棕榈油价格展望
2014 中国国际油脂油料大会
Sunaina Dhanuka
Macquarie 资本证券（马来西亚）有限公司
+603 20598993
sunaina.dhanuka@macquarie.com
2014 年 11 月 6 日
本研究并未考虑读者的投资目的、财务状况和具体需求。在根据本研究作出投资决策之前，读者必须自行或在顾问的协助下考虑本建议是否符合其具体的投资需求、目的和
财务状况。具体见免责声明。
上年度食用油市场总结
2013/14 年度，四大食用油品种的库存均有所增加
库存变化
百万
吨
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
2008/09
2009/10
豆油
2010/11
棕榈油
菜籽油
2011/12
葵花籽油
来源：Macquarie 研究，2014 年 10 月
第2页
2012/13
2013/14
上年度食用油市场总结
印度尼西亚棕榈油库存的增加情况……
印尼部分毛棕榈油制造商库存的同比增长情况
137%
150%
100%
67%
50%
33%
18%
32%
11%
7%
0%
-29%
-50%
-5%
-8%
-9%
-13% -13%
-23%
-35%
-41%
-57%
-66%
-100%
1Q2013
2Q2013
A 公司（包含中游）
3Q2013
B 公司 ——纯粹生产毛棕榈油
4Q2013
1Q2014
C 公司（包含下游）
来源：公司数据，Macquarie 研究，2014 年 10 月
第3页
2Q2014
上年度食用油市场总结
不仅食用油库存增加，油籽库存也有所恢复，表明 2014/15 年度的食用油压
榨量可能很高
库存使用比
27.9%
30.0%
25.6%
24.5%
25.0%
21.9%
20.8%
20.0%
15.0%
12.8%
11.3%
11.0%
9.1%
10.0%
7.8%
5.0%
0.0%
09/10
10/11
11/12
菜籽
12/13
大豆
来源：美国农业部，Macquarie 研究，2014 年 10
月
第4页
13/14
上年度食用油市场总结
4 方“需求争夺战”大大压缩了价差
植物油价格（鹿特丹）
毛棕榈油价格折扣
美元/吨
美元/吨
1,350
1,250
1,150
1,050
950
850
葵花籽油
菜籽油
豆油
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
650
Jan-13
750
葵花籽油
当前
菜籽油
历史平均
棕榈油
来源：彭博社，Macquarie 研究，2014 年 10 月
来源：彭博社，Macquarie 研究，2014 年 10 月
第5页
豆油
2014/15 年度供应情况……
菜籽油产量小幅增长，葵花籽油产量停滞不前
菜籽油产量
葵花籽油产量
百万吨
28.0
百万吨
17.0
27.0
26.2
26.0
26.8
23.8
24.0
13.6
14.0
23.7
12.9
13.0
23.0
12.6
12.4
12.0
21.4
22.0
11.0
21.0
20.0
15.3
15.0
25.1
24.4
25.0
16.2
16.0
10.1
10.0
19.6
9.0
19.0
来源：油世界，Macquarie 研究，2014 年 10 月
8.0
来源：油世界， Macquarie 研究，2014 年 10 月
第6页
16.0
2014/15 年度供应情况……
大豆——我们预计南美洲将继续大面积种植
问题是单产能够达到什么水平；我们认为可能不太理想
大豆-玉米价格比
3.90
3.50
3.10
2.70
2.30
1.90
大豆-玉米价格比
平均
+1 S.D
来源：彭博社，Macquarie 研究，2014 年 10 月
第7页
-1 S.D.
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
1.50
棕榈油供应情况
当前棕榈油市场熊市的种子在 2005-2011 年就已经种下
马来西亚 – 新增种植面积（公顷）
印度尼西亚 – 新增种植面积（百万公顷）
0.70
250,000
0.60
200,000
0.50
0.40
150,000
0.30
100,000
0.20
0.10
50,000
来源：MPOB，Macquarie 研究，2014 年 11 月
来源：BPS，Macquarie 研究，2014 年 11 月
第8页
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
2001
2000
-
第9页
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
吨 / 公顷
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
Jan-02
Jan-01
Jan-00
2014/15 年度棕榈油供应情况
但是，油棕的生物产量周期即将转负
马来西亚鲜果串单产同比变化情况
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
2014/15 年度需求情况
所有主要消费国在过去两年中也增加了库存
如果他们计划在 2014/15 年度使用新增的库存，那么进口需求不太可能增长，
尽管消费量有所增加
主要消费国的进口需求
11.4
11.3
12.0
10.3
9.7
10.0
8.3
7.5
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.6
1.2
0.3
0.0
欧盟
13/14 年度净进口量
中国
库存增加（12-14 年度）
印度
14/15 年度净进口量预测
来源：Macquarie 研究，2014 年 10 月
第 10 页
毛棕榈油价格下跌能否拉高需求？
印度由于货币疲软，目前尚未从毛棕榈油价格下跌中显著获益
中国的棕榈油 – 豆油价差非常小
印度毛棕榈油到岸价格
天津棕榈油-豆油价差
卢比/吨
元/吨
60,000
500
50,000
0
-500
40,000
-1,000
30,000
-1,500
20,000
-2,000
10,000
-2,500
-3,000
-
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
截至
目前
来源：彭博社，Macquarie 研究，2014 年 11 月
当前
-3,500
价格
来源：彭博社，Macquarie 研究，2014 年 11 月
第 11 页
600
500
400
300
200
100
-100
-200
-300
-400
毛棕榈油(-)汽油l
来源：彭博社，Macquarie 研究，2014 年 10 月
第 12 页
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
明年毛棕榈油面临的其它挑战
能源价格下跌导致生物柴油价差缩小
如果不提供补贴或加大执行力度，印度尼西亚短期内很难实现目标
棕榈油-汽油价差
美元/吨
-69
明年毛棕榈油面临的其它挑战
欧盟将从 2015 年开始用温室气体减排配额取代生物燃料配额
棕榈油制生物柴油可能丧失需求
生物燃料标准温室气体排放量
2018 年起
最低 60%
2017 年起
最低 50%
2010/13 年起
最低 35%
温室气体减排 %
菜籽油
加氢菜籽油
菜籽生物柴油
葵花籽生物柴油
废弃物生物柴油
大豆生物柴油
棕榈油生物柴油
甲烷棕榈油生物柴油
小麦乙醇
天然气热电联产小麦乙醇
种植
甜菜乙醇
加工
运输
甘蔗乙醇
化石燃料
2018 年起
最高 33.5g
来 源 ： U F O P ， R E D 2 0 0 9 /2 8 / E C ， 2 0 1 4 年 1 1 月
第 13 页
2017 年起
最高 41.98g
2010/13 年起
最高 54.5g
温室气体排放量
这对棕榈油出口意味着什么
如果价差保持低位运行，毛棕榈油的替代品将失去发展动力
主要市场棕榈油出口量
百万吨
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
20.1
20.5
21.6
8.2
7.7
7.4
5.0
5.8
1.2
6.0
6.6
1.4
6.9
5.8
1.3
7.1
5.2
1.5
6.4
-
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15E
30.0
16.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
7.4
欧盟
美国 中国
印度
其它地
区
来源：彭博社，Macquarie 研究，2014 年 11 月
第 14 页
将所有因素综合考虑……
非棕榈油供应量的恢复将抑制棕榈油需求
食用油需求增长与供应增长
复合年均增长率
20.0%
15.0%
16. 8%
9.6%
9.3%
10.0%
7.0%
6.8%
8.7%
4.1%
7.2%
5.0%
4.1%
2.9%
4.4%
3.2%
3. 6%3.4%3. 0%
3.0%
4.9%
3.9%
2.9%
4. 2%
2.7%2. 7%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.7%
-5.0%
2001-05
食用油总体需求增长率
2005-10
2010-12
非棕榈油供应增长率
2012-13
棕榈油需求增长率
来源：MPOB，美国农业部，Macquarie 研究，2014 年 11 月
第 15 页
2013-14
2014-15E
棕榈油供应增长率
将所有因素综合考虑……
去年增加的库存很可能抑制价格大幅上涨
但是，供应增速放缓可能导致库存略微下降
如果棕榈油价格在短期内下降则可能推高需求
库存使用比
35.0%
30.8%
30.0%
26.7%
25.0%
22.4%
20.0% 17.7%
15.4%
15.0%
10.0%
23.8%
12.4%
13.7%
11.3%
25.2%
16.4% 15.4% 17.2%
16.2%
15.1%
14.8% 15.7%
12.4%
11.2% 11.9% 11.2% 11.5% 11.6% 11.8%
10.1% 10.5%
14.4% 14.3%
16.6% 15.8%
5.0%
毛棕榈油库存使用比
食用油总体库存使用比
来源：MPOB，美国农业部，Macquarie 研究，2014 年 11 月
第 16 页
14/15F
13/14
12/13
11/12
10/11
09/10
08/09
07/08
06/07
05/06
04/05
03/04
02/03
01/02
00/01
0.0%
这对毛棕榈油价格意味着什么
短期来看，由于近期豆油/豆粕供应量下
降，毛棕榈油价格可能上扬，以菜籽油为
主力的食用油供应仍然充足。
油棕可能很快将进入生物产量周期的
下行阶段，产量将因此而受限
过去三个月主要国家出口情况
- 同比变化
mt
2.00
1.68
1.50
1.00
0.06
今年的干旱将对明年的产量造成影响
-0.50
出现较弱厄尔尼诺现象的可能性仍然存在
-1.00
棕榈油库存可能在夏季开始下降，毛棕榈
油价格上升
-2.00
油籽价格低位运行可能开始限制供应增
长，但需求量达到一定水平之后最终将
对价格起到支撑作用
-1.44
大豆
菜籽
棕榈油
“如果种地的话，你可能会小赚一
笔——但必须种很大一块地”
我们的观点
2015 年毛棕榈油价格的平均水平可能在
2,300 – 2,400 林吉特之间
2015 年上半年平均价格在 2,200 林吉特左右，
下半年上升至 2,500 林吉特左右
Important disclosures:
Recommendation definitions
Volatility index definition*
Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand
This is calculated from the volatility of historic price
movements.
Outperform – return > 3% in excess of benchmark return
Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return
Underperform – return > 3% below benchmark return
Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth
plus 12 month forward market dividend yield
Macquarie – Asia/Europe
Outperform – expected return >+10%
Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10%
Underperform – expected <-10%
Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected to
move up or down 60-100% in a year – investors should be
aware this stock is highly speculative.
High – stock should be expected to move up or down at
least 40-60% in a year – investors should be aware this
stock could be speculative.
Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down
at least 30-40% in a year.
Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or
down at least 25-30% in a year.
Macquarie First South - South Africa
Outperform – return > 10% in excess of benchmark return
Neutral – return within 10% of benchmark return
Underperform – return > 10% below benchmark return
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least 15-25% in a year.
Macquarie - Canada
Financial definitions
All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments
made:
Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for
catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS
impairments & IFRS interest expense
Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property
revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority
interests
EPS = adjusted net profit /efpowa*
ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets
ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total
assets
ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds
Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation
*equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of
shares
* Applicable to Australian/NZ stocks only
Outperform – return > 5% in excess of benchmark return
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Underperform – return > 5% below benchmark return
Recommendation – 12 months
All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are
modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting
Standards).
Note: Quant recommendations may differ from
Fundamental Analyst recommendations
Macquarie - USA
Outperform – return > 5% in excess of benchmark return
Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return
Underperform – return > 5% below benchmark return
Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 30 September 2014
Outperform
Neutral
Underperform
AU/NZ
Asia
RSA
USA
CA
EUR
48.73%
33.76%
17.52%
59.90%
24.97%
15.13%
35.63%
39.08%
25.29%
42.00%
52.67%
5.33%
60.28%
36.17%
3.55%
42.11%
38.42%
19.47%
(for US coverage by MCUSA, 6.09% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
(for US coverage by MCUSA, 8.12% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
(for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.51% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Page 19
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