Methane and the Public Health Risks of Modern Oil & Gas
Development
Adam Law, MD, FRCP
President
PSE Healthy Energy.
Clinical Assistant Professor of Medicine
Weill Cornell Medical College
Disclosures
I have no financial relationships with any commercial or nonprofit interest related to the content of this activity
I am board president of PSE Healthy Energy (Physicians
Scientists & Engineers for Healthy Energy)
“PSE Healthy Energy provides scientific information to help
identify reasonable, healthy, and sustainable energy options.
We put our mission into practice by integrating scientific
understanding across multiple disciplines, including
engineering, environmental science, and public health. We
generate, translate, and disseminate scientific research to
promote the adoption of evidence-based energy policies.”
Global Warming Potential
Lifetime
20 years#
100 years#
Carbon
Dioxide
30 – 95 years* 1
1
Methane
12.5 years*
86
34
Black carbon
6.31 days*
4,470
1,055 – 2,240
*2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
#2013 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
CH4 Global Warming Potential Factors,
1997 - present
90
36
IPCC 20 y GWP
80
30
60
28
50
26
40
24
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
20
1998
20
1997
22
1996
30
100 yr time frame
32
EPA GHGI GWP
70
20 yr time frame
34
IPCC 100 y GWP
CH4 and Black Carbon and Climate
Warning Zone
Shindell, et al. Science 335, 183 (2012)
U.S. Natural Gas
2013 Production
MMcf
Conventional Gas Wells
Oil Wells*
Shale Gas Wells
Coalbed Wells
Gross Production
% of Total
11,255,616
37.5%
onshore
10,237,093
34.12%
offshore
1,018,523
3.39%
5,427,676
18.1%
11,896,204
39.6%
1,425,757
4.8%
30,005,254
100.0%
* Includes gas produced from unconventional oil plays
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_prod_sum_dcu_NUS_a.htm
Large-Scale Shale Gas Production
Creates 3 major Climate Problems
• Produces CO2 when it is burned
• Methane, CH4, purposefully vented and leaked:






During drilling
During initial frac fluid flow-back period
Continuously at the pad site via leaking wells + equipment
During liquid unloading
During gas processing
During transmission, storage, and distribution
• Produces black carbon, BC, (soot) during flaring and
processing
9
10
Energy Returned on Investment (EROI)
EPA Methodology
ECH4 = 𝐸𝐹 ∗ 𝐴
Natural Gas Systems:
Emission factors for hydraulic fracturing completions/workovers developed from
GHG reporting data for 2011 – 2013 (reflect net emissions)
All other emission factors – based on EPA/GRI 1996 (reflect potential emissions)
Activity data based on federal and private databases
Petroleum Industry:
Production & Transportation
• Activity factors extrapolated from EPA/GRI 1996 baseline using publically
available data on production, inputs, etc.
• Emission factors based on EPA 1999 ( reflect potential emissions)
• No HVHF emission factors/ conventional & unconventional not separated
Refining – based on GHG reporting data for 2010 - 2013
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/ghgemissions/US-GHG-Inventory-2015Annex-3-Additional-Source-or-Sink-Categories.pdf
EPA Estimated Emissions from HVHF
Table A-134: 2013 National Activity Data and Emission Factors, and Emissions (Mg), by category for Hydraulically
Fractured
Gas Well Completions and Workovers - 2013 EPA Inventory Values
Activity
Activity Data
Emission Factor Emissions (Mg)
HF Completions/Workovers - vented
1,677 events/yeara
36.8Mg/eventb
61,737
HF Completions/Workovers - flared
835 events/yeara
4.9Mg/eventb
4,100
HF Completions/Workovers - RECs
3,156 events/yeara
3.2Mg/eventb
10,229
HF Completions/Workovers - RECs that flare
2,117 events/yeara
4.9Mg/eventb
10,326
a 2013 GHGRP - Subpart W data. The GHGRP data represents a subset of national completions and workovers, due to the
reporting threshold. Please see the section on “Activity Data” above for more information and the Planned Improvements
section of the Inventory report.
b Emissions for hydraulic fracturing completions and workovers are split into 4 categories and the same emission factors
are used for all NEMS regions.
Observed versus Estimated 2.5x higher
15 studies
CH4 Emissions from the Oil and Gas
Sector according to atmospheric
measurements
3,000
30,000
25,000
2,500
20,000
2,000
MMt CO2e/y (100 y)
MMt CO2e/y
Gg CH4/y
MMt CO2e/y (20 y)
1,500
15,000
10,000
1,000
5,000
500
0
0
EPA GHGI 2015
Sum of Process
Measurements
(wt.avg)
Life-cycle
Measurements
(wt.avg)
EPA GHGI 2015
Sum of Process
Measurements
(wt.avg)
Life-cycle
Measurements
(wt.avg)
IPCC 2014 GWP values
Reconciling the Observed vs Estimated
– Bottom-up (estimated) inventories are based on
emission factors (EF) developed from a small subset of
infrastructure and poorly constrained activity factors
• Under-representation of super-emitters in EF sampling
• Underestimate of emissions from the petroleum sector?
• Errors in activity data (Zimmerle et al. 2015)
– Missing sources?
• End-use fugitives (Wennburg et al. 2012)
• Abandoned wells (Kang et al. 2014)
• Drilling emissions (Caulton et al. 2014)
16
National Greenhouse Gas Inventory:
EPA 2015
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Natural gas sector = 6,295 Gg CH4 y-1 in 2013
Petroleum sector = 1,294 Gg CH4 y-1 in 2013
Total = 7,589 Gg CH4 y-1
30% of total U.S. methane emissions
= 258 Million Tonnes CO2 over 100 y
= 652 Million Tonnes CO2 over 20 y
26% enteric fermentation
Boston
•
•
•
Mapped methane (CH4)
leaks throughout the city of
Boston
Identified 3356 leaks with
concentrations exceeding
up to 15 times the global
background level
Signatures strongly
indicated a fossil fuel
source rather than biogenic
source for most leaks
Source: Phillips NG, Ackley R, Crosson ER, Down A, Hutyra LR, Brondfield M,
et al. 2013. Mapping urban pipeline leaks: Methane leaks across Boston.
Environmental Pollution 173:1–4.
Washington DC
•
•
•
Natural gas leaks largest
anthropogenic source of
CH4 in the US
Mapped 5893 natural gas
leaks across 1500 road
miles of Washington, DC
At 19 tested locations, 12
potentially explosive
(Grade 1) CH4
concentrations of 50,000 to
500,000 ppm were
detected
Source: Jackson RB, Down A, Phillips NG, Ackley RC, Cook CW, Plata DL, et al. 2014. Natural Gas Pipeline Leaks Across
Washington, DC. Environ. Sci. Technol. 48:2051–2058
COMPENDIUM OF SCIENTIFIC, MEDICAL, AND MEDIA
FINDINGS DEMONSTRATING RISKS AND HARMS OF
FRACKING (UNCONVENTIONAL GAS AND OIL EXTRACTION)
3rd Edition
•
Unwieldy name, valuable resource!
•
Sources are scientific and medical literature,
government and industry reports, journalistic
investigation.
•
Fully referenced; provides succinct abstracts, links.
•
Available soon from:
Concerned Health Professionals of New York
(www.concernedhealthny.org) and
Physicians for Social Responsibility (www.psr.org)
August 2015 – 2 EPA rulings
• August 3 The Clean Power Plan pp 1560
• August 23 Oil and Natural Gas Air Pollution
Standards pp 591
The Clean Power Plan
•
•
•
•
1st US power plant carbon pollution standards
Reduce emissions by 1/3 2005 standard by 2030
“Flexibility” US States and Energy Corporations
Fossil fuels “critical component of America’s
energy future”
• Power plants “operate more cleanly and
efficiently”
• “Expanding the capacity for zero- and lowemitting power sources”
Oil and Natural Gas Air Pollution
Standards
• Builds on 2012 New Source Performance
Standards (NSPS) for VOC emissions HVHF
• Overall reduce emissions 40 - 45%
• Reduced Emission Completions (“Green”)
• Limit emissions
– new and modified pneumatic pumps
– Compressor stations and gas storage facilities
• Compressors
• Pneumatic controllers
Critique of august EPA initiatives
• Key assumptions
– Coal to natural gas  GHG emissions 32%
– Standards achieve CH4 lifecycle leakage
– New oil and gas only
• BUT
– EPA estimate 1.5% leakage, Measured > 1.2 –
9.3%
– > 2.8% no longer mitigates coal fired power
– GWP CH4 EPA 25, IPCC 36 and 20 year GWP 86
Evidence-based policy proposals
• Health, environmental and climate science
• Shift away from both coal and natural gas
• Power sector move directly to renewables