Colombian Program On Technological
And Industrial Foresight:
Achievemens And Perspectives
Javier Medina Vásquez
Full Professor, Universidad del Valle
Head of the National Program on
Technological and Industrial Foresight
Colciencias – Colombia
“Second International Seville Seminar on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impact on Policy and Decision-Making”.
IPTS, Seville (Spain) , 28-29 September, 2006
1. COLOMBIAN
CONTEXT
Colombia: Foresight Trajectory
Results
Accummulation

The country has a respected
Foresight tradition and trajectory
in Latin America

+ 30 Plans for Territorial Development
(Departaments + Municipialities)
+ 20 Strategic Plans for Universities
25 Regional Agendas of SC+T
10 Technological Exercises

18 Technological Exercises in action
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Colombia is considered as a
reference point for the Andean
Zone and its social dynamic in
Foresight is comparable to the
leading countries in America and
Europe.
Phases of the Colombian Process
+
STRATEGIC SECTORS
Capacity and
Knowledge required
FOCUS ON CAPABILITIES (2003-2004)
INCUBATION (2000-2002)
TRADITION AND TRAJECTORY (1970-1999)
-
2005-2006
+
Time
2. Transition Focus 2005-2006
2005-2006
2003-2004

Development
of national
capacities in
technological
and industrial
foresight

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Orientation of national
capacities in technological
and industrial foresight
for the development of
strategic areas in science,
technology and innovation.
These areas should be
applied to the knowledge
economy
Basic Components of the Program
Future Vision
Calls
Strategic
sectors
Data base of
Methods, case
studies
Agenda of
Activities
Platform
Training Sensibilitation WEB Site
Data
Base
Strategies of the National Program
on Industrial and Technological
Foresight
Strategies
Development of Nation’s Vision,
in transition toward society and
economy of knowledge
Technological watch and
foresight exercises
Analysis of Surroundings,
Delphi Exercise of strategic sectors,
Analysis of sector and territorial
transformation,
Scenarios & Strategies
Six exercises for
new STI areas in
Colciencias
Four exercises for
Excellence Centers
of Colciencias
Formation of Trainers & Social
Appropriation of Foresight
Knowledge
Sensitivity
Meetings
International
Seminars
Four exercises for
Agricultural
Productive Chains
Two demonstrative
exercises for Water &
Energy
Resources- Colciencias /SENA, Ley 344
3. Benefits of the focus shift:
Global Cooperation
Millenium Project
United Nations
University
World Futures
Studies Federation
Instituto PREST
(LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris
George
Washington
University
Georgia Tech
Triz XXI
Iale Tecnología

PREST: Ian Miles, Michel Keenan, Rafael Popper (2003-2005). (LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris: Michel
Godet (2005). WFSF: Fabienne Goux-Baudiment (2004). Millenium Project (UN): Jerome
Glenn (2005-2006). Georgia Tech: Alan Porter (2006), George Washington University: William
Halal (2003), Iale Tecnología: Pere Escorsa (2004-2005), Triz XXI: Fernando Palop, José Miguel
Vicente (2005)
Consolidation of Infrastructure: Unit for Technological
Watch and Competitive Intelligence

Remote
Access and Safety
Internet

Analysis of patents and
science-metric
and
semantic analysis
Prospective
Broadening of portfolio of foresight
methods and processes
The development of skills has been generated from a
process of accumulation of experiences, intellectual
production, processes, and methodologies.
The Program has progressively diversified its portfolio of
services:

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Executes pilot exercises
Strategic and demonstrative exercises
Sensitivity meetings on foresight and technological watch
designed for companies and conducted with local “strategic
partners”
Conferences by invitation only, and
Seminars for the Formation of Trainers motivated by the
Program Agenda.
During the process new practices have been introduced
Development of twelve (12) different
types of intervention in foresight

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Formulation of Strategic Re-orientation of a Program with governmental,
institutional, and entrepreneurial participation: National Bio-technology
Program
Exploration of a sector and re-direction of a centre for technological
development: CIDET – Electrical Sector
Construction of a cluster: Export Health - Valle del Cauca
Strategic Orientation of a sub-sector: Lacteous
Sector-territorial Orientation: Tourism in Cartagena, Fique (palm fiber) in
Santander
Exploration of expert opinion: Colciencias Thematic Areas
Development of skills and Agendas I+D+I: Excellence Centers
Strategic Re-orientation of a Public Institution: Fomipyme
Scenarios of international co-operation: (Andres Bello Accord) CAB –
Scope 2015
Scenario strategies of transition to a Society and Economy based on
Knowledge
Demonstrative Exercises: Water (EPM-EAAB)
National Plan on Science, Technology, and Innovation 2019
4. Lessons


1st = Collective Learning
 State of art
 International Networks,
Contacts

Expertise and Pluralism
 Levels of incertitude,
different traditions
Support for the
existent infrastructure

Convergent Facts

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Seminaries, calls, anchor
institutions, materials and
adapted methodologies
Data base of methods,
case studies and tools
Critical Mass, Diffussion
Current Priorities

Construction of a long term
vision of the country, and
the place of science,
technology and innovation in
the knowledge economy

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Growing support toward
strengthening works of the
regions
Training of Trainers

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Sustainability of priorities in
thematic areas and/or
productive sectors of strategic
interest for Colombia
Fortifying flows, regional
clusters : Sector territorial
exercises
Construction of regional
systems of innovation
Universities and Centres as
exchange agents multiplying
the scope of the program
5. Conclusions

Tecnological and Industrial Forecast is an
excellent institutional opportunity for
reflecting on:


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The future of strategic sectors of the country
The possibilities to transform the productive
structure of the country and,
The role of science and technology in such
transformation processes
Conclusions

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Unstable environments, incertitudes and high level conflicts
require greater use of foresight
Such environments need the development and gathering of
capacities as well as the elaboration of progressive learning
exercises
Technical profficiency sponsors colaboration. Learning is
gained through international cooperation. We have
established a wide synergy with international organizations
Foresight is not about predicting!... It is about identifying alternatives.
Colombia seeks future alternatives and better decisions!!
Bibliography
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Gómez Villasante, David & Bernal, Henry (2004) Plan of Joint Action in Science and
Technology of the countries in the Andrés Bello Accord, Technical Commissions, Andrés
Bello Accord, Bogotá.
Medina Vásquez, Javier (2000) “Function of long-term thought: action and institutional redimensioning of the ILPES”, Notes from the ILPES, N. 46.
Medina Vásquez, Javier (2001) “Function of long-term thought: significant experiences at
the global level”, High-level Seminar on basic functions of planning and successful
experiences, Latin American and Caribbean Institute of Economic and Social Planning,
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Regional Planning Council,
Santiago de Chile.
Medina Vásquez, Javier (2005a) for a foresight for unstable, uncertain, and highly
conflictive environments: The experience of the Colombian Program on Technological and
Industrial Foresight. Conference Proceedings the Fistera Conference, IST at the Service of
a Changing Europe by 2020: Learning from World Views, European Union - IPTS, 16 -17
June, Seville.
Medina Vásquez, Javier (2005b) Technology with a future vision, in “CAF meeting for
competitiveness”, Corporación Andina de Fomento, Caracas.
Medina Vásquez, Javier & Ortegón, Edgar (1997) Foresight: Social construction of the
future, Latin American Institute of Economic and Social Planning (ILPES) - Universidad
del Valle, Cali.
Medina Vásquez, Javier & Ortegón, Edgar (2006) Manual on Foresight and strategic
decision: Theoretical Bases and instruments for Latin America and the Caribbean, Latin
American Institute of Economic and Social Planning (ILPES), Santiago de Chile.
Bibliography
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Miles, Ian (2005) Foresight: a long breath path, in “CAF meeting for
competitiveness”, Corporación Medina Vásquez, Javier & Rincón, Gladys (2006)
Technological and industrial foresight: context, fundamentals, and applications,
Colciencias–CAF, Bogotá.
Medina Vásquez, Javier & Sánchez, Marcela (2006) Foresight and technological
watch: integrated focuses, Colciencias, Bogotá (in process of being published).
Miles, Ian & Popper, Rafael (2004) Recommendations to the Colombian NFP,
PREST–Policy Research in Engineering, Science and Technology Institute of
Innovation Research, Manchester Business School, The University of
Manchester.
National Planning Department (2003) Construction of a future for Colombia
stemming from its territories, Memories of National Seminar, DNP – UNDP –
ACCI – CAF, Bogotá.
Popper, Rafael & Medina, Javier (2006) Foresight in Latin America. Case
Studies: Brazil, Colombia, and Venezuela, in “International Handbook on
Foresight and Science Policy: Theory and Practice”; PREST Institute - Edward
Elgar (book coming soon).
Sánchez, J. Marcela & Palop, Fernando (2002). Software tools for the practice of
Competitive Intelligence in the business place. Ed. Triz XXI. Madrid.
Thank you!
jmedina@colciencias.gov.co
javiermedinav@telesat.com.co