The Future of Technology Foresight
in the South East Asia Region
Introduction to Foresight
Professor Ron Johnston
Executive Director
Australian Centre for Innovation
University of Sydney
October 2007
Australian Centre for Innovation
Kuala Lumpur 30-31.10.2007
The Future of Technology Foresight
in the South East Asia Region
Why the Need for Foresight?
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Speed of change
Complexity
Uncertainty
Shifting assumptions
Mega-consequences
Inter-connectedness
Volume of available knowledge
Australian Centre for Innovation
Kuala Lumpur 30-31.10.2007
The Future of Technology Foresight
in the South East Asia Region
Different Views of the Future
Extrapolative - tomorrow is decided by today
Cyclic – things go around
Evolutionary – things get better
‘Great Man’-driven – analyse the leaders
Culturally determined – analyse values and
beliefs
 Fatalistic – que sera sera
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Australian Centre for Innovation
Kuala Lumpur 30-31.10.2007
The Future of Technology Foresight
in the South East Asia Region
Definitions of Foresight
 Foresight involves systematic attempts to look
into the future of science, technology, society
and the economy, and their interactions, in
order to promote social, economic and
environmental benefit. (APEC-CTF)
 Foresight is a process of anticipating and
managing change. It is a systematic and
participatory approach to developing effective
strategies and policies for the medium- to
longer term future. (APEC-CTF)
Australian Centre for Innovation
Kuala Lumpur 30-31.10.2007
The Future of Technology Foresight
in the South East Asia Region
Definitions of Foresight – 2
 Foresight is a systematic, participatory, futureintelligence-gathering and medium-to-longterm vision-building process aimed at presentday decisions and mobilising joint actions.
(IPTS - FORLEARN)
 Foresight is a means of systematically
addressing the future, and acting on it. (R.
Johnston)
Australian Centre for Innovation
Kuala Lumpur 30-31.10.2007
The Future of Technology Foresight
in the South East Asia Region
A process of systematic collective reasoning about the future
Thinking the Future
•involving the key
stakeholders
•Results are
disseminated and
discussed among
a wide audience
FORESIGHT
Open
Participatory
Action oriented
Debating the Future
Australian Centre for Innovation
not predicting a predetermined future but
exploring how the
future might evolve in
different ways
depending on the
actions of various
players and decisions
taken ‘today’.
Shaping the Future
Not only analysing or contemplating
future developments but supporting
Kuala Lumpur 30-31.10.2007
actors in actively shaping the future
The Future of Technology Foresight
in the South East Asia Region
Core Assumptions
 Future oriented thinking is vital for any forward
planning, decision-making or policy development to
meet future challenges
 Foresight enhances such thinking by gathering strategic
anticipatory intelligence
 There are a variety of tools available to conduct
foresight. Each has a different basis, different strengths
and limitations, and different applicability.
 Foresight is most effective where it is directly linked to
existing planning and decision-making tools which are
addressing specific issues of the future.
Australian Centre for Innovation
Kuala Lumpur 30-31.10.2007
The Future of Technology Foresight
in the South East Asia Region
Objectives of Foresight Exercises
 Gathering intelligence on possible longer-term
developments and how these may interact
with the decisions made today
 Providing strategic visions and creating a
shared sense of commitment to these visions
among participants/stakeholders
 Building networks that bring together people
from different sectors and institutions
 Providing alerts on major future risks and
opportunities
Australian Centre for Innovation
Kuala Lumpur 30-31.10.2007
The Future of Technology Foresight
in the South East Asia Region
Fields of Application of Foresight
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Emerging technologies
Research priorities
Planning for industry sectors
Natural resource management
Business strategy
Driving innovation into a supply-chain
Regional economic development
Education
Australian Centre for Innovation
Kuala Lumpur 30-31.10.2007
The Future of Technology Foresight
in the South East Asia Region
Some Recent Foresight Projects
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The Millennium Project of the American Council for the United
Nations University
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (EU) Enlargement
Project
IPTS - detailed case studies of about 30 major foresight exercises in
Europe
Japanese National Institute for Science and Technology Policy 4-yearly
report
APEC Center for Technology Foresight (APEC-CTF) – Post-Genomics
ASEAN Technology Foresight and Scan Project
UNIDO - training programs in South America and Eastern Europe
Foresight projects have also become embedded processes associated
with emerging technologies.
Australian Centre for Innovation
Kuala Lumpur 30-31.10.2007
The Future of Technology Foresight
in the South East Asia Region
Methods of Foresight - 3 categories
 Expert opinion (Delphi) and scenario building
emphasise human participation
 Modelling and morphological analysis
emphasises the use of analytic tools, which
are increasingly computer-based
 Scanning/monitoring and trend extrapolation
emphasise the extent to which the future is
determined by the conditions of the present
Australian Centre for Innovation
Kuala Lumpur 30-31.10.2007
The Future of Technology Foresight
in the South East Asia Region
Australian Centre for Innovation
Kuala Lumpur 30-31.10.2007
The Future of Technology Foresight
in the South East Asia Region
Australian Centre for Innovation
Kuala Lumpur 30-31.10.2007
The Future of Technology Foresight
in the South East Asia Region
Evolution of Foresight
 Emphasis – from methods to outcomes and policy
 Tool – from specialised to embedded - gradual adoption as a
standard management tool
 Focus – from national to regional, sectoral, local and within
organisations and communities
 Application – from priority-setting for public research to planning
and decision-making, innovation, technology transfer
 Scope – from technological to socio-economic outcomes
 Scale - from ‘macro’ to ‘meso’ and ‘micro’
 Increasingly IT-enabled
 Growth in foresight infrastructure capacity
Australian Centre for Innovation
Kuala Lumpur 30-31.10.2007
The Future of Technology Foresight
in the South East Asia Region
Lessons for Key Technology Identification
through Foresight
1. In Western predominantly market economies
(eg US, UK, Germany) identification of
potential key technologies operates as a signal
and information to which private sector
corporations can respond.
2. In Eastern more planned economies (eg
Japan, Korea) investment in research and
technology development can be more
explicitly steered through foresight studies.
Australian Centre for Innovation
Kuala Lumpur 30-31.10.2007
The Future of Technology Foresight
in the South East Asia Region
And there are plenty of resources to assist you:
 UNIDO Foresight Manual – unido.org
 AC-UNU State of the Future Reports –
acunu.org
 FORLEARN - IPTS Foresight Training Manual –
forlearn.jrc.es
 European Foresight Monitoring Network – a
database of international foresight studies –
efmn.info
Australian Centre for Innovation
Kuala Lumpur 30-31.10.2007