N
C
E
P
Mesoscale Modeling Branch:
Where We Are and
Where We’re Going
Geoff DiMego
geoff.dimego@noaa.gov
301-763-8000 ext7221
7 December 2011
1
Where the Nation’s climate and weather services begin
TOPICS
• Who we are (hasn’t changed, so I left it out)
• Observation Processing and Quality Control
• GSI Analysis and Data Assimilation
• HiResWindow and SPC runs
• NAM: NMMB + NEMS + Nesting
• Convergence of NAM+RUC/RR
• RTMA + Delayed Mesoscale Analysis
• BACKUP
SLIDES
2
Obs Processing & QC
Highlights: Current & Future
• BUFRLIB upgrade w/NCO (Q2FY2011)
• Mesonet Metadata effort (thank$ to
Curtis Marshall & Tim Mcclung)
– Broad & Aggressive Collection
– Storage in MySQL database
NAM 12 hr Forecast Ri-Based PBL
Height with Verifying RAOBs
• NRL aircraft QC package (Q? 2012)
– Ascents/descents generated as profiles
– Diagnose PBL ht from profiles (critical Ri)
– Enables PBL verification & analysis
• Level II Radar QC
– Fixed major bug in height assignment
– Refined use of Level 2.5 (AK only) & Level 3
– Higher quality VAD wind profiles
• 400 day MySQL obs-dump database
translation effort
3
Relationships in Metadata
MySQL Database Courtesy Steve Levine
• Updated station
dictionaries
• Expanded uselists
• Updated dynamic reject
lists
• Derived directiondependent reject lists
• Deriving timedependent reject lists
4
Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation
• Multi-Agency development effort led by NCEP/EMC
– ESRL / GSD + ESRL / PSD
– JCSDA: NOAA, NESDIS, NASA, DOD
– Code management (SubVersion) with regression testing
• Community supported via DTC in Boulder
– GSI Workshop and Tutorial June 28 - July 1, 2011
• Includes hybrid approach for EnKF + 3D- or 4D-VAR
• Works for global & NEMS/NMMB on full or subset of model
domain / resolution
• While full EnKF tested for global, regional tested with simple use of
hybrid and we get improved results using GEFS as input ensemble
• Will test SREF for finer scale mass-wind & flow dependent BE
• Will then test HRRRE-TL storm scale ensemble of opportunity to
extract cross-covariances of state variables with fields such as
reflectivityGEFS & experimental EnKF
GSI Upgrade for NAM Includes:
Global upgrade Spring 2011
Faster code (~9%), improved optimization
and additional options
Recomputed background errors
Limit moisture to be >= 1.e-10 in each outer
iteration and at the end of analysis
Locate buoys at 10 m (from 20 m)
Ambiguous vector qc for ASCAT data
Satellite radiance related changes
Update to radiative transfer model - CRTM 2.0.2
Inclusion of Field of View Size/Shape/Power for
radiative transfer
Relax AMSU-A Channel 5 QC
Remove down weighting of collocated radiances
Inclusion of uniform (higher resolution) thinning
for satellite radiances
Stratospheric satellite
Improved OMI QC
Removal of redundant SBUV/2 total ozone
Retune SBUV/2 ozone ob errors
Inclusion of SBUV from NOAA-19
New ob sources for NAM Fall 2011
New conventional obs
–
–
–
–
–
MESONET ps, T, q
ACARS moisture (WVSS-II)
MAP Profiler winds
RASS Profiler Tv
WINDSAT & ASCAT ocean winds (from
scatterometer)
New unconventional obs
– Satellite Radiances
• AMSUA from aqua & NOAA19
• HIRS4 & MHS from NOAA19
• IASI from METOP-A
– Refractivity
• GPS radio occultation
6
~2.7 Million New Observations
Per Day after NAM Upgrade
• Upper Air ~43K
–
–
–
–
–
RASS 126 t = 1403
MAP 227 uv= 8859
AIRCAR133 q = 8533
WDSATR 289 uv =17392
WDSATR 290 uv =7198
• Surface ~1170K
– MESONET 188 q = 393341
– MESONET 188 t = 453584
– MESONET 188 p= 322949
• New Satellite ~1528K
– Radiance
• NOAA19 AMSUA= 151214
• NOAA19 HIRS4 = 65914
• AQUA AMSUA= 83794
• IASI METOPA= 1227199
– Refractivity
• GPS-RO [COSMIC] = 54589
7
March 2011 Upgrade of HiResWindow
Briefing Package can be seen HERE
• Sized to fit on the previous CCS!
• Upgrade NMM & ARW to WRF
v3.2 with improved passive advection
in both cores
18Z
• Add Guam runs
• Add product generation: High
Resolution Ensemble Forecast
(HREF), BUFR, and SPC hourly
max, fire wx and 80m agl fields.
00Z
12Z Guam
00Z
12Z
4.0 km WRF-NMM
5.15 km WRF-ARW
48 hr fcsts from both
Unless there are hurricanes
00Z
12Z
Expanded
PR/Hispaniola
domain
06Z
• Now on NOMADS & ftp server 06Z
18Z
• NOW on SBN/NOAAPORT too !!!
• Daily displays of these runs can be seen at:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ and
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nestpage/
• Matt Pyle’s full CONUS NMM runs [ /00 or /12 ] for SPC can be seen at
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/
New Output Fields from HiResW
[also added to NAM and soon to GFS]
• Hourly maxima of:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
1000 m reflectivity
updraft velocity
downdraft velocity
updraft helicity
10 m wind speed
2 m temperature
2 m RH
• Hourly minima of:
– 2 m temperature
– 2 m RH
•
•
•
•
•
80 m AGL U + V wind
80 m AGL temperature
80 m AGL spec humidity
80 m AGL pressure
Radar echo top height (18
dBZ level)
• Richardson Number based
PBL height
• Ventilation Rate
• Transport Wind
9
HiResWindow WRF v3.1+ Configurations
(No Parameterized Convection)
Dynamic Core
WRF-NMM
WRF-ARW
Horizontal Spacing
4.0 km
5.1 km
Vertical Domain
35 levels 50 mb top
Sigma-Pressure
35 levels 50 mb top
Sigma
PBL/Turbulence
MYJ
YSU
Microphysics
Ferrier
WSM3
Land-Surface
NOAH
NOAH
Radiation
(Shortwave/Longwave)
GFDL/GFDL
Lacis-Hansen/Fels-Schwartzkopf
Advection of Passive
Variables
Conservative Positive
Definite
Dudhia/RRTM
Monotonic Positive
Definite
10
HiResWindow Evaluations
• HPC liked it (acceptable qpf bias), but
• SPC didn’t like it (anemic storm structure)
… sigh …
• Mitigation for SPC: Matt Pyle will continue to
run twice daily WRF-NMM runs with the old
passive advection scheme (but using v3.3
eventually). Matt Pyle Webpage
11
Plans For 2012-13 HiResWindow
•
•
•
•
Upgrade ARW to WRF version 3.3
Replace WRF-NMM with NEMS-NMMB
Increase resolution to ~3 km
Expand to full CONUS
– CONUS, Hawaii & Guam at 00z and 12z
– Alaska, Puerto Rico-Hispaniola at 06z and 18z
– How soon can AWIPS distribution adapt to this?
• Improve Initialization of HiResWindow runs
– GSI using all available data & mini-NDAS
– GSI adapted specially for Level II winds
– Digital filter with Level II reflectivity (ala RUC/RR)
• Some or all of the above
• Replace HREF product stream with routine
construction of HRRRE-TL
12
There is Agreement & Commitment on a
‘One NOAA’ Modeling Framework
• This goes back to the first days of Admiral L.
• The ultimate target is a completed NOAA
framework of ESMF components within which
NOAA scientists can work efficiently
• Consistency with NUOPC is expected as well
• NCEP has been building NEMS for this purpose
• Community involvement is expected / encouraged
• Support for ESMF has moved permanently from
NCAR/SCD to NOAA/ESRL
13
NEMS Component Structure
MAIN
All boxes represent
ESMF components.
NEMS
Ensemble
Coupler
NEMS
LAYER
EARTH(1:NM)
Below the first dashed
line, the source codes
are organized by the
model developers.
Atm
Ocean
NMM
Ice
GFS
FIM
ARW
Nest Domains(1:ND)
Wrt
Dyn
Solver
Phy
GOCART
Wrt
Dyn
common physics
layer
WRF
Chem
Phy
Wrt
Dyn
WRF
Chem
Phy
14
Wrt
Runtime & optimal node apportionment for NMMB nesting with a
Fire Wx nest over CONUS (30 nodes): 12 hr fcst in 1619 s [Matt Pyle]
12 km parent 3/30 or 10%
6 km
Alaska nest
2/30 or 7%
4 km CONUS nest
17/30 or 57%
3 km
Hawaii
nest
1.5/30
or 5%
1.33 km
CONUS
FireWx
nest 5/30
or 17%
3 km Puerto
Rico nest
15
1.5/30 or 5%
WRF-NMM takes 3.6 times longer to run comparable nesting with
Fire Wx nest over CONUS (30 nodes): 12 hr fcst in 5857 s [Matt Pyle]
12 km parent 30/30 or 100%
4 km*
Alaska nest
30/30 or
100%
4 km CONUS nest
30/30 or 100%
4 km*
Hawaii
nest
30/30 or
100%
1.33 km
CONUS
FireWx
nest 30/30
or 100%
4 km* Puerto
Rico nest
16
30/30 or 100%
More Stats Showing Improved
Computational Speed & Efficiency
• Runtime for NAM with 5 nests on 72 nodes:
Current opnl code: > 4 hours
New code: 70 minutes
• New NAM is doing 11 times more work than
the current NAM, but uses only 7.7 times more
compute resources!
• IBM estimates the NMMB will easily scale to
at least 24,000 processors (if we could ever get them)
17
Why Does NMMB Run So Much Faster?
Runtimes
NMMB
NMM
1619 s
5857 s
3.6 x faster
Contribution to
speed up
New Model
Dynamics
NMMB
NMM
~2%
Infrastructure
NEMS
WRF
~2%
Nesting
• NMMB specific
• Outside of the
NEMS infrastructure
• Processor
apportionment
• 1-way nests solved
simultaneously
• ~Core independent*
• Part of the WRF
infrastructure
• No processor
apportionment
• 1-way nests solved
sequentially
~96%
Horizontal
resolution stepdown ratio
Any integer ratio,
e.g. 2:1, 3:1, 4:1, …
Only 3:1*
0% - this relates
to flexibility, not
speed18
Hypothetical NMMB Simultaneous Run
Global [with Igor & Julia] and NAM [with CONUS nest]
12 km NAM NMMB
4 km NAM-nest NMMB
12 km NAM NMMB
27 km Global NMMB
9 km Julia NMMB
9 km Igor NMMB
27 km Global NMMB
Hypothetical NMMB Simultaneous Run
• This graphic demonstrates both where we are with NMMB
nesting and where we want to go.
• This loop was made by super-imposing just two NMMB runs:
– NAM with a fixed CONUS nest (it could have included Alaska, Puerto
Rico-Hispaniola and a Fire Weather nest too)
– global NMMB with two movable nests for Igor and Julia (it could have
included a movable nest inside Igor and/or Julia as well)
• This is all done with one-way interactive lateral boundaries,
but if you took away the heavy black grid outlines, you'd be
hard pressed to pick out where they were.
• Once the nesting is generalized, everything in the loop will be
doable in a single NMMB executable.
• Greatly facilitates running global and regional forecasts
concurrently which is our goal in the JPSS era when sat obs
are to be delivered quickly enough to start global & regional20at
the earlier regional time.
October 2011
NAM Upgrade
Current NAM
•
•
•
•
WRF-NMM (E-grid)
4/Day = 6 hr update
Forecasts to 84 hours
12 km horizontal grid
spacing
New NAM see briefings here & here
•
•
•
•
NEMS based NMMB
B-grid replaces E-grid
Parent remains 12 km to 84 hr
Four Fixed Nests Run to 60 hr
– 4 km CONUS nest
– 6 km Alaska nest
– 3 km HI & PR nests
• Single placeable 1.33km or 1.5 km
FireWeather/IMET/DHS run to 36hr
21
NPS & Changes to NDAS
• NEMS Preprocessing System
(NPS) for NMMB (Matt Pyle)
– To create the first guess at the
start of the NDAS (at time T12hr), NPS uses GFS spectral
coefficients rather than postprocessed pressure level fields on
a 1 deg lat/lon grid as has to be
done with WRF Preprocessing
System (WPS)
– Lateral boundary conditions also
based on GFS spectral
coefficients (as is done in current
NAM but not in WRF REAL)
• Changes to the NAM Data
Assimilation System (NDAS)
– First guess at T-12 reflects
relocation of tropical cyclones
– Use of 1/12th deg SST
(RTG_SST_HR) in place of ½ deg
– GSI updates 2 m temperature &
moisture and 10 m winds with
portion of 1st layer correction
– Updated background errors for
NMMB
– 5X divergence damping in NMMB
in NDAS only
22
Much Better NDAS First Guess [vs RAOBs]
Z
T
March
2011
Black/
Solid =
Opnl
V
Red /
Dash =
Parallel
RH
23
Scaled down BMJ convection for NMMB nests
• Different model forecast customers interpret highresolution guidance differently (e.g. HPC vs SPC)
• With the NMMB implementation in NAM, an effort
was made to satisfy both camps – sorta kinda.
• New scaling factor in the BMJ allows for relaxation
toward moister profiles in finer grid-spacing runs:
– Smaller modification of thermodynamic profiles
– Goal is to improve QPF performance in nests without
destroying fine-scale forecast structure
24
6 km NMMB nest
48 h total precip ending 20100722/00Z
w/o parameterized convection
Max precip = 4.91”
SPC likes it, but HPC hates it.
w/ scaled down BMJ convection
Max precip = 3.39”
HPC loves it, but SPC hates it.
More acceptance by SPC after anemic vertical
velocities are corrected with bug fix in August. 25
Non Severe Weather Applications of the NAM 4km Nest
• The NAM nests were not designed or tuned to provide the severe
weather guidance needed by SPC
• The NAM nests were designed to provide NWS WFOs and other
users with basic weather guidance, e.g. QPF
• The nest resolutions were selected to match the NDFD grids on
which WFOs produce their gridded forecasts
• Currently, the NAM-DNG WFOs use to initialize their GFE, is
downscaled from NAM’s 12 km to local NDFD resolutions [5.92.5 km] by the not-so-accurately-named “smartinit” processing
• Having NAM nests will mean very little (if any) downscaling will
be needed to produce NAM-DNG
26
Dissemination of NAM Nests via NAM-DNG
• NAM-DNG is already distributed to WFOs via AWIPS-SBN
and thus available to private sector users via NOAAPORT.
This is the primary distribution mechanism for NAM nest fields
including QPF and newly added simulated reflectivity.
• Also available on ftp servers and NOMADS. Viewable from
Eric Rogers’ most excellent webpages.
• New double resolution NAM-DNG grids will be made for
CONUS and Alaska which anticipate the future move of NDFD
to those resolutions and recognize & support the fact that a
majority of WFOs are already doing their forecast prep at those
double resolutions.
• NWS/HQ, the OSIP/TOC/SBN enterprise, NCO & EMC have
geared up to distribute the new NAM-DNG grids. Only
remaining choke-point is at the TOC.
27
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/
28
NOAA/ARL’s HYSPLIT
Dispersion Model
• Wild-fire smoke applications driven by NAM, NAM
nests & FireWx IMETSupport runs via
NOAA/ARL’s READY-testbed site
• Example for March 11, 2011 fires in Central OK:
Harrah and Chatow counties
Irene Assessment
Placeable FWIS Nest in NAM Parallel
• This is a fixed nest run at 1.33 km resolution
within the 4km CONUS NAM nest.
• First placement was outside the NAM’s CONUS
nest and failed.
• Eric Rogers ran 24th 12z case over the counter
• Starting with 18z run 8/25 FWIS was placed by
SDM ahead of (initially) or over Irene (later sadly)
as it moved up the east coast.
Convergence of NAM & RR into
hourly NARRE & HRRRE
• There is a signed agreement between NCEP/EMC and
ESRL/GSD to build an hourly updated NARRE
• Based on NEMS common modeling infrastructure
• Ensembles:
• Sample uncertainty within membership
• Initial & Lateral Boundary conditions
• Dynamics & Physics
•Provide full description of uncertainty
•Can adapt to rapidly evolving science of underlying
data assimilation and modeling
NAM
•
•
•
•
NEMS based NMMB
Bgrid replaces Egrid
Parent remains at 12 km to 84 hr
Multiple Nests Run to 60hr
– 4 km CONUS nest
– 6 km Alaska nest
– 3 km HI & PR nests
• Reinstate Fire Weather/IMET
Support/DHS run to 36hr
– Locate a single 1.33-1.5 km run
– In either CONUS or Alaska
2012
Rapid Refresh
• WRF-based ARW
• NCEP’s GSI analysis
• Expanded 13 km Domain
to include Alaska
• Experimental 3 km HRRR
WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010
RUC-13 CONUS domain
Original CONUS domain
Experimental 3 km HRRR
34
34
2015-2016?
North American Rapid Refresh
ENSEMBLE (NARRE)
•
•
•
•
NMMB (from NCEP) & ARW (from ESRL) dynamic cores
Common use of NEMS infrastructure and GSI analysis
Common NAM parent domain at 10-12 km
Initially ~6 member ensemble made up of equal numbers of
NMMB- & ARW-based configurations
• Hourly updated with forecasts to 24 hours
• NMMB & ARW control data assimilation cycles with 3 hour
pre-forecast period (catch-up) with hourly updating
• NAM & SREF 84 hr forecasts are extensions of the 00z, 06z,
12z, & 18z runs – for continuity sake.
– SREF will be at same 10-12 km resolution as NARRE by then
– SREF will have 21 members plus 6 from NARRE for total of 27
• NARRE requires an increase in current HPCC funding
35
2017-2018?
High Resolution Rapid Refresh
ENSEMBLE (HRRRE)
• Each member of NARRE contains 3 km nests
– CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii & Puerto Rico/Hispaniola nests
– The two control runs initialized with radar data & other hi-res obs
• This capability puts NWS/NCEP[+OAR/ESRL] in a position to
– Provide NextGen Enroute AND Terminal guidance (FWIS-like)
– Provide PROBABILITY guidance with full Probability Density
Function specified, hence uncertainty information too
– Provide a vehicle to improve assimilation capabilities using hybrid
(EnKF+4DVar) technique with current & future radar & satellite
– Address Warn-on-Forecast as resolutions evolve towards ~1 km
• NAM nests are extensions of the 00z, 06z, 12z & 18Z runs.
• HRRRE requires an increase in HPCC funding over
and above that required for the NARRE
36
In the Meantime, Implement NARRE-TL*
North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE)
Time-Lagged [TL] System [courtesy of Binbin Zhou]
• Hourly updated 12/13km ensemble for aviation out to 12 hr
• Combines members from RR & NAM over CONUS & Alaska
• NARRE-TL example member combination for 06z cycle run
4 NAM cycles (6z & previous 0z, 18z and 12z)
6 RR cycles (6z & previous 5z, 4z, 3z, 2z, and 1z)
Member Weighting = 1 - forecast range (hr)/30:
RR
NAM
06
12
18
21
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
00
*To be implemented with the Rapid Refresh in Q2FY2012, replaces VSREF
37
High Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble
(HRRRE) Time-Lagged [TL] System
• Take advantage of 5 existing convection allowing runs
• Example: 14 member combination for 06Z cycle run
4 NAM-nest (6z & previous 0z, 18z and 12z)
2 HRW-ARW cycles (previous 0z and 12z)*
2 HRW-NMM cycles (previous 0z and 12z)*
2 Pyle-SPC cycles (previous 0z and 12z)
4 HRRR cycles (6z & previous 5z, 4z and 3z) **
NAM-N:NMMB
HRW: ARW
HRW: NMM
P-SPC:NMM
06
HRRR
12
18
21
00
*Eastern 2/3 of CONUS for now
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
**runs to 15 hr only
00
38
Next steps for NARRE-TL & HRRRE-TL
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Build them and run them in/off parallels
Share with users including NWS, AWC, CoSPA & FAA
Perform Verifications
Icing vs CIP (Current Icing Product)
Reflectivity, Echo Top and VIL
Lightning?
Combine with AFWA’s 10 member 4 km ensemble for CONUS
• Combine with hybrid approach (at least)
• Implement HRRRE-TL as replacement for HREF
•
•
•
Pursue use of cluster analysis to find most meaningful SREF
members for hybrid approach
Frequency matching bias correction & Other promising post
processing techniques
Ultimately, more computing is needed to allow more convection
allowing forecast runs to reduce our dependence on time-lagged
members
Brilliant Minds Think Alike
• Israel Jirak from SPC constructed Storm Scale Ensemble of
Opportunity (SSEO), comprised of 7 convection-allowing members
from 00 UTC:
NSSL WRF-ARW (01),
HRW WRF-ARW East (02),
HRW WRF-ARW East 12-hr time lag (03),
CONUS WRF-NMM (04),
HRW WRF-NMM East (05),
HRW WRF-NMM East 12-hr time lag (06),
NMMB-Nest (07).
I know Israel also put together a 12 UTC run, where the membership
changes a bit. Also, SSEO only coverd the eastern CONUS domain
since that is what is covered by current HiResWindow.
Figure 1. Experimental model performance based on participant feedback
from subjective evaluation surveys conducted during the QPF component of
the 2011 HWT Spring Experiment. Experimental deterministic models were
compared to the operational 12km NAM while experimental ensembles (SSEO
and SSEF) were compared to the operational SREF.
2011 HWT Spring Experiment
High Resolution Model Performance Compared to the
NAM/SREF
100%
90%
80%
Percentage
70%
42/68
60%
39/63
31/56
37/69
50%
30/67
25/69
40%
20%
18/67
16/56
30%
29/69
22/57
16/63
14/69
11/57
9/68
10%
0%
SSEO
NCEP
NMMB nest
SSEF
NSSL WRFNCEP
HRMOS
ARW
HRW-NMM continuous
Models
improved guidance worse guidance
NCEP
NMMB
Google Map of 4 RTMA Domains
First Phase of Analysis of Record
Courtesy of Yan Zheng
University of Utah
Real Time Mesoscale Analysis
10 m wind + est. anal. uncertainty
2m Temperature + est.anal.unc.
2m dew point + est.anal.unc.
Sfc pressure + est.anal.uncertainty
1 hr precip (Stage 2)
GOES Eff. Cloud Amount
Analyzed
every
hour on
the NWS’
NDFD
grids
RTMA - Really Good News
• Thanks to the efforts of Jamie Vavra (OST),
OSIP approval has been obtained to declare
RTMA operational.
• The vote was unanimous with all regions in
attendance.
• RTMA is considered to have met its FOC
conditions.
• Continued effort by NCEP/EMC to improve it
and extend it to more variables is assumed.
RTMA Winter 2011-12 UPGRADE PACKAGE
To Follow Rapid Refresh
- Expand CONUS RTMA-2.5km domain further north into
Canada to provide support for Northwest RFC
- Double the resolution for Alaska RTMA from 6 => 3km
- Add Juneau RTMA at 1.5km resolution
- Add routine cross-validation to RTMA runs
- Other RTMA Enhancements (blended first guess, analysis of
wind gust, visibility, analysis error, use/reject lists, etc.)
EXPANDED CONUS RTMA-2.5km
NWRFC
NDFD CONUS
Add Support of the Northwest RFC by expanding the CONUS 2.5km domain northern boundary from 51 N to 56 N. In practice,
added 220 pts in y-direction. Produce two GRIB2 files: One for true
NDFD CONUS and the other for NWRFC domain.
Contours:
terrain in
meters
NDFD
Alaska-3km
ALASKA RTMA
- Change spatial resolution from 6km to 3-km (doubling the resolution
like was done last year for CONUS)
- Blend forecasts from Rapid
Refresh and NAM to make first
guess (work in progress)
- Make mesonet observation accept
list (Levine)
JUNEAU RTMA
-New system at 1.5-km resolution.
Juneau-1.5km
ROUTINELY COMPUTE CROSS-VALIDATION
- Make multiple disjoint datasets for each ob type, each containing about
10% of the data but uniformly distributed. Datasets contain representative
data from all the geographical regions observed but without the
redundancy of close pairs or tight clusters
- Constructed with the help of Hilbert curve
- For each analysis, randomly pick one of the disjoint datasets to use for
cross-validation
Other RTMA Enhancements
• Add blending of first guess 10m winds with 10m winds
from Hurricane WRF to improve handling of tropical
systems.
- Add analysis of wind gust & horizontal visibility
- Improve global rescaling of analysis uncertainty
- Synchronize all RTMA applications (RTMA CONUS,
Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and Guam) to use the same
code and features (e.g. FGAT, bias correction, improved
observation accept and reject lists)
Future Plans for RTMA, AoR & DNG
• Use HiResWindow as first guess for Guam
• Expand RTMA variables: sea-level pressure, cloud amount,
cloud base height, PBL height, etc.
• Add GLERL coastal observation adjustment to increase ob
density along coast of (at least) Great Lakes
• Improve wind analyses over oceans (sat winds)
• Apply non-linear quality control within the GSI
• Bias correct 1st guess prior to applying smartinit
• Pursue dynamical methods sensitive to terrain for downscaling
the wind
• Pursue Delayed Mesoscale Analysis (now funded)
• Apply DNG to RUC
• Add/Fix Weather Type for DNG NAM & GFS
49
• Retire DGEX [once DNG-NAM beats it]
Thanks!
Any
QUESTIONS?
50
B A C K U P
S L I D E S
51
Air Quality Modeling Progress
Meteorological Model Coupling
• Coupled with NEMS-NMM-B for
all CMAQ domains (CONUS, AK, HI)
CMAQ Model (Developmental testing)
• Included wild fire smoke sources
• Retrospective tests of 4 km CMAQ driven by NAMB nest
• Real-time testing of AIRNOW PM data assimilation
HYSPLIT Regional Model
• Experimental interim dust system over CONUS
• Improvements to Volcanic Ash and RSMC Capabilities
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Air Quality Modeling
FY12 Plans
Upgrade to CMAQ V4.7
• Update Emissions from 2008 NEI, include smoke
• Tight grid coupling w/ NAM-B
• Improved gas/aerosol mechanisms
• Implement surface PM data assimilation
Global NGAC
• Implement on-line dust system
Developmental Testing
• 4 km NAM-B nest coupling
• NGAC full PM LBC coupling with CMAQ
• Surface O3 and GOES/MODIS AOD data assimilation
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Air Quality Implementation Matrix
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