Humber Bridge
Review
Results from the
HUMBER ESTUARY
TRANSPORT MODEL
This presentation
• The model
• Results of option tests
• Traffic impacts
• Economic appraisal
Purpose of the model
• To allow the assessment of the impact of different
tolling scenarios for the Humber Bridge on both:
• traffic flows
• the Humber area economy
• Designed to be consistent with the DfT’s Transport
Analysis Guidance (WebTAG)
• Designed to forecast the demand response to changes
in the tolls in terms of the number & destination of trips
made, as well as route choice
Model area
Full extent: area bounded
by Thirsk, Scarborough,
Grantham, Boston.
Western boundary: A1
>200 traffic origin/
destination zones plus
externals
Model area
Network where all
traffic movement
actively simulated
(links and junctions
shown):
west of Scunthorpe to
east of Hull
150 traffic O/D zones
Model capability
• 3 time periods: am peak, interpeak, pm peak
• 5 vehicle types: private car, 4x goods vehicle classes
• 5 passenger journey purposes:
• home-based: journey to work, employer’s business, other
• non home-based: employer’s business, other
• 3 income classes (low, medium, high) for commuting & other
• each has its own demand elasticity w/ respect to trip cost
• 3 model years: 2010, 2021, 2033
• Does not model public transport
Model source data
• Update & extension of pre-existing north bank model
• 41,000 roadside interviews on trip origin/destination,
journey purpose at 38 sites (5,000 interviews at 5 sites
bespoke for this study);
• >100 traffic count sites
• Growth in trips 2010-2033 from DfT National Trip End
Model (NTEM) forecast, version 6.2 incorporating the
effects of the 2008/09 recession
Toll option tests
• Base case (Do Nothing) = existing toll level in real terms
(£2.70 per car in 2010 prices)
• Toll levels tested:
• No toll
• Maintenance-only level toll, £1 per car (63%
reduction, other vehicle classes pro rata)
• £2 per car toll (26% reduction)
• £2.43 per car toll (10% reduction)
Traffic in the base model (2010)
Bridge traffic northbound, am peak
Bridge traffic southbound, am peak
Base case, growth in traffic 2010-2033
Base case, growth in congestion delays
2010-2033
Traffic impact of removing tolls (2010)
Impact of reducing tolls by 63%
Impact of reducing tolls by 10%
Change in congestion delays in zero tolls
option (2033 am peak)
Modelled effect of toll level on traffic
Effect of toll level on bridge traffic (base year), am peak
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
Toll (£ at 2010 prices)
0.50
0
0.00
Vehicles per hour, both directions, am peak
4,000
H Bridge (no
VDM)
H Bridge
(with VDM)
M62 Goole
(no VDM)
M62 Goole
(with VDM)
Modelled effect of toll level on traffic
Effect of toll level on bridge traffic (base year), interpeak
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
Toll (£ at 2010 prices)
0.50
0
0.00
Vehicles per hour, both directions, am peak
3,000
H Bridge (no
VDM)
H Bridge
(with VDM)
M62 Goole
(no VDM)
M62 Goole
(with VDM)
Effect of toll level on traffic, base year
(with full demand response)
Toll at Change in
2010 prices
toll
2.70
Change in traffic
am peak
Change in traffic
interpeak
Humber
Bg
M62
Goole
Humber
Bg
M62
Goole
2.43
-10%
3%
0%
3%
0%
2.00
-26%
10%
-1%
10%
-1%
1.35
-50%
25%
-1%
26%
-1%
1.00
-63%
32%
-2%
35%
-1%
0.00
-100%
54%
-2%
67%
-5%
Economic appraisal
• Economic efficiency of the transport system analysis:
• For commuters, other consumers, businesses
(passenger and road freight), impact on:
• travel time
• vehicle operating cost
• user charges
• For the public sector, direct revenues and indirect
tax revenues
Economic appraisal
• Wider impacts analysis:
• Agglomeration benefits
• Welfare benefits
• Broadly speaking, the benefits to employers and
employees of a broader, deeper labour pool in a subregional labour market
Economic appraisal –
transport economic efficiency
TUBA benefits by toll level: road freight
120
Road freight - time
100
Road freight VOC
Road freight - tolls
80
40
20
0
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-20
-40
Toll in 2010 (£)
PVB £m
60
Economic appraisal –
transport economic efficiency
Reducing tolls: benefits to users -v- losses to public sector
150
Commuters
- tolls
Other csrs tolls
100
0
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0 -50
-100
-150
-200
-250
-300
Toll in 2010 (£)
Present value £m
50
Business
psgr - tolls
Road freight
- tolls
Lost
revenue
Economic appraisal –
transport economic efficiency
Travel time and vehicle operating costs benefits by toll level
Toll in 2010 (£)
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
5
0
Commuters - travel time
-5
-10
Other csrs - travel time
-15
Business psgr - travel
time
Commuters - VOC
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
-45
PVB £m
3
Other csrs - VOC
Business psgr - VOC
Present value of benefits and costs
before wider impacts
Present value of costs & benefits by toll level
300
250
150
100
50
£2.50
£2.00
£1.50
£1.00
Toll
£0.50
0
£0.00
Present value (£m)
200
PVB pre WITA
PVC
Present value of benefits and costs
before wider impacts
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
3
2.5
2
1.5
Toll in 2010 (£)
1
0.5
0
PVB £m
Breakdown of WITA benefits by toll level
Agglomer
ation
Welfare
Present value of benefits and costs
with wider impacts
Present value of costs & benefits by toll level
800
700
500
400
300
200
100
£2.50
£2.00
£1.50
£1.00
Toll
£0.50
0
£0.00
Present value (£m)
600
PVB pre WITA
PVC
PVB w ith WITA
BCR by toll level
BCR by toll level
3.000
2.500
1.500
1.000
0.500
£2.50
£2.00
£1.50
£1.00
Toll
£0.50
0.000
£0.00
BCR
2.000
Pre WITA
With WITA