Time Management
(Part 9)
Dr.Çağatay ÜNDEĞER
Instructor
Bilkent University, Computer Engineering
Middle East Technical University, Game Technologies
&
General Manager
SimBT Inc.
e-mail : undeger@simbt.com.tr
CS-413
Bilgisayar Mühendisliği Bölümü – Bilkent Üniversitesi – Fall 2009
1
Time Management
• Project Management Components
(knowledge areas)
– Project Integration Management
– Project Scope Management
– Project Time Management
– Project Cost Management
– Project Human Resource Management
– Project Communication Management
– Project Quality Management
– Project Risk Management
– Project Procurement Management
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Time Management
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Introduction
Activity Definition
Activity Sequencing
Activity Duration Estimation
Schedule Development
Schedule Control
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Time Management
(Introduction)
• Includes the process required to ensure
timely completion of project.
• Follows a “divide and conquer” strategy of
breaking down a project into components that
can be managed and controlled more easily.
• Once components are determined,
– A sequence for doing the work tasks
(schedule) is established,
– Resources are assigned to those tasks,
– Durations of tasks are estimated.
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Time Management
(Introduction)
• A project schedule generally created early in
the project,
– During initiation and planning.
• However,
– Schedules are used in execution phases to
help development; and
– They will force development team to met
some timing constraints (milestones).
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Time Management
(Introduction)
• Schedules (except some milestones) may
frequently need to be updated as the project
progress.
• As project moves forward,
– Estimations become more accurate.
• This is reffered as cone of uncertainty [Barry
Boehm 1981].
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Time Management
(Introduction)
• Cone of uncertainty:
– A progressively more detailed and accurate
projection of project schedule and duration
as project deliverables and activities are
specified in more detail.
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Cone of uncertainty from Boehm
2
1
0.5
0.1
Feasibility
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Concept
Operation
Requirements
Specification
Product
Design
Detail
Specification
Accepted
Software
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Time Management
(Introduction)
• According to PMI;
– At very early phases:
• Magnitude estimates: +75% -25%.
– After components are specified in more
details, budget is estimated:
• Budgetary estimates: +25% -10%.
– When project resources and activities are
highly detailed:
• Definite estimates: +10% -5%.
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Time Management
(Major Phases)
• Activity Definition:
– Identifying specific activities that must be
performed to produce project deliverables.
• Activity Sequencing:
– Identifying and documenting interactivity
dependencies.
• Activity Duration Estimation:
– Estimating the number of work periods required to
complete individual activities.
• Schedule Development:
– Analyzing activity sequences, activity durations,
and resource requirements to create a schedule.
• Schedule Control:
– Controlling changes to project schedule.
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Time Management
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Introduction
Activity Definition
Activity Sequencing
Activity Duration Estimation
Schedule Development
Schedule Control
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Activity Definition
(Introduction)
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Involves identifying and documenting
specific activities that must be performed to
produce deliverables and sub-deliverables
in work breakdown structures.
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Activity Definition
(Introduction)
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Work breakdown structures:
– Deliverable-Oriented:
• Deliverables are listed in WBS.
– Task-Oriented:
• Tasks to produce deliverables are
listed in WBS.
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Activity Definition
(Introduction)
•
If WBS is deliverable-oriented,
– Activity definition generates activities for
creating deliverables defined in WBS.
– So output is called the activity list.
• If WBS is task-oriented,
– Activity definition is performed in
coordination with scope definition to
determine both deliverables and tasks in
WBS.
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Activity Definition
(Inputs)
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Work breakdown structure
Scope statement
Historical information
Constraints
Assumptions
Expert judgement
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Activity Definition
(Inputs)
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Work breakdown structure:
– A deliverable-oriented WBS
• Scope statement:
– Contains project objectives.
• Historical information:
– Historical information collected in
previous projects could be helpful for
doing estimations.
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Activity Definition
(Inputs)
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Constraints:
– Factors limiting development options.
• Assumptions:
– Factors that are accepted as true.
• Expert judgement:
– Experts could be very useful in clarifying
inputs.
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Activity Definition
(Tools & Techniques)
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Templates
Decomposition
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Activity Definition
(Tools & Techniques)
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Templates:
– An activity list from a previous project can
be used as a template for the new
project.
– These templates, may also include;
• Resource skills and
• Required hours of effort for common
activities.
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Activity Definition
(Tools & Techniques)
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Decomposition:
– Involves sub-dividing project work
packages into smaller components.
– Final outputs should be described as
activities, not as deliverables.
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Activity Definition
(Tools & Techniques)
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Decomposition:
– Decompose an activity until the activity;
• Can be performed by one person or a
well-defined group;
• Has a single, clearly identifiable
deliverable;
• Has a known method or technique;
• Has well-defined predecessor and
successor steps;
• Is measurable so that level of
completion can be determined.
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Activity Definition
(Tools & Techniques)
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Decomposition:
– Rolling wave planning:
• Often, activities for the next few steps
can be planned at a sufficient level of
detail.
• In this case, rolling wave planning
technique is used.
• Closest activities are planned at a
detailed level;
• Activities farther in the future are
planned only at a general level.
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Activity Definition
(Outputs)
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Activity list
Supporting detail
Work breakdown structure updates
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Activity Definition
(Outputs)
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Activity list:
– Includes all activities that will be
performed within the project.
– Should be an extention to WBS if a
delivery-oriented WBS is used.
– Should be clear enough to let team
members understand the content.
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Activity Definition
(Outputs)
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Supporting detail:
– Includes all identified constraint and
assumptions, and other related details.
• Work breakdown structure updates:
– Any missing deliverable identified during
the activity definition should be integrated
to WBS.
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Time Management
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Introduction
Activity Definition
Activity Sequencing
Activity Duration Estimation
Schedule Development
Schedule Control
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Activity Sequencing
(Introduction)
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Involves identifying and documenting
interactivity logical relationships.
Activities must be sequenced accurately to
support later development of realistic and
achievable schedule.
In this phase, a network diagram will be
generated to identify sequence.
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Activity Sequencing
(Inputs)
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Activity list
Product description
Mandatory dependencies
Discretionary dependencies
External dependencies
Milestones
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Activity Sequencing
(Inputs)
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Activity list:
– List of activities for producing
deliverables.
• Product description:
– Product characteristics may affect
sequencing,
– So they should be reviewed to ensure
accuracy.
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Activity Sequencing
(Inputs)
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Mandatory dependencies:
– Those that are inherent in the nature of
work being done.
– For instance, implementation should be
started before testing.
– Also called hard logic.
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Activity Sequencing
(Inputs)
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Discretionary dependencies:
– Those that are defined by the project
management team.
– Should be used with care,
• Since they may limit later scheduling
options.
– Also called;
• Soft logic,
• Preferred logic or
• Preferential logic.
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Activity Sequencing
(Inputs)
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External dependencies:
– Those that involve a relationship
between project activities and nonproject
activities.
– For instance, programming language
software should be delivered before
implementation starts.
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Activity Sequencing
(Inputs)
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Milestones:
– Deadlines that are forced by the
stakeholders’ requirements.
– Milestone events need to be part of
activity sequencing to assure that
requirements for meeting milestones are
met.
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Activity Sequencing
(Tools & Techniques)
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Precedence diagramming method (PDM)
Arrow diagramming method (ADM)
Conditional diagramming method
Network templates
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Activity Sequencing
(Tools & Techniques)
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Precedence diagramming method (PDM):
– A method of constructing a project
network diagram;
• That uses boxes or rectangles (nodes)
to represent activities, and
• Connects them with arrows that show
dependencies.
A
Dummy node
Dummy node
F
Start
B
C
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D
E
End
G
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Activity Sequencing
(Tools & Techniques)
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Precedence diagramming method (PDM):
– Has the ability to illustrate four types of
task dependencies among activities.
– Types of dependencies:
• Finish-to-start
• Start-to-start
• Finish-to-finish
• Start-to-finish
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Activity Sequencing
(Tools & Techniques)
•
Precedence diagramming method (PDM):
– Finish-to-start:
• One activity cannot start until another
activity has been completed.
• For instance, programmers cannot
start programming until programming
language has been chosen.
• The most commonly used logical
relationship type.
P.L. chosen
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Programming
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Activity Sequencing
(Tools & Techniques)
•
Precedence diagramming method (PDM):
– Start-to-start:
• The start of sucessor depends on the
start of predecessor.
• For instance, programming cannot
start until some portion of program
design is decided on.
Designing
Programming
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Activity Sequencing
(Tools & Techniques)
•
Precedence diagramming method (PDM):
– Finish-to-finish:
• Completion of successor activity
depends on the completion of the
predecessor.
• For instance, testing a system cannot
be finished until programming is
completed.
Programming
Testing
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Activity Sequencing
(Tools & Techniques)
•
Precedence diagramming method (PDM):
– Start-to-finish:
• Completion of the successor activity
depends on the beginning of the
predecessor.
• For instance, backuping first version
of code segment cannot be completed
until programming begins.
• Rarely used.
Programming
Backuping code
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Activity Sequencing
(Tools & Techniques)
•
Arrow diagramming method (ADM):
– Another network diagramming technique
that represents project activities as
arrows and connects them at nodes to
show their dependencies.
C=1
4
2
H=5
A=2
D=1
1
E=5
B=3
I=3
7
G=2
3
J=4
F=2
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5
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Activity Sequencing
(Tools & Techniques)
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Arrow diagramming method (ADM):
– Uses only finish-to-start dependencies.
– May require use of dummy activities to
define all logical relationships correctly.
2
C
4
A
1
E
6
Dummy activity
B
5
3
F
D
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Activity Sequencing
(Tools & Techniques)
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Conditional diagramming method:
– Used for defining nonsequential activities
such as conditional branches and loops.
Implementation
Completed?
Perform testing
Start
implementation
No
Yes
End
implementation
Perform implementation
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Activity Sequencing
(Tools & Techniques)
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Network templates:
– Standardized networks can be used to
accelarate preparation of network
diagrams.
– Portions of networks are offen reffered to
as subnets or fragnets.
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Activity Sequencing
(Outputs)
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Project network diagram
Activity list updates
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Activity Sequencing
(Outputs)
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Project network diagram:
– May include full project details or have
summary activities.
– Any unusual sequence should be fully
described.
• Activity list updates:
– Activity definition process may generate
updates to activity lists.
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Time Management
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Introduction
Activity Definition
Activity Sequencing
Activity Duration Estimation
Schedule Development
Schedule Control
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Introduction)
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Process of taking information on project
scope and resources, and
– Then developing durations for input to
schedules.
• Inputs for estimates of a duration typically
originate from person or group on project
team who is most familiar with the nature of
a specific activity.
• Estimates are often progressively
elaborated.
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Introduction)
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Estimating number of work periods required
to complete an activity will often require
consideration of elapsed time.
– Weekends and holidays should be
considered.
– For instance,
• If a task requires 3 days of work, but
first day begins on Friday,
• Then elapsed time will be 5 days
because of weekend.
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Inputs)
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Activity list
Constaints
Assumptions
Resource requirements
Resource capabilities
Historical information
Identified risks
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Inputs)
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Activity list:
– List of activities for producing
deliverables.
• Constaints:
– Factors limiting the development options.
• Assumptions:
– Factors that are accepted as true.
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Inputs)
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Resource requirements:
– Duration of most activities will be
significantly influenced by the resources
assigned to them.
– For instance;
• Allocating two people to a task may
halve the time required to complete
the task.
• Allocating a half-time person to a task
may double the time required to
complete task.
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Inputs)
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Resource requirements:
– Increasing number of personnel assigned
to a task does not necessarily mean
reducing the time linearly.
– Because additional resources will
increase communication overload.
– Also some tasks may not be performed in
parallel.
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Inputs)
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Resource capabilities:
– Duration of most activities will be
significantly affected by the capabilities of
human and material resources assigned
to them.
– For instance, assigning an experienced
person to a task will reduce the time
required to complete the task.
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Inputs)
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Historical information:
– Likely durations of activities can be
estimated from historical information.
– Possible sources:
• Project files
• Commercial duration estimation
databases
• Project team knowledge
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Inputs)
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Historical information:
– Possible sources:
• Project files:
– Records of previous projects that
the organizations in the current
project were involved in.
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Inputs)
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Historical information:
– Possible sources:
• Commercial duration estimation
databases:
– Some historical information that
could be available commercially
(e.g. How long a governmental
agency usually takes to respond to
certain types of requests).
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Inputs)
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Historical information:
– Possible sources:
• Project team knowledge:
– Individual members of team may
» Remember previous actuals or
estimates, and
» Use their experience.
– These estimations are generally
less reliable than documented
results.
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Inputs)
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Identified risks:
– Project team should consider identified
risks when producing duration estimates.
– Since risks can have significant influence
on durations.
– Revise baseline duration estimations for
activities having risks with high
probability of impact.
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Tools & Techniques)
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Expert judgement
Analogous estimating
Quantitatively based durations
Reserve time (contingency)
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Tools & Techniques)
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Expert judgement:
– Durations are often difficult to estimate
Because of number of factors that can
influence them.
– Expert judgement should be used if
possible, else it would be risky.
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Tools & Techniques)
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Analogous estimating:
– Means using actual duration of a
previous, similar activity as the basis for
estimating duration of a future activity.
– Also called top-down estimating.
– A form of expert judgement.
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Tools & Techniques)
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Quantitatively based durations:
– Quantities to be performed for each work
category, when multiplied by productivity
unit rate, can be used to estimate activity
durations ( Quantity x Productivity )
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Quantities: e.g. number of drawings,
number of functions.
Productivity unit rate: e.g. hours per
drawing, hours per function.
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Tools & Techniques)
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Reserve time (contingency):
– To reduce risks,
• Project team may add some extra time
frame to risky activity durations or
elsewhere in schedule.
– This extra time is called;
• Time reserve,
• Contingency or
• Buffer.
– Can be either in percentage or a fixed
amount.
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Outputs)
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Activity duration estimates
Basis of estimates
Activity list updates
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Outputs)
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Activity duration estimates:
– Should always include some indication of
range of possible results.
– For instance,
• With high probability, activity will take
2 weeks ±2 days.
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Activity Duration Estimation
(Outputs)
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Basis of estimates:
– Assumptions made in developing
estimates must be documented.
• Activity list updates:
– Process may generate updates to activity
lists.
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Introduction
Activity Definition
Activity Sequencing
Activity Duration Estimation
Schedule Development
Schedule Control
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Schedule Development
(Introduction)
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Means determining start and finish dates for
project activities.
Schedule development process must often
be iterated a number of times prior to
determination of final project schedule.
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Schedule Development
(Inputs)
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Project network diagram
Activity duration estimations
Resource requirements
Resource pool description
Calenders
Constraints
Assumptions
Leads and lags
Risk management plan
Activity attributes
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Schedule Development
(Inputs)
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Project network diagram:
– Shows activity sequencing.
• Activity duration estimations:
– Shows number of work periods required
for each activity.
• Resource requirements:
– Include number of resources assigned to
tasks.
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Schedule Development
(Inputs)
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Resource pool description:
– Stores knowledge of what resources will
be available at what times and in what
patterns.
– For instance, a shared or critical
resources can be difficult to schedule
• Since their availability may be highly
variable.
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Schedule Development
(Inputs)
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Resource pool description:
– Amount of detail may vary in time.
– For instance,
• For preliminary schedule,
– One may only need to know
number of consultants required.
• For final schedule,
– One may need to know which
specific consultants are required.
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Schedule Development
(Inputs)
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Calenders:
– Project and resource calenders identify
periods when work is allowed.
– Project calenders affect all resources
(e.g. 5 day work in a week).
– Resource calenders affect a specific
resource or a category of resources (e.g.
A staff may be on vacation, a half-time
staff).
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Schedule Development
(Inputs)
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Constraints:
– Factors that will limit the development
options.
– Major time constraints:
• Imposed dates
• Key events or milestones
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Schedule Development
(Inputs)
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Constraints:
– Major time constraints:
• Imposed dates:
– Restrics activities as to;
» Start no earlier than a specific
date or
» Finish no later than a specific
date.
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Schedule Development
(Inputs)
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Constraints:
– Major time constraints:
• Key events or milestones:
– Completion of certain deliverables by a
specific date may be requested
» By customer, sponsor or Other
stakeholders.
– Once scheduled,
» These days become expected, and
» Often may be moved with great
difficulty.
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Schedule Development
(Inputs)
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Assumptions:
– Factors that are accepted as true.
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Schedule Development
(Inputs)
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Lead time:
– Time required by one task before another
task can begin.
– For instance, in start-to-start relation,
• Testing can only be started after some
portion of code is implemented.
Implementation
Testing
Lead time
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Development
Quality Inspection
Lead time
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Schedule Development
(Inputs)
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Lag time:
– Time delay between completion of one
task and start of its successor.
– For instance, in finish-to-start relation,
• Testing can only be started after
implemention and compiling code are
completed.
Implementation
Testing
Lag time (Compiling)
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Schedule Development
(Inputs)
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Risk management plan:
– A plan for detecting, monitoring risks and
minimizing their impacts.
• Activity attributes:
– Attributes of activities including;
• Responsibility (who),
• Geographic area or building (where),
• WBS classification (which branch),
• Activity type (other details),
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Schedule Development
(Tools & Techniques)
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Matematical analysis
Duration compression
Simulation
Resource leveling
Project management software
Coding structure
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Schedule Development
(Tools & Techniques)
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Matematical analysis:
– Involves calculating;
• Theoretical early and late start and
finish dates for all project activities
– Without regard for any resource
pool limitations.
– Result is not a schedule,
• But indicate time periods within which
activity could be scheduled
– Given resource limits and other
known constraints.
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Schedule Development
(Tools & Techniques)
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Matematical analysis:
– Most widely known techniques:
• Critical path method (CPM)
• Graphical evaluation and review
technique (GERT)
• Program Evaluation and Review
Technique (PERT)
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Schedule Development
(Tools & Techniques)
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Matematical analysis:
– Critical path method (CPM):
• Calculates a single, deterministic early
and late start and finish date for each
activity;
• Based on deterministic network logic
and duration estimates.
Early finish
Late start
Early start
1
Late finish
3
5
6
D=1
6
2
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4
7
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Schedule Development
(Tools & Techniques)
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Matematical analysis:
– Graphical evaluation and review
technique (GERT):
• A network analysis technique that
allows probabilistic network logic and
duration estimates.
• Nowadays, not considered as a
generally accepted and used
scheduling technique.
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Schedule Development
(Tools & Techniques)
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Matematical analysis:
– Program Evaluation and Review
Technique (PERT):
• Uses a weighted average duration
estimate to calculate activity durations.
• Nowadays, seldomly used.
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Schedule Development
(Tools & Techniques)
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Matematical analysis:
– Program Evaluation and Review Technique
(PERT):
•
Optimistic, most likely and pessimistic
durations are used.
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Schedule Development
(Tools & Techniques)
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Duration compression:
– A special case of mathematical analysis;
• That looks for ways to shorten project
schedule.
– Techniques:
• Crashing
• Fast tracking
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Schedule Development
(Tools & Techniques)
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Duration compression:
– Crashing:
• Dedicating extra resources to an
activity in an attempt to finish activity
sooner than its normal schedule.
• For example, hiring an extra
personnel for an activity.
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Schedule Development
(Tools & Techniques)
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Duration compression:
– Fast tracking:
• Means performing activities in parallel
that would normally be done in
sequence.
• For instance,
– Starting to write code before design
is completed.
• Often results in rework and usually
increases risks.
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Schedule Development
(Tools & Techniques)
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Simulation:
– A process of calculating different
scenarios and their effects on the project
schedule.
– Scenarios, Project and activity durations,
are generated using different
assumptions, constraints and resource
allocations.
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Schedule Development
(Tools & Techniques)
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Simulation:
– Common used types are:
• Monte Carlo simulations
• What-if analysis.
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Schedule Development
(Tools & Techniques)
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Simulation:
– Monte Carlo simulations:
• Probabilistic analysis used to calculate
a distribution of likely results.
• In our case, we analyze likely task and
project durations.
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Schedule Development
(Tools & Techniques)
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Simulation:
– What-if analysis:
• A process of evaluating alternative
scenarios
– By observing how changes to
selected factors affect other factors
and outcomes.
• For instance, asks “what if a major
component for a system is delayed”.
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Schedule Development
(Tools & Techniques)
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Simulation:
– What-if analysis:
• Tries to assess the feasibility of
schedule under unsuitable conditions.
• Helps preparing contingency/response
plans for risks.
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Schedule Development
(Tools & Techniques)
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Resource leveling:
– Any form of network analysis where
resource management issues drive
scheduling decisions.
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(Tools & Techniques)
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Resource leveling:
– Matematical analysis produce early-start
schedules,
• But these schedules may not be
feasible during some periods of time
because of high resource
requirements that exceeded available
amount within the project.
– Resource leveling techniques reschedule
activites in order to reduce resource
requirements.
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Schedule Development
(Tools & Techniques)
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Resource leveling:
– For instance,
• If we have one person and two tasks
that were scheduled at the same time,
• Resource leveling may push one of
the tasks further in the future.
Implementing A
Implementing B
Initial schedule
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Implementing A
Implementing B
Resource leveled schedule
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Resource leveling:
– Allocate scare resource to critical path
activities first approach can be applied;
• To develop a schedule that reflects
such contraints.
– Often results in a project duration longer
than the preliminary schedule.
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Schedule Development
(Tools & Techniques)
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Project management software:
– Widely used to assist with schedule
development.
– These products automate calculation of
matematical analysis and resource
leveling,
– Therefore allow rapid consideration of
schedule alternatives.
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Schedule Development
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Coding structure:
– Use coding structures to help identifying,
sorting, categorizing activities.
– For instance,
• Code:
– Project phase,
– Activity responsibility,
– Schedule level, etc.
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Schedule Development
(Outputs)
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Project schedule
Supporting detail
Schedule management plan
Resource requirement updates
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Schedule Development
(Outputs)
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Project schedule:
– Includes at least planned start and
expected finish dates for each activity.
– Remains preliminary until resource
assignments are confirmed.
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Schedule Development
(Outputs)
•
Supporting detail:
– Includes at least documentation of all
identified constraints and assumptions.
– For instance;
• Resource histograms
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Alternative schedules
Schedule contingency reserves
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Schedule Development
(Outputs)
•
Schedule management plan:
– Defines how changes to schedule will be
managed.
• Resource requirement updates:
– Resource leveling may have significant
effects on resource requiements.
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Time Management
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•
•
•
•
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Introduction
Activity Definition
Activity Sequencing
Activity Duration Estimation
Schedule Development
Schedule Control
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Schedule Control
(Introduction)
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Influencing factors that create schedule
changes to ensure that changes are agreed
upon.
Determining that schedule has changed.
Managining actual changes when and as
they occur.
Should be integrated with other control
processes (e.g. integration change control,
scope change control...).
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Schedule Control
(Inputs)
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Project schedule
Performance reports
Change requests
Schedule management plan
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Schedule Control
(Inputs)
•
Project schedule:
– The approved project schedule is called
the schedule baseline.
– Basis for measuring and reporting project
performance.
• Performance reports:
– Provide information on schedule
performance.
– For instance, which dates have been met
and which have not.
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Schedule Control
(Inputs)
•
Change requests:
– May occur in many forms
– May require extending schedule or
– May allow accelerating it.
• Schedule management plan:
– Defines how changes to schedule will be
managed.
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Schedule Control
(Tools & Techniques)
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•
•
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Schedule change control system
Performance measurement
Additional planning
Project management software
Variance analysis
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Schedule Control
(Tools & Techniques)
•
Schedule change control system:
– A system that defines procedures by
which project schedule may be changed.
– Includes tracking systems, paperwork...
• Performance measurement:
– Any technique to asses magnitude of
variations that occur.
– Helps to decide if schedule variations
requires corrective actions.
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Schedule Control
(Tools & Techniques)
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Additional planning:
– If any changes are required on schedule,
• Includes revising activity durations,
activity sequences, and alternative
schedules.
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Schedule Control
(Tools & Techniques)
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Project management software:
– Very useful for;
• Tracking planned dates versus actual
dates,
• Forecasting effects of schedule
changes.
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Schedule Control
(Tools & Techniques)
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Variance analysis:
– During schedule monitoring, regularly
performing variance analysis is
important.
– Includes comparison of planned and
actual or forcast start and finish dates
• In order to see affects of variations.
– Particular attention should be given to
critical and sub-critical activities.
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Schedule Control
(Outputs)
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Schedule updates
Corrective actions
Lessons learned
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Schedule Control
(Outputs)
•
Schedule updates:
– Any modification to schedule information.
– Approved schedule updates are called
revisions.
• Corrective actions:
– Anything done to bring expected future
performance in line with baseline
schedule.
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Schedule Control
(Outputs)
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Lessons learned:
– Causes of variances,
– Reasoning behind corrective actions,
– Other types of lessons learned should be
documented for the future use.
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