Timeline of key events in Egypt
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
1952: Free Officers Coup; Muhammed Naguib is President
1956: Aswan Dam plan/Nationalization of the Suez; Nasser becomes President
1958-1961: United Arab Republic with Syria
1967: 6-Day War; beginning of “state of emergency”
1970: Death of Nasser; accession of Sadat (“Nasser’s poodle”)
1973: War with Israel (“the crossing”)
1974: Launch of economic restructuring “infitah”
1977: Sadat visits Israel
1979: Camp David Accords: peace with Israel, return of the Sinai, expulsion from
the Arab League
1981: Assassination of Sadat; accession of Mubarak
mid-1980s: Wafd party competes in elections again; Muslim Brotherhood
unofficially competes; then increasing political closure
1989: Egypt readmitted to the Arab League
1991: Egypt fights against Iraq in the Gulf War
mid-1990s: Islamist revolt; attempts to bring down the government; assassination
attempt on Mubarak (1995)
2004: Increasing, organized popular protest; renewal of Islamist attacks
2005: first Presidential election installs Mubarak for a 5th term; parliamentary
elections give the Muslim Brotherhood a substantial minority position
2006-2009: Internal debates over Mubarak’s successor; tightening up on reform
2010: Parliamentary elections are widely seen as fraudulent; NDP dominates
2011: President Mubarak ousted in a massive 18-day popular revolution
0
2012: President Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood elected
Governing structures under Mubarak
• Presidency
–
–
–
Source of most political power
Appoints executive cabinet
Hosni Mubarak was one of the longest serving world leaders (30 years)
• People’s Assembly (Majlis al-Sha’ab)
–
–
454 members; drafts legislation in conjunction with the cabinet
Dominated by the President’s NDP party, with scattered representation from
independents and opposition parties
• Consultative Council (Majlis al-Shura)
–
Advisory body only; 1/3 appointed by the President
President Mubarak
Gamal Mubarak
1
Historical Egyptian political issues
• Economic policy
–
–
State-led development vs. Capitalism
Role of the infitah
• Poverty/Unemployment
–
–
State subsidies on employment and food
Massive underemployment and inequality
• Foreign policy
–
–
–
–
Cold war neutral (initial Nasserite position)
Pro-Soviet (1954-1971)
Pro-Western (1974-present)
At the center of the Arab-Israeli conflict
• Religion
–
–
Keeping Islamists out of the state
Keeping tensions between Muslims and Copts minimal
• Civil society
–
–
Limited freedom of the Media and organizations
Corruption issues
• Political stagnation and the possibility of protest
2
Restricted political liberalization and political parties
• Patterns of political liberalization
– Tradition of restricted political pluralism under the British/King Faruq
– One-party state until Sadat legalized 3 parties in 1976
• National Democratic Party (NDP) as a centrist party; with two legal opposition parties
on the center-right and center-left
– Mubarak expanded the number of legal parties to 13 in the 1980s
• Key political parties
– National Democratic Party
– Old opposition parties: New Wafd, Labor
– Opposition parties are historically very weak and have a small political base
• Barriers to free competition
–
–
–
–
Structural barriers to participation
High levels of political apathy
Exclusion of parties based on class or religion
Muslim Brotherhood illegal, but participated as a collection of independents
3
21st century elections
• The 2000 elections
– The NDP did not do well, got under ½ of the seats
– But those that did well as independents were friendly to the government and joined the
NDP in parliament, so the control of parliament was never in doubt
– Muslim Brotherhood independents did very well, but ran in fewer constituencies
• The 2005 and 2007 elections
–
–
–
–
–
First presidential elections in 2005; Mubarak dominant; relatively low turnout
Increasing number of political protests
Appearance of new political movements and parties (Kifaya and al-Ghad)
Muslim Brotherhood is a scare for the regime in 2005, doing better than anticipated
Brotherhood increasingly excluded in the 2007 shura council elections
• How should we understand top-down political liberalization of Egypt?
– Parliament has remained weak
– Campaign issues have revolved around political process, not just distributive issues
– What role has international pressure played?
Kifayya protest
Ayman Nour of al-Ghad
4
Egyptian Islamists and the state
• Home of the Islamist movement
– Home of the Muslim Brotherhood and Sayyid Qutb
– Long tradition of Islamist opposition to the state
– Also strong neo-Sufi movement going on these days
• The state under fire
–
–
–
–
–
–
Mid-1990s was the high point of Islamist radicalism
Al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya took over Imbaba and declared it an Islamic Republic
Islamist assassinations of prominent political and judicial officials
Attacks on intellectuals, writers, tourists
Massive state retaliation in the mid-1990s
Increasing state control over private mosques, prayer leaders (imams)
• Split in Islamist movements
– Younger generation of Muslim Brotherhood split off and formed the al-Wasat (center)
party in 1996
– Have constraints led to Islamist moderation in Egypt?
– Have opportunities for participation led to Islamist moderation?
5
Revolution and political turbulence in Egypt 2011• Context
– National Democratic Party (NDP) dominates through managed electoral competition
– Economic growth, then crisis, with rising prices
– Military is popular but has entrenched economic interests
• Causes
– Grievances
– Corruption amid economic expansion led to a 2-tier society
– Stark lack of opportunity among educated youth
– 2010 elections were too fraudulent, causing challengers to doubt participation
– Opportunities
– Divisions and uncertainty over who would succeed the aging Mubarak
– Collective network built around “kefaya” movement and 2004-2005 protests
– Online protest networks: “April 6 Movement” and “We are all Khaled Said”
– Tunisian example caught the public imagination
• Development
–
–
–
–
–
Gradual agreement to some political reforms as popular demands kept increasing
Attempts to use vigilantes to deter the protesters
Military strategy finally fails and key officers decide to sacrifice Mubarak
Cautious rule by military tribunal in preparation for elections (SCAF)
Continued popular protest against the slow pace of reforms and lack of accountability
6
Timeline of Mubarak’s ouster
Timeline:
Protests
st
1 “day of Crackdown build; elrevolt”
on protests Baradei
returns
Jan 25
Jan 26
Jan 27
Major
clashes
with riot
police
Jan 28
Curfew
broken;
Mubarak
dismisses
govt.
Jan 28
VP
Suleiman
appointed
Jan 29
Military Mubarak
says he’ll
leaves
protesters quit in
Sept
alone
Jan 30
Feb 1
Pro- vs.
antiMubarak
clashes.
Feb 2
NDP rulers
resign;
Mubarak
talks with ousted
opposition
Feb 5
Feb 11
7
Egyptian political institutions today
Political institutions
– Constitution
• Drafted by an unrepresentative constituent
assembly in November 2012
– President
• Mohammed Morsi of the FJP becomes President in June 2012
• He takes on the power of the military and the courts
– Parliament
• Elected Jan 2012 in three rounds of voting
• Dissolved by the courts after 6 months
– Courts
• Led by the Supreme Constitutional Court and Court of Cassation
• Have had a standoff with the President after he revised their powers
– Military
• Major social and economic institution in Egypt
• Led by Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which took
power after Mubarak was ousted
8
Contemporary political movements and parties
• Political movements and parties
–
–
–
–
Muslim Brotherhood and its Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) dominate
Other “Salafist” Islamist movements parties (ex: al-Nour) also command strong support
Historical legacy parties (“New Wafd”), including old NDP affiliates
“Egyptian Bloc” captures a variety of liberal civil society groups + some smaller liberal
party alliances
– Centrist splinter groups from the Muslim Brotherhood (“al-Wasat”)
– National Salvation Front (el-Baradei) formed to challenge Morsi’s self-given powers
• Electoral results (2011-1012)
– 508 seats in the National Assembly
Democratic Alliance (235)
Islamist Bloc (123)
New Wafd (38)
Egyptian Bloc (34)
Ex-NDP parties (18)
al-Wasat (10)
Reform and Development (9)
The Revolution Continues (9)
Justice (1)
Independents (21)
Presidential appointees (10)
9
Map of Egyptian political parties
10
Contemporary political issues in Egypt
• Major challenges
– Economic stability
• Possibility of economic collapse; shortage of cash reserves
• Need for political stability to bring back tourism and investment
• Political challenges of reforming the Egyptian economy
– Political representation and inclusion
• Constituent assembly boycotted by Christians and liberals
• Potential boycott of 2013 elections
• Future status of women and religious minorities
– Ongoing disruptive violence
• Many deaths following the imposition of death sentences in the Football riots case
(January 2013)
• Protests and clashes at the Presidential palace and Brotherhood headquarters
• An uncertain future
– President Morsi must walk a tightrope between allowing voice and enforcing stability
– Popular priorities are beginning to shift from democracy towards rule of law
– Timing and outcome of parliamentary elections are currently in doubt
What do you think could be done to improve Egypt’s trajectory?
11
Lecture terms—March 27
Hosni Mubarak
Mohammed el-Baradei
infitah
Supreme Council of the Armed
Forces (SCAF)
National Democratic Party
Al-Nour party
Kifayya movement
Al-Ghad (Tomorrow) Party
Al-Azhar
Muslim Brotherhood
Al-Gamaa al-Islamiyya
Al-Wasat (Center) Party
April 6 Movement
12