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Open Source Information:
Heads Up for the COCOMs
Robert David Steele Vivas
Founder, USMC Intelligence Command
Founder, OSS Network
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Plan for the Brief
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Big Picture—Strategic Transformation
IC Reform—Where OSINT Fits
OSINT 101—Beyond Internet Lite
COCOM OSINT JROC—Across the J’s
COCOM OSINT Oversight
COCOM OSINT Budget
Bottom Line: Don’t Ask, Don’t Get
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Big Picture
Strategic Transformation
• Defense Science Board Report: Strategic
Communications (July 2004)
• Defense Science Board Report: Transition
to and from Hostilities (December 2004)
• Inter-Agency Collaboration Centers
• Multi-National Information Sharing
• UN Joint Military Analysis Centres
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Defense Science Board Report:
Strategic Communications (July 2004)
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Must understand global public opinion
Need national center for coordinating USG
Effort should be centered at State
Must redefine public diplomacy and affairs
Must elevate ranks of those so engaged
USD Policy should be DoD focal point
JCS & COCOMs must align all plans & ops
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Defense Science Board Report:
Transitions (December 2004)
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Contingency planning is a full-time mission
Joint inter-agency task forces are needed
COCOMs must focus on S&R mission
Must integrate NGOs, other civil players
Cultural knowledge is equal of combat skill
COCOMs must have I&I campaign plans
“Open sources can provide much of the….”
S&R: Stabilization & Reconstruction I&I: Information & Intelligence
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Inter-Agency Collaboration Centers
Sharing Starts with Open Sources
• USSOCOM has built the first one—can copy.
• SOCOM concludes there is a “mission essential
need to exploit open source information for
operational use. Bottom line: OSINT can
increase our capability by 5X to 10X.”
• SOCOM has asked for—and gotten—$10M a
year, beginning this year, for generic OSINT to
support all missions areas, not just intelligence.
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Multi-National Networks
US Cannot Do It Alone
• Africa has an Early Warning & Open
Source Information Sharing Network
• Caribbean is developing a law enforcement
information sharing network
• NATO and Partnership for Peace have
created three OSINT reference documents
• UN is creating regional JMAC, 1st in Africa
JMAC: Joint Military Analysis Centres
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IC Reform
Where OSINT Fits
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Collection Gaps, Context, & Cover
Processing Baseline and Linkages
Analytic Foundation, Warning, Framework
Management Benefits
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Lowers over-all cost of meeting all needs
Reduces time needed to satisfy many needs
Increases requirements that can be satisfied
Dramatically increases what can be known
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Reinforces Global Collection
Open Sources – 5X to 10X Improved Coverage
Digital
English
Language
Oral/Unpublished
NRO
NSA
Foreign
Languages*
Analog
FBIS
UN/STATE
CIA/DO
Cascading Deficiencies:
1) Don’t even try to access most information
2) Can’t process most hard-copy into digital
3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
*33 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.
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Can Baseline All-Source Processing
More Satisfying
50%
0%
Less Costly
Does Not Exist
OSINT
HUMINT
STATE
SIGINT
IMINT
MASINT
50%
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Analytic Change #1:
Multi-Cultural Bottom-Up
TOP-DOWN
COMMAND & CONTROL
OLD
SINGLE-CULTURE
SINGLE-ORGANIZATION
EQUITIES
LEADERS
DECIDE
SECRET
SOURCES & METHODS
OBSCURE DETAIL
TIME
IMPACT
SHORT
TIME
IMPACT
LONG
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OPEN
SOURCES & METHODS
PEOPLE
DECIDE
MULTI-CULTURAL &
TRANS-NATIONAL
EQUITIES
NEW
BOTTOM-UP
INFORMATION-SHARING
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Analytic Change #2:
The Really Big Gap
I
N
F
O
R
M
A
T
I
O
N
Available
Information
Actionable
Intelligence
The New
Intelligence
Gap: the
difference
between what
you can know
and what you
can use!
TIME
Open source information is more complex than secrets…
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Analytic Change #3:
Threat Changes with Levels of Analysis
STRATEGIC
Integrated
Application
Military Sustainability
Geographic Location
Civil Allies
OPERATIONAL
Selection of
Time and Place
Military Availability
Geographic Resources
TACTICAL
Application of
Finite Resources
Military Reliability
Geographic Terrain
TECHNICAL
Isolated
Capabilities
Civil Stability
Civil Psychology
Military Lethality
Geographic Atmosphere
Civil Infrastructure
Over time and space
Channels & Borders
Of strategic value
Quantities & Distribution
Internally available for use
Volatility of sectors
Training & Maintenance
Mobility implications
Cohesion & Effectiveness
Military Systems One by One
Climate Manipulation
Civil Power, Transport,
Communications,
Finance
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OSINT 101
Beyond Internet Lite
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OSINT is 24/7, off-line, complex, costs $$
OSINT includes history back 200 years
OSINT demands harnessing seven tribes
OSINT demands structured multinational collection,
processing, and analytic sharing
• OSINT integrates sources, softwares, services
• OSINT enhances analysis & management
• OSINT is key lever for addressing asymmetric threats
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OSINT Matters
Clausewitz Says So…
• "By `intelligence' we
mean every sort of
information about the
enemy and his country-the basis, in short, of our
own plans and
operations."
Clausewitz, On War, 1832
Emphasis Added. You get no points for just knowing secrets when they are
less than 2% of what you need to know, or for answering questions in the
most expensive, risky, time-consuming manner possible.
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Definitions
Open Source Data
Open Source Information
Only the
in-house
analyst
can do
this.
Open Source Intelligence
Validated Open Source Intelligence
OSINT is not something the classified intelligence community should
control—it must be equally responsive to diplomats, policymakers, operators,
and logisticians—as well as all-source intelligence analysts.
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WHAT OSINT IS NOT...
“…nothing more than a collection
of news clippings”.
“…the Internet.”
“…a substitute for spies and
satellites.”
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New Craft of Intelligence
90% of what we need to know is not SEOK
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
Narrowly focused!
I
IV
Lessons of History
Spies & Secrecy
II
III
Global Coverage
National Intelligence
Cost-Sharing with Others-Shared Early Warning
Harness distributed
intelligence of Nation
SEOK: Secret, in English, Online, or Known to Anyone in the IC.
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Open Sources in 29+ Languages
Commercial Online
Books &
Journals
Maps &
Commercial
Imagery
Telephone
Surveys
OSINT
Universe
Conferences &
Dissertations
Complex
Human &
IT Services
Gray
Literature
Internet
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Internet Competency
No longer a toy--now a serious source
• “All-source” means all
sources--the Internet is
now a major source
• Search engines vary.
• Find images and maps.
• Find experts and groups.
• Limit to 1-hour efforts.
• Need an Internet
specialist on call.
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Commercial Online Competency
100X more important than Internet
Italian intelligence chief puts AlQa'idah's assets at 5bn dollars
BBC Monitoring, 05/16/2002, 142
words.
CIA 'Probably' Helps Italian
Subversive Groups.
Xinhua News Agency, 03/20/2001,
268 words.
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Factiva.com
DIALOG
European Services
Value-added is
enormous--reputable
sources, editorial
selection, structured
storage and retrieval
• Need a specialist.
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Gray Literature Competency
Limited edition, must know to ask
• Pre-prints, technical
reports, company
telephone books,
university yearbooks,
“niche” references.
• Generally requires
human access and
special knowledge of
availability.
• Unique and useful.
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Primary Research Competency
Knowing Who Knows, Direct Contacts
• Citation Analysis is
key to finding top
experts across
different nations.
• Using the telephone
(and the Internet) to
reach top experts
yields powerful
results.
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Citation Analysis Example
DIALOG, SSCI, $1000 = Savings
• DIALOG access to
Social Science
Citation Index
• Use OSS methodology
• $500 in access charges
+ $500 in analyst time
= list of top experts on
any country or topic
• Then you call them...
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Analytic Toolkit Competency
Software can be a curse or a help
• Digital conversion,
storage, visualization,
and retrieval tools
• Geospatial tools
• Structured analysis
and detection tools
• Multi-media
publication and
presentation tools
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Geospatial Competency
Maps & images make a difference
• Commercial imagery
cheaper than ignorance
• Russian military maps
of Third World vital
• Post-processing support
from private sector
• Desktop tools for
plotting information in
time & space context
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Analytic Tradecraft
Emerging appreciation for its value
• CIA University
breaking new ground
• Moving away from
“cutting and pasting”
• Moving away from
hard-copy files
• Focus on learning how
to think, and how to
structure digital data
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Creating an OSINT Cell
Central discovery, distributed exploitation
• Six people can
leverage global
OSINT for an entire
Internet
Commercial
Ministry or Service or
Specialist
Online Expert
Command
• This eliminates need
Primary
External
for duplicate open
Research
Contracts
source infrastructure
All-Source Analyst/
• Also saves money
Senior All-Source
Collection Manager
Presentation Manager
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Summary:
Four Levels of War, All the J’s
Strategic
Planning
• History
J-2
J-3
J-4 J-5
J-6
J-7 J-N
• Context
Operational
Coordination
• Current Awareness
• Key Personalities/Motivators
Tactical
Employment
• Imagery & Image Maps
• Translation Support
Acquisition
Design
• Strategic Generalizations
• Critical Technologies
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Burundi Exercise 1995
This is what got Lee Hamilton to recommend OSA
on page 413 of 9-11 Commission Report.
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Top 10 Academics (Institute of Scientific Information)
Top 10 Journalists (LEXIS-NEXIS)
20 Pol-Mil Summaries (Oxford Analytica UK)
Tribal Orders of Battle (Jane’s Information Group)
Russian Military Maps (East View Cartographic)
Commercial Imagery (SPOT Image—today many vendors)
Six Phone Calls, Overnight Response. Need to know who knows….
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NATO OSINT
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Seven Intelligence Tribes:
National
The Way Ahead
Religions
& Clans
NGO &
Media
Military
Academic
Law Enforcement
Business
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State of the Tribes Today
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Objective
National
Military
Business
Academic
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National
Military
Business
Academic
Law Enforcement
NGO-Media
Religious
50%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
20%
NGO-Media
We have much to do.
Religious
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OSINT Benefits Statement
Every Single COCOM Needs to Focus Now…
• Why Focus on OSINT? • Program Elements
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Non-state, lower tier
Complex emergencies
Limited secret coverage
Information explosion
• Immediate Benefits
– Insurance policy
– Improves coverage
– Improves coalitions
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Digital History Project
NGO Data Network
Generic Training Teams
Generic Analytic Tools
Generic Standards
University of the Republic
Virtual Task Forces
Regional OSINT Centers
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Regional Intelligence Center
Chief of Center
Singapore
Deputy for Collection
Australia
OSINT
HUMINT
IMINT
SIGINT
Deputy for Processing
Malaysia
Digitization
Translation
Visualization
Analytic Support
Deputy for Counterintelligence
Japan
Deputy for Analysis
China
Warning
Estimative
Countries
Issues
Deputy for Covert Action
Thailand
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COCOM OPG VPN
Getting a grip on every topic, 24/7
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Creating the World Brain:
Web-Based Virtual Intelligence Teams
Expert Forum
Shared
Calendar
Distance
Learning
Shared
Rolodex
OPG
VPN
Shared
24/7 Plot
Virtual
Library
Virtual
Budget
Weekly Review
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Weekly report
Distance learning
Virtual library
Expert Forum
Shared directory
Shared calendar
Shared budget
Shared “plot” (map)
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World War III Players
NationStates
Private
Sector
Bacteria
Education vs. Catastrophe
Homo Sapiens vs. Bacteria
Governments vs. Gangs
Citizens
Citizens vs. Corporations
Gangs
Mother Earth
Water-Air-Green
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Conflict Facts for 2002
23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC
Pol Terror Level 3
Imprisonment, executions
Pol Terror Level 4
Large numbers, torture
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman
Pol Terror Level 5
Entire public, no limits
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Global Threats to Local Survival
Complex Emergencies
32 Countries
Water Scarcity &
Contaminated Water**
Refugees/Displaced
66 Countries
Ethnic Conflict 18
Genocides Today**
Food Security
33 Countries
Resource Wars, Energy
Waste & Pollution**
Modern Plagues*
59 Countries & Rising
Corruption Common
80 Countries
Child Soldiers
41 Countries
Censorship Very High
62 Countries
*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide),
Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002
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Four Different Threats to America:
Require Four Different Security Approaches
PHYSICAL
STEALTH,
HIGH TECH
PRECISION
BRUTES
TARGETING
(BIG WAR)
ECONOMIC
WAR
HIGH TECH
CYBER STEALTH,
DATABASE
TARGETING
GUERRILLA
WAR
MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS
POWER BASE
KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY
SEERS
(HOME)
CULTURAL
WAR
NATURAL
LOW TECH
STEALTH,
BRUTES
RANDOM
(GANGS)
TARGETING
TERRORISM
LOW TECH
SEERS
IDEO -
(POOR)
STEALTH,
MASS
TARGETING
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COCOM OSINT JROC
IMHO, We Have Not Really Done JROC Right…
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J-2: Warning, Historical, Ethnic, Basic
J-3: OOTW, Coalition, S&T, NGOs, PMIs
J-4: Maps, Geospatial, Fuel, Water, Etc.
J-5: Mid & long-term plans support
J-6: Telecommunications, IO, PSYOP?
J-7: Joint & Coalition Inter-operability
J-N: RW-RT Simulation Feeds, Etc.
JROC: Joint Required Operational Capability
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COCOM OSINT Oversight
Direct Report to DCC, All J’s Oversee
• Congressman Simmons has a view on this.
• J-3 manages external liaison via Civil Affairs
• J-2 manages internal validation & integration
– BUT may not interdict direct support to other J’s
– BUT may not control nor reduce OSINT budget
• COCOM OSINT is a direct report to DCC
• All J’s serve on oversight board.
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COCOM OSINT Context
No One Else Is Going To Meet Your Needs
• Unrealistic to expect national to collect,
process, or analyze open sources for military
• 90% of what we need comes from people that
do not want to meet or share with intelligence
• Cannot predict the future—can only be alert to
all weak signals in all languages all the time
• Next four slides address generic capability.
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COCOM OSINT People
25 People—Six at HQS, 6 Three-Person Teams
• Double-hat as inter-agency collaboration
• Six people at Headquarters
– Branch Chief/Collection Manager, Deputy Branch
Chief & All-Source Analyst, Master Librarian,
Action Officer, Contracts Officer, Geospatial
Specialist, Online Search Specialist
• Six three-person “information A teams”
– Section Chief, Translator/Analyst, Webmaster
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COCOM OSINT Outposts
There Is No Substitute for “Being There”
CENTCOM
EUCOM
PACOM
SOUTHCOM
Alamaty
Accra/Dakar
Hanoi
Bogotá
Beijing
Cairo
Jakarta
Caracas
Istanbul
Madrid
Kuala Lumpur
Montevideo
Moscow
Paris
Kyoto
Trinidad
New Delhi
Pretoria
Manila
Panama
Stockholm
Rome
Singapore
Rio de Janeiro
NOTE: DoD Teams form integrated mesh, e.g. Beijing team serves all
COCOMs, for example, telecomms for PACOM, trade for SOUTHCOM.
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COCOM OSINT Budget
$10M Buys “Just Enough, Just in Time”
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$3.75M for 25 trained, dedicated OSOs
$1.00M for information technology & travel
$1.50M for information sharing grants
$1.00M for Digital Marshall Plan across AOR
$2.00M for Vendor OSINT acquisition
$0.50M for Vendor digitization/visualization
$0.25M for Training across the AOR
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COCOM OSINT Sharing
Taking Intelink to a New Level
• Open Source Information System-External
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OSIS-X
Extends Intelink protocols, look & feel, to all
Open to NGOs, PMIs, coalition partners, etc.
Harvested every five minutes back to NIPR+
Leverages SOCOM “hub” for processing
Leverages Tampa as location of two COCOMs,
offer up space for DoD-wide help desk
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Don’t Ask, Don’t Get
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USDI is playing cards close to its chest.
Defense Open Source Agency is possible.
$125M IOC, $2B FOC, is a do-able do.
Congressman Simmons owns OSINT.
Congressman Davis is now interested.
This is not going away.
Don’t ask, don’t get.