Chapter 3 Section 3.4 Combinatorics and Probability Counting Methods The counting methods of combination, permutation and Fundamental Counting Principle can be used to find probabilities. A class consists of 2 boys and 7 girls. If two students are picked at random find the probabilities of each given below. P(0 boys and 2 girls) P(1 boy and 1 girl) ways to ways to choose boys choose girls ways to choose two ways to ways to choose boys choose girls ways to choose two 2 C0 7 C2 1 21 21 36 36 9 C2 2 C1 7 C1 2 7 14 36 36 9 C2 P(2 boys and 0 girls) ways to ways to choose boys choose girls ways to choose two 2 Notice that if we add up all of the probabilities we get 1. 21 14 1 21 14 1 36 1 36 36 36 36 36 C2 7 C0 1 1 1 36 36 9 C2 Lotteries The structure of a lottery is given by two numbers. Ohio's Lottery (Classic Lotto) is described as a 6/49 lottery. That is from a set of 49 balls numbered 1-49 there are 6 that are randomly chosen. You get to pick the six numbers you think will match the 6 that are randomly chosen. Winning first prize means that you pick all 6 of the numbers that were chosen. What is the probability of winning first prize? In how many different ways can 6 lottery balls be chosen from 49? (Ohio Lottery) In how many different ways can you pick the six winning numbers? The probability of winning first prize is then given by the following: 49 C6 49! 49 48 47 46 45 44 43! 13,983,816 6!43! (6 5 4 3 2 1) 43! 6 C6 6! 6! 1 6!0! 6! C6 1 13,983,816 49 C6 6 In Ohio's 6/49 lottery what is the probability of matching exactly 5 of the 6 numbers correctly? In how many different ways can 6 lottery balls be chosen from 49? (Ohio Lottery) In how many different ways can you pick 5 of the 6 winning numbers? The probability of winning second prize is then given by the following: 49 C6 49! 49 48 47 46 45 44 43! 13,983,816 6!43! (6 5 4 3 2 1) 43! ways to pick ways to pick 6! 43! 6 C5 43 C1 6 43 258 5 winners 1 loser 5 ! 1 ! 1 ! 42 ! 6 C5 43 C1 258 43 1 13,983,816 2,330,636 54,200 49 C6 What is the probability of matching exactly 4 of the 6 numbers correctly? In how many different ways can you pick 4 of the 6 winning numbers? The probability of winning third prize is then given by the following: ways to pick ways to pick 6! 43! 6 C4 43 C2 15 903 13,545 4!2! 2!41! 4 winners 2 losers 6 C4 43 C2 13,545 645 1 13,983,816 665,896 1,032 49 C6