® Open Source Information: Heads Up for the COCOMs Robert David Steele Vivas Founder, USMC Intelligence Command Founder, OSS Network ® Plan for the Brief • • • • • • • Big Picture—Strategic Transformation IC Reform—Where OSINT Fits OSINT 101—Beyond Internet Lite COCOM OSINT JROC—Across the J’s COCOM OSINT Oversight COCOM OSINT Budget Bottom Line: Don’t Ask, Don’t Get ® Big Picture Strategic Transformation • Defense Science Board Report: Strategic Communications (July 2004) • Defense Science Board Report: Transition to and from Hostilities (December 2004) • Inter-Agency Collaboration Centers • Multi-National Information Sharing • UN Joint Military Analysis Centres ® Defense Science Board Report: Strategic Communications (July 2004) • • • • • • • Must understand global public opinion Need national center for coordinating USG Effort should be centered at State Must redefine public diplomacy and affairs Must elevate ranks of those so engaged USD Policy should be DoD focal point JCS & COCOMs must align all plans & ops ® Defense Science Board Report: Transitions (December 2004) • • • • • • • Contingency planning is a full-time mission Joint inter-agency task forces are needed COCOMs must focus on S&R mission Must integrate NGOs, other civil players Cultural knowledge is equal of combat skill COCOMs must have I&I campaign plans “Open sources can provide much of the….” S&R: Stabilization & Reconstruction I&I: Information & Intelligence ® Inter-Agency Collaboration Centers Sharing Starts with Open Sources • USSOCOM has built the first one—can copy. • SOCOM concludes there is a “mission essential need to exploit open source information for operational use. Bottom line: OSINT can increase our capability by 5X to 10X.” • SOCOM has asked for—and gotten—$10M a year, beginning this year, for generic OSINT to support all missions areas, not just intelligence. ® Multi-National Networks US Cannot Do It Alone • Africa has an Early Warning & Open Source Information Sharing Network • Caribbean is developing a law enforcement information sharing network • NATO and Partnership for Peace have created three OSINT reference documents • UN is creating regional JMAC, 1st in Africa JMAC: Joint Military Analysis Centres ® IC Reform Where OSINT Fits • • • • Collection Gaps, Context, & Cover Processing Baseline and Linkages Analytic Foundation, Warning, Framework Management Benefits – – – – Lowers over-all cost of meeting all needs Reduces time needed to satisfy many needs Increases requirements that can be satisfied Dramatically increases what can be known ® Reinforces Global Collection Open Sources – 5X to 10X Improved Coverage Digital English Language Oral/Unpublished NRO NSA Foreign Languages* Analog FBIS UN/STATE CIA/DO Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Don’t even try to access most information 2) Can’t process most hard-copy into digital 3) Can’t translate most of what we collect *33 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all. ® Can Baseline All-Source Processing More Satisfying 50% 0% Less Costly Does Not Exist OSINT HUMINT STATE SIGINT IMINT MASINT 50% ® Analytic Change #1: Multi-Cultural Bottom-Up TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL OLD SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE SECRET SOURCES & METHODS OBSCURE DETAIL TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG OBVIOUS DETAIL OPEN SOURCES & METHODS PEOPLE DECIDE MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES NEW BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING ® Analytic Change #2: The Really Big Gap I N F O R M A T I O N Available Information Actionable Intelligence The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use! TIME Open source information is more complex than secrets… ® Analytic Change #3: Threat Changes with Levels of Analysis STRATEGIC Integrated Application Military Sustainability Geographic Location Civil Allies OPERATIONAL Selection of Time and Place Military Availability Geographic Resources TACTICAL Application of Finite Resources Military Reliability Geographic Terrain TECHNICAL Isolated Capabilities Civil Stability Civil Psychology Military Lethality Geographic Atmosphere Civil Infrastructure Over time and space Channels & Borders Of strategic value Quantities & Distribution Internally available for use Volatility of sectors Training & Maintenance Mobility implications Cohesion & Effectiveness Military Systems One by One Climate Manipulation Civil Power, Transport, Communications, Finance ® OSINT 101 Beyond Internet Lite • • • • OSINT is 24/7, off-line, complex, costs $$ OSINT includes history back 200 years OSINT demands harnessing seven tribes OSINT demands structured multinational collection, processing, and analytic sharing • OSINT integrates sources, softwares, services • OSINT enhances analysis & management • OSINT is key lever for addressing asymmetric threats ® OSINT Matters Clausewitz Says So… • "By `intelligence' we mean every sort of information about the enemy and his country-the basis, in short, of our own plans and operations." Clausewitz, On War, 1832 Emphasis Added. You get no points for just knowing secrets when they are less than 2% of what you need to know, or for answering questions in the most expensive, risky, time-consuming manner possible. ® Definitions Open Source Data Open Source Information Only the in-house analyst can do this. Open Source Intelligence Validated Open Source Intelligence OSINT is not something the classified intelligence community should control—it must be equally responsive to diplomats, policymakers, operators, and logisticians—as well as all-source intelligence analysts. ® WHAT OSINT IS NOT... “…nothing more than a collection of news clippings”. “…the Internet.” “…a substitute for spies and satellites.” ® New Craft of Intelligence 90% of what we need to know is not SEOK China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Narrowly focused! I IV Lessons of History Spies & Secrecy II III Global Coverage National Intelligence Cost-Sharing with Others-Shared Early Warning Harness distributed intelligence of Nation SEOK: Secret, in English, Online, or Known to Anyone in the IC. ® Open Sources in 29+ Languages Commercial Online Books & Journals Maps & Commercial Imagery Telephone Surveys OSINT Universe Conferences & Dissertations Complex Human & IT Services Gray Literature Internet ® Internet Competency No longer a toy--now a serious source • “All-source” means all sources--the Internet is now a major source • Search engines vary. • Find images and maps. • Find experts and groups. • Limit to 1-hour efforts. • Need an Internet specialist on call. ® Commercial Online Competency 100X more important than Internet Italian intelligence chief puts AlQa'idah's assets at 5bn dollars BBC Monitoring, 05/16/2002, 142 words. CIA 'Probably' Helps Italian Subversive Groups. Xinhua News Agency, 03/20/2001, 268 words. • • • • Factiva.com DIALOG European Services Value-added is enormous--reputable sources, editorial selection, structured storage and retrieval • Need a specialist. ® Gray Literature Competency Limited edition, must know to ask • Pre-prints, technical reports, company telephone books, university yearbooks, “niche” references. • Generally requires human access and special knowledge of availability. • Unique and useful. ® Primary Research Competency Knowing Who Knows, Direct Contacts • Citation Analysis is key to finding top experts across different nations. • Using the telephone (and the Internet) to reach top experts yields powerful results. ® Citation Analysis Example DIALOG, SSCI, $1000 = Savings • DIALOG access to Social Science Citation Index • Use OSS methodology • $500 in access charges + $500 in analyst time = list of top experts on any country or topic • Then you call them... ® Analytic Toolkit Competency Software can be a curse or a help • Digital conversion, storage, visualization, and retrieval tools • Geospatial tools • Structured analysis and detection tools • Multi-media publication and presentation tools ® Geospatial Competency Maps & images make a difference • Commercial imagery cheaper than ignorance • Russian military maps of Third World vital • Post-processing support from private sector • Desktop tools for plotting information in time & space context ® Analytic Tradecraft Emerging appreciation for its value • CIA University breaking new ground • Moving away from “cutting and pasting” • Moving away from hard-copy files • Focus on learning how to think, and how to structure digital data ® Creating an OSINT Cell Central discovery, distributed exploitation • Six people can leverage global OSINT for an entire Internet Commercial Ministry or Service or Specialist Online Expert Command • This eliminates need Primary External for duplicate open Research Contracts source infrastructure All-Source Analyst/ • Also saves money Senior All-Source Collection Manager Presentation Manager ® Summary: Four Levels of War, All the J’s Strategic Planning • History J-2 J-3 J-4 J-5 J-6 J-7 J-N • Context Operational Coordination • Current Awareness • Key Personalities/Motivators Tactical Employment • Imagery & Image Maps • Translation Support Acquisition Design • Strategic Generalizations • Critical Technologies ® Burundi Exercise 1995 This is what got Lee Hamilton to recommend OSA on page 413 of 9-11 Commission Report. • • • • • • Top 10 Academics (Institute of Scientific Information) Top 10 Journalists (LEXIS-NEXIS) 20 Pol-Mil Summaries (Oxford Analytica UK) Tribal Orders of Battle (Jane’s Information Group) Russian Military Maps (East View Cartographic) Commercial Imagery (SPOT Image—today many vendors) Six Phone Calls, Overnight Response. Need to know who knows…. ® ® NATO OSINT ® Seven Intelligence Tribes: National The Way Ahead Religions & Clans NGO & Media Military Academic Law Enforcement Business ® State of the Tribes Today 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Objective National Military Business Academic • • • • • • • National Military Business Academic Law Enforcement NGO-Media Religious 50% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 20% NGO-Media We have much to do. Religious ® OSINT Benefits Statement Every Single COCOM Needs to Focus Now… • Why Focus on OSINT? • Program Elements – – – – Non-state, lower tier Complex emergencies Limited secret coverage Information explosion • Immediate Benefits – Insurance policy – Improves coverage – Improves coalitions – – – – – – – – Digital History Project NGO Data Network Generic Training Teams Generic Analytic Tools Generic Standards University of the Republic Virtual Task Forces Regional OSINT Centers ® Regional Intelligence Center Chief of Center Singapore Deputy for Collection Australia OSINT HUMINT IMINT SIGINT Deputy for Processing Malaysia Digitization Translation Visualization Analytic Support Deputy for Counterintelligence Japan Deputy for Analysis China Warning Estimative Countries Issues Deputy for Covert Action Thailand ® COCOM OPG VPN Getting a grip on every topic, 24/7 ® Creating the World Brain: Web-Based Virtual Intelligence Teams Expert Forum Shared Calendar Distance Learning Shared Rolodex OPG VPN Shared 24/7 Plot Virtual Library Virtual Budget Weekly Review • • • • • • • • Weekly report Distance learning Virtual library Expert Forum Shared directory Shared calendar Shared budget Shared “plot” (map) ® World War III Players NationStates Private Sector Bacteria Education vs. Catastrophe Homo Sapiens vs. Bacteria Governments vs. Gangs Citizens Citizens vs. Corporations Gangs Mother Earth Water-Air-Green ® Conflict Facts for 2002 23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC Pol Terror Level 3 Imprisonment, executions Pol Terror Level 4 Large numbers, torture Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman Pol Terror Level 5 Entire public, no limits ® Global Threats to Local Survival Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Food Security 33 Countries Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Corruption Common 80 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries *State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002 ® Four Different Threats to America: Require Four Different Security Approaches PHYSICAL STEALTH, HIGH TECH PRECISION BRUTES TARGETING (BIG WAR) ECONOMIC WAR HIGH TECH CYBER STEALTH, DATABASE TARGETING GUERRILLA WAR MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS POWER BASE KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY SEERS (HOME) CULTURAL WAR NATURAL LOW TECH STEALTH, BRUTES RANDOM (GANGS) TARGETING TERRORISM LOW TECH SEERS IDEO - (POOR) STEALTH, MASS TARGETING ® COCOM OSINT JROC IMHO, We Have Not Really Done JROC Right… • • • • • • • J-2: Warning, Historical, Ethnic, Basic J-3: OOTW, Coalition, S&T, NGOs, PMIs J-4: Maps, Geospatial, Fuel, Water, Etc. J-5: Mid & long-term plans support J-6: Telecommunications, IO, PSYOP? J-7: Joint & Coalition Inter-operability J-N: RW-RT Simulation Feeds, Etc. JROC: Joint Required Operational Capability ® COCOM OSINT Oversight Direct Report to DCC, All J’s Oversee • Congressman Simmons has a view on this. • J-3 manages external liaison via Civil Affairs • J-2 manages internal validation & integration – BUT may not interdict direct support to other J’s – BUT may not control nor reduce OSINT budget • COCOM OSINT is a direct report to DCC • All J’s serve on oversight board. ® COCOM OSINT Context No One Else Is Going To Meet Your Needs • Unrealistic to expect national to collect, process, or analyze open sources for military • 90% of what we need comes from people that do not want to meet or share with intelligence • Cannot predict the future—can only be alert to all weak signals in all languages all the time • Next four slides address generic capability. ® COCOM OSINT People 25 People—Six at HQS, 6 Three-Person Teams • Double-hat as inter-agency collaboration • Six people at Headquarters – Branch Chief/Collection Manager, Deputy Branch Chief & All-Source Analyst, Master Librarian, Action Officer, Contracts Officer, Geospatial Specialist, Online Search Specialist • Six three-person “information A teams” – Section Chief, Translator/Analyst, Webmaster ® COCOM OSINT Outposts There Is No Substitute for “Being There” CENTCOM EUCOM PACOM SOUTHCOM Alamaty Accra/Dakar Hanoi Bogotá Beijing Cairo Jakarta Caracas Istanbul Madrid Kuala Lumpur Montevideo Moscow Paris Kyoto Trinidad New Delhi Pretoria Manila Panama Stockholm Rome Singapore Rio de Janeiro NOTE: DoD Teams form integrated mesh, e.g. Beijing team serves all COCOMs, for example, telecomms for PACOM, trade for SOUTHCOM. ® COCOM OSINT Budget $10M Buys “Just Enough, Just in Time” • • • • • • • $3.75M for 25 trained, dedicated OSOs $1.00M for information technology & travel $1.50M for information sharing grants $1.00M for Digital Marshall Plan across AOR $2.00M for Vendor OSINT acquisition $0.50M for Vendor digitization/visualization $0.25M for Training across the AOR ® COCOM OSINT Sharing Taking Intelink to a New Level • Open Source Information System-External – – – – – – OSIS-X Extends Intelink protocols, look & feel, to all Open to NGOs, PMIs, coalition partners, etc. Harvested every five minutes back to NIPR+ Leverages SOCOM “hub” for processing Leverages Tampa as location of two COCOMs, offer up space for DoD-wide help desk ® Don’t Ask, Don’t Get • • • • • • • USDI is playing cards close to its chest. Defense Open Source Agency is possible. $125M IOC, $2B FOC, is a do-able do. Congressman Simmons owns OSINT. Congressman Davis is now interested. This is not going away. Don’t ask, don’t get.