*
Stephen Bradforth
* Do you believe there actually is an energy
crisis?
*
* Intend to engage in shaping energy future
* Concerned but powerless
* Not a big deal – it will take care of itself
*
* The rush for the remaining planetary oil and gas
resources and decisions on cutting carbon emissions
versus economic growth will define 21st century
geopolitics, the condition of our planet and, quite
possibly, whether there is sustained peace or a new
cycle of world wars. Decisions about the energy supply
will inevitably determine the quality of life for us all.
* The goal of this freshman seminar is for you to be
armed with sufficient tools to understand the science
behind alternative energy sources, what is possible and
what is not and who to believe so you can help shape
solutions to this defining issue for our century.
*
IS92a scenario
1990: 12 TW
2050: 28 TW
*
"We are like tenant farmers
chopping down the fence around
our house for fuel when we should
be using Nature’s inexhaustible
sources of energy—sun, wind and
tide. I’d put my money on the sun
and solar energy. What a source of
power! I hope we don’t have to
wait until oil and coal run out
before we tackle that.”
Thomas Edison, 1931
*
Renewables 2%:
Biomass and waste 62%
Wind 22%
Geothermal 11%
Solar 1%
Tide and Wave 0%
excluding hydro
Hydro
16%
Nuclear
16%
Gas
20 %
Coal
40%
Oil
7%
• Fossil fuels are still used to
generate 67% of the electricity
in the world.
• We are on downward side of
global oil production and oil
prices are now incredibly
sensitize to any political
situation, driving recessions
and prices of food
• Climate change from CO2
production is a threat to our
way of life (at least according
to scientists…)
“I do believe that the issue of global warming has
been politicized. I think there are a substantial
number of scientists who have manipulated data
so that they will have dollars rolling into their
projects… I think we're seeing it almost weekly or
even daily, scientists who are coming forward and
questioning the original idea that man-made
global warming is what is causing the climate to
change” Rick Perry, Texas Governor and GOP candidate for President
“If I
compare the downsides of coal
versus nuclear, I have to say I'd rather
see renewed investment in nuclear
power”
Prof. Steven Chu, Nobel Laureate, in spring
2008 (well before he became US Secretary
of Energy)
FOSSIL FUELS
Clean Coal ?
*Coal
*Oil
*Natural Gas
*Nuclear
Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, March 2011
*
The world uses 1 cubic mile of oil every year!
*
from Rubin “Why your world is about to get a whole lot smaller”
(2009)
“With supply dwindling and demand rising, you can expect scarcity.
Scarcity mean high prices. You can expect triple digit oil prices in the
near future. Yes, that means price at the pump is going to go up. Count
on it. In the US, that should translate into as much as $7-per gallon
gasoline…. But it will also hurt you in lots of ways you may not be
thinking about.
…
Your food in particular is going to cost a lot more – in fact it is already
getting more expensive all the time. The stuff you burn on your car is the
same thing the farmer in Iowa needs to plant and harvest corn. It is the
same stuff that powers the trucks and planes and ships that move
everything around, the same stuff that is used for the petrochemical
industry that produces our plastics and pharmaceuticals. …. Some
difficult choices lie ahead.”
*And he’s not even considering oil and natural gas contribution to
electricity supply!
FOSSIL FUELS
* Coal
* Oil
* Natural Gas
* Nuclear
* Biomass
RENEWABLES
* Hydroelectric
* Geothermal
* Solar
* Wind
* Tidal/Wave
*
* Do you think that our lifestyles will have to
dramatically change?
* How likely is a major war about the global energy
supply?
* Do you think global warming is real and how worried
are you that this will dramatically affect the planet
during your lifetime?
* Are you confident renewable fuels can bridge the gap
(and fast enough to head off shortage in supply)?
*
*
*
The Greenland ice sheet
*
* Do you think that our lifestyles will have to
dramatically change?
* How likely is a major war about the global energy
supply?
* Do you think global warming is real and how worried
are you that this will dramatically affect the planet
during your lifetime?
* Are you confident renewable fuels can bridge the gap
(and fast enough to head off shortage in supply)?
Discussion
* Do you believe scientists? And if so, why?
* What do you think about politicization of science?
* Do you believe/hope/pray some advance in technology
will get us out of this hole?
* How confused are you by all the information you
currently get?
*
"The cleanest and cheapest kilowatt-hour
is the one we do not have to produce”
Jim Rogers, the CEO of Duke Energy – America’s thirdlargest coal consumer
What is this?
But clotheslines are un-American!
In the United States, 92% of single family
homes had a dryer in 2005.
80% of US households use a dryer for
between 2 and 9 loads per week.
Less than 4% of Italian households own a
dryer.
Source LaundryList.org
*
Gas
Total: 13.2 TW
Hydro
Renew
U.S.: 3.2 TW
*
Power
1
1W
103
1 kW
106
1 MW
109
1 GW
1012
1 TW
• We will meet next Tuesday
• Bookmark this class web site
• Download the “Sustainable Energy – without the Hot Air” from link on class web
site.
• I’ve posted assigned reading on the fate of oil. Read before class!