SPRING 2014
EESC G9910
Atmospheric Science
Seminar
Fri 9:15-10:45
Comer 1st Floor Seminar
Room
Jan 24, 2014: Organizational Meeting
and Overview (IPCC process; report
highlights)
IPCC AR5 WG1 Report: Course Information
Motivating questions:
What are the key findings?
On what evidence are they based?
Where are there critical knowledge gaps?
FULL FINAL REPORT WILL POST JAN 30.
Final SPM is posted: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
Sign up on email list (circulating)
• receive course emails
Access to galley proof version of chapter for next week
cannot be publicly distributed:
www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~amfiore/temp/Ch1.pdf
Supplemental readings at course website:
www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~amfiore/eescG9910.html
Course participation
a) Sign up for presentation – think about it so we can
start assigning by end of class
a) All are welcome to present, students are given first
priority in choosing chapters.
Schedule with names will be on course website
b) credit options:
1 point (discussion only)
2 points (discussion + presentation)
3 points (discussion + presentation + paper)
We welcome involvement from the full LDEO community.
Feel free to join us whenever possible.
Class Schedule: 14 chapters in 13 weeks
1/31/14
2/7/14
2/14/14
2/21/14
3/7/14
2/28/14
3/14/14
3/28/14
4/4/14
4/11/14
4/18/14
4/25/14
5/2/14
Guidance on presentations and final paper
(additional details posted on course website)
Presentations: focus on the figures and the stories they tell.
• Plan on presenting ~15-20 figures per class
2 options for final Papers (8 page max):
Option #1: Choose a “hot” research area topic and critically assess the
new findings since the IPCC AR5 WG1 publication freeze date (March
15, 2013). How should the 2013 report be updated in light of these
new findings?
Option #2: Identify a critical knowledge gap, either explicitly discussed in
the report or one that you feel should have been. Write a paper or a
research proposal describing the work needed to fill this gap.
The rest of today
1. A little background on the IPCC process, from AR4AR5
-- slides c/o Thomas Stocker University of Bern, Switzerland, IPCC WG1
co-chair – with Qin Dahe
2. Major highlights from the report
-- slides c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, Science Director, WG1 TSU
-- available at:
Climat Change Science 2013: Haiku
http://daily.sightline.org/2013/12/16/the-entire-ipcc-report-in-19-illustrated-haiku/
The Physical
Science Basis:
Science
Gaps,
Structure,
Schedule
Working Group
I Contribution
to the
IPCC
Fifth
Assessment
Report
IPCC (2007):
• Warming in the climate system is unequivocal, as is now
evident from observations ....
• Most of the observed increase in global averaged temperature
... is very likely due to ... increase in GHG concentrations.
• Continued GHG emissions ... would induce many changes ...
that would very likely be larger than those observed ...
c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ
The Physical
Science Basis:
Science
Gaps,
Structure,
Schedule
Working Group
I Contribution
to the
IPCC
Fifth
Assessment
Report
c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ
The Physical
Science Basis:
Science
Gaps,
Structure,
Schedule
Working Group
I Contribution
to the
IPCC
Fifth
Assessment
Report
Principles Governing IPCC Work
(1998, 2003, 2006)
[...]
[...]
c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ
The Physical
Science Basis:
Science
Gaps,
Structure,
Schedule
Working Group
I Contribution
to the
IPCC
Fifth
Assessment
Report
Overview of topical groups of chapters in WGI of AR5:
 Introduction
Chapter 1
 Observations and Paleoclimate Information
Chapters 2, 3, 4, 5
 Process Understanding
Chapters 6, 7
 From Forcing to Attribution of Climate Change
Chapters 8, 9, 10
 Future Climate Change and Predictability
Chapters 11, 12
 Integration
Chapters 13, 14
The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch
c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ
The Physical
Science Basis:
Science
Gaps,
Structure,
Schedule
Working Group
I Contribution
to the
IPCC
Fifth
Assessment
Report
Structure of AR5 in perspective
Climate Change
2013
observations
FAR 1990
SAR 1995
TAR 2001
AR4 2007
AR5 2013
11 Chapters
11 Chapters
14 Chapters
11 Chapters
14 Chapters








paleoclimate
sea level
clouds
carbon cycle
regional change



c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ






c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
The Physical
Science Basis:
Science
Gaps,
Structure,
Schedule
Working Group
I Contribution
to the
IPCC
Fifth
Assessment
Report
Schedule
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Sep
2008
Election Co-Chairs & WG Bureaus
July
2009
Scoping Meeting
May
2010
Bureau selection of Lead Authors
Nov
2010
First LA meeting, Kunming, China
Mar
2011
Completion of 0-order draft
Jul
2011
Second LA meeting
Nov
2011
Completion 1st-order draft
Apr
2012
Third LA meeting
Aug
2012
Completion of 2nd-order draft
Jan
2013
Fourth LA meeting
May
2013
Completion of Final Draft
Sep
2013
Final Approval Plenary WGI
Mar
2014
Final Approval Plenary WGII
Apr
2014
Final Approval Plenary WGIII
Sep
2014
Final Approval Plenary Synthesis Report
c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ
The Physical
Science Basis:
Science
Gaps,
Structure,
Schedule
Working Group
I Contribution
to the
IPCC
Fifth
Assessment
Report
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
The Physical
Science Basis:
Science
Gaps,
Structure,
Schedule
Working Group
I Contribution
to the
IPCC
Fifth
Assessment
Report
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
The Physical
Science Basis:
Science
Gaps,
Structure,
Schedule
Working Group
I Contribution
to the
IPCC
Fifth
Assessment
Report
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
HIGHLIGHTS: Observations
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
HIGHLIGHTS: Observations
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
HIGHLIGHTS: Observations
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
HIGHLIGHTS: Observations
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
HIGHLIGHTS: Causes (attribution)
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
HIGHLIGHTS: Causes (attribution)
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
HIGHLIGHTS: Projected 21st C temperature changes
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
HIGHLIGHTS: Projected global mean sea level rise
2081-2100 range:
RCP8.5: 0.45-0.82 m
RCP2.6: 0.26-0.55 m
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
HIGHLIGHTS: Future options
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
Course Goals
 Learn the scientific evidence behind headline -and otherstatements in AR5.
What are the key findings?
On what evidence are they based?
-- models, observations, theory
-- strength of evidence
Where are there critical knowledge gaps?
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables
AII.1: Historical Climate System Data
AII.2: Anthropogenic Emissions
AII.3: Natural Emissions
AII.4: Abundances of the Well Mixed Greenhouse Gases
AII.5: Column Abundances, Burdens, and Lifetimes
AII.6: Effective Radiative Forcing
AII.7: Environmental Data
As in the TAR, to document the numbers behind the figures,
generally decadal values
Annex III: Glossary
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13
Class Schedule: 14 chapters in 13 weeks
1/31/14
2/7/14
Olivia
2/14/14
2/21/14
3/7/14
Cari
2/28/14
3/14/14
3/28/14
4/4/14
4/11/14
4/18/14
4/25/14
5/2/14
Keren
Ken
Chloe
Nora
Ethan