Climate Change 101
CSI: Climate Status
Investigations
Teacher Training Institute
April 16-21, 2008
Everything I know about climate change
I learned at the movies…
1995
2004
Everything I know about climate change
I learned at the movies…
1995
2004
2006
Presentation Outline
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The Greenhouse Effect
Where Does Our Energy Come From?
Emissions
Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes
Future Trends
Source: EPA Global Warming site.
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/climate.html
Effects of Different Greenhouse Gases
CO2
CH4
N2O
CF4
SF6
Global Warming
Potential (GWP)
1
21
310
6,500
23,900
Atmospheric Lifetime
(years)
50-200
12
114
>50,000 3,200
Pre-industrial
Concentration (ppm)
280
0.722
0.270
40
0
Atmospheric
Concentration (ppm)
381
1.774
0.319
80
5.4
Rate of Concentration
Change (ppm/yr)
1,610
0.005
0.0007
1.0
(ppt/yr)
0.23
(ppt/yr)
Source: US EPA: US Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports 2008
http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html
CONVERSION CHARTS
1 unit carbon (C) = 3.6667 or 44/12 units carbon dioxide (CO2)
1 unit CO2 = 0.2727 or 12/44 units C
Converting methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) to equivalent CO2 and C units:
• Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CO2 = 1
• GWP of CH4 = 21 (over 100-year time period -- IPCC Third Assessment Report)
• GWP of N2O = 310 (over 100-year time period -- IPCC Third Assessment Report)
EXAMPLE: (100 metric tons of N2O)x(310) = 31,000 metric tons of CO2 Equivalents x
12/44 = 8,454 metric tons of Carbon Equivalents x 2204/2000 = 9,316 short tons C
Converting mass units (e.g., short tons, metric tons, teragrams)
1 metric ton (tonne) = 1,000 kilograms (kg) = 2,204 lbs
1 short ton = 0.9072 metric tons = 2,000 lbs
1 Teragram (Tg) = 1012 grams = 1 million (106) metric tons
1 Gigaton (Gt) = 1 Petagram (Pg) = 1015 grams = 1 billion (109) metric tons
Presentation Outline
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The Greenhouse Effect
Where Does Our Energy Come From?
Emissions
Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes
Future Trends
Fossil Fuels
World’s Dominant Energy Source
United States (2005)
100 QBtu/yr (1.06e14 MJ)
86% Fossil Energy
Gas
23%
Coal
23%
World (2005)
462 Quads/yr (4.87e14 MJ)
86% Fossil Energy
Gas
23%
Coal
26%
Nuclear
8%
Nuclear 6%
Hydro 3%
Oil
41%
Other
renewable
(solar, wind,
geothermal,
biomass) 3%
Oil
37%
Renewables
8%
World Data from International Energy Outlook 2007 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html.
U.S. Data from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/fuel.html
Fossil Energy - America’s Energy Foundation
2005
Oil 40%
100 Quads
Renewables
6%
Coal
26%
Fossil fuels provide
86% of energy
Gas
20%
Nuclear 7%
2030
Oil 41%
Coal
23%
Gas
23%
131 Quads
Renewables 6%
Nuclear 8%
By 2030, reliance on
fossil fuels remains
stable at 86%
Source: AEO 2007
Renewable Energy Consumption –
Growing Fast, But From a Small Base
Hydro, 3.0
Biomass, 3.2
Wind, 1.2
Solar, 0.0
2005
Geothermal,
0.8
6.3 Quads
Wind, 0.1
Muni Waste,
0.4
Hydro, 2.7
Biofuels, 5.1
Solar, 0.0
Geothermal,
0.3
2030
Muni Waste,
0.4
13.7 Quads
Biofuels, 0.6
Biomass, 2.2
Source: AEO 2008
Presentation Outline
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The Greenhouse Effect
Where Does Our Energy Come From?
Emissions
Correlation with
Monitored Climate Changes
• Future Trends
All Fossil Fuels & Energy Sectors
Contribute CO2 Emissions
United States Carbon Dioxide Emissions
(By Source & Sector)
Transportation
32%
Industry
29%
Residential
21%
Commercial
18%
Natural Gas
20%
Coal
36%
Oil
44%
AEO2007
CO2 & CH4 - The Primary GHG Contributors
United States Greenhouse Gas Emissions
(Equivalent Global Warming Basis)
Other CO2
2%
Methane
9%
CO2 from
Energy
83%
Nitrous Oxide
5%
HFCs, PFCs, SF6
2%
“EIA Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the U.S.: 2005”
Carbon Intensity is Falling…
Carbon Intensity
By Region, 2001-2025
(Metric Tons of C Equivalent per Million $1997)
World Carbon Dioxide Emissions
By Region, 2001-2025
(Million Metric Tons of C Equivalent)
…But Carbon Dioxide
Emissions are Growing
Different Concentration Levels are Possible
3,500
Million Tonnes Carbon
3,000
2,500
WRE 450
WRE 550
WRE 650
NETL 2003
BAU
Delay 550
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1990
2005
2020
2035
2050
2065
2080
2095
Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004
Billion tonnes Carbon (1900-2100)
Stabilization Requires a
Budget
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
450
550
ppm
650
750
Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004
The Budget is Disappearing
Cumulative carbon emissions 1900-2100 (GtC)
Spent
Remaining
2040
809
5
Budget for 450 ppm Stabilization
Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004
Presentation Outline
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The Greenhouse Effect
Where Does Our Energy Come From?
Emissions
Correlation with
Monitored Climate Changes
• Future Trends
Atmospheric Concentrations are Rising…
CO2 Concentrations On The Rise
350
300
Temperature Change
from Present (oC)
CO2 (Vostok)
250
200
2
0
DTatm (Vostok)
-2
-4
200
150
100
50
Time Before Present (kyr)
0
CO2 Concentration
(ppmv)
(~280 ppm to 370 ppm over last 100 years)
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics.htm
Presentation Outline
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The Greenhouse Effect
Where Does Our Energy Come From?
Emissions
Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes
Future Trends
Possible harbingers…
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Rising sea levels
Spreading disease
Earlier spring arrival
Plant and animal range shifts
and population changes
Coral reef bleaching
Permafrost melting
Downpours, heavy
snowfalls, and flooding
Droughts and fires
Permafrost and polar ice are melting…
Source: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov and National Climatic Data Center, NOAA
Precipitation is erratic
Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA
Significant Climate Anomalies
Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA