Computing SubLHIN
Population Projections
in the South East Region
August 2014 Update
Why Population
Projections at SubLHIN level?

Planning health services cannot be accomplished with only LHIN level
data. Variation in socio-economic, health status, health behaviors and
access patterns exists at SubLHIN geography.

Population projections serve as the basis for determining the future
demand for services.
Approach for
Computing Projections
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Designed for review and comparison with municipal planning initiatives
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Methodology
 Cohort component with migration and MOF adjustments
 Cohort component with migration but no MOF adjustment
 (Options without migration are no longer considered)
MOF: Alignment to projections from Ontario Ministry of Finance
Projection Specifications
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Period
 Census Years - 2011, 2016, 2021 (ReCAP)
 Interpolate annually for inter-census periods 2012-2015 and 20172020
Geography
 SE LHIN 15 SubLHIN regions, 7 Health Links
Sex
Age group (0-4, 5-9, … , 80-84, 85+)
Cohort Component Method
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Assumes components of population change remain constant for the
duration of the projection
Main components are mortality, fertility and migration
To project age/sex population cohort Pt+n , n year period after census at
time t, where census population cohort is Pt , subtract estimated deaths
(D), add estimated births (B) and add estimated net migration (M)
Pt+n = Pt – D + B + M
Extend method for subsequent periods
Method can also consider changes in employment, labour force, industry
or housing (not currently implemented).
Original methodology reviewed by Dr. Eric Moore, Retired Professor of
Demography, Queen’s University (Recap 2008)
Data Sources
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CSD level census counts – 2001, 2006 and 2011
 Statistics Canada
CSD level population estimates – 2006-2013
 Ministry of Finance (Intellihealth)
CD and LHIN level population projections – 2013-2021
 Ministry of Finance (Intellihealth)
CSD level death counts– 2002-2011
 Ontario Registrar General (Intellihealth)
CSD level birth counts– 2007-2011
 Ontario Registrar General (Intellihealth)
Projecting the
Survived Population

In order to have sufficient representation, mortality (and survival) was
computed at the Health Link level using an aggregation of deaths over a 5 year
period (2006-2010)

Health Link mortality rates were applied to respective SubLHINs
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Mortality rates were based on the average annual number of deaths and the
average annual population. A Five-year survival rate is calculated.

Assume overall 5 year age group survival rates apply to individual ages within
group (except <1 year and 85+)
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Apply survival rates to population estimates for 2011 and survived population
for subsequent years
Calculating Mortality Rates


2011 Data quality issues – data not used
Downward trend: use most recent 5 years instead of 10 years
Survival Rates (%) by Health Link
(Data Source: Ontario Vital Statistics Death Database 2006-2010)
Projecting Births

Estimate average annual age-specific fertility rates and sex ratio at birth by
region/sex/age group using most currently available birth data (2007 to 2011 from
Ontario Registrar General)

Assume computed age-specific fertility rates and sex ratio remain constant for the
projection period
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Assume overall 5 year age group fertility rates apply to individual ages within group
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Apply fertility rates to surviving women of child bearing age to determine expected
number of births
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Apply sex ratio to distribute expected number of births by sex and subLHIN (2007 – 2011
births)
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Apply survival rates to expected male and female births to determine final projected
number of births
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Apply Perth, Smiths Falls fertility rates for Lanark Highlands (Champlain LHIN)
Age-specific Fertility
Rates by SubLHIN, 2007-2011
Adjustment
for Census Under coverage

Census is affected by net under coverage error: difference between
under coverage (people who are missed) and over coverage (people
counted more than once or should not be counted)

The 2011 Census Estimates from Stats Canada are already adjusted for
net under coverage and no further adjustments are made for
projections.
Projecting
Net Migration using Residual Method

Estimate average annual rate of net migration by region/sex/age group
using population difference between 2006 and 2011 census, after
accounting for births and deaths

Assume net migration rates remain constant for the projection period
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Assume 5 year age group net migration rates apply to individual ages
within group
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Apply net migration rates to survived population and projected number of
births
South East SubLHIN
Net Migration Rates (%), 2006-2011
Additional Adjustments

Separate projections for Tyendinaga Mohawk (previously incompletely
enumerated in Census) is no longer necessary. Census 2011 has made the
adjustment for incomplete enumeration.
 Projections computed using growth rates 2006-2011
Additional Adjustments

Alignment to projections from Ontario Ministry of Finance
 Requirement to ensure comparability with other computations at
provincial level
 Align/ reconcile subLHIN projections on County level if possible (only
Prince Edward County relates to subLHIN 1:1)
 The balance of the subLHINs is reconciled to balance of LHIN
projections by the MOF.
 Lanark Highlands (Champlain LHIN) projections are not reconciled with
MOF (data not available)
Computing Projections for
Intermediate Years
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Compute Projections using cohort component method for 2011, 2016 and
2021
Assume constant growth by subLHIN, sex and age group for inter-censal
periods.
Population Projections for SE LHIN
Comparisons of 3 sets of projections
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Final Proj (2012): After MOF reconciliation (to LHIN level projections)
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Before MOF reconciliation (2014): based on births, deaths and migration only
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Final Proj 2014: After MOF reconciliation (to LHIN level projections, PEC to
County level projections)
Population Projections for SE LHIN
Comparisons of 3 sets of projections by subLHIN, age group and year (2012, 2016,
2021)
1 of 5
Population Projections for SE LHIN
Comparisons of 3 sets of projections by subLHIN, age group and year (2012, 2016,
2021)
2 of 5
Population Projections for SE LHIN
Comparisons of 3 sets of projections by subLHIN, age group and year (2012, 2016,
2021)
3 of 5
Population Projections for SE LHIN
Comparisons of 3 sets of projections by subLHIN, age group and year (2012, 2016,
2021)
4 of 5
Population Projections for SE LHIN
Comparisons of 3 sets of projections by subLHIN, age group and year (2012, 2016,
2021)
5 of 5
Population Projections for SE LHIN
Results
Please forward any questions or comments to:
Dirk Hogewoning
Database Developer & Decision Support Consultant
South East Local Health Integration Network
Email: dirk.hogewoning@lhins.on.ca