CLIMATE CHANGE AND
MIGRATION IN ASIA AND
THE PACIFIC: SOME KEY
ISSUES
by
Graeme Hugo
ARC Australian Professorial Fellow, Professor of Geography and Director of the
Australian Population and Migration Research Centre,
The University of Adelaide
Presentation to the Hamburg Conference: Actions for Climate Induced Migration,
Climate Service Center and the KlimaCampus at University of Hamburg
16-18 July 2013
Outline of Presentation
• Introduction
• The Asia-Pacific Context
• The Relationship Between
Environmental Change and
Migration
• Anticipated Hot Spots
• Mobility Responses
• Policy Issues
• Conclusion
ESCAP Region1: Major Demographic Changes, 1970-2011
Source:
UNESCAP, 1984, 2011
Demographic Variable
1970
2011
Percent
Change
1970-2011
Total Population (m)
2,041
3,998
+95.9
55.2
57.2
+3.6
Annual Growth Rate3
2.2
0.9
-59.1
Percent Urban3
24
43
+79.2
Percent Aged 0-143
40
25
-37.5
Percent Aged 65+3
4
7
+75.0
Dependency Ratio3
80
47
-41.3
Total Fertility Rate2,3
5.4
2.1
-99.6
Expectancy of Life at Birth –
Males3
52
68
+30.8
Expectancy of Life at Birth –
Females3
54
72
+33.3
Percent of World Population
1
The data exclude the countries of Central Asia which were not part of the
ESCAP region in 1970 and 1980.
2
TFR and Life Expectancies refer to the average of the five years prior to 1970.
3
Includes Central Asia in 2011.
The Asian-Pacific Context
Asia-Pacific: Population, 2012
Source: Population Reference Bureau 2012
World output shares
Source: Australian Government 2012
Share of world output growth
Source: Australian Government 2012
Key Changes
•
•
•
•
•
Rapid Economic growth
Social change – role of women, education
Demographic change
Urbanisation
Increased international interaction –
regional organisation
• Increased personal mobility
Number of Chinese Travelling Abroad for Business and Tourism 1981-2003
and Total Number of Outbound Trips from China, 1997-2010
Source:
Far Eastern Economic Review, 24 June 2004, 30; Asia Times Online, 9 February 2006; Li
and Fung Research Centre, 2010; Yu, 2010; Chao, 2011
World International Migrant Stock in Thousands, 2010
Source: United Nations 2009
Migrant Stocks by Country of Origin, 2010
Source:
World Bank Bilateral Migration Matrix
Total Refugees and People in Refugee like Situations
by Country of Asylum, End 2011
Source: UNHCR 2012
Remittances Received (US$m), 2012
Source: World Bank Remittances database, November 2012
-2
Southern Europe
Southern Africa
South-Eastern Asia
Absolute change
Western Asia
Central America
Northern Europe
Eastern Asia
Australia and New Zealand
Middle Africa
Polynesia
Northern Africa
Northern America
South America
Melanesia
Western Europe
Western Africa
Caribbean
Central Asia
Eastern Europe
Southern Asia
Eastern Africa
Micronesia
Millions
The number of international migrants: absolute change
and percentage change between 2000 and 2013, by region
Source: United Nations 2013
16
% change
140
14
12
120
100
10
8
80
6
4
40
60
2
0
20
0
-20
Internal Migration
• Much greater than international migration
• Mobility is now within the calculus of
choice of all Asian migrants
• Massively increased circular mobility
• Urbanisation key factor
Indonesia: Number of Persons per Motor Vehicle,
1950-2009
Source:
Year
Biro Pusat Statistik publications on Motor Vehicles and Length of Roads
Persons/Motor Vehicle
Persons/Motor Vehicle
(including Motor Cycles)
(excluding Motor Cycles)
1950
1,507
1,691
1961
263
447
1971
129
300
1980
38
123
1990
20
64
2000
11
39
2005
6
23
2009
3
18
Asia: Urban and Rural Population 1950 to 2030
Source: United Nations World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision
5,000,000
60
4,500,000
50
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
30
2,000,000
20
1,500,000
1,000,000
10
500,000
Year
Rural
Urban
% Urban
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
0
1960
0
% Urban
40
1950
Number '000
3,500,000
A huge population redistribution has
already occurred in Asia
Number urban (m)
Number rural (m)
1950
230
1,122
2005
1,480
2,259
2050
3,000
1,745
* A significant change in population distribution has
occurred in the last 40 years. Why not just as large
a change in the next 40 years?
World cumulative humanitarian risk hotspots for
climate-related hazards - floods, cyclones and drought
Source: CARE International 2009, p.26
Asia: Population Affected by Natural Disasters,
1976 to 2011
Source: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) International Disaster Database,
http://www.emdat.be/, accessed 3rd February 2012
700
500
400
300
200
100
0
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Number Affected in Millions
600
Year
Population and Climate Change Hotspots
Source:
www.populationaction.org/Publications
Major Climate Change Hazards
• The Asia and Pacific regions have been identified as some of the
global regions most at risk of experiencing natural disasters – major
areas of climate change impact
• Strong correlation between countries most at risk of experiencing
environmental hazards and those at greatest risk from climate
change
• Main climate change impact areas…
- coastal vulnerability, inundation, storm surges, deltas, coastal
plains
- cyclones and typhoons
- riparian flooding, impact of glacier melt
- water stress
- atolls, low lying islands
Southern and Eastern Asia: Estimated Population Density Within
a 5m Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), 2010
Southeast Asia: Location of Hot Spot Areas Likely to be Most Impacted
by Coastal Flooding Associated with Sea Level Rise, Riparian Flooding,
Cyclones/Typhoons and Water Stress as a Result of Climate Change
Source:
Yusuf and Francisco, 2009, 6
Tuvalu: Estimated Population Density Within a 5m Low
Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), 2010
Projecting Impacts of Climate
Change on Migration
• Too many uncertainties to project
numbers of migrants
• Can project populations in hot spots
Indicative Population Projections
• To underline the urgency of the need for
development of appropriate institutions
and mechanisms to cope with the impact
of climate change.
• To give an indication of the areas that are
most likely to be impacted by climate
change induced mobility in order to target
intervention strategies.
Southeast Asia: Population in Hot Spot Areas at High Risk of Climate
Change Impacts, 2000
Total
Country
Population
2000
(’000)
Brunei
Percent of National Population at Risk of:
Coastal
Flooding
Cyclones
Riparian
Flooding
Water Stress
317
-
-
-
-
13,145
18.0
1.0
100.0
-
739
-
-
-
-
Indonesia
212,060
25.9
-
-
68.2
Lao PDR
5,275
-
64.2
-
-
Malaysia
22,334
29.3
-
-
-
Myanmar
47,833
34.1
9.4
32.7
48.9
Philippines
75,652
39.3
100.0
7.7
-
Singapore
3,923
-
-
-
-
Thailand
62,770
21.3
9.1
-
65.3
Vietnam
78,114
67.8
60.5
100.0
-
522,163
176,196
136,627
112,751
204,048
Cambodia
East Timor
Total (number ’000)
Age-Sex Structure 2006, Hotspot Areas
Females(%)
Males(%)
100+ yrs.
95-99 yrs.
90-94 yrs.
85-89 yrs.
80-84 yrs.
75-79 yrs.
70-74 yrs.
65-69 yrs.
60-64 yrs.
55-59 yrs.
50-54 yrs.
45-49 yrs.
40-44 yrs.
35-39 yrs.
30-34 yrs.
25-29 yrs
20-24 yrs
15-19 yrs.
10-14 yrs.
5-9 yrs.
0-4 yrs.
-0.05
-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
Projected Total Megacity Populations at Risk Allowing
for Sea Level Rises of 1 and 5 Metres (’000), 2000
Sea Level Rise
Total
2000 Population
1m
5m
Bangkok
9,667,300
193,606
4,077,760
Ho Chi Minh City
5,545,760
630,135
3,405,010
Jakarta
19,682,700
713,960
1,755,040
Manila
14,071,900
36,841
398,650
3,327,740
0
0
Singapore
Nations with the Highest Numbers and Proportions of Their Urban Population within the Low Elevation
Coastal Zone – The Continuous Area Along the Coast That Is Less Than 10 Metres Above Sea Level
Source:
McGranahan et al., 2008
Numbers
Proportions
Migration Policy Responses
• Most response will be in-situ
• Must also realise some groups will not be
able to adapt at all
• Overwhelmingly internal migration is
involved
• Migration responses are of two types
– Adaptation
– Displacement
Migration as Adaptation
• Strong tradition of mobility as a “coping mechanism”
during drought, disasters
• Several forms
– Sending of some family members to other locations
– Temporary displacement (in acute disasters)
– Circular migration/commuting
– “Calling in” remittance obligations which remain
dormant in normal times
• More available to better off sections of community
Migration as Displacement
• Last resort
• Often involves poorest because they have no
access to adaptation options
• Much experience of forced displacement in Asia
- Land resettlement Transmigrasi
- Disaster Temporary and Permanent
Displacement
- Mega projects (Three Dams)
Linear Vs Non Linear Impacts of Climate
Change on Migration
1. significantly increase the numbers of people
migrating using established patterns both
internally and externally in a linear manner,
primarily via voluntary mechanisms; and
2. non-linear changes involves creating new
migration flows that result as thresholds of
resilience or tipping points being reached. May
be spontaneous or involve policy intervention.
Key Issues
• Needs to be considered in context of
existing migration, not separately
• Can influence migration through impact at
both origin and destination
• Crucial role of migration networks
• Inter-relationship with poverty – poor least
able to use migration as adaptation more
likely to be forcibly displaced
Key Policy Issues
• Most of mobility adjustments will be internal
• Key international dimensions
- funding of internal adjustments
- role of international migration as an adaptation
mechanism
- role of international migration in resettlement
• Necessary for setting up an international fund on
“polluter pays” principles to fund adaptation and
resettlement
• Should there be a dedicated fund for migration
adaptation–resettlement or should it be a fund for all
adaptation?
Key Migration Policy Issues –
Migration and Adaptation
• Build on role of migration as a facilitator of
development and building resilience in origin
areas.
• Focus on high risk areas in encouraging
internal and international migration.
• Policy to facilitate and enhance existing flows
and in some cases help create new flows.
• Need to involve poorest groups in them.
(cont.)
• Introduction of best practice into temporary
labour migration
• Improving governance.
• Need for more ‘development friendly’ approach
in destination countries (e.g. RSE in New
Zealand).
• Based on recognition of the reality of the effects
of ageing and low fertility in high income
nations
• National Spatial Development Policy –
encouraging development away from hot spots
over the next five decades.
Resettlement of Entire Communities:
A Last Resort
• Focus of attention – resettlement on both a
temporary and permanent basis will need to be
planned for.
• Need to mesh responses with existing disaster
management systems (Hyogo Framework for
Action).
• Some permanent displacement will be necessary,
most within countries.
• Need to build on huge body of existing knowledge
on planned resettlement of displaced populations.
Barriers to Establishing a New
International Regime to Protect
Climate Change Migrants
• Difficulty of separating climate change from
other drivers of migration.
• Reluctance of potential destination
countries to accept a new category of
asylum seeker
• Lack of existing international cooperation
on migration in Asia and the Pacific.
• Short term vs long term goals.
Advantages to Accommodating Climate Change
Migration Within Existing Structures
• The option is immediately available to climate change
forced migrants.
• It overcomes the manifest suspicion of destination country
governments and societies existing, let alone expanded,
‘asylum’ categories of immigration.
• It obviates any need to set up new institutions, structures
and mechanisms.
• There are for many nations a plethora of different categories
of migration which provides a range of ways in which
climate change displaces could be accommodated.
• The system would utilise existing migration networks where
they exist to facilitate migration and to assist settlement at
the destination.
Need for Integration with Migration
and Development Initiatives
• Siloization of 2 key migration discourses
• Need to go beyond migration as a “coping
mechanism”
• Migration can facilitate development and
poverty reduction if carefully planned
• Need to integrate with development
initiatives
Recommendations
1. Consciousness Raising, Climate Change Adaptation
Plans
2. Need for an Improved Empirical Basis
- Data Collection on Migration
- Targeted Case Studies
3. Capacity Building and Improvement in Governance in
Migration
4. Enhanced Regional and International Cooperation
5. Develop Best Practice in Migration
6. Effective Mechanisms for Funding Migration Responses
7. Integrate with Disaster Management
8. Enhancing Resistance in Communities