75% water
25% land
½ is too dry or too cold
for large-scale
agriculture
75% of world population
lives along a river or
a coastline. . .
or 5% of the land area
Or. . .
½ of a ½
of a
¼
POPULATION
Population concentrations
5. NORTHEAST
NORTH
AMERICA
3. EUROPE
2. SOUTH
ASIA
1. EAST
ASIA
4. SOUTHEAST
ASIA
POPULATION
Population density
Arithmetic
density
Bangladesh
Netherlands
India
China
Virginia 2000
Virginia 2010
United States
World
Longwood
=
# people
total land area
Total Population
Total Area
(c. 2015) (square miles)
149,772,364
56,976
16,676,126
16,164
1,210,193,422
1,222,559
1,339,724,852
3,696,117
7,078,515
39,597
8,001,024
39,597
308,745,538
3,531,905
7,072,887,517
57,505,734
3,248
0.12
Arithmetic
Density
(persons/
square mile)
2,629
1,032
990
362
179
202
87
123
27,067
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Population density
Physiologic
density
Agricultural
density
Bangladesh
Netherlands
India
China
Virginia 2000
Virginia 2010
United States
World
Longwood
=
# people
total arable land
=
# people
total farmed land
Total Population
Total Area
Arable Land
(c. 2015) (square miles) (square miles)
149,772,364
56,976
30,502
16,676,126
16,164
4,118
1,210,193,422
1,222,559
610,601
1,339,724,852
3,696,117
419,469
7,078,515
39,597
12,705
8,001,024
39,597
12,705
308,745,538
3,531,905
658,304
7,072,887,517
57,505,734
16,000,049
3,248
0.120
0.068
Arithmetic Physiologic
Density
Density
(persons/
(persons/
square mile) square mile)
2,629
4,910
1,032
4,050
990
1,982
362
3,194
179
557
202
630
87
469
123
442
27,067
47,765
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Population density
Carrying Capacity:
The ability of a given amount of land
To support a given number of people
At a given level of technology
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Population density
Egypt
Egypt 2011
Population – 80,410,017
Total Land Area – 390,117 sq. mi.
Arable Land – 12,873 sq. mi. (3.3%)
Farmed Land 1,950 sq. mi. (0.5%)
Arithmetic Density
206 persons/sq. mi.
(just a bit higher than Virginia)
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Population density
Egypt
Physiologic Density:
6,246 persons/sq. mi.
Agricultural Density:
41,236 persons/sq. mi.!
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Population change
Natural
Population
Change
Migration
TP = OP + B – D + I - E
Total
Population
Original
Population
Births
Deaths
Immigra- Emigration
tion
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Population change
Rates of change
Highest – Niger: 3.52%
Lowest – Moldova: -0.68%
World average – 1.1% (down from 1.2%)
It’s all in the numbers. Take two countries with
identical growth rates (.42%)…
Grenada: 105,303 X .42% = 442 people annually
China: 1,353,600,687 X .42% = 5,685,122 people annually
That’s 70% of the population
of Virginia every year!
World: 7,072,887,517 X 1.1% = 77,801,762 people annually
That’s nearly 10
Virginias every year!
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Population change
2000
2000
2050
2050
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
High
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 5
Low
Rate
Birth rate
Total
population
Death rate
Time
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Population Pyramids
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition & population pyramids
High
Stage 1
Low
Rate
Birth rate
Total
population
Death rate
Time
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Stage 1
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition & population pyramids
High
Stage 1
Stage 2
Low
Rate
Birth rate
Total
population
Death rate
Time
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Stage 2
Nigeria
Libya
Iraq 2003
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Stage 2
[Youth serves the Fuhrer]
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Stage 2
Industrial
Revolution
Medical
Revolution
Hans Rosling video
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition & population pyramids
High
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Low
Rate
Birth rate
Total
population
Death rate
Time
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Stage 3
India
Egypt
Israel
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Stage 3
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Stage 3
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Stage 3
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Stage 3
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Stage 3
Brazil
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Stage 3
NUMBER OF CHILDREN IN THE LAST THREE GENERATIONS
60
50
Percentage
40
Grandparents
30
Parents
You
20
10
0
1-2
3-4
5-6
6-7
>7
POPULATION
Demographic Transition & population pyramids
High
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Low
Rate
Birth rate
Total
population
Death rate
Time
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Stage 4
Canada
Australia
United
States
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Stage 4
…while allowing seniors
their independence…
Social Security decreases
poverty among the elderly…
Per capita Social Security expenditures and poverty rate for 65+, 1959-2009
…and creating the
nuclear family.
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition & population pyramids
High
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 5
Low
Rate
Birth rate
Total
population
Death rate
Time
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Stage 5
Japan
Germany
Switzerland
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Stage 5
Germany
Germany's Demographic Transition
1900-2010
40
30
25
20
WW I
Stage 2
moving to
Stage 3
Hitler’s
baby
boom WW II
1972
15
10
5
0
19
0
19 0
0
19 5
1
19 0
1
19 5
2
19 0
2
19 5
3
19 0
3
19 5
4
19 0
4
19 5
5
19 0
5
19 5
6
19 0
6
19 5
7
19 0
7
19 5
8
19 0
8
19 5
9
19 0
9
20 5
0
20 0
0
20 5
10
Births/deaths per 1,000
35
Crude birth rate
Crude death rate
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Stage 5
Germany’s “Guest Workers”
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Stage 5
Germany’s “Guest Workers”
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Stage 5
Germany’s “Guest Workers”
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
U.S. population pyramids
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Geography of Ageing in the US
“Ageing in place”
Retirement
regions
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Demographic Transition
Ageing U.S. population
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Population change
Natural
Population
Change
Migration
TP = OP + B – D + I - E
Total
Population
Original
Population
Births
Deaths
Immigra- Emigration
tion
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Migration
Factors
Push (emigration)
Pull (immigration)
Political*
Economic
Environmental
Political
Economic
Environmental
Forced or voluntary?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Migrants on the Oregon Trail (1836-1869)?
Mormon Migration (1838-1867)?
African-American “Great Migration” (1910-1970)?
Okies (1930s)?
Retiring to Florida (1950-present)?
Ethnic cleansing in the former Yugoslavia (1991-1995)?
Millennial urban renaissance (2000-present)?
Europe’s Syrian refugee problem (2015)?
* Denotes a systemic influence, e.g. racism, ethnic, religious, or political persecution, war, etc.
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Migration
Emigration & Immigration
"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me.
I lift my lamp beside the golden door."
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Migration
Emigration & Immigration
Average Migrant Profile
• Young – average in the 20s (age most willing
to do hard, distasteful work)
• Educated – average some high school; the
best and brightest coming to US
(“brain drain”)
• Motivated – decision to migrate is more
than the average person is
willing to risk; willing to endure
hardship so their children will
have better lives (“American
Dream”)
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Migration
Immigration
Virginia
Region of Birth for Virginia’s Foreign Born
1990
Other
8%
2000
Other
10%
Europe
22%
Latin
Am erica
25%
2010
Latin
Am erica
33%
Asia
45%
Other
11%
Europe
15%
Asia
42%
Latin
Am erica
36%
Europe
12%
Asia
41%
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Migration
Immigration
Virginia
Hispanics
e
Population Pyramids for Hispanic Citizens and Immigrants in
Virginia, 2006
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Migration
Immigration
U.S.-Mexico border
San Diego
San Ysidro
United States
Mexico
Tijuana
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Migration
Immigration
Hispanic population: U.S., 1980-2007
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Migration
Immigration
Virginia
Hispanics
2000
2014
POPULATION
Migration
Immigration
Virginia
Hispanics
Loudoun – 14.0%
Fairfax – 16.5%
Fairfax City – 17.0%
Arlington – 15.9%
Alexandria City – 16.8%
Winchester City – 16.6%
Harrisonburg City – 19.0%
Manassas City – 34.0%
Manassas Park City – 33.4%
Prince William – 22.4%
Stafford – 11.5%
Fredericksburg City – 11.0%
Galax City – 14.6%
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Migration
Internal
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Migration
Internal
Exurban
growth
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Migration
Internal
D. Hardin
POPULATION
Migration
Local
Richmond Metropolitan Area
White Flight
Stage 2 &
New arrivals
1990s-00s
City
Inner suburbs
Outer suburbs
White Flight
Stage 1
1970s-80s
POPULATION
Demographic Transition & population pyramids
High
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 5
Low
Rate
Birth rate
Total
population
Death rate
Time
D. Hardin