SECURITY: WAR & TERRORISM
Victor Finkel
CONCEPTS
Just War Theory
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“Jus ad bellum” - Right to go to War
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Just Cause
Last Resort
Declared by Legitimate Authority
Right Intention
Reasonable Chance of Success
End Proportional to Means
“Jus in bello” – Right conduct within War
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Discrimination
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Proportionality
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Maintaining responsibility amongst soldiers
“Jus post bellum”
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How much force is appropriate?
Responsibility
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Who are legitimate targets of war?
Compensation
Rehabilitation
Punishment
Standing in International Law?
Significance of International Law?
Golden Arches Peace Theory
No two countries with McDonalds in them will go to war
-Level of Economic Developmnet; Middle Class to
support McDonald’s Network
-Symbol of economic interdependence
Fails:
Statistically speaking seemed to
work pretty well!
NATO/Serbia (2005)
India/Pakistan (Kashmir 1998)
Israel/Lebanon (2006)
Georgia/Russia (2008)
Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention
No two countries that are both part of a major global supply
chain, like Dell’s, will ever fight a war against each other as long
as they are both part of the same global supply chain.” \
Nations are unwilling to risk the employment generated by
globalizastion, and don’t fight.
Use to argue why economic ties
are a positive; e.g. in sanctions
debates
Examples:
India/Pakistan Nuclear Standoff
Taiwan/China
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Democratic Peace Theory
Democracies almost never fight with each other – lack
of any real wars between real democracies in 20th C
-Normative Reasons
-Structural Reasons
Argue that promoting democracy
has broader benefits to protecting
the security of existing democratic
nations
?democratic crusade?
1) Other explanations; e.g.
political similarity
2) Just a matter of time – e.g.
Iran (is this true democracy
though?)
3) Promoting democracy can
backfire – increase conflict
Mutually Assured Destruction vs NonProliferation
• More Nukes = More Safety!
• Presumes:
– Bipolar world
– Rational Actors
– Perfect Detection
– Perfect Lines of Communication
– Clear operating protocols
• How closely does this reflect reality?
• Are you willing to gamble on a mistake?
War vs Insurgency
War
• “Conventional Warfare”
• US etc have massive
technological superiority in
this type of conflict
• The initial campaign in Iraq
2003 was over in four weeks, 6
weeks after George Bush
declared ‘victory’
• Libyan air defences destroyed
within days by Tomohawk
missile attacks
Insurgency
• “Guerilla Warfare”
• Iraq didn’t finish till 2010;
even then not really. 10
times as many died in
insurgency as in initial war
Terrorism
• Key questions when considering counterterrorism policies
– What is the root cause of the terrorism?
– Will this tactic work given the particular structure
of the terrorist organisation?
– Will this just make things worse?
• Hearts and Minds of the people – terrorists do
not live in a vacuum. They get support. How,
Why?
TORTURE
• Once ultimate taboo, torture seems to be back in
fashion.
• Used extensively in “War on Terror” in
Guantanamo, Egypt (Extraordinary Rendition) etc
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What does torture include?
Who could it be used on?
Does it work?
Where & how will it be used? Slippery slope?
Are there other ways to have gained this information?
PIRACY
• Piracy rampant off coast of Somalia; near Suez canal –
97 attacks so far this year. Use small boats.
• Risk/Reward Equation; need to hit both sides of each
• Options
– Naval Deployment
– Arming Merchant Ships
– Land Resolution; Invasion?
• Case Study: Straights of Malacca
– 40 attacks in 2004, only 2 in 2008
– Military: Air patrols, information sharing
– Civil: End of conflict in Aceh, restoration of economy
Sovereignty
In Favour
• Sovereign Right to govern
necessary to prevent
meddling by other countries
• Sovereignty must be
respected if nations are to
be able to work together in
International Frameworks
• To maintain the good parts
of the NORM, we must
accept the bad (restrictions)
Against
• Sovereignty is an artifact of
history
• Should not be respected in
cases where
– Clear Humanitarian Crisis
– Does not represent the Will
of the People
– All other methods have been
tried
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Multi-Lateralism vs Unilateralism
• Unilateral vs. multilateral war: big issue in
recent years – is it legitimate for and should
countries intervene internationally on their
own? Is there a certain mandate and legitimacy
that comes with collective intervention?
• Application in debates: aside from the obvious
example of Iraq II, which was latterly unilateral, it
often arises where it’s claimed that “we can’t
wait for things to get any worse”.
• Consider issues of precedent, slippery slope, role
of the UN etc.
Debating about Invasions /
Assassinations etc
AFF
NEG
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• Throw mess around
Establish Imperative
– Identify a tipping point (why we can’t
wait)
– Last Resort (all other options have
been tried)
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Provide clear mechanism
– Outline a military strategy that will
work
• Initial conflict
• Continuing conflict (insurgency?)
– Include amnesty option for
combatants / suggest won’t fight
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Show path to a better future
– Reconstruction efforts?
– Who will take power afterwards?
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Creates important positive
precedents
– War is never clean or simple
• Civilians & Soldiers will die
– Responsibility on our hands
• Show how will mobilise
opposition
• EVEN IF invasion works
– Show most likely scenario will
be at best sub-optimal and
most likely even worse than to
start
• Undermines precedents of
international law
Chain of Command
• "An order requiring the performance of a military
duty or act may be inferred to be lawful and it is
disobeyed at the peril of the subordinate. This
inference does not apply to a patently illegal
order, such as one that directs the commission of
a crime.”
• "the justification for acts done pursuant to orders
does not exist if the order was of such a nature
that a man of ordinary sense and understanding
would know it to be illegal."
Amnesties
• How do you deal with the old guard who will
opposed change? Consider “Golden
Parachutes” of sorts.
Collective Security
• Do we need to have our own armed forces?
Soft Power vs Hard Power
• Carrot vs Stick!
• Try both
Rational vs Irrational Actors
MILITARY TECHNOLOGY
In particular looking at ‘game
changers’
Combat Drones
• Avoids risking life of
soldier – good or bad?
– Decision making
– Deployment Duration
– War Cost
• Operator driven vs fully
automated?
Satellite Weapons
• Bad Idea
• Space is a tricky place to keep clean
Bunker Busters
• Bombs such as GBU-28; over 6 m over
hardened concrete no worries
• Nuclear versions – Earth Penetrating
Weapons; up to 50 m
• Not really going to get inside a mountain… but
you might collapse some tunnels
Stealth
• U.S. Stealth Bombers
– F-117
– B-2
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• Anti-Stealth Missile Systems
– Russian S-300 and S-400 Missile System have
limited anti-stealth capability
– Potential sale to Iran stopped by latest round of
sanctions
Anti-Ballistic Missiles
• Types
– Standard SM-3 (US)
– Patriot Missile (broadly)
• Efficacy
– Limited to shorter range missiles, single warheads
– i.e. might stop Iran or NK but won’t stop Russia
• Controversy
– Undermines MAD by weakening probability of
enemy hit – implication is arms race again
TOPICS
• That international institutions should use force to restrict
the sale of small arms to African nations
• That gun ownership should be restricted to law
enforcement agencies
• That we should rely on mutual assured destruction rather
than on nuclear non-proliferation
• That the UN should hire mercenaries for military operations
• That we would create separate units for gays in the military
• That we would hold soldiers accountable for war crimes
committed while following orders
• TTHW Invade Zimbabwe