How might modern civilization fall?
Presentation by
Jon Roland
June 17, 2014
http://constitution.org
Past analysis: Edward Gibbon
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Book: Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire
(1776-89)
Roman Empire succumbed to barbarian
invasions due to gradual loss of civic virtue.
Praetorian Guard was primary catalyst of initial
decay and eventual collapse.
But not aware of many other economic, political,
and ecological factors: excessive internal
predation.
Past analysis: Arnold Toynbee
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Book: Study of History (1961)
Examines genesis, growth, breakdown, and disintegration of 19 major
civilizations: Egyptian, Andean, Sinic, Minoan, Sumerian, Mayan,
Indic, Hittite, Hellenic, Orthodox Christian (Russia), Orthodox
Christian (main body), Persian, Mexican, Yucatec, Babylonic, and the
surviving Western, Far Eastern, Hindu, and Arabic-Islamic.
Each rose by successful responses to challenges that were great
enough but not too great, and fell when stagnated from lack of
challenge, or could not cope with greater challenges.
Key is leadership by “creative minorities”, and not having too many
hostile, alienated external or internal barbarians.
Breakdown occurs when leaders become dominant and predatory,
form “universal state”.
Competition among destructive predators brings disintegration.
External threats
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Predatory competing civilizations, alien
invasion, refugee floods, nuclear war.
Sudden disasters: volcanos, impactors, climate,
earthquake, disease, celestial.
Most are challenges that could be met with
sufficient preparation, so real challenge and
threat is lack of preparation.
All surviving civilizations weak on preparation.
Resource-depletion challenges
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Limits to Growth models.
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Motesharrei-Rivas-Kalnay (MRK) paper.
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They ignore alternative of urban biospheres,
assume people remain scattered across Earth
surface.
Alternative discussed in “Three Futures for
Earth”. See http://pynthan.com/vri/3f4e_002.htm
But expensive, a lifeboat for only a few of those
now living, even though for many of their
descendants.
Limits to Growth models
MRK paper
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Starts with predator-prey models, where “prey”
are resources.
Examines nonrenewable, renewable, and
stream resources, and depletion of each.
Posits wealth-income inequality as predictor of
destructive internal conflict.
But in developed countries wealth inequality is
inequality of power more than consumption,
might become a factor after economic collapse,
but that would be enough even without conflict.
Urban biospheres
Space cities
Main threats to modern civilization
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Have to lump Far Eastern, Hindu in with Western, but Islamic is on
uncertain course due to caliphism
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Non-violent, legal predation: rent-seeking
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Unmanageable complexity
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Incompetence, magical short-term thinking
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Keynesian cult
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External barbarians: caliphists, terrorists
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Internal barbarians: lawlessness, mal-bred children
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Excessive taxing, borrowing, spending
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Official immunity
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Ignorant, apathetic voters
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Easy prosperity, addiction to entertainment
Rentseeking
Unmanageable complexity
Debt bubble
Nuclear terrorism
Official immunity
The way forward - 1
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Too late to avoid global economic collapse.
But can prepare to endure, come out with
lessons learned and needed reforms.
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Help one another become good preppers.
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Educate for austerity, adversity.
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Move toward strict constitutional compliance,
without which laws, institutions won't be ready.
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Move away from fiat currencies.
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Pay off debt.
The way forward - 2
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Prepare for decades of chaos, not just months.
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Secure sources of water, food, power, medicine.
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Secure reliable communications: mesh
networking.
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Organize for mutual defense.
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Secure reliable, easily maintained transport.
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Hoard barter goods.
The way forward - 3
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Constitutional reforms
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International reforms
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Statutory reforms
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Institutional reforms
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Financial reforms
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Educational reforms
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New technology
Epitaph: Smart enough to create problems
they weren't smart enough to solve