Plan Implementation Part II
Jennifer Evans-Cowley, PhD, AICP
Professional Development Officer, Ohio
Key Concepts
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Taxes
Budgeting
Organizational Structure
Comprehensive Planning
Strategic Planning
Citizen Participation
“A budget may be characterized as a series of goals with
price tags attached” Aaron Wildavsky
Types of Taxes
• Regressive
• Progressive
Types of Revenue
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Property Tax
Income Tax
Sales Tax
Fees for Service
Grants
Methods of Finance
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Pay as you go
Reserve Funds
General Obligation Bonds
Revenue Bonds
Lease-Purchase
Special Districts
Special Assessments
Grants
Tax Increment Financing
Types of Budgeting Systems
• Line Item Budgeting
• Planning, Programming and Budgeting
Systems (PPBS)
• Management by Objective (MBO)
• Zero-Base Budget (ZBB)
Capital Improvements Program
• What is a Capital Improvement?
– Is a public facility that constitutes a major expenditure
and a long life involving nonrecurring expenditures
• What is a Capital Improvement Program?
– A guide to the provision of capital improvements by
balancing revenues, expenditures, as well as
sequencing of acquisition actions. It is linked to the
goals established within the comprehensive plan.
Bond Rating System
• Firms
– Standard & Poor’s AAA - C
– Moody’s Investors Service Aaa - C
• Two Types Issuer and Issue Rating
Certificates of Obligation
• What is a CO?
– Higher Interest Rate
– Does not have to be Voter Approved
Project Management
• Program Evaluation Review Technique
(PERT): Project management technique that
defines shared activities and creates a
sequence of events.
• Critical Path Programming (CPP): The
critical path of activities to complete a
project.
Forms of Local Govt
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Weak Mayor-Council
Strong Mayor-Council
Commission Plan
Council-Manager
Types of Local Governments
• General-purpose local government –
counties, municipalities, towns and
townships.
• Single-purpose local government – School
districts and special districts.
Span of Control
• Heirarchical
Manager
Technical Manager
Technician
Technician
Administrator
Planner
Administrative Asst.
Planner
Planning Assistant
Clerk
Intern
Planning Assistant
Span of Control
• Flat
Manager
Technician
Administrator
Administrative Asst.
Clerk
Organizational Center
• Staff Functions – Support line positions
– Budgeting, Human Resources
• Line Functions – Provide direct service
– Water, Parks
Work Areas
• Function – transportation, historic
preservation
• Process – zoning review, demographic
analysis
• Time – current v. long range
• Area - neighborhoods
Centralization
• Centralized - functional
• Decentralized – typically by area
Comprehensive Planning
• The official statement of a legislative body that
sets forth its major policies concerning
desirable future physical development
• Should be adopted by the governing body
• Key Elements
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Demographics
Land use
Transportation
Community facilities
Infrastructure
Strategic Planning
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Analyze Community Needs
Determine Long Term Objectives
SWOT Analysis
Involve stakeholders
Develop and evaluate alternatives
Develop policies
Conduct evaluation
Citizen Participation
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Computer simulation
Design Charrette
Facilitated Meetings
Neighborhood organizations
Delphi Method
Task Force
Visioning
Public Hearings
Plan Making
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Research methods and techniques
Collecting data
Techniques for organizing information
Analysis of information (quantitative and
qualitative)
• Demographics
• Fiscal impact analysis
Statistics
Key Topics
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Data Types/Measurement
Descriptive Statistics
Normal Distribution
Sampling Distribution
Estimation
Types of Statistics
• Descriptive – describes data
• Inferential – tells about population
– Sample statistic to estimate population
parameter
Types of Data
• Nominal: no order: social security number
• Ordinal: order, but no magnitude: letter
grade
• Interval: order, magnitude, but no fixed
interval: example temperature
• Ratio: order, magnitude, and interval (used
for measures of central tendency): distance
Measures of Central Tendency
• Mean (average)
• Median (middle number), best for skewed
data
• Mode (most frequent number)
Categorized Data
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Frequency
Cumulative Frequency
Relative Frequency
Cumulative Relative Frequency
Frequency
Class
Frequency
Relative Freq Cumulative
Frequency
Cumulative
Relative
Frequency
40-44
2
0.05
2
0.05
45-49
6
0.14
8
0.19
50-54
12
0.29
20
0.48
55-59
12
0.29
32
0.76
60-64
6
0.14
38
0.90
65-69
4
0.10
42
1
Total
42
1.00
Normal Distribution
Planning Analysis
Key Topics
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Population Projections
Employment Forecasting
Sources of Data
Methods of Data Analysis
Population
• Current Estimates
– Most recent US Census
– Migration and Natural Increase
• Birth and Death Rates (aggregate)
• Net Migration – school enrollment
– Step Down Method
• Using data for state/county/MSA
– Other: Telephone hookups, electric meters
• Population Projections
Population Projections
• Growth Curves
– Take Current Population and Historical
Population to identify a pattern of growth, which
is used to estimate future population.
100
90
80
Gompertz
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
40
350
35
300
30
250
25
200
20
15
10
150
100
5
50
0
0
Straight Projection
Exponential
Population Projections
• Step-down Methods (state, county, MSA)
– Use ratio of population of community to a larger area
• Cohort Survival
– Birth Rate/Death Rate
– Migration Rates
Population Pyramid
Source: Vicki Male
Birth Rates
• Need a birth rate of 2.1 to maintain the
population size
• Birth rates are generally going down
– Europe birth rate of 1.5 (European Union)
– United States rate of 2.0 – 2.1 (US Census)
Data Sources
• US Bureau of the Census
(http://www.census.gov)
• FedStats (http://www.fedstats.gov)
• National Center for Health Statistics
(http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/)
• State-level Department of Health for
information on birth and death rates
Employment Data
• US Bureau of the Census – 5 year economic
census (http://www.census.gov)
• County Business Patterns
(http://www.census.gov)
• Census Transportation Planning Package
(http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ctpp/)
Economic Base Analysis
• Economic Base Analysis tries to determine the
multiplier effect
– Location Quotient (concentration of a given industry
in a given place and compares it to the nation)
Location
Quotient =
Regional Employment in
Industry I in Year T
Total Regional
Employment
in Year T
/
National Employment
in
Industry I in Year T
Total National
Employment
in Year T
Economic Base Model
• If Location Quotient is >1 exporting
employment
• If Location Quotient is <1 importing
employment
• Basic Activities can be exported, while nonBasic Activities cannot be exported
Multiplier Effect
• Total Employment/Basic Employment
• 20,000/10,000 = 2.0
• Every basic employee generates 2.0
employees. That person plus 1.0 additional
employees.
Shift-Share Analysis
• Analyzes change in employment in a given area
and given industry
• Look at two periods
• Between 1990 and 2000 the helium industry
increased employment by 3 percent in the Amarillo,
Texas Metropolitan Area. The MSA’s employment
increased by 10 percent.
• Between 1990 and 2000 the helium industry growth
was 5 percent nationally and overall employment
grew 10 percent.
Thank You!