UK and Global Economic Insights
Dr Andrew Sentance
Senior Economic Adviser, PwC
Hospitality and Tourism Summit 2015
London, 30th June 2015
The world economy in the 21st century
World GDP, US $ trillion (current prices)
120
98
100
75
80
63
60
40
33
20
0
2000
Source: IMF
PwC
2008
2015
2020*
* forecast
Asia-Pacific now the dominant region
Percentage share of world GDP, current market prices & exchange rates
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1980
1990
US
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
PwC
2000
EU-28
2010
Asia-Pacific
2015
Global growth in 2015 – latest PwC forecasts
2.2
Canada
Russia
UK
2.3
-5.0
Germany
1.7
Ireland
3.4
Greece
France
US
2.4
-1.1
1.3
Japan
2.5
2.8
1.1
Italy
Spain
Mexico
China
0.4
7.0
India
Key
x.x
7.0
= GDP growth in 2015
Source: PwC June 2015 projections
PwC
Brazil
South Africa
-0.4
Australia
2.6
2.0
Growth in leading EU economies
Annual % GDP growth to Q1 2015 in 10 largest EU economies
Poland
Spain
Sweden
UK
Netherlands
Germany
Belgium
France
Austria
Italy
0.0%
Source: Eurostat
PwC
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
Growth over UK recovery in major business sectors
% per annum increase in output, Q3 2009 – Q1 2015
Prof & business services
Retail & wholesale
Transport & comms
Property services
Hotels & restaurants
Construction
Other services
Manufacturing
Water & waste
Agriculture
Electricity & gas
Finance/insurance
Mining, oil, etc
-8% -6% -4% -2% 0%
Source: Office for National Statistics
PwC
2%
4%
6%
8%
UK leads G7 on services export contribution
Exports of commercial services as % of GDP, 2013
UK
France
Germany
Italy
Canada
US
Japan
0%
2%
4%
6%
Source: World Trade Organisation and IMF
PwC
8%
10%
12%
14%
Key issues for UK Hospitality & Tourism
 Global and domestic economic stability
 UK role in the EU and referendum outcome
 Attractiveness of UK as business/investment location
 Transport investment, particularly airport capacity
 Labour availability and skill shortages
 Transition to higher interest rates
PwC