SPRING 2014 EESC G9910 Atmospheric Science Seminar Fri 9:15-10:45 Comer 1st Floor Seminar Room Jan 24, 2014: Organizational Meeting and Overview (IPCC process; report highlights) IPCC AR5 WG1 Report: Course Information Motivating questions: What are the key findings? On what evidence are they based? Where are there critical knowledge gaps? FULL FINAL REPORT WILL POST JAN 30. Final SPM is posted: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ Sign up on email list (circulating) • receive course emails Access to galley proof version of chapter for next week cannot be publicly distributed: www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~amfiore/temp/Ch1.pdf Supplemental readings at course website: www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~amfiore/eescG9910.html Course participation a) Sign up for presentation – think about it so we can start assigning by end of class a) All are welcome to present, students are given first priority in choosing chapters. Schedule with names will be on course website b) credit options: 1 point (discussion only) 2 points (discussion + presentation) 3 points (discussion + presentation + paper) We welcome involvement from the full LDEO community. Feel free to join us whenever possible. Class Schedule: 14 chapters in 13 weeks 1/31/14 2/7/14 2/14/14 2/21/14 3/7/14 2/28/14 3/14/14 3/28/14 4/4/14 4/11/14 4/18/14 4/25/14 5/2/14 Guidance on presentations and final paper (additional details posted on course website) Presentations: focus on the figures and the stories they tell. • Plan on presenting ~15-20 figures per class 2 options for final Papers (8 page max): Option #1: Choose a “hot” research area topic and critically assess the new findings since the IPCC AR5 WG1 publication freeze date (March 15, 2013). How should the 2013 report be updated in light of these new findings? Option #2: Identify a critical knowledge gap, either explicitly discussed in the report or one that you feel should have been. Write a paper or a research proposal describing the work needed to fill this gap. The rest of today 1. A little background on the IPCC process, from AR4AR5 -- slides c/o Thomas Stocker University of Bern, Switzerland, IPCC WG1 co-chair – with Qin Dahe 2. Major highlights from the report -- slides c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, Science Director, WG1 TSU -- available at: Climat Change Science 2013: Haiku http://daily.sightline.org/2013/12/16/the-entire-ipcc-report-in-19-illustrated-haiku/ The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report IPCC (2007): • Warming in the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations .... • Most of the observed increase in global averaged temperature ... is very likely due to ... increase in GHG concentrations. • Continued GHG emissions ... would induce many changes ... that would very likely be larger than those observed ... c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Principles Governing IPCC Work (1998, 2003, 2006) [...] [...] c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Overview of topical groups of chapters in WGI of AR5: Introduction Chapter 1 Observations and Paleoclimate Information Chapters 2, 3, 4, 5 Process Understanding Chapters 6, 7 From Forcing to Attribution of Climate Change Chapters 8, 9, 10 Future Climate Change and Predictability Chapters 11, 12 Integration Chapters 13, 14 The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Structure of AR5 in perspective Climate Change 2013 observations FAR 1990 SAR 1995 TAR 2001 AR4 2007 AR5 2013 11 Chapters 11 Chapters 14 Chapters 11 Chapters 14 Chapters paleoclimate sea level clouds carbon cycle regional change c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13 The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Schedule 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sep 2008 Election Co-Chairs & WG Bureaus July 2009 Scoping Meeting May 2010 Bureau selection of Lead Authors Nov 2010 First LA meeting, Kunming, China Mar 2011 Completion of 0-order draft Jul 2011 Second LA meeting Nov 2011 Completion 1st-order draft Apr 2012 Third LA meeting Aug 2012 Completion of 2nd-order draft Jan 2013 Fourth LA meeting May 2013 Completion of Final Draft Sep 2013 Final Approval Plenary WGI Mar 2014 Final Approval Plenary WGII Apr 2014 Final Approval Plenary WGIII Sep 2014 Final Approval Plenary Synthesis Report c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13 The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13 The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13 HIGHLIGHTS: Observations c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13 HIGHLIGHTS: Observations c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13 HIGHLIGHTS: Observations c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13 HIGHLIGHTS: Observations c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13 HIGHLIGHTS: Causes (attribution) c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13 HIGHLIGHTS: Causes (attribution) c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13 HIGHLIGHTS: Projected 21st C temperature changes c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13 HIGHLIGHTS: Projected global mean sea level rise 2081-2100 range: RCP8.5: 0.45-0.82 m RCP2.6: 0.26-0.55 m c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13 HIGHLIGHTS: Future options c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13 Course Goals Learn the scientific evidence behind headline -and otherstatements in AR5. What are the key findings? On what evidence are they based? -- models, observations, theory -- strength of evidence Where are there critical knowledge gaps? c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13 c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13 Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables AII.1: Historical Climate System Data AII.2: Anthropogenic Emissions AII.3: Natural Emissions AII.4: Abundances of the Well Mixed Greenhouse Gases AII.5: Column Abundances, Burdens, and Lifetimes AII.6: Effective Radiative Forcing AII.7: Environmental Data As in the TAR, to document the numbers behind the figures, generally decadal values Annex III: Glossary c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13 c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13 Class Schedule: 14 chapters in 13 weeks 1/31/14 2/7/14 Olivia 2/14/14 2/21/14 3/7/14 Cari 2/28/14 3/14/14 3/28/14 4/4/14 4/11/14 4/18/14 4/25/14 5/2/14 Keren Ken Chloe Nora Ethan