THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF ZANZIBAR
(SUZA)
Development Studies
DS 301 for diploma students third year.
Prepared by: Mr. Abdulrahman Mustafa Nahoda
1
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
• The Demographic Transition model helps to
explain the changes that occur in population
growth as a society’s culture changes. In its
simplest form, it identifies four stages of
development. Each stage links cultural
development to population change.
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
• Stage 1 is marked by high birth and death
rates. Population changes slightly, but there is
little growth. Economic activity and other
aspects of culture are traditional. This is them
stage in which humans existed throughout
most of history.
• Today, only a few very remote people continue
to exist in Stage 1.
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
• In Stage 2, death rates begin to drop in
response to increased food production and
improvements in hygiene and medicine. Birth
rates, however, remain steady or even
increase slightly. Populations begin to grow. In
the West, this began with the Industrial
Revolution around 1800.
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
• In Stage 3, death rates continue to drop at a
sharp rate, and birth rates begin a slow
decline. With many more births than deaths,
and life expectancy greatly expanding because
of improved medicine and hygiene,
population soars.
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
• In Stage 4, births and deaths begin to
equalize, resulting in a stable population.
When the two are equal, as is happening in
much of the developed world, zero population
growth (ZPG) is achieved. Any additional
population growth must come from either an
increase in the birth rate or from immigration.
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
Problems with the Demographic
Transition Model
• based on European experience, assumes all
countries will progress to complete
industrialization
• many countries reducing growth rate
dramatically without increase in wealth – TV
and family planning seem to be at work
• on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in
stage 2 or stage 3, particularly in Sub-Saharan
Africa and Middle East
Population theories
Malthus, Boserup and the Club of
Rome
Thomas Malthus
• 1766-1834. Born near Guildford!
• Wrote ‘An essay in the First Principle of
population’ first published in 1798
• Debatable whether the principles of Malthus
two hundred years ago (that were very
revolutionary and controversial) have any
relevance to the modern world.
• The world population in 1798 was at nine
million people. We have now passed the six
billion mark.
The Core Principles of Malthus:
¤ Food is necessary for human existence
¤ Human population tends to grow faster than the
power in the earth to produce subsistence
¤ The effects of these two unequal powers must be kept
equal
¤ Since humans tend not to limit their population size
voluntarily - “preventive checks” in Malthus’
terminology.
Malthus recognised that population if unchecked,
grows at a geometric rate:
1
2
4 8
16
32
However, food only increases at an arithmetic
rate, as land is finite.
1 2 3 4 5 6
and therefore he said….
Malthusian Catastrophe
food
population
TIME
War,
famine,
disease.
CHECKS
Malthus suggested that once this ceiling (catastrophe)
had been reached, further growth in population would
be prevented by negative and positive checks. He saw
the checks as a natural method of population control.
They can be split up into 3 groups….
Negative checks (decreased birth rate)….
Negative Checks were used to limit the population
growth. It included abstinence/ postponement of
marriage which lowered the fertility rate.
• Malthus favoured moral restraint (including late
marriage and sexual abstinence) as a check on
population growth. However, it is worth noting that
Malthus proposed this only for the working and poor
classes!
Positive checks (increased death rate)
• Positive Checks were ways to reduce
population size by events such as famine,
disease, war - increasing the mortality rate and
reducing life expectancy.
But…..
• Technological improvements which he could
not have foreseen
• The increased amount of cropland due to
irrigation
• Reduced population growth as countries move
through the DTM
Karl Marx 1867
• Malthus had placed the blame for over
population and poverty on the individual
member of the society who succumbed to
their sexual urges.
• Malthus had failed to anticipate the full
possibilities of industrial revolution, especially
technological advances in agriculture.
• The issue is not over population but under
population.
Karl Marx 1867
• Marx believe that the system of capitalism had
the capacity to produce food and other
necessities for indefinitely expanding population.
• It was only socialism unequal distribution of
wealth that made it seem that there had to be a
natural limit on population.
• The system of property realations in capitalism
skewed production away from meeting the need
of poor people and toward increasing the
accumulation of capital.
Karl Marx 1867
• Capitalist further benefited from the fact that
surplus population created competition for
job, thus driving down wages and maximizing
profit
• The solution is a new social order especially
on the economic structure of the society. And
not in moral restraint as was proposed by
Malthus
The Cairo Conference
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
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Sept 1994 – 180 govt’s and hundreds of NGO’s
Ended with a 20 yr plan
Goals:
Increase investment in women's reproductive
health
Reducing number of unsafe abortions
Eliminate female genital mutilation
Enforce marriage age laws
Improve sex education
Increase opportunities for women
References
• Calhoun, Craig; Light, Donald & Keller, Suzanne
(1994) Sociology. McGrawHill. USA
• Gregory, Derek et al. (2009) The Dictionary of Human
Geography: A John Wiley & Sons. U.K
• Gritzner, Charles F. (2009) The Human Population.
Chelsea House. New York
• Malthus, Thomas (1798) An Essay on the principle of
population. Johnson. London