STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
To Drill or Not to Drill? A Dilemma in the Context of Climate
Change in the Arctic
Case Study Developed for the AAC&U STIRS Program
Vandana Singh, Associate Professor of Physics, Framingham State University, Massachusetts
STUDENT CASE
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Student Pre-Discussion .........................................................................................................3
Prerequisite and Learning Objectives ..................................................................................3
Introduction ..........................................................................................................................3
Narrative 1 ..........................................................................................................................3
Narrative 2 ..........................................................................................................................6
An Elder Tells a Story ..........................................................................................................7
The Community’s Decision ....................................................................................................8
The Consultants’ Charge ....................................................................................................9
Ethical Code ...........................................................................................................................10
Part I: The Place and the People ..........................................................................................13
Iñupiaq Culture, Native Knowledge and the Changing Climate .........................................14
Alaska Native Tribes, Land Rights, and the Oil and Gas Industry .......................................16
Part II: Climate Change in the Arctic ....................................................................................18
Why the Arctic is Important for Global Climate: The Ice- Albedo Feedback .....................18
Decline of Sea Ice in the Arctic ...........................................................................................19
Permafrost in the Arctic ......................................................................................................21
Sea Ice and Biodiversity ......................................................................................................23
Part III: Oil and Gas Activity in the Arctic ............................................................................24
Projections of Increased Activity in the Arctic ...................................................................24
Environmental Impacts of Oil and Gas Drilling in the Arctic ..............................................26
Responses of Industry, Native Communities, and Environmentalists to
Oil and Gas Activity Potential Impacts .....................................................................30
Part IV: Renewables in Alaska .............................................................................................32
The Big Picture: Motivation for Renewables Worldwide ...................................................32
Alaska: The Case for Renewable Energy ............................................................................34
Part V: Planning for an Uncertain Future ............................................................................36
Final Group Activity and Presentation ...............................................................................38
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
Student Post-Discussion and Debriefing ............................................................................39
Notes and References ..........................................................................................................39
Picture Credits ......................................................................................................................40
Further Reading ....................................................................................................................40
About the Author .................................................................................................................41
Note 1: Additional Readings and Viewings marked in green type are intended for a longer, more
in-depth study. Your instructor will let you know which option to select for study.
Note 2: Please read the document “Learning with the Case Method: An Invitation to the
Student” before embarking on this Case Study. Your instructor will make it available to you.
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
Student Pre-Discussion: Before embarking on this case study, participate in an informal
discussion guided by your instructor about what you currently know about the Arctic, the
Iñupiat Eskimos of North Alaska, and about oil and gas drilling and their possible impact on the
economy and the environment.
Note on Preparation: It is helpful if you read through each section of the Case Study before it is
addressed in class. Before the first class, read: “Learning with the Case Method: An Invitation
to the Student.” Your instructor may assign you other readings beforehand as well.
Prerequisite and Learning Objectives
Before embarking on the case study, your instructor will have introduced you to the basic
science of climate change. This would include:






The Greenhouse effect on earth and the main greenhouse gases
Evidence for anthropogenic (human-caused) climate change
Current impacts of climate change
Projected impacts of climate change under low, moderate and high emissions scenarios
Global limits to carbon dioxide emissions based on a 2°C temperature rise by 2100
You will also have completed a brief introduction to the science of complex systems, which
will help you look at the climate system as well as the human interaction with it in a new
way. Thus it is not enough to know about, say, sea ice and Iñupiat culture without also
knowing how the two relate to one another.
The Learning Objectives of this Case Study are listed below, with broader learning goals in italics
within parentheses. By the end of the case study you should be able to:
1. Summarize the essentials of climate change science, evidence and impacts, including
planetary limits (be an educated citizen on a major global issue; develop the skill to identify,
on the basis of evidence, a problem and its causes and effects)
2. Explain why the Arctic is disproportionately affected by global temperature rise, and what
these effects are (develop evidence-based and conceptual reasoning skills)
3. Describe the multidisciplinary nature of the climate disruption scenario and its mitigation/
adaptation (develop integrative thinking skills)
4. Analyze and discuss the impact of oil and gas drilling (off-shore and land-based) on the
economy, livelihood, and culture of the Iñupiat people (develop integrative thinking skills,
practice evidence-based reasoning, identify factors that affect decision-making for realworld issues)
5. Explain the positions taken by indigenous communities, oil companies, government, and
environmental organizations, as well as differences and ranges of opinion within each
group
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
6.
7.
8.
9.
(consider an issue from multiple perspectives; identify factors that affect decision-making for
real-world issues)
Discuss how ethical issues intersect with science, technology and development (practice
ethical thinking and integrative thinking)
Express complex relationships through the use of concept maps, and employ these in
group discussions and brainstorming sessions (practice complex or systems thinking)
Distinguish between reductionist thinking and systems thinking through explanations and
examples (practice complex or systems thinking)
Create possible future scenarios of human societies in the context of climate change, based
on current evidence, trends, and imaginative extrapolations of new social and
technological developments (learn how humans can adapt in the face of change, but also
how we can be change-makers; practice complex or systems thinking)
INTRODUCTION
Through the following two fact-based but fictional Narratives, we travel to a remote village of
800 people, mostly Iñupiat Eskimos, on the North Slope of Alaska, at the edge of the Arctic
Ocean.
Narrative 1: A Very Important Meeting
There was whiteness everywhere. Pani’s breath froze into little clouds of ice crystals as she
stepped out the door and down the steps. There was the white road, on the white background,
and the four-wheeler turning into the small driveway. A grinning, fur-lined face; Siki waved,
slowed down, and she leaped up beside him. She felt a thrill of pride. Her first parka, made of
caribou skin, sown just like her grandmother had taught her, now kept her brother warm.
“They’ve cut the trails,” he shouted over the wind. “We go whaling as soon as the weather
cooperates.”
“It’s the earliest we’ve ever been able to go whaling,” Pani said, echoing her grandmother’s
words that morning. “Only a few years ago we would have to wait until May, and now it’s
barely April.”
“Yes, yes, climate change, I know,” Siki said. There was something so positive about Siki, so
cheerful, that Pani felt her spirits lift. “The scientists that came last week – they’ve been talking
to the elders. Never in ancestral memory has the sea ice melted this early in the year … but we
may be able to catch more whales this way. The big towns always get more whales than we do,
but now that the ice is going so fast…”
“Maybe we’ll get more whales this year,” Pani said. “Lots of meat and muktuk for everyone.”
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
They were both silent, remembering the hard times five years ago that took their father from
them. He had been one of the best, most experienced whalers in the settlement. When the ice
took him, that summer the community had caught no whales. Other towns had brought whale
meat to share.
Sea ice was a dangerous thing. There was less and less of thick, multi-year ice every year.
Because the ice was thinner, it was more dangerous to work on it. Out on the ice, if you didn’t
pay attention to the smallest detail, you could lose your life. The wind or currents might change,
causing a sheet of sea ice to break off shore and float away into the Arctic ocean. Or, as had
happened with their father, the ice could be driven shorewards, cracking, piling up, roaring, like
a horizontal avalanche. Their father had been making sure everyone got to safety the moment
the winds changed, but it had been too late for him. The next thing anyone knew, the ice was
on the move, and he was pulled under into the freezing water. There was no chance of rescue,
given how fast the ice was moving.
Pani and Siki had been in the little community school when the news came.
Now Pani pulled her snow goggles on – even on a cloudy day it was bright enough to risk snow
blindness. The silhouette of the school building arose before them. Other four-wheelers and a
couple of battered trucks were already pulled up. The meeting would be well attended.
As they walked up to the doorway, they heard voices. Voices edged with anger, frustration,
mingled with the quieter ones. They could tell that this would not be an easy or relaxed
discussion. Change had come to their community with the thinning of the sea ice. Just last week
the oil company Fossil Pro had discovered a vast oil reserve a few miles out to sea. As required,
they had come to let the community know two days ago. With so much of the ice gone, it was
easier to drill than it had ever been. The company, FossilPro, also wanted to drill on Iñupiat land
for the rich supply of natural gas and oil under the tundra. The community had to decide
whether to oppose the prospect of off-shore drilling or not. They also had to decide how to
react to the proposal to drill on their land. Already the tiny new power plant took natural gas
from beneath the ground and used it to generate electricity that kept the houses warm. It was
so wonderful to have warm homes and stoves to cook with. But with the lease money the
village could do so much more! They could expand the school building, get a youth center
started, do the kinds of things that the towns to their east were able to do with their oil lease
money. The youth center was Pani’s dream. In the winters, when there would be near-darkness
for twenty-four hours, there was little for young people to do. They got restless and depressed.
The old ways were disappearing, and there were not enough new ideas to keep the young
occupied. Pani had been to those places on the Arctic North Slope where oil and gas money had
transformed the economies. She had spent two years in a college there. Coming back to teach,
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
she had been struck by how difficult life was in the village where she had grown up. Certainly
money from oil would make things easier.
But what about the whales? Whaling was part of Iñupiat identity, part of their attachment to
the land they loved. Seismic testing, some people said, had already driven whales away from
the shore. Wouldn’t drilling and the increased activity on the water make things even worse?
Narrative 2: Extracts from Letters to the Editor in the Arctic Voice, the village newsletter [1]
I wish to state that the people excited about oil development are forgetting some important
things. My father is an elder, and I am speaking for him as well as myself. The old ways are
going, my own children don’t speak Iñupiaq, and we are forgetting words that stand for
important things. If we don’t put up a fight against the off-shore oil drilling by FossilPro, we
stand to lose one of the most important things for our culture: whaling. Iñupiat people have
been whaling for thousands of years. The whales come to us, my father says, and we only take
what we need. I have already seen how oil exploration disturbs the whales – seismic testing
deafens them, so they move far away from where we can hunt them. They do not come to us
in the numbers they used to. And what if there is an oil spill? What will happen to the fish we
catch and the seals we hunt?
We should consider as a community what is important to us. Oppose offshore drilling. About
drilling on land, well, our people to the east allow it. And they are doing well, so perhaps there
is no harm in supporting that. But we must be careful. People who come here to make money
off our resources don’t always tell us the truth. They only tell us how great everything will be.
We should discuss with other villages and towns and find out for ourselves.
―John A.
I have to say I don’t agree with my friend John. We were raised together. We have gone on
whaling expeditions for as long as I remember. Whaling is important to all of us. But our
community is not prospering. We need jobs, and a bigger school. Look at the towns and
villages to our east. How much better they are! They are preserving our culture because they
have money to build a heritage center where children can learn Iñupiaq. I think we should give
a chance to both off-shore and on-shore. There are new technologies that can prevent oil
spills. We can make a safe zone for whales where no drilling is allowed. We can’t stay stuck in
the past. I am so glad I don’t have to live like my grandfather, making whalebone houses,
burning seal oil, which is not good for the lungs. We are better off with modern conveniences.
As long as we safeguard our interests and don’t let anyone cheat us, we should do very well
with both on-shore and off-shore oil and gas drilling. Our communities in the East are ready to
help.
―Victor G.
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
I am very disappointed with the level of discussion on this issue. Climate change is happening
all over the world, and people are talking about moving away from an oil economy. How can
we support the same thing that is destroying us? The ice is melting. Will the whales stay, or
move away, or die out? Some people in the lower 48 are making their towns and universities
divest their funds from oil, coal and gas. There is an investment company that has come up
with a fossil-fuel free fund. What if the governments agree to put a limit on how much fossil
fuel can be burned? That is good for the earth, but if we set up our economy to depend on oil
and gas, we won’t benefit economically once the crash comes. There are so many reasons to
say no to both kinds of drilling. So we should think about the earth as a whole, and not be
participants in the same thing that is destroying the world.
―Sarah S.
I am very proud of Sarah for graduating from college and coming back to live in the community.
But sometimes college education is not enough. Some of us have responsibilities to the
community first, before we can make speeches about the world. It is true that fossil fuel
burning has caused climate change, and that is making the sea ice melt earlier every year. We
have very little multi-year ice, and the conditions are dangerous. But it is not us who created
the problem of climate change. The people who caused it should fix it. Let them shift to
renewables, in the Lower 48, and in Europe -- but they should let us have our chance. We have
to catch up to the same standard of living. It is not fair to ask us to make sacrifices, especially
when our ancestors suffered so much. We have fought for the right to govern ourselves, to
have ownership of our land. There will always be a demand for oil and gas, because they are
the cleanest burning fossil fuels. Why shouldn’t we benefit from it?
―Bob L.
An Elder Tells a Story [2]
One day an avingaq decided to venture outside his hole and assess the rest of the world. When
he stood up on his hind legs, lo and behold, to his surprise, he was able to reach the heavens.
When he reached down, he felt the ground. When he reached in all directions, he was able to
touch the limits of the world. He concluded that he was the largest person on the face of the
earth.
In reality, the poor mouse had surfaced from his hole in the ground into an old Iñupiaq boot sole
turned upside down. The top of his heaven was the sole of the atungak and the outer limits of
his world were the sides of the atungak.
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
When I think of this story, I am mindful that I should consider all facets of a situation before I
make any conclusions. I should not limit myself to what is around me, but I should explore and
search for other information, lest I be like the poor mouse.
The Community’s Decision
There has been a lot of talk about the prospect of offshore and onshore drilling for oil and gas
in our area. There has been much disagreement and debate. Our elders remind us that we
must look at the situation in its fullness before we can make a good decision. They have come
together to remind us how we must act in the face of this challenge. We will be meeting with
community members in other towns on the North Slope so that we can learn from their
experience. Meanwhile our village has agreed to hire independent consultants to gather
information that will help us make the right choice for ourselves.
As a community we all agree that:
 Our language and traditions, especially whaling and hunting, are important to us. Without
these things we lose our identity.
 It is also true that our lives have some challenges. We have one general store that gets
supplies by small planes once in two weeks. Everything is expensive, from gas to school
supplies. The school and the clinic both need to expand. Our young people need jobs, and
a youth center, and ways to contribute to the community.
 We must find the right balance between modern and traditional life. We need both. But
nobody has a right to tell us which combination is better. It is something only we as a
community have a right to decide.
 It is important to think about the needs of our community first. But we Iñupiat have always
thought about more than what is immediately in front of us. We know that when the land
ice melts into the sea it causes sea level rise as far away as the tropics. Some Pacific
islanders have made a home in neighboring communities and they have told us this, and we
have seen it in the news. We also know that we can’t afford to think only about tomorrow,
because the world is changing very fast. We must know the consequences of our actions
and the actions of others further into the future, so we can safeguard and prepare our
children and grandchildren.
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
We see before us four options. We list them below, along with potential benefits and
concerns. Thus below we include voices of all those in the community who have spoken.
Option
Potential Community
Benefits
Community Concerns
Support off-shore and onshore drilling
Highest economic gains Off-shore: disturbs and harms whales
(some say use better technology and
create whale-safe zones)
On-shore: possibility of pipeline spills?
Threat to traditions and culture from
these, plus from influx of strangers from
outside
Oil economy showing signs of slowdown
– what if there is crash?
Oppose off-shore but
support on-shore drilling
Reduced but still
substantial gains; no
threat to whales and
whaling tradition
Same as above except for concerns
about whaling. Many people are in
support of this option.
Support off-shore but
oppose on-shore drilling
Reduced gains might
be offset by deals with
FossilPro for jobs and
dividends
There will be no tax income from offshore drilling, plus there will be danger
to our habitat and whaling tradition;
Oppose both off-shore and Find viable model of
on-shore drilling and come sustainable
up with alternatives
development;
safeguard our land and
animals and traditions;
show the way for other
communities. We
must be able to
imagine alternatives
before they can
become real.
How will we bring prosperity to our
community? We need funds now; we
can’t wait for some of the things we
need. Our youth are at risk. Without
money from oil and gas, our community
will suffer, and then how will we
preserve our traditions? Not all
locations are suitable for wind, or tidal
energy. Oil and gas are the only things
we have that other people want.
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
The Consultants’ Charge
You, the students, will serve as consultants to the community. The community has charged the
consultants with the following:
1. Develop scenarios based on different climate change projections (from ‘business as
usual’ to ‘rapid shift to green energy and better land-use’). What will the conditions be
in the North Slope of Alaska in 2030? In 2100? We need information about surface
temperature, sea ice changes in thickness and extent, and precipitation. We need to
know the impacts of these changes on our environment.
2. Based on the above scenarios, collect information on potential benefits and risks for
each option, both short-term and long-term.
3. Specifically we need to know:
a) What are the estimated oil and gas reserves on shore and off-shore in the Alaskan
Arctic Coast?
b) What are the risks from oil and gas activity, especially oil spills? What about risks
from increased shipping traffic?
c) What are the risks to whales and other marine life from oil and gas drilling?
d) What are the risks from oil spills on land, especially given that permafrost is melting?
e) What are the indications of growth (or not) for the fossil fuel industry that might
affect us economically?
f) What kind of alternative energy would work for us?
g) Is it possible to build a sustainable economy for our community that is fossil-fuelfree?
Keep in mind this charge as you read through the background information presented in the
next sections.
Important Note: The community does not have the final say in decisions involving land or sea
that it does not own. Thus if off-shore drilling is deemed feasible and permissible by
authorities, the community will be consulted and informed, but the decision to drill might be
made even if the community opposes it. However in recent years Native voices in Alaska have
become more powerful and their opinions are taken more seriously.
Ethical Code of Conduct for Student Consultants
1. To take care to do no harm.
2. To take our responsibilities seriously, knowing that our recommendations will have
consequences
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
3. To promote accuracy, truthfulness, completeness and transparency in our work, and in
presenting our work to the community
4. To be aware of our own biases, personal interests, ignorance, prejudices and
worldviews, and to address these so that they do not interfere with our charge to the
community
5. To respect the inherent worth and dignity of all people with whom we work, and in
particular to respect the community’s right to self-determination.
Introductory Discussion
a) What is the assignment asking you, the students, to investigate? Summarize in your
own words.
b) Why did the Elder tell the story about the avingaq?
c) Discuss the ways in which the scenario introduced above is relevant, and perhaps
even crucial, to non-Native peoples around the world. Include an example of a
similar situation faced by a non-Native community.
d) Discuss the Ethical Code of Conduct. Why is it necessary? What are the possible
violations of the code, and how do we prevent these?
e) In this case study you have to gather information to answer the community’s
questions. Discuss the kinds of knowledge required to answer these questions.
Which are conceptual, and which are likely to involve quantitative reasoning?
Which ones have to do with cultural needs and ethics? Which questions might have
clearer answers than others? Some answers might be fairly exact, although with
uncertainties. Others might be speculative. See if you can distinguish between
these. For example, to fully answer question 3 f) above would require a knowledge
of the cultural needs of the people, as well as the geography of their land and its
suitability (or not) to various kinds of alternative energy. It would also therefore
require some conceptual scientific understanding of different kinds of renewable
energy sources. In order to fully answer this question, however, the consultants
should also provide the community with some data on current use of alternative
energy in the Alaskan North Slope. This would be quantitative information.
f) Your instructor will introduce you to the idea of concept mapping. Concept maps
are diagrams that show how different aspects of a topic are related. They help us to
think about different aspects of a situation as well as the relationships between
them, thus enabling us to appreciate the complex nature of the case study. They
can also give us a bird’s eye or big-picture view of a complex problem or issue.
Depending on the question you are asking, there can be multiple ways to construct
useful concept maps.
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
A Starting point for a Concept-Mapping Exercise – after your instructor has
introduced and motivated the idea of a concept map, and upon completing an
example or two, you will have a chance to begin to create one or more such maps
for this case study. Begin by creating bubbles of items as they occur to you when
you reflect on the Case Study. A possible starting point has been suggested below.
This exercise may best be done with sticky notes on a whiteboard. At different
points during this case study, you will move the sticky notes around, re-phrase them
if needed, and use a dry-erase marker to add linking words and arrows between
items. You will add more items as they occur to you. Concept maps help us see the
inter-relationships between various aspects of a question or problem, and how it
might fit into a bigger picture. Concept mapping helps develop higher-level thinking
skills. Note: the map below is incomplete and only provides one possible starting
point.
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
Oil and gas
drilling in the
Arctic
can lead to
Economic
prosperity
Iñupiat cultural
identity/
survival
might threaten
is crucial for
Whaling/
subsistence
hunting
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
PART 1: THE PLACE AND THE PEOPLE
We begin with a short reading that will give us a general picture of the Arctic Circle Native
Communities and the issues that confront them.
READ: http://arcticcircle.uconn.edu/
Figure 1. Indigenous Peoples and Languages
of Alaska
Figure 2. North Slope of Alaska and National
Petroleum Reserve
For the purpose of this case-study we consider an imaginary community of 500 Iñupiat people
modeled on similar communities in the region. Figure 1 shows the native communities of
Alaska organized by language group. The Iñupiat people, whose language is Iñupiaq, occupy
the pale blue-colored, northernmost region at the edge of the Arctic Ocean. The part of the
region we are concerned with is the North Slope Borough.
We locate our imaginary community outside the Western edge of the National Petroleum
Reserve, on the coast of the Chukchi Sea of the Arctic Ocean, between Wainwright and Point
Lay. See Notes and References [3]. Mark its position on Figure 2.
The map on the next page is from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, which is part of
the U.S. Government’s Department of the Interior. BOEM receives requests from oil companies
to explore for oil and gas, and to drill, when these resources are found. Companies must take
many steps before drilling can actually start; throughout the process they must also keep local
communities informed. Locate and mark the position of our fictional community on the BOEM
map.
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Figure 3. Oil lease areas map from BOEM
Iñupiaq Culture, Native Knowledge and the Changing Climate
In this section we learn about the culture of the Iñupiat Eskimos of the North Slope of Alaska,
and in particular, understand the importance of the subsistence hunting tradition. Note:
“Iñupiat” refers to the people and is plural; “Iñupiaq” is the singular and is the name of the
language, as well as an adjective (e. g. “Germans” and “German”). “Iñupiat” means “people,” or
more specifically, “real people” or “our people.”
READ: http://icestories.exploratorium.edu/dispatches/big-ideas/the-people-of-the-arctic/theIñupiaq-people-of-barrow-alaska/
The cultural and spiritual relationship between many Native cultures and their traditional lands
(and oceans, for coastal people) is important, and despite modern influences this relationship
remains crucial to their well-being. Thus threat of loss of ancestral land, including sea ice in the
case of the Iñupiat, is deeply felt.
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Figure 4. The Iceberg Analogy for Indigenous knowledge. Most people outside indigenous
cultures only recognize a few surface aspects of these cultures.
As an example of the close relationship between the Iñupiat and their environment, consider
the importance of the whaling tradition. In this PBS Learning Media video, we learn from a
whaling captain in Barrow what whales and whaling mean to the Iñupiat:
VIEW: http://www.pbslearningmedia.org/resource/echo07.sci.life.coast.eskimo/Inupiaqwhale-hunt/
Iñupiaq culture confers great respect on the community elders. Elders hold traditional
knowledge carried down from thousands of years and many generations and pass it on to the
community. Here is one Iñupiat Elder recalling her debt to her elders in the context of traveling
across the sea ice.
Traveling like a nomad is so hard for anyone, but our subsistence livelihoods meant we had
delicious food to keep healthy. This is crucial in the Arctic. I respect our Elders so much that I
get a lump in my throat when I think about them. Even children had to do their share of the
work to have the Elders rest their weary bodies… I would never exchange my life experience for
the Western world ways. My very body has been fed wild game, love, and the spiritual ways
passed on by our beloved Elders. [4]
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
On the website below, read the section titled Traditional Knowledge Systems in the Arctic.
READ SELECTED PORTION: http://www.nativescience.org/html/traditional_knowledge.html
Traditional knowledge includes highly detailed observational skills, the ability to recognize
patterns and rhythms in nature, and an intimate knowledge of the connections between
people, animals, the land and the climate. Native knowledge and Western science are being
increasingly recognized as important complementary systems of knowing that can enrich our
understanding of the changing climate. Read the Abstract, Introduction and Section 2 of the
article “Indigenous Frameworks for Observing and Responding to Changes in Climate in Alaska.”
READ SELECTED PORTIONS: http://www.lter.uaf.edu/pdf/1733_Cochran_Huntington_2013.pdf
Discussion 1:
a) What is the historical background of the Iñupiat in Barrow, Alaska?
b) What did you learn about attitudes and practices that are important to the culture of
the Iñupiat?
c) How did contact with the outside world change the culture of the Iñupiat? What
cultural attitudes and traditions remain important today?
d) What did you learn from the video about the relationship between the Iñupiat and the
bowhead whale? What aspects of the Iñupiat cooperative tradition were apparent in
this video?
e) “When an elder dies, a library burns.” Explain this statement in the context of traditional
knowledge among the Iñupiat.
f) In what ways does Native traditional knowledge differ from formal Western ways of
knowing (such as, say, a typical college education)?
Alaska Native Tribes, Land Rights and the Oil and Gas Industry
How do the Alaska Native tribes relate to the lands on which they live, economically and
politically? That relationship must be seen against the backdrop of oil and gas development in
the state. Below is a brief history.
Alaska was a part of Russia until its sale to the United States in 1867. In 1958 Alaska was
granted statehood and the U.S. Congress acknowledged the rights of Native peoples to their
lands. However these land rights were in constant jeopardy due to the state’s power to take
over land from the public domain for its own use. After the discovery of oil in Alaska in 1957,
when the potential for oil production became reality, the issue of Native rights to their land
intensified the conflict. In 1966 over 250 leaders of various Native and American Indian groups
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
came together, overcoming mutual differences to demand a freeze on federal land transfers
until the issue of Native rights was settled. Thus the Alaska Federation of Natives was born.
The struggle for the land rights of Alaska’s Natives has a complex and convoluted history.
Among the Native leaders were different opinions about oil, development, and land rights.
Some groups pushed for Native lands to be held in trust by the Federal government and
managed by local tribal governments as per the Indian Reorganization Act of 1934, a Federal
government ruling. Others were in favor of a corporate model that would bring Natives into
the mainstream of economic development. Ultimately, conflict and compromise resulted in the
Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act of 1971. All Native land claims to most of Alaska were
given up in exchange for about one-ninth of the state’s land and compensation from the
Federal treasury and oil revenue sharing. Twelve regional Native corporations were created as
part of the settlement. Thus the socioeconomic relationship of the Native to the land changed
– rather than being co-owners of shared land, Natives became shareholders of corporate land.
In the Alaskan North Slope, currently three civic and economic entities are involved. First, the
North Slope Borough, which is a county of the state of Alaska governing much of the North
Slope of Alaska and is led by a Mayor. Its responsibilities include community services, planning
and permits, a wildlife department for advocacy and research, and revenue, including oil
revenue. Second, the Arctic Slope Regional Corporation (ASRC), which is one of the
aforementioned twelve regional Native Corporations, in which Natives are shareholders and
receive dividends. The ASRC is one of the highest-revenue Alaska-owned businesses; it owns
title to 5 million acres of land that enables it to gain funds from leases to oil companies, has
numerous subsidiaries, and also makes investments like any other corporation. Third, the
Iñupiat Community of the Arctic Slope (ICAS), which is the regional tribal government under the
Indian Reorganization Act (IRA) (Federal) of 1934; it came under the umbrella of the IRA in
1971. Its mission includes conservation of tribal land and resources, support of subsistence
hunting and environmental issues, and management of justice systems.
READ: http://arcticcircle.uconn.edu/SEEJ/Landclaims/ancsa1.html and references therein.
Discussion 2:
a) What dilemmas did the Iñupiat have to face during their struggle for land rights?
How did their socioeconomic relationship to the land change after 1971?
b) What are the roles and functions of the North Slope Borough, the ASRC and the ICAS?
How have the oil and gas industry affected the economy of the Iñupiat? Since there is a lot of
overlap between the National Petroleum Reserve and the North Slope Iñupiat community,
there has been substantial development of land-based oil and gas resources, particularly in the
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
area of Prudhoe Bay, which is America’s largest oil field. You can get an idea of the extent and
pace of development through a series of maps on this site:
EXAMINE: http://www.north-slope.org/departments/wildlife-management/other-topics-ofinterest/oil-and-gas-activity/history-oil-development-alaskan-arctic
Discussion 3:
a) What is the time range of the information on the site?
b) What are the maps showing?
c) What do you conclude from the maps?
The Alaska Oil and Gas Association, a trade association of oil companies working in Alaska, has
the following information about how oil and gas activity has contributed to the economies of
the North Slope Borough.
READ: http://www.aoga.org/facts-and-figures/economic-impact-reports/2011-north-slopeborough
Discussion 4:
a) How many jobs were generated by the oil and gas industry among North Slope Borough
residents in 2011?
b) What was the total annual payroll for these residents, and where did most of the money
come from?
c) What were the oil-related property taxes in 2010, and what percent of the Borough’s
total property tax did these represent?
PART II: CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC
Why the Arctic is Important for Global Climate: The Ice-Albedo Feedback
The Northern polar ice cap consists entirely of ice floating in the Arctic Ocean. Since ice and
snow have a high reflectivity or albedo, much of the sun’s radiation that falls on it is reflected
right back into space and very little is absorbed. Because of this, the polar ice has a cooling
effect on Earth’s average global surface temperature.
When we burn fossil fuels, we increase the amount of heat trapped in the atmosphere, which
warms the land and the oceans. This causes sea ice to melt. The albedo of the darker sea
water is much lower than that of sea ice. Thus less of the sun’s radiation is reflected back into
space, and more is absorbed, causing more warming. Greater warming causes more ice to
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
melt, which results in a repeat of the above cycle, so that sea ice melts faster and faster, and
temperatures rise faster too. This is known as the ice-albedo feedback [5]. From your survey of
complex systems, you will recognize that this is an example of a positive feedback loop.
The Arctic is warming about twice as fast as the rest of the globe [6]. This Arctic Amplification is
due to positive feedback loops like the ice-albedo feedback. Since the Arctic is a crucial
moderator of Earth’s climate, the melting of sea ice is likely to have profound consequences for
global climate as a whole, as well as for local people and animals.
Draw a clear, labeled diagram illustrating the ice-albedo feedback.
Decline of Sea Ice in the Arctic
First you should understand some ice terminology [7]:
Sea ice is frozen sea water. When salt water freezes, it forms ice crystals that float up to the
ocean’s surface and collect there, hardening into ice sheets. The ice expels salt into
microscopic brine channels when it freezes. (For a photograph of what brine channels look like,
and further reading, see here:
http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/characteristics/brine_salinity.html).
Sea ice may be free-floating, or it may be grounded, usually in shallow areas near the shore.
Shorefast or landfast ice is sea ice that has been pushed up against the shore due to wind and
currents and has attached itself to the ground.
Sea ice chunks pushed against each other due to the action of wind and water form pressure
ridges. Multi-year ice is ice that has not melted during the summer and has thus lasted more
than a year. It usually forms higher ridges, and because it has had a chance to release more
brine from its brine channels due to partial summer melting, it is a good source of fresh water
for local communities, especially when they are in whaling camp.
First year ice is sea ice that has formed less than a year ago. It tends to be thinner and more
prone to being broken up by ocean currents and wind.
Sea ice starts forming in the fall, and melts back in the summer. The kinds of measurements
scientists are interested in making include sea ice extent (defined as 15% or more ice cover),
and sea ice thickness, volume and age.
Figure 4 shows the record low of sea ice extent in summer 2012. The yellow line is the average
minimum extent over the past 30 years. However ice extent for one year does not give us an
idea of the trend. To see the trend, view the following website and click the buttons at the
bottom of the pictures to see how summer and spring sea ice extent has changed through the
years.
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
VIEW: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/sea_ice.php.
Figure 4. Arctic Sea Ice extent, September 2012
Discussion 5:
a) In which season, summer or spring, has there been more change in the sea ice extent?
b) The text says that “Half of the extents over the time period were larger than the line,
and half were smaller,” but concludes that there is an overall decline in Arctic sea ice.
How might one reach this conclusion?
c) There are natural cycles at work in the Arctic. What does this website say about the role
of natural variability in the decline of sea ice?
The graph below is another way to see the trend. The colored lines represent sea ice extent
predictions from climate models assuming different emissions scenarios. The black line
represents actual data. Notice that both lines indicate a downward trend. However, observed
decrease in sea ice extent is happening faster than models predict.
Figure 5. Sea Ice Extent, climate models compared to observations
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
Sea ice also affects ocean circulation but this and other factors will not be considered in this
case study.
VIEW: http://www.pbslearningmedia.org/resource/echo07.sci.life.coast.climate/arcticclimate-perspectives/
OPTIONAL: Read section 3 of the article “Indigenous Frameworks for Observing and responding
to Climate Change in Alaska.”
READ: http://www.lter.uaf.edu/pdf/1733_Cochran_Huntington_2013.pdf
Discussion 6:
a) What are some of the changes in the environment as observed by the Iñupiat in the
video?
b)
Discuss the impact that these changes are having on Iñupiat life and culture.
Permafrost in the Arctic:
Permafrost is defined as ground (rock, soil, sediment, ice, organic material) that stays below 0°C
for two years or more. The map below shows permafrost in the Arctic (purple regions).
Figure 6. Arctic Permafrost map
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
This short video from NASA explains why melting permafrost is a problem for climate change,
and introduces a NASA project called CARVE:
VIEW: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZSM8GcmJKg
Discussion 7:
a) How much of the earth’s organic carbon (i.e. carbon from the remains of once-living
organisms) is stored in the Arctic permafrost? What proportion of the world’s total
organic carbon does this represent?
b) Discuss this statement in the video: “Looking at the Arctic is like looking at a canary in a
coal mine.”
c) Did you recognize another positive feedback loop in the video? Draw and explain.
d) What is the purpose of the CARVE program?
[Note: OPTIONAL – the text of the video is here
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth20130610.html#.U3vmArR8SSp].
[OPTIONAL: Climate change is a complex phenomenon. Could it be that the greening of the
Arctic tundra due to warmer temperatures could offset the carbon released by warming
permafrost? (Plants absorb carbon dioxide). Preliminary studies indicate that will not be the
case. http://www.esajournals.org/doi/full/10.1890/13-0602.1]
Melting permafrost has additional impact – subsidence, or sinking of land/ sea bed. This can
affect the integrity of buildings, pipelines, and roads.
Look at Table 1 in this essay, “Thaw Settlement Related to Permafrost Degradation”, and read
the last short paragraphs following the table.
EXAMINE AND READ: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/essay_romanovsky.html
On a related page you can see some photographs; view in particular those labeled “Impact”.
VIEW: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_permafrost.html.
Discussion 8:
a) What is the permafrost temperature trend in the period 1983-2003 along the route of
the Trans-Alaska pipeline? What is the permafrost temperature trend in Barrow in the
time range 1950-2003? Compare with what you learned in the NASA video about the
CARVE program.
b) Describe some of the impacts on buildings, pipelines and other infrastructure due to
melting permafrost.
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
Thawing of permafrost, whether from the land or the sea bed, also releases methane, a
greenhouse gas more than 20 times more effective than carbon dioxide in trapping heat.
Scientists do not agree on the significance of methane release since it stays in the atmosphere
only about ten years, oxidizing to form carbon dioxide and water. However some scientists
think that methane outgassing is significant and may become a major problem. Research is
ongoing, for instance at the University of Alaska’s International Arctic Research Center. This
case study does not consider the potential effects of methane outgassing, although this may be
a concern as more research is done. [8]
OPTIONAL: See here for a news release on the work of Dr. Natalia Shakhova and colleagues at
the University of Fairbanks: http://uafcornerstone.net/esas2013/ and here for the abstract of
their 2010 paper in the journal Science:
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/327/5970/1246.abstract. Also useful is a somewhat
technical but accessible post in RealClimate, a blog by a group of well-known climate scientists.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/01/an-arctic-methane-worst-casescenario/.
Sea Ice and Biodiversity
Sea ice is important not only for climate dynamics, but also for life in the Arctic Ocean. Despite
extremely cold temperatures, the Arctic is teeming with life.
The brine channels inside the sea ice host a complex micro-ecosystem. The undersurface of the
sea ice is greenish-brown with ice algae. Ice algae and phytoplankton are the basis of the Arctic
food web. You can see ice algae in this video clip, in which a camera is lowered into a hole
through the ice layer.
VIEW: http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2013/05/19/what-lies-beneath-arctic-ice/
Here is an animation of the Arctic food web from the Geophysical Institute at the University of
Alaska, Fairbanks.
VIEW: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zhbEXBT0WE&list=UUrFLBwtB98DaY01b_NY6c8A
Examine the diagram of the Arctic Food Web from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute,
where you can click on each animal to learn more about it.
EXAMINE: http://polardiscovery.whoi.edu/arctic/ecosystem.html
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
Here is an essay by two oceanographers, Christopher Krembs and Jody Deming, at the NOAA
site. Please read paragraphs 5, 6, 7. OPTIONAL: Read the full article.
READ SELECTED PORTIONS: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/essay_krembsdeming.html
Discussion 9:
a)
b)
c)
d)
Draw a picture of the Arctic food web and explain how it works.
How is the life of a polar bear dependent on the existence of sea ice?
How does sea ice melt in the summer contribute to the ecosystem?
What is the importance of sea ice in the winter?
Figure 7 is a 2011 map from the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, is based on satellite
tracking data, and shows the range of the bowhead whale around Alaska. Iñupiat Eskimo
people hunt the bowhead according to a quota system set by the International Whaling
Commission. The bowhead, too, feed on plankton – they are baleen whales. Instead of teeth
they have fringes of a material called baleen that serves as a filter, capturing millions of tiny
crustaceans.
Figure 7. Bowhead Whale Range
[OPTIONAL: Detailed information about bowhead whale subsistence hunting is available from
this site from the North Slope Borough. http://www.north-slope.org/departments/wildlifemanagement/studies-and-research-projects/bowhead-whales/bowhead-whale-subsistenceharvest-research].
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
PART III: OIL AND GAS ACTIVITY IN THE ARCTIC
Projections of Increased Activity in the Arctic
As sea ice retreats, the Arctic is expected to become more navigable. Although it will remain a
harsh and difficult environment for a long time – due to storms, the treacherous ice pack, and
the extreme cold – the retreat of the ice is already making it possible to look for and drill for
fossil fuels on the Arctic sea bed. The picture below shows Russia’s Polar Star, an oil rig that
commenced production in the winter of 2013.
Figure 8: Oil Drilling Rig Polar Star in Russian Arctic
Ocean
The United States Geological Survey, released a one-page report in 2008 on the potential for oil
and natural gas extraction in the Arctic Circle.
READ: http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1980#.U3rV0bR8SSo
Discussion 10:
a) How much technically recoverable oil is estimated to exist within the Arctic Circle? How
much natural gas and natural gas liquids might be recoverable?
b) Of the world’s estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable resources, what percent
does the Arctic estimated reserve comprise, for oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids?
c) Of the estimated Arctic resources, what percentage is expected to come from the
ocean?
The map below (from 2006) shows (in pink shading) the oil and gas reserves projected and
available, that will become more accessible as the Arctic ice melts. Sites for oil production, gas
production and mining (green, red circles and blue squares respectively) are also shown.
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
Figure 9. Projected and Available Oil and Gas Reserves in the Arctic
The melting of the ice cap is also expected to allow the Arctic to become more navigable. The
map shows the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route). In 2007,
for the first time in human history, the Northwest Passage was free of ice in a single summer,
allowing ships to sail through.
Figure 10. Major Arctic Sea Routes
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
To understand some of the incentives behind oil and gas drilling in the Arctic, read this article in
Oil and Gas Journal, a major publication of the Petroleum industry.
READ: http://www.ogj.com/articles/2013/07/energy-consumption-to-escalate.html
Discussion 11:
a) What is motivating the drive to find new fossil fuel reserves?
b) What does ‘prosperity’ mean? Is the meaning of the word different for different
societies, or is there one global definition? Is prosperity always material, or does it
include other aspects of living well? Note: this is a preliminary discussion that will be
revisited later on.
c) From what you know about global climate disruption, discuss what might be the effect
of continued fossil fuel combustion.
d) Examine this statement: “Fossil fuel burning is the major contributor to global climate
disruption, which causes Arctic sea ice to melt, which allows more fossil fuels to be
accessible for more burning…” Can you draw this process? What familiar aspect of
complex systems does it remind you of? Name it.
Environmental Impacts of Oil and Gas Drilling in the Arctic
Your client, the community that has hired you, depends on its environment for cultural and
physical sustenance. We therefore examine two key potential threats to the Arctic
environment from oil and gas drilling.
a) Anthropogenic noise due to oil exploration, drilling and increased shipping traffic
b) Oil spills
To understand whether and how noise pollution might affect whales, we first recognize that
whales communicate with each other through sound. Sight and smell are not reliable senses in
the water over long distances, and since the speed of sound in water is greater than that in air,
it makes sense that whales communicate acoustically. As complex, intelligent, social mammals,
their communications are likely to be important to their survival.
At the site below, you can hear the vocalizations of the bowhead whale, and compare that to
anthropogenic (human-caused) sound sources.
LISTEN: http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/multimedia/data-visualizations/2013/impact-ofmanmade-noise-on-arctic-marine-mammals
Anthropogenic noise comes from many sources: air guns used for mapping the sea floor
produce loud, low frequency sound blasts; exploration drill ships and oil drilling platforms
produce continuous, low frequency sounds; and propellers of large ships and tankers add to the
noise pollution under water. Studies have been done on the effects of these sounds on whales
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
since the 1980s and are summarized in a report written by Kate Stafford, Principal
Oceanographer at the Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington in Seattle.
Read the section “When Does Sound Become Noise,” starting on Page 8.
Next, look at Figure 1 on page 11 that shows various sources of anthropogenic sound in the
marine environment, and also at Figure 2 on page 13, which shows the frequency overlap
between whale vocalizations and anthropogenic noise.
Finally, read the section “How Does Anthropogenic Noise Affect Marine Mammals?” starting on
page 12.
READ SELECTED PORTIONS: http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/Imported-andLegacy/oceans_north_legacy/attachments/arcticnoise_final_web_1.pdf?la=en
Discussion 12:
a) What are some of the difficulties, uncertainties and unknowns about the effect of
anthropogenic noise on whales?
b) What do studies show so far about how whales are impacted by oil and gas exploration
and increased shipping traffic?
c) Look once more at the maps of the Northwest Passage, the projected oil and gas
reserves of the Arctic and the range of the bowhead whale in Alaska, presented in
previous pages. Is there an overlap? Is the region where our hypothetical community
exists impacted?
Now we consider the second potential environmental hazard in the Arctic: Oil Spills
What are the possibilities for an oil spill in the Arctic? What effect might an oil spill have in such
a cold environment? Before investigating these questions, we first look at the worldwide
records for accidental oil spills from different sources.
The joint report (2012) from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the Bureau of
Safety and Environmental Enforcement, both of the US Department of Interior, is below.
“Update of Occurrence Rates for Offshore Oil Spills:”
READ Abstract:
http://www.boem.gov/uploadedFiles/BOEM/Environmental_Stewardship/Environmental_Asse
ssment/Oil_Spill_Modeling/AndersonMayesLabelle2012.pdf
Note that 1 barrel of oil (bbl) = 42 U.S. gallons, and that a Bbbl is one billion (1 x 10 9) bbl. A spill
of greater than 1000 bbl is considered ‘large.’
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
Discussion 13:
a) What are the different sources of accidental oil spills considered in this report?
b) What is the trend for spills greater than 1000 bbl from U.S. Outer Continental Shelf
platforms?
c) What is the trend for spills greater than 10,000 bbl from U.S. Outer Continental Shelf
(OCS) platforms?
d) How do the trends for the last 15 years compare with the overall trend?
e) Summarize trends for OCS pipelines and tankers. What regulatory measure may have
contributed to the change in tanker spill rates over the past 15 years?
f) Suppose that the number of oil spills per year (instead of per Bbbl) increased, but at the
same time the volume of barrels handled increased disproportionately. What would
happen to the occurrence rate as defined in this report? Comment on how and under what
circumstances the “number of oil spills per Bbbl handled” is useful as a unit or measure, and
when it is not.
Now moving specifically to the Arctic Ocean, read this short report from the National Ocean
Service of NOAA: Preparing for Oil Spills in the Future Arctic, and an article from the journal
Science, from April, 2013.
READ: http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/features/jun09/arctic.html and also an article from
the journal Science, from April, 2013.
READ: http://news.sciencemag.org/earth/2014/04/panel-says-u.s.-not-ready-inevitable-arcticoil-spill
Discussion 14:
a) Why do you think these reports talk about the increasing likelihood (“inevitable”) of an
oil spill in the Arctic? If the BOEM-BSEE report Abstract shows declining trends for
worldwide and US (non-Arctic) oil spill occurrence rates, why is there concern about an
oil spill in the Arctic?
b) What did you learn from these reports about a) the challenges of oil activity in the
Arctic, including challenges involving rescue operations, and b) concerns about impact
of oil in the cold waters of the Arctic?
This news report describes the grounding of Shell’s Kulluk Oil Drilling rig near Kodiak island in
southern Alaska (not Arctic) in December 2012:
READ: http://www.adn.com/2014/04/03/3408251/kulluk-grounding-coast-guard-report.html
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
To understand what the effects of a large oil spill may be like, read the following short
summaries regarding the Exxon-Valdez oil spill, the largest in U.S. history, which happened to
be carrying oil from Alaska’s North Slope:
READ: http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/oil-and-chemical-spills/significant-incidents/exxonvaldez-oil-spill/
Of particular interest is the timeline for recovery of marine life and habitats, 25 years after the
spill:
READ: http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/oil-and-chemical-spills/significant-incidents/exxonvaldez-oil-spill/timeline-ecological-recovery-infographic.html
This article describes the effect of the oil spill on the town of Cordova, 25 years later.
READ: http://www.npr.org/2014/03/24/292411071/25-years-after-spill-alaska-town-strugglesback-from-dead-zone
Discussion 15:
a) Are good management and better technology sufficient to prevent an oil spill in the
Arctic? Another way to consider this question is to ask what factors increase the chance
of an oil spill in the Arctic. For instance robust technology, good management and
ethical practices could be put in place, but there are also physical factors. To what
extent are these various factors controllable?
b) The timeline of recovery for marine life gives a broad overview of the effect of the Exxon
Valdez spill on the environment. Contrast that with the specificity of the experiences of
the Cordova residents. What does ‘recovery’ mean for those at ground zero of an
environmental disaster, whether human or animal?
c) If an oil spill does occur, the cleanup involves management of people and resources as
well as technology (special equipment). The risk to communities depends on what
communities consider an acceptable risk. For instance, some communities might
consider that the risk of a large oil spill is worth it if they depend on an oil and gas
economy. Others may not think the risk is worth taking. If your hometown was in a
coastal area that suffered an oil spill, what would be your community’s reaction? Note
that the community that has hired you will not necessarily share the same values and
priorities as your home community.
d) To what extent should we consider the impact on wildlife and the environment when
weighing the risks of an oil spill? How might the Iñupiat community that has hired you
differ from other communities in the U.S. or around the world on this question?
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
e) Note that there are two readings where the word ‘inevitable’ is used. One, on page 15
of Kate Stafford’s report on anthropogenic sounds and bowhead whales (“Given the
inevitability of increasing anthropogenic sound in the Arctic…”) and two, in the opening
sentence of the second reading on oil spills in the Arctic, from the website of the journal
Science (“the threat of a major Arctic oil spill looms ever larger—and the United States
has a lot of work to do to prepare for that inevitability…”) Contrast the use of
‘inevitable’ in these two instances. We know that if you let go of a rock from the top of
a cliff, it is inevitable that it will fall. This inevitability comes from physical law. Are
social and economic trends ‘inevitable’ in the same sense? Are there examples from
society and history that indicate that something once considered inevitable may have
turned out not to be? What about ‘inevitability’ with regard to an Arctic oil spill? On
what factors -- social, economic, cultural, physical -- might the use of the word be
based?
Responses of Industry, Native Communities, and Environmentalists to Oil and Gas Activity
Potential Impacts
Industry Response to the impact of anthropogenic sound on whales
Industry and government projections consider further oil and gas exploration in the Arctic
to be inevitable. From this perspective it is worthwhile to investigate technological and
other options that could minimize damage to whales.
This four-page article from the oil company Conoco-Phillips describes the industry response
to concerns about anthropogenic sound adversely affecting marine mammals:
READ:
http://alaska.conocophillips.com/Documents/SMID_056_Bowhead_Whale_Fact_Sheet.pdf
and watch a short video (#2) on this page where a scientist working with British Petroleum
talks about her work on bowhead whales and anthropogenic sound :
VIEW: http://cetus.ucsd.edu/voicesinthesea_org/videos/videoBowheadMeet.html
Discussion 16:
a) What are some of the ways in which oil and gas activity in the Arctic can be adjusted
around the needs of marine mammals? What kinds of technological solutions, if
properly implemented, could decrease damage to whales?
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
Industry Response to the possibility of Oil Spills in the Arctic
Read Exxon-Mobil’s response to the challenge of drilling in the Arctic, specifically pages 6-7
on Oil Spill Prevention and page 10 for a diagram of an oil spill and oil dissipation in the
environment. Pages 12-14 cover Oil Spill Response Preparedness and Pages 15-25 cover Oil
Spill Response Options. These need not be covered in detail, but with sufficient attention
to understand that oil spill cleanups are complex, expensive and time-consuming.
READ SELECTED PORTIONS:
http://corporate.exxonmobil.com/~/media/Brochures/2013/news_pub_2013-arctic-spillprevent.pdf
Range of Responses of Native Communities
In the absence of a scientifically conducted survey, we cannot say how many people are for
or against oil and gas drilling, either among Native communities globally or on the North
Slope of Alaska. However the following references give us an idea of the range of opinion,
and some insight into why people hold them.
In 2009, the Indigenous People’s Summit on Climate Change was held in Anchorage, Alaska.
The declaration is here:
READ: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/smsn/ngo/168.pdf.
This news item gives an idea of some of the divisions with regard to oil and gas drilling.
Note that both this reference and the previous one reflect the views of indigenous peoples
from 80 nations, not just Alaskans.
READ: http://phys.org/news159860957.html
More recently, in 2014, this news report describes differences in opinions among
communities of the Arctic Slope.
READ: http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20140223/alaska-north-slope-communitiesdivided-arctic-drilling-delayed
An Environmentalist Organization’s Response to Oil and Gas Drilling Impacts on the Arctic
The environmental group Greenpeace has called for the Arctic to be off-limits to oil and gas
drilling. Learn about their position on the page below (scroll down).
READ: http://www.savethearctic.org/
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
Discussion 17:
a) From your readings, what are the positions of the fossil fuel industry, the native
communities and the environmental group Greenpeace with regard to the potential
impact of oil and gas activity in the Arctic?
b) What are the justifications that each group has for their positions(s)? Note that when
there are different opinions within one group, such as the Native communities, you
should clearly understand what they are, and why people feel that way.
PART IV: RENEWABLES IN ALASKA
Figure 11. Wind turbines installed in Kwigillingok, Alaska, as part of the Chaninik Wind
Group Multi-Village Wind Heat Smart Grid Project.
We first explore briefly why renewable energy sources are important globally. We examine two
motivating factors for renewables.
The Big Picture: Motivation for Renewables Worldwide
1) Concerns about Climate Disruption
 In the Climate Change unit preceding this case study, you learned about planetary
limits to carbon dioxide emissions that would keep the global average surface
temperature from rising above 2°C by 2100. Review the key arguments and figures
by re-reading this summary article.
REVIEW: http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20140213/climate-change-sciencecarbon-budget-nature-global-warming-2-degrees-bill-mckibben-fossil-fuelskeystone-xl-oil
 Read also this summary of the UN’s IPCC Report of March, 2014
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
REVIEW: http://www.un.org/climatechange/blog/2014/03/ipcc-report-severe-andpervasive-impacts-of-climate-change-will-be-felt-everywhere/
 To understand how renewables might help mitigate the effects of climate change,
read this press release from the UN’s IPCC Special Report on Renewables, 2011.
READ: http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/press/content/potential-of-renewable-energyoutlined-report-by-the-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change
2) Concerns about the potential for decline in fossil fuel production, revenue and
investment
 This Washington Post article titled “Oil is Getting Harder and Harder to Find”
READ: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/post/most-of-the-worldsoil-comes-from-aging-fields/2011/12/13/gIQAaM6CsO_blog.html
 This 2014 article in the New York Times reports falling quarterly earnings of oil
companies due to lower production of oil and gas.
READ: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/31/business/fourth-quarter-earnings-fallat-exxon-mobil-and-shell.html?_r=0
 Concerns about a financial ‘carbon bubble’ or ‘stranded assets’ come from the
Grantham Institute at the London School of Economics, and the Carbon Tracker
Initiative. Read the Letter to Readers on page 3, and the Executive Summary on
pages 4-5.
READ SELECTED PORTIONS: http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wpcontent/uploads/2014/02/PB-unburnable-carbon-2013-wasted-capital-strandedassets.pdf
 This news article describes concerns about the carbon bubble expressed by a House
of Commons report in the U.K.
READ: http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26455763
Concerns about climate change and the carbon bubble have led to a movement for
divestment from fossil fuels that includes college students and religious groups. An
Oxford University study [9] states that although the financial effect of divesting from
fossil fuel stocks will be negligible, the symbolic value of the growing movement
may, in conjunction with other initiatives on climate change, have an impact. Here
is a 2013 news article from the Washington Post.
READ: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/2013/11/25/45a545e652fc-11e3-a7f0-b790929232e1_story.html.
In April, 2014, two major financial investment companies, Blackrock and FTSE,
created a fossil-fuel free investment fund. Read this short news article.
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
READ: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/financial-firms-launch-fossil-free173628020.html
 Note that Exxon Mobil, the world’s largest fossil fuel company, disagrees with the
notion of a carbon bubble. Read Page 1, especially paragraph 3 of its response to
stakeholder concerns about stranded assets.
READ SELECTED PORTIONS:
http://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/Files/Other/2014/Report%20%20Energy%20and%20Carbon%20-%20Managing%20the%20Risks.pdf
Discussion 18:
a) What are some compelling reasons for considering renewable energy? What does the
UN report referenced in this section estimate with regard to the percent of the world’s
energy demands that renewables can meet by 2050?
b) What is the trend with regard to oil production and earnings?
c) What do the terms ‘carbon bubble’ and ‘stranded assets’ mean? What would happen to
the worth of fossil fuel stocks if the idea of the carbon bubble is real? What is the
response of the oil industry giant Exxon Mobil?
d) Discuss the divestment movement as a response to the carbon bubble. What
considerations might motivate such a movement? Ethical? Economic? Other?
Alaska: The Case for Renewable Energy
This section contains references that give a general, qualitative idea of why and to what extent
it might make sense to consider renewable energy such as wind, solar, geothermal and ocean
sources in Alaska. Since the terrain and climate of Alaska differ from place to place, the choice
of renewables will depend on what will work best in a particular region. For instance tides are
quite small on the North Slope of Alaska, so tidal energy is not a plausible alternative there;
however tidal energy appears more feasible in the Bering Strait region.
Read this 2012 summary report from a U.S. government agency about oil production in the
North Slope: READ: http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=7970
A 2013 “Renewable Energy Atlas of Alaska” provides information on current energy sources in
the state, as well as the possibilities for different kinds of renewable energy in various locations.
Read the Introduction, “Why Renewable Energy is Important,” and then look at the current
energy profile of the state via the map on page 3. The information in terms of percent is
expressed as a pie chart at the top of page 5. Look at the map on page 15 and consider the
potential for solar energy, knowing that for six months of the year, the North Alaskan winter is
almost devoid of sunlight. Now consider the map on page 17, which displays the wind power
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
potential in the state. Might wind power be feasible for our fictional community? View also
the map on page 27 showing energy efficiency programs, and read the Rural Alaska Case Study
on Page 27.
READ AND VIEW SELECTED PORTIONS: http://alaskarenewableenergy.org/wpcontent/uploads/2009/04/2013-RE-Atlas-of-Alaska-FINAL.pdf
A Report, “Stranded Renewable Energy Resources of Alaska,” from the Alaska Center for Energy
and Power and UAF for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2012, gives an idea of the
range of renewable energy possibilities in Alaska. Read pages (i) through the first two
paragraphs of page (iv) of the Executive Summary.
READ SELECTED PORTIONS: http://www.uaf.edu/files/acep/Standed-Renewables-ReportFinal.pdf
Below is a link to a report by a company called V3 Energy LLC is a feasibility study for wind
energy at Wainwright, a settlement not far from the location of our fictional community.
Consult the map on which you marked the fictional village, and note the location of
Wainwright. Read the Executive Summary on Page 1 and Pages 2-3 of the Introduction.
READ SELECTED PORTIONS: http://www.v3energy.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/v3energy-wainwright-feasibility-study.pdf
Discussion 19:
a) What might be some compelling reasons to consider sources of renewable energy in
Alaska?
b) What is a “stranded renewable energy resource?” Of the ones listed in the third reading
above, which as yet underdeveloped resources might meet or exceed regional and
state-wide energy needs?
c) What is the current source of energy for Wainwright? How much of the energy needs
would wind energy meet for this community?
d) From the Alaska Atlas of Renewable energy, what kinds of alternative energy might
work for the people of our fictional community? Consider a mix of energy sources, not
necessarily a single source. Include energy efficiency.
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
PART V: PLANNING FOR AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE
Figure 12. Polar Bear at Barrow High School Athletic field, near Barrow, Alaska.
A glance at the concept maps on pages 8 and 9 of this case study indicates that you have, by
now, studied, researched and discussed the topics in each bubble of the map. You are now in a
position to put your knowledge and understanding together (recall the links between the
bubbles) so that you can advise the community on each option laid out in the table on pages 6
and 7 of this case study. Recall that you are charged with providing long-term as well as shortterm scenarios, and local as well as global perspectives for each option.
Before undertaking the last step of this case study, it is important to become familiar with some
terms and concepts relevant to planning about the future, since you will be using them in your
final report. Read through the list below.
Keywords: risk, risk assessment, acceptable risk, precautionary principle, scenario-based
planning
Risk assessment: the quantitative or qualitative calculation of the risk of occurrence of
certain negative events. For instance, insurance companies assess the risk of flooding
for a house in a low-lying area. Another everyday example is the risk of rain on a certain
day.
Acceptable risk: A risk of an activity or outcome is judged acceptable if the perceived
benefits outweigh the costs. For instance if the risk is below a certain quantitative
value, it might be considered acceptable. Whether a risk is acceptable or not is a
judgment of the person or persons involved. For instance if you step out without an
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
umbrella because you think getting soaked is worth not carrying the umbrella around,
that is your personal decision based on your values, or what you think is important in
that given situation.
Precautionary principle or precautionary approach – “In decision making, the
precautionary principle is considered when possibly dangerous, irreversible, or
catastrophic effects are identified, but scientific evaluation of the potential damage is
not sufficiently certain, and actions to prevent these potential adverse effects need to
be justified.” This is from a section titled “Precautionary Considerations” from the IPCC
working group on mitigation.
READ: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg3/index.php?idp=437
Scenarios Planning – “Scenarios are essentially a collective set of assumptions about
possible futures, intended to give the decision-maker a strategy-planning framework.”
[10] You will recognize that you have come across scenarios before, in the unit on
climate change that preceded this case study. The IPCC presents future emissions
scenarios that range from stopping emissions in 2020 to ‘business as usual.’ Note also
that climate models give reasonable predictions for long time scales and large regions.
But the model grid sizes are only about 100 km x 100 km in 2014. Most communities
exist in smaller regions than this, and planning and preparation for climate change
occurs at these smaller scales. Yet model predictions on small scales have very high
uncertainties, due to both inherent variability in the climate system and the limitations
of the models. So how might communities plan for the future? By developing various
scenarios of the future, and planning adaptively for them. To get an idea, look at this
page from the Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning.
EXAMINE: http://www.snap.uaf.edu/
OPTIONAL: Read Section 5, ‘Preparing for the Future,’ of the paper “Indigenous
Frameworks for Observing and Responding to Climate Change in Alaska.”
READ: http://www.lter.uaf.edu/pdf/1733_Cochran_Huntington_2013.pdf
Just as the IPCC does not have any decision-making powers – it can only present to people what
the impacts and possibilities might be for an array of future scenarios – the purpose of this case
study is not for you, the student-consultants, to make decisions for the community that has
hired you. Your job is to gather reliable sources of information, assess them, and respond to
the possible future scenarios. For instance, one scenario is that the community supports offshore and on-land oil and gas drilling. What are the risks from these activities, and what are the
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
benefits? How might things play out in the long term? In what way does the global picture
affect the local? For the purposes of this student exercise, we will not be assessing risks
formally or quantitatively, but we will be able to summarize what is known about the risks (for
example) of off-shore drilling. Because we know what is important to the community (e.g. the
whaling tradition) we will be able to speak to that concern based on information grounded in
research.
Review the Concept Map on Page 10. Below is the table of options considered by the
community. Review the Potential Community Benefits and Community Concerns.
Option
Scenario, short and long term
Support off-shore and onshore drilling
Oppose off-shore but support
on-shore drilling
Support off-shore but oppose
on-shore drilling
Oppose both off-shore and
on-shore drilling and come up
with alternatives
Group Activity:
Your instructor will divide you into four groups, one for each option. Each group will
brainstorm the option it has been assigned by developing a short-term and long-term scenario
for that option. The key features of the scenarios will be written on post-it notes of a particular
color that will then be posted to the classroom wall. By the end of this exercise, you will have
four different-colored collections of post-it notes on the wall.
Each group will then review the others’ works, and there will be a constructive critique session
where any omissions or errors may be corrected.
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
Finally, you will have an opportunity as a group to present your scenario to the class, either as
an oral presentation or in the form of a poster, as though you were presenting to the
community that hired you.
Post-Case-Study Final Discussion/Debriefing:
Recall your informal discussion at the start of this case study. Discuss:
a) What you learned since then about climate disruption in the Arctic, Iñupiaq culture and
traditions, and oil and gas activity in the Arctic
b) Your thoughts on evidence-based learning, making decisions and forming opinions based
on evidence from reliable sources
c) Your thoughts on different arenas of knowledge, and how one might integrate them to
understand real-world situations
d) Your thoughts on complexity as it plays out in global climate and human systems
e) The use of concept maps and group exercises in order to gain a broad understanding of
how different issues and knowledge systems might intersect
f) Any closing thoughts on this case study
NOTES AND REFERENCES
[1] Like the narrative and the community, this newsletter is fictional.
[2] The story appears here http://arcticcircle.uconn.edu/intro.html where it is attributed to
Iñupiaq educator and academic Dr. Edna MacLean
[3] In reality the location of our fictional community would fall within the North Slope Borough,
a province of the state of Alaska, but for the purposes of this exercise we assume that this
community is outside the NSB.
[4] Nancy Neakok Leavitt, as quoted in The Meaning of Ice: People and Sea Ice in Three Arctic
Communities, edited by Gearheard, Holm, Huntington, Leavitt, Mahoney, Opie, Oshima and
Sanguya, International Polar Institute, August 2013.
[5] Ice-Albedo Feedback http://umaine.edu/maineclimatenews/blog/2011/07/06/loops-ofchange-the-positive-feedback-loops-that-drive-climate-change-part-i/
[6] Arctic Amplification http://news.sciencemag.org/2013/08/scienceshot-arctic-warmingtwice-fast-rest-world
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
[7] Sea Ice terminology http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/index.html and links therein
[8] Arctic Methane outgassing http://www.sciencemag.org/content/327/5970/1246
[9] Fossil Fuel Divestment http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/research/stranded-assets/SAPdivestment-report-final.pdf
[10] As quoted in “Scenarios as a tool to understand and respond to change,” by John E. Walsh,
Marc Mueller-Stoffels and Peter H. Larsen, in North by 2020: Perspectives on Alaska’s Changing
Social-Ecological Systems, eds. Lovecraft and Eicken, University of Alaska Press (2011)
PICTURE CREDITS
Figure 1: http://www.uaf.edu/anla/collections/map/;
Figure 2: http://www.blm.gov/ak/st/en/prog/energy/oil_gas/npra.html
Figure 3, http://www.doi.gov/news/doinews/2010_03_31_news.cfm
Figure 4, NASA http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/sea_ice.php
Figure 5, Sea Ice Extent Graph: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/tag/arctic-seaice/page/2/
6. Figure 6, Permafrost map: https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/frozenground/whereis_fg.html
7. Figure 7, Bowhead Whale Habitat Extent:
http://frontierscientists.com/2013/01/endangered-bowhead-whale/
8. Figure 8, Gazprom Drilling Rig photo:
http://www.gazprom.com/press/news/2012/august/article141277/
9. Figure 9, Arctic Oil and Gas reserves Map, UNEP/Grid-Arendal
http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/fossil-fuel-resources-and-oil-and-gas-productionin-the-arctic_a9ca
10. Figure 10, Arctic Passages. UNEP/Grid-Arendal
http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/arctic-sea-routes-northern-sea-route-andnorthwest-passage_ba56
11. Figure 11, Wind Turbines in Alaska. http://energy.gov/indianenergy/articles/winningfuture-chaninik-wind-group-pursues-innovative-solutions-native-alaska
12. Figure 12, Polar Bear at Barrow High School Athletic Fields Near Barrow, Alaska.
http://www.thewizofodds.com/the_wiz_of_odds/barrow_whalers/page/2/
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
FURTHER READING:
Specific References are embedded in the Readings and Viewings. For general references, see
below.
On Iñupiat Eskimos:
1. The Meaning of Ice: People and Sea Ice in Three Arctic Communities, edited by
Gearheard, Holm, Huntington, Leavitt, Mahoney, Opie, Oshima and Sanguya,
International Polar Institute, August 2013
2. Gift of the Whale: Iñupiat Bowhead Hunt, a Sacred Tradition, by Bill Hess, Sasquatch
Books, September 1999
On Climate Change in general:
1. A 1-page overview of the science from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency:
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/overview.html
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Key indicators of climate change http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators/
Evidence that climate change is occurring http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
Causes of global climate disruption http://climate.nasa.gov/causes/
Current and future consequences http://climate.nasa.gov/effects/
The Consensus: 97% agreement. http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (released in 2013-2014)
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/ includes a Summary for Policy Makers
http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf.
8. “Iconic Graphs of Climate Change” http://mathbench.umd.edu/modules/climatechange_iconic-graphs/main.htm. In particular the graph labeled ‘Stories About the
Future’ teaches about different emissions scenarios.
9. Planetary Limits on carbon dioxide
Unburnable carbon:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/mindylubber/2013/06/12/unburnable-carbon-or-nofossil-fuel-companies-face-a-climate-catch22/#./?&_suid=1398455313120034324816037507305
Report from the London School of Economics and the Carbon Tracker Institute
http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/publication/unburnable-carbon-2013-wastedcapital-and-stranded-assets/
10. Introduction to Complex Systems:
http://serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/complexsystems/introduction.html
11. Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast by David Archer. Wiley, 2011
STUDENT CASE STUDY—SINGH
On Climate Change in Alaska:
1. Climate Change in the Arctic, website of the National Snow and Ice Data Center
https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/arctic-meteorology/climate_change.html.
2. International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/
3. North by 2020: Perspectives on Alaska’s Changing Social-Ecological Systems, edited by
Amy Lauren Lovecraft and Hajo Eicken, University of Alaska Press, 2011. Table of
Contents at http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/publications/eicken/Nx2020_TOC.pdf.
About the Author
Vandana Singh has a PhD in theoretical particle physics and a deep interest in the intersection
of science, the environment, and the humanities. She traveled to Alaska (Anchorage, Fairbanks
and Barrow) in Spring 2014 as part of the preparation for this Case Study, where she had a
chance to walk on the edge of the frozen Arctic Ocean, and where she met with a number of
people, including Inupiaq Elders, a whaler, and several scientists and scholars, all of whom gave
generously of their time, knowledge and insights. She is an Associate Professor of Physics at
Framingham State University in Massachusetts, where she researches creative pedagogies and
multidisciplinary approaches to STEM education, with an emphasis on climate change. She
enjoys science fiction literature, music from multiple traditions, and learning new things.