Integrating social vulnerability
into research on food systems
and global change
Stuart Franklin – SEI Oxford
Research questions

What are the conceptual underpinnings
integrating human and natural vulnerability
and global environmental change?
 What criteria should be used to evaluate
vulnerability in order to develop an integrated
social/natural science research framework?
 What case examples highlight the strengths
and weaknesses of different vulnerability
paradigms?
Towards a narrative theory of
climate change vulnerability

The conceptualisation of climate change
impacts/vulnerability represented by the IPCC
is 10 years behind hazards theory.
 A narrative theory of vulnerability helps us to
understand not simply how, for example, food
availability and access may be under stress in
a region or locality. It helps us to understand
how and why such stress exists now or may
exist in the future.
IPCC definition

IPCC (2001: 9) define vulnerability as “the
degree to which a system is susceptible to, or
unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate
change, including climatic variability and
extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the
character, magnitude, and rate of climate
change and variation to which a system is
exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive
capacity.”
From descriptive to narrative
approaches to vulnerability

History has no theory
 Political ecology aims to divine processes of
social, economic, political and environmental
change
 It’s theoretical basis lies in its commitment to a
narrative understanding of social injustice
 It seeks to identify winners and losers and
aspects of risk within processes of change
Emergence of political ecology
“Silent Spring”
Rachel Carson
1962
European
colonial
expansion
UNEQUAL
DEVELOPMENT
Dependency
theory
CULTURAL
ECOLOGY
1960s and
70s
POLITICAL
ECOLOGY
RISKS OF
NEW
SCIENCE
1983 “Silent
Violence” Michael
Watts.
1985 “The Wheat
Trap” Andrae and
Beckman.
1985 “The Politics
of Soil Erosion . .”
Piers Blaikie
PRESSURE RELEASE MODEL
(After Blaikie et al. 1994/Wisner et al. 2003)
Vulnerability – context of hazards
Narrative theory: problem – people not living organisms
Root
Causes
Dynamic
Pressures
HAZARD
Unsafe
Conditions
Pressure and Release Model:
famine in Southern Sudan
Epidemiology and vulnerability
Attributable risk: we are all vulnerable to
climate change.
 Particular risk: some are more vulnerable
than others
 Therefore: the notion of differential
vulnerability

General and particular vulnerability

Making connections between
V = the general
V
= the particular
In connection with global environmental
change. The term ‘global’ masks the
particular local stresses and stressors.
Demeritt (2003) Challenging the
‘global’ in global warming.

“Their global scaling and universalizing appeal
conceal the uneven political economy of GHG
emissions by divorcing the problem of their
accumulation in the atmosphere from related social
and economic matters. Thus, "luxury" emissions of
GHGs from fossil fuel use in developed countries are
analysed in the same abstract and universal scientific
terms as "survival" emissions from agriculture in
developing countries. These universalizing
abstractions can then be used to legitimate the
specific political program of international emissions
trading and other climate change mitigation measures
in the warm and fuzzy glow of global citizenship”.
Issues of Scale
Figure 2. Scalar mapping of
the impact of the 1983
Krakatoa volcanic eruption.
Krakatoa-linked climate
change vulnerability (in a
general sense) had a global
reach. In a particular sense
people were differentially
vulnerable to, for example,
cold or crop failure.
X
A
Production
Consumption
Z
C
B
a
Distribution
Y
b
Figure 3. Actor Network Theory: Framing food systems (A,B,C)
(a) minus externalities (X,Y,Z) and (b) plus externalities (after Callon 1999). In the case of
Kloppenberg’s (1988) and Pollan’s (2003) unfolding analysis of hybrid corn in the US,
phenomena such as mass-urbanization, collapse of small-scale farming, over-production,
even obesity are externalized in the profit driven world of industrialized agriculture.
National economy
X
A
Factory
director
State
Local
State
C
B
Z
Y
Xn
Eg. Legal ethics
(Corporate negligence)
Yn
Eg. Medical ethics,
Democratic regime
Zn
Eg. Minamata Disease
victims, fishermen
a
Labour
b
Regional economy
c
Figure 4. Actor Network Theory: Framing contractual systems between (A: the
State, B: the local State, C: the firm producing waste methyl mercury) (a)minus externalities (X,Y,Z); (b) plus certain externalities; (c) plus other
externalities (Xn,Yn,Zn). Based on Minamata Disease case example.
Towards regional attribution. New
science=new methods=new theory







Only recently have climate modellers begun to focus on regional
attribution. Funding and problems of liability.
First papers out now: Karoly, D. et al. 2003. Science 14/11/03.
Human influence to North American climate. Surface temperature
changes.
Work on glacier retreat in Kazakhstan etc. Andes and Alps.
Work on UK floods of 2000. Insured loss of £35-50 million.
Probabilistic attribution. Atmospheric physics.
Work on Central European heatwave 2003. Hottest summer for at
least 500 years. 11,000 extra deaths first 2 wks August in France.
Univ. Bern. Average rise of 2.8°C 1998-2003. Paper to appear in
Nature.
All findings should be temperature-linked. Poor modelling of
precipitation. Problems of certainty.
The next step might be litigation.
Rights issues to consider
UN Declaration of Human Rights (1948): Article 25: 1. “Everyone has the
right to a standard of living adequate for health and well being . . .” No
right to clean, healthy environment.
 Distributive justice – John Rawls (1971)
-justice as fairness. ‘Moral persons are entitled to equal justice’ - equal
rights to equal basic liberties above regulating economic and social
inequalities. Opposed to Gandhi (1940) equal distrib.
Problems with Rawls: social justice focuses on material goods, not
agency/ decision-making power. Also, top-down idea. Who chooses who
is entitled. Iris Marion Young – Justice and the Politics of Difference
(1990)
 A theory of human need (Doyal and Gough 1991)
Relativist vs. universal understanding of human need. Universal goal =
avoidance of harm. Vulnerability = susceptibility to harm.
 Combine universal basic needs: physical health/critical automy with
relative appraisal of intermediate needs such as cultural skills.

(v)ulnerability linked to resilience

(v)ulnerability comes from lack of resilience
 Resilience implies:
Nurturing diversity and connectivity
Creating opportunities for self-organization
Learning to live with change and uncertainty
Adaptation involves capacity building with the aim of
enhancing resilience
Livelihoods approach

A livelihood: comprises the capabilities,
assets and activities required for a means of
living: a livelihood is sustainable [when it can]
cope and recover from stress and shocks,
maintain or enhance its capabilities and
assets, and provide sustainable livelihoods for
the next generation; and which contributes net
benefits to other livelihoods at local and global
levels in the long and short term’ (Chambers
and Conway 1992, pp.7-8).
Vulnerability and food security
matrices: exploring method
Actors
Farm
Labourer
Production
x
Transporter
Trader
Distribution
Consumption
x
X
x
X
x
Production
Distribution
Consumption
Conflict
X
X
Flood
X
x
HIV/AIDS
x
Stresses
x
GECAFS

Global Environmental Change and Food Systems

Sponsored by


International Human Dimensions Programme on Global
Environmental Change

International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme

World Climate Research Programme
Goal: To determine strategies to cope with the impacts
of global environmental change on food systems and
to assess the environmental and socioeconomic
consequences of adaptation responses.
GECAFS: in collaboration with:
Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations
 World Meteorological Organization of the
United Nations
 Consultative Group on International
Agricultural Research
 Stockholm Environment Institute

Ongoing EHB research contributing
to GECAFS arch
Literature review
 Methods papers: Expanded tool kit to
come into play. Actor-based matrix,
knowledge elicitation
 Monograph: “Towards a narrative theory
of climate change vulnerability”
 Development of a research agenda
 Need for case experience

Case studies: linking the global to
the local
Adaptation to heat stress on livestock
and fisheries in Africa
 Adaptation of storm surge activity in
Orissa and Andhra Pradesh
 Adaptation to diminishing glacial melt
water in Bhutan and Tajikistan

Summary
Conceptual underpinnings: narrative
rather than descriptive approaches.
 Criteria: a) both universal and relative
approaches to needs and vulnerability;
b) theorized connection between global
climate forcing and local impacts.
 Case examples: a) Pressure Release
Model; b) Actor Network Theory – the
problem of framing within systems.
