vehicle ownership and
other aspects of mobility?
Technology can replace travel. (e.g. telecommuting
replacing work trips)
 Technology can stimulate travel. (e.g. using the
Internet to research flights or hotels for a vacation)
 Technology can encourage changes in the time and
manner of travel.

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The ability to remain
connected while in travel is
an increasingly valuable
amenity.
Adding wi-fi on intercity
train in California resulted
in 2.7% increase in # of
trips, with greatest impact
among new riders.
(Mokhtarian, et al., 2013)

Increasing alarm about
dangers of distracted
driving could result in new
restrictions in mobile
device use while driving.
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Photo illustration: Harriet Eckstein Graphic Design.
Services that assist travelers
or enable new economic
models for transportation,
and that are made possible by
the Internet and/or mobile
communications.
Focus on means of travel
other than household-owned
motor vehicles.
Provide a “field guide” to
these emerging tools and
services and demonstrate
impact on transportation
behaviors.


Fleet-based
◦ Round-trip
(e.g. Zipcar)
◦ One-way (e.g. car2go)
◦ Autolib’ EVs
Peer-to-peer
 ~ 1 million North American members
 Carsharing associated with vehicle travel decrease of >27% and
reductions in vehicle ownership.
 Significant share of carsharing members report increased use of
transit. (Shaheen, et al., 2009)


>30 systems in U.S.
NYC, Chicago added
in 2013. NYC:
8.8 million miles
traveled since May.
 About 5 percent of bikeshare members report having sold a
personal vehicle.
 >25% report driving less as a result of bikeshare.
 Users in some cities reported decreased use of transit (D.C.,
Toronto, Montreal) but others reported increase in rail transit use.
(Shaheen, et al., 2012)

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Static routing &
scheduling
Real-time.
Mobile ticketing.
 >60% of N. American transit agencies with the ability to track
vehicles now supply real-time information to the public. (APTA,
2013)
 Users of real-time information report reductions in perceived wait
times. A few surveys (Chicago, Seattle) have found increases in
ridership or willingness to ride.
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Ridesharing (ride
matching & ondemand)
“Transportation
networking services,”
(e.g. Lyft)
Taxi hailing and
black car services
(e.g. HailO, Uber)
Intermodal tripplanning apps.
 New and emerging business
models. Implications for vehicle
ownership and travel patterns yet
to be determined.

Do new technologyenabled services
complement or
compete with
established transit
service?
Technology-enabled tools reduce barriers to
other modes of travel. Usually (though not
always) driving.
The combination of many services may enable access
to 24/7 mobility with more choices and lower cost –
supporting car-free and car-light lifestyles.

Low hanging fruit
◦ Provide schedules and maps on-line. Provide realtime information. Open source, open data wherever
possible.
◦ Wi-fi and cellular connectivity on transit vehicles.
◦ These are proven to be valuable amenities to riders
and represent a powerful selling point vis-à-vis
driving.

Embrace a multi-modal future
◦ “We’re all multimodal now.”
◦ Provide connections with carshare, bikeshare,
rideshare, transit.
◦ Develop and encourage multi-modal trip-planning
tools
◦ Break down silos in planning, funding and
administration.

Modernize regulations
◦ New services emerging that were never anticipated
by previous generations of policy-makers.
◦ Need to ensure that regulations balance need for
consumer protection and public safety with benefits
of new services.

Expand access
◦ To date: many new services emerging in prosperous
metros with large populations of young, tech-savvy
people.
◦ Technology-enabled tools have as much, if not
more, potential to enhance value and expand
options in other settings (e.g. suburban & rural
transit, transit in small cities.)
◦ Need to consider the proper public sector role.

Look down the road
◦ Technological changes are among the many
changes that should be influencing how we plan for
transportation.
◦ We know very little about them.
◦ Need to expand amount and quality of
transportation data and reevaluate existing models
to ensure that plans for future reflect current
trends.
Tony Dutzik
Frontier Group
tony@frontiergroup.org
www.frontiergroup.org
Twitter: @FrontierTony